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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

by Eric McClung, Special To NASCAR news, NASCAR statistics, NASCAR commentary On Pit Row

http://twitter.com/ericmcclung

November 11, 2009 11:25 am CST No Comments

Over the last nine races this season, three have been on flat tracks. Thus far there has been a total of seven races on flat tracks. This gives fantasy owners a very clear idea on the top options for this weekend’s race at Phoenix International Raceway. I’ve created another NASCAR Fantasy Tool, 2009 Average Finish at Flat Tracks. Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway all vary in length but their banking in the corners is similar and are all, of course, flat.

Mark Martin and Denny Hamlin each have two wins on flat tracks. Kyle Busch owns a victory and has three straight top-fives on flat tracks. Tony Stewart began the season with four top-fives on flat tracks but an average finish on 13.3 on the last three. Ryan Newman has three straight top-10s; Brian Vickers has three straight of 11 or better. Sam Hornish Jr. put together a streak of four top-10s but was a disaster in the other three.

Chasing the pole at Phoenix

1. Mark Martin… In April, Martin from the pole and has won a total of seven poles this season, one being Richmond. He started fourth just three weeks ago at Martinsville.
2. Jimmie Johnson… Johnson won last year’s O’RAP 500 from the pole. The rest of Johnson’s starting numbers at Phoenix are decent: fifth and six in ‘07, seventh in 4/08 and he started 10th back in April.
3. Jeff Gordon… Gordon has started inside the top-10 for six of the seven flat track races this season. He has started inside the top-10 this season for 10 straight races.
4. Kurt Busch… Started third in April and in last year’s O’RAP 500. He has started inside the top-10 at Phoenix in seven of his last eight attempts.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Phoenix (4/09, ‘93). Average finish of 8.0 in four starts since ‘07. Best average finish (5.7) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Phoenix (’08 sweep, ‘07). Has never finished worse than 15th in 12 career starts– fourth or better in six straight, seventh or better in eight straight. Finished fourth in April. Tenth-best average finish (9.6) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A2
3. Denny Hamlin… Five finishes of six or better at Phoenix over the last six races, average finish of 6.0 in that span. Average finish of 4.0 last year. Finished sixth in April. Second-best average finish (5.9) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B1
4. Tony Stewart… Won at Phoenix in ‘99. Average finish of 18.0 last year, 3.0 in ‘07. Runner-up in April. Third-best average finish (7.4) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B2
5. Kurt Busch… Won at Phoenix in ‘05, runner-up in last year’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500- led 60 laps. Finished third in April. Fourth-best average finish (8.7) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B3
6. Jeff Gordon… Won at Phoenix in 4/07, finished 10th in 11/07 race. Finished 13th in last year’s April race, DNF (engine) in November. Fifth-best average finish (8.9) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A3
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 16.5 at Phoenix last year. Average finish of 11.9 at flat tracks this season, 3.0 in the last two. Y!-B4
8. Kyle Busch… Won at Phoenix in ‘05. Average finish of 10.0 since ‘07 (five races). Sixth-best average finish (9.0) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A4
9. Ryan Newman… DNF (engine), 34th-place finish last year. Finished 38th and fifth in ‘07. Finished 16th in April. Average finish of 11.3 at flat tracks this season. Y!-B5
10. Carl Edwards… Finished fourth at Phoenix in both races last year, ninth in April. Seven top-10s in 10 career starts.
11. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 16.5 at Phoenix last year. Finished fifth in April.
12. Brian Vickers… Only one top-10 (’05) at Phoenix in 10 career starts. Average finish of 12.0 in ‘06, 21.6 since (not counting crash last year). Y!-B7
13. Kasey Kahne… Has finished 13th at Phoenix in consecutive races, no top-10s since ‘06. Y!-B8
14. Clint Bowyer… Runner-up in last year’s April race, 12th in November. Average finish of 14.9 at flat tracks this season.
15. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner at Phoenix (’01, ‘00). Has not finished worse than 15th since ‘97 (17 races). Average finish of 7.5 last year, 11.0 in ‘07. 9.5 in ‘06.
16. Kevin Harvick… Two-time winner at Phoenix (’06 sweep). Average finish of 10.5 in ‘07-’08.
17. Matt Kenseth… Won at Phoenix in ‘02. Average finish of 4.0 in ‘07, 26.6 in the three races since.
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Two-time winner at Phoenix (’04, ‘03). Average finish of 6.5 last year. Finished 31st, ran 18th in April.
19. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 16.0 at Phoenix in two career starts. Y!-C1
20. David Reutimann… Average finish of 21.5 at Phoenix last year. Started and finished a career-best eighth in April.
21. Joey Logano… Started 31st, finished 21st in April– first career start at Phoenix.
22. Brad Keselowski… Strong value play. No career Cup starts at Phoenix. Third in the April Nationwide race. Y!-C2
23. Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished 23rd at Phoenix in both ‘07 races, 10.3 in the three races since. Finished third in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, 11th in April.
24. Martin Truex Jr…. Strong value play. Average finish of 7.3 at Phoenix in three of the last four races, not counting a DNF (overheating) in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Average finish of 17.0 in seven career starts. Finished seventh in April.
25. Casey Mears… Zero top-10s at Phoenix in 11 career starts, 27.3 average finish.
26. Sam Hornish Jr…. Weak value play. Finished a career-best ninth at Phoenix in April, but had an average running position of 23rd. Average finish of 27.6 in three previous career starts. Y!-C3
27. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Average finish of 14.3 at Phoenix from ‘07-’08. Y!-C4
28. AJ Allmendinger… Average finish of 25.5 at Phoenix in two career starts.
29. David Ragan… Finished a career-best 10th at Phoenix in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, 27th in the April race.
30. Reed Sorenson… Finished a career-best 12th at Phoenix in April. DNF (crash) and 31st-place finish last year. Average finish of 17.0 in ‘07.
31. Regan Smith… Long shot value play. Average finish of 28.7 at Phoenix in three career starts.
32. Paul Menard… Zero top-20 finishes at Phoenix in five career starts, 23.4 average finish.
33. Michael Waltrip… Finished 24th at Phoenix in both races last year.
34. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 28.8 at Phoenix since ‘07 (five races).
35. Elliott Sadler… Only one top-10 (’02) at Phoenix in 15 career starts. Finished 11th in both ‘05 races, average finish of 31.1 in the seven races since.
36. Scott Speed… Average finish of 37.0 at Phoenix in two career starts.
37. John Andretti… Started 41st, finished 38th at Phoenix in April, first start since ‘04. Average finish of 12.0 in four CART Series races (’88-’92).
38. Brandon Ash… No career Cup starts at Phoenix. Average finish of 10.9 in seven career Truck Series West races (’98-’05).
39. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Phoenix.
40. Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Phoenix.
41. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts.
42. David Gilliland… Possible start and park. Started 27th, finished 33rd at Phoenix in April.
43. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park. Started 29th, finished 34rd in April of last year– first career start at Phoenix.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Finished 41st at Phoenix in April.
45. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park. Finished 42nd at Phoenix in April.
46. Tony Raines… Likely start and park. Finished 43rd at Phoenix in April.

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