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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Tums Fast Relief 500

by Eric McClung, Special To NASCAR news, fantasy racing advice and statistics On Pit Row

Follow @ericmcclung on Twitter for NASCAR, IndyCar, golf and various other fantasy sports picks.

October 21, 2009 8:52 am CDT No Comments

The fantasy strategy at Martinsville is simple: start drivers who are great at Martinsville. Unlike a lot of other tracks, the numbers do not lie at Martinsville. The same guys tend to get to the front– and stay there. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin all have career average finishes of 8.0 or better. Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. are all between 12.1 and 13.3.

There are other short tracks on the schedule but none are close to Martinsville’s unique paper clip shape. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is essentially a bigger version of Martinsville and braking is key at both venues. New Hampshire held its second race to open the Chase.

One interesting loop data statistic from the March race at Martinsville is the number of drivers who were in the top-15 during all 500 laps; there were a total of five (Hamlin, Stewart, Gordon, Bowyer and Kevin Harvick). In 2008, only three total drivers accomplished this in either of the two races: David Ragan in March; Johnson and Carl Edwards in October.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Six-time winner at Martinsville. 11 top-fives, 14 top-10 finishes in 15 career starts. Lead an average of 173.7 laps per race and won five of the last seven Martinsville races. Won the March race. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Strong qualifier at Martinsville, won three of the last four poles. Seven-time winner (’05 sweep, ‘03 sweep, ‘99, ‘97, ‘96. Finished fourth in the March race. Top-five finishes in nine straight Martinsville races, lead an average of 100.6 laps in each. Y!-A2
3. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’06, ‘00). Better in March: ‘08 fifth/26th -place finishes; ‘07 seventh/13th-place finishes. Finished third in the March race. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Martinsville (’00, ‘92) Finished seventh in the March race, first start since ‘06. Y!-A3
5. Denny Hamlin… Won last year’s March race at Martinsville. Runner-up in this year’s March race, led 296 laps. Average finish of 3.2 over the last six Martinsville races. Y!-B2
6. Clint Bowyer… Good qualifier at Martinsville, started in the top-five two of the last three races. Average finish of 8.8 since 2007. Started third, finished fifth at Martinsville in March- both career-bests. Y!-A4
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 12.6 over five career starts at Martinsville. Finished 12th in the March race. Y!-B3
8. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 10.0 over the last four races at Martinsville. Finished 11th in the March race.
9. Ryan Newman… Finished sixth in the March race at Martinsville, average running position of 16th. Average finish of 21.0 in ‘08 races, 8.0 in ‘07. Y!-B4
10. Kurt Busch… Won at Martinsville in ‘02 but only two top-10 finishes since. Average finish of 24.0 since ‘06. Finished 18th in the March race, average running position of ninth. Y!-B5
11. Matt Kenseth… Finished 23rd at March race at Martinsville. Finished 30th and eighth last year, 7.5 average in ‘07.
12. Kyle Busch… Three top-five finishes in his first six career starts at Martinsville- average finish of 30.3 in the last three.
13. Kasey Kahne… Finished 19th in the March race at Martinsville. Last top-10 in ‘06, average finish of 21.8 since. Y!-B6
14. Marcos Ambrose… Started 24th, finished 14th in the March race, first career start at Martinsville. Y!-C1
15. Jeff Burton… Won at Martinsville in ‘97. Average finish of 10.6 since ‘07. Finished 15th in the March race.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Five finishes of eighth or better over the last seven races at Martinsville. Runner-up last year, finished eighth in the March race. Y!-B7
17. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Only two career top-10 finishes at Martinsville, two were in 2008. Finished 21st in the March race. Y!-B8
18. David Reutimann… Finished 20th in the March race at Martinsville but had an average running position of 11th; has never finished better than 17th.
19. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 20.0 over the last three Martinsville races. Finished 28th in the March race.
20. Carl Edwards… Good qualifier at Martinsville. Started fourth, finished third last year. Started fifth in March, finished 26th- average running position of 18th.
21. Brian Vickers… Finished 33rd at March race at Martinsville, average running position of 13th. Average finish of 17.0 in ‘08 races, no starts in ‘07.
22. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Finished 15th at last year’s Martinsville October race, ninth in the March race this season. Y!-C2
23. Joey Logano… Started 34th, finished 32nd in the March race, first career start at Martinsville.
24. Martin Truex Jr…. One top-10 in seven career starts at Martinsville, 23.3 average finish.
25. Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Two top-10 finishes in his last three starts at Martinsville. Finished 10th in the March race.
26. Paul Menard… Average finish of 23.0 in four career starts at Martinsville.
27. David Ragan… Finished 11th and 13th at Martinsville last year, 27th in the March race.
28. Michael Waltrip… Long shot value play. Finished 13th in the March race at Martinsville, 18th in last two October races.
29. Reed Sorenson… Finished 36th and 35th at Martinsville last year, 17th in the March race. Y!-C3
30. David Stremme… Started and finished 22nd in the March race at Martinsville.
31. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 39.6 in his last three October races at Martinsville. Finished 31st in the March race.
32. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘02. Finished 16th in the March race at Martinsville, 31.8 average finish in ‘07, ‘08 starts. Y!-C4
33. Scott Speed… Average finish of 34.5 in two career starts at Martinsville.
34. Sam Hornish Jr…. Has finished 34th in his last two starts at Martinsville.
35. Robby Gordon… Has finished 34th or worse in eight straight starts at Martinsville.
36. Travis Kvapil… Long shot value play. Average finish of 18.5 in ‘08 races at Martinsville.
37. John Andretti… Won in ‘99. Finished 35th in the March race at Martinsville, 33rd in ‘07.
38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.7 in six career starts at Martinsville.
39. Michael McDowell… Started 34th, finished 26th in last year’s March Martinsville race- first ever Cup start.
40. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. DNFs in two straight starts at Martinsville.
41. Sterling Marlin… Likely start and park. Failed to qualify in last year’s October Martinsville race.
42. Dave Blaney… DNFs in two of the last three races at Martinsville.
43. Mike Wallace… No starts at Martinsville since ‘05.
44. Derrike Cope… No starts at Martinsville since ‘05.

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