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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Carfax 400 from Michigan Speedway

by Eric McClung, Special To NASCAR news, fantasy racing advice and statistics On Pit Row

Follow @ericmcclung on Twitter for NASCAR, IndyCar, golf and various other fantasy sports picks.

August 11, 2010 12:50 pm CDT No Comments

The NASCAR Sprint Cup circuit returns to the 2.0-mile, D-shaped oval track at Michigan International Speedway for the second time this season. In addition to the June race at MIS, review the results from Auto Club Speedway. Fontana has less banking but is the only other 2.0-mile track on the schedule. The most recent intermediate race was held at Chicagoland Speedway, which has very similar banking to MIS.
Fuel mileage has created a lot of luck in both directions for drivers at Michigan, so pay close attention to loop data statistics like average running position over basics such as Top Fives and Top 10s.

Chasing the pole at Michigan International Speedway

1. Kurt Busch… Won the pole in March, started fifth and sixth last year.
2.  Jamie McMurray… Started second in March. Won the pole at Fontana and and Chicagoland.
3. Jimmie Johnson… Started third in March, third and fourth last year. Started second at Chicagoland.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings

•  Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
•  Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1.  Jeff Gordon… Two-time winner (6/01, 8/98) at Michigan, runner-up in both ‘09 races, finished fourth in June. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Average running position of fifth or better in six of the last nine races at Michigan, ran second and third last year- led 279 of 400 laps. Finished sixth in June. Y!-A2
3. Kurt Busch… Two-time winner (8/07, 6/03) at Michigan. Won the pole in June, finished in third. Y!-A3
4. Denny Hamlin… Won June race at Michigan, led 123 of 200 laps. Finished third and 10th last year. Y!-A4
5. Carl Edwards… Two-time winner (8/08, 6/07) at Michigan, average finish of 6.6 in 12 career starts.
6. Greg Biffle… Two-time winner (6/05, 8/04) at Michigan, Top 10s in three of the last four, two Top Fives.
7. Kevin Harvick… Nine straight Top 20s at Michigan. Y!-B1
8. Tony Stewart… Won 6/00 race at Michigan, six Top Fives, eight Top 10s in the last 11 starts.
9. Kasey Kahne… Won 6/06 race at Michigan, runner-up in June. Has spent over 85 percent of laps running in the Top 15 in three of the last five. Y!-B2
10. Jeff Burton… Finished eighth in June race at Michigan, first Top 10 since 8/02. Average finish of 15.9 in 33 career starts. Y!-B3
11. Clint Bowyer… Two Top 10s in ‘09 at Michigan, finished 22nd in June. Y!-B4
12. Kyle Busch… Finished 20th or worse in the last two starts at Michigan, average running position of ninth or better in five straight prior.
13. Matt Kenseth… Two-time winner (8/06, 6/02) at Michigan, finished 14th in the last two. Y!-B5.
14. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average running position of 15th or better in three straight starts at Michigan.
15. A.J. Allmendinger… Strong value play. Finished a career-high 11th in June at Michigan. Y!-C1
16. Jamie McMurray… Average finish of 19.3 in 15 career starts at Michigan.
17. Mark Martin… Three-time winner (6/09, 6/98, 8/97, 8/93, 8/90) at Michigan. Finished 16th in June, average running position of 22nd. Ran 10th and fourth last year.
18. Joey Logano… Strong value play. Two straight Top 10s at Michigan, average running position of 11th and 15th. Y!-B6
19. Ryan Newman… Two-time winner (6/04, 8/03) at Michigan, no Top 10s since. Average running position of 16th in June, finished 32nd. Y!-B7
20. Dale Earnhardt, Jr…. Won race 6/08 at Michigan- average running position of 17th or better in 10 straight, three straight Top 15s. Y!-B8
21. David Reutimann… Four straight Top 20s at Michigan.
22. Martin Truex, Jr…. Average finish of 17.4 in nine career starts at Michigan.
23. Sam Hornish, Jr…. Average finish of 20.8 in five career starts at Michigan. Y!-C2
24. Paul Menard… Average finish of 23.9 in eight career starts at Michigan. Y!-C3
25. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 22.2 in 23 career starts at Michigan.
26. Brad Keselowski… Average finish of 25.5 in two career starts at Michigan.
27. Marcos Ambrose… Finished a career-best 15th in June race at Michigan, average running position of 25th.
28. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 28.0 in ‘09 races at Michigan. Y!-C4
29. Bill Elliott… Seven-time winner (6/89, 8/87, ‘86 sweep, ‘85 sweep, 6/84) at Michigan. Finished 16th in both races last year, 29th in June.
30. David Ragan… Finished 30th or worse in last two starts at Michigan.
31. Regan Smith… Finished 23rd in June race at Michigan.
32. Scott Speed… Average finish of 33.0 in three career starts at Michigan, no lead lap finishes.
33. Bobby Labonte… Three-time winner (8/99, ‘95 sweep) at Michigan, finished 27th or worse in five straight.
34. Travis Kvapil… Finished 31st in June race at Michigan.
35. Robby Gordon… Finished 33rd in June race at Michigan.
36. David Gilliland… Finished 35th in June race at Michigan.
37. Kevin Conway… DNF (engine) in June race at Michigan.
38. Casey Mears… Likely start and park.
39. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park.
40. J.J. Yeley… Likely start and park.
41. Landon Cassill… Likely start and park.
42. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
43. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park.
44. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
45. Tony Raines… Likely start and park.
46. TBA (Germain Racing)… Likely start and park.
47. TBA (Latitude 43 Motorsports)… Likely start and park.

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