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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Pepsi 500 from Auto Club Speedway

by Eric McClung, Special To NASCAR news, fantasy racing advice and statistics On Pit Row

Follow @ericmcclung on Twitter for NASCAR, IndyCar, golf and various other fantasy sports picks.

October 7, 2009 9:09 am CDT 3 Comments

The first race at Auto Club Speedway was held back in February. But its sister track, Michigan International Speedway, held contests in June and August and make for more relevant comparisons. I have compiled a table with the average results at all three of those races. Check out my Average Finish at Similar Tracks [Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway] table.

My 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table is also very useful for planning your lineup for the rest of the season.

The results from last week’s race at Kansas Speedway, another cookie-cutter track (albeit a shorter one), should also be heavily considered when picking your lineup.
There are also several noteworthy items to cover for this week’s race:

• Brian Vickers won the pole at all three events; he also won the second MIS race. If you play Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing, or any other format that rewards top qualifiers, Vickers needs to be in your lineup.Jimmie Johnson is another driver likely to pay fantasy points for top qualifying runs, he started second, third and fourth. Kurt Busch is the only other driver to start inside the top-10 at all three races.
• Johnson ran out of fuel at the both races at MIS so his finishes look far worse than his actual performance. At both races Johnson was leading at the halfway mark and recorded the best average running position. He also led the most laps at both events.
• Jeff Gordon was the runner-up at Fontana and both MIS races. He was also runner-up last week at Kansas.
• Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin and Brain Vickers are the only other drivers with top-10 finishes in all three races.
• Mark Martin also ran out of fuel in the August race at MIS. Martin was running second midway through and ran fourth on the average during the race.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
• Risky play - Good overall history at this week’s track but poor recent finishes.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Strong qualifier. Started first or second in four straight attempts at CA. 13 career starts at CA: eight top-five finishes, average finish of 6.2. Had led an average of 98.6 laps in five straight CA races. Has won back-to-back Chase races at CA. Runner-up four times, has never finished worse than 16th. Three-time winner (’08, ‘07, ‘02). Finished ninth last week at Kansas. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Runner-up in Feb CA race, led 64 laps. He was also runner-up at both MIS races and last week at Kansas. Started third, finished 15th in last year’s Pepsi 500. Three-time winner (’04, ‘99, ‘97). Y!-A2
3. Mark Martin… DNF (engine) in Feb race, was running seventh midrace. Only raced the Feb CA races in ‘07 and ‘08, average finish of 10.5. Won in ‘98. Finished seventh last week at Kansas. Y!-A3
4. Tony Stewart… Finished eighth in Feb CA race. Average finish of 14.5 in ‘08 CA races, 10.5 in ‘07. Finished seventh and 17th at MIS. Won last week at Kansas. Y!-B1
5. Juan Pablo Montoya… Career-best 11th-place finish in Feb CA race. Finished sixth and 19th at MIS. Finished fourth last week at Kansas. Y!-B2
6. Denny Hamlin… Finished sixth in Feb CA race, career-best third in last year’s Pepsi 500. Finished third and 10th at MIS. Finished fifth last week at Kansas. Y!-B3
7. Kasey Kahne… Finished 12th in Feb CA race. Average finish of 8.5 in last year’s CA races. Finished 21st and 11th at MIS. Won in ‘06. Finished sixth last week at Kansas. Y!-B4
8. Kurt Busch… Good qualifier. Started fourth, finished fifth in Feb CA race. Average finish of 26.0 in ‘08 CA races, 8.0 in ‘07. Won in ‘03. Finished sixth and 36th at MIS. Started sixth or better at CA and both MIS races. Finished 11th last week at Kansas. Y!-B5
9. Brian Vickers… Strong qualifier. Won the pole in Feb CA race, finished 10th. Average finish of 10.2 from ‘07-’09. Finished ninth and won at MIS. Y!-B6
10. Greg Biffle… Started fifth, finished fourth in Feb CA race, led 12 laps. Runner-up in last year’s Pepsi 500, led 12 laps. Winner and runner-up in ‘05. Finished fifth and 20th at MIS. Finished better than expected at Kansas, finishing third. Y!-A4
11. Kyle Busch… Won in ‘05, all top-10 finishes in the seven CA races since, average finish of 6.3 in those races from ‘06-‘09. Started 10th, finished third in Feb CA race. Finished 13th and 23rd at MIS. Finished 12th last week at Kansas.
12. Carl Edwards… 10 career starts at CA: six top-five finishes, nine top-10 finishes, average finish of 6.7. Won in ‘08. Finished fourth at both MIS races. Finished 10th last week at Kansas.
13. Matt Kenseth… Has not finished worse than seventh in eight straight CA races, average finish of 4.25 in at span- led laps in six of those races. Three-time winner (’09, ‘07, ‘06). Finished sixth and 19th at MIS. Finished 20th and 14th at MIS.
14. David Reutimann… Average finish of 11.5 in last two CA races. Average finish of 11.8 in eight Nationwide races. Finished 19th and ninth at MIS. Finished eighth last week at Kansas. Y!-B7
15. Clint Bowyer… Started 21st, finished 19th in Feb CA race. Finished 10th and eighth at MIS.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Risky play. 15 career starts at CA: average finish of 21.9. Has only seven led-lap finishes, average finish of 7.1 in those races. Y!-B8
17. Ryan Newman… Last eight CA races: one top-10 finish, average finish of 22.0. Finished 23rd and 15th at MIS.
18. Kevin Harvick… Strong value play. DNF (accident) in Feb CA race. Average finish of 6.0 in ‘08 CA races, 15.5 in ‘07.
19. Marcos Ambrose… Strong value play. Started 14th, finished 22nd in Feb CA race. Average finish of 18.8 in four career Nationwide races at CA ‘07-’08. Finished 14th last week at Kansas. Y!-C1
20. Joey Logano… Started 34th, finished 26th in Feb CA race, first career Cup start at Auto Club Speedway. Average start 5.0, finish 4.5 in two career Nationwide races at CA ‘08-’09.
21. Jeff Burton… Started 41st, finished 32nd in Feb CA race. Average finish of 14.5 in ‘08 CA races, 4.0 in ‘07- laps led in all four races.
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Started 33rd, finished 27th in Feb CA race. Average finish of 12.5 in ‘08 CA races.
23. AJ Allmendinger… Weak value play. Started eighth, finished 29th in Feb CA race. Average finish of 16.0 in ‘08 CA races. Y!-C2
24. Sam Hornish Jr…. Weak value play. Started 26th, finished a career-best 23rd in Feb CA race. Average start 5.0, average finish 2.8, two wins in four IndyCar races at CA. Y!-C3
25. Casey Mears… Finished 24th in Feb CA race. He finished 15th at Kansas- and you all said I was crazy for suggesting him for One and Done!
26. Jamie McMurray… Started third, finished 16th in Feb CA race. Average finish of 23.0 in ‘08 CA races, lost track position on both of those races as well.
27. Elliott Sadler… Zero top-10 finishes at CA since ‘06. Finished 25th in Feb, average finish of 29.0 in ‘08 races. Won in ‘04.
28. David Ragan… Long shot value play. Started a career-best 13th in Feb CA race, finished a career-worst 17th. Average finish of 14.4 in five career starts at Auto Club Speedway. Finished a career-best fifth in the Feb Nationwide race.
29. David Stremme… Long shot value play. Started 38th, finished a career-best 13th in Feb CA race.
30. Michael Waltrip… Long shot value play. Started 42nd, finished 15th in Feb CA race- best finish at Auto Club Speedway since ‘05.
31. Scott Speed… Started ninth, DNF (engine) in Feb CA race, first career start at Auto Club Speedway. Y!-C4
32. Bobby Labonte… Started 16th, finished 20th in Feb CA race. Average finish of 23.0 in ‘08 CA races.
33. Reed Sorenson… Started a career-best 17th in Feb CA race, tied a career-best with 21st-place finish.
34. Robby Gordon… Started 12th, finished 30th in Feb CA race.
35. Paul Menard… Has finished 37th in back-to-back CA races.
36. John Andretti… Last three races at CA: average start 41.7, average finish 34.3, laps led 1.3.
37. David Gilliland… Started 32nd, finished 33rd in Feb CA race.
38. Regan Smith… Did not start in Feb race at Auto Club Speedway. Average finish of 33.5 at CA last year.
39. Michael McDowell… No career Cup starts at Auto Club Speedway. Started third, DNF (accident) in Feb Nationwide race at CA.
40. Joe Nemechek… Last finished last in three of the last four CA races.
41. Dave Blaney… Start and park. Finished 42nd in Feb CA race.
42. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Auto Club Speedway. Started and finished 10th at the Feb Truck Series race.
43. Tony Raines… Start and park. No Cup starts at Auto Club Speedway since ‘07.
44. Mike Bliss… Start and park. No Cup starts at Auto Club Speedway since ‘05.
45. Mike Wallace… Start and park. No Cup starts at Auto Club Speedway since ‘05.

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