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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Bank of America 500 from Lowes

by Eric McClung, Special To NASCAR news, fantasy racing advice and statistics On Pit Row

Follow @ericmcclung on Twitter for NASCAR, IndyCar, golf and various other fantasy sports picks.

October 14, 2009 8:44 am UTC 1 Comment

With two points-paying races per year, the Showdown and the All-Star Race, there is no shortage of data to analyze for Lowe’s Motor Speedway. Plus its 1.5-mile quad-oval configuration is similar to that of Atlanta Motor Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway. I have put together a table with the average finishes from the two Atlanta races plus the events held at Texas and Lowe’s earlier in the year. Check my NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks – Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s here.

Four drivers averaged a finish better than 10.0 in those four races: Jeff Gordon (6.3), Brian Vickers (8.3), Kasey Kahne (8.5) and Matt Kenseth (9.8). Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart both averaged 10.5.
Keep in mind the May race at Lowe’s was called early due to rain. David Reutimann, Ryan Newman and Robby Gordon finished in the top-three but had a combined average running position of 17.0. The race had only six caution laps, ending a streak nine races with at least 10 cautions.

Because the track is prone to mishaps, fantasy owners in allocation formats should consider saving their remaining starts of elite drivers for next week’s race at Martinsville Speedway, where the cream rises to the top. Talladega Superspeedway and Texas will follow; Dega is another race to save starts. The results of his week’s race will be important for setting the lineup for Texas.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier – History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier – History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play – Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
• Risky play - Good overall history at this week’s track but poor recent finishes.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Strong qualifier at Lowe’s, three poles including last year. Five-time winner (’03, ’04 sweep, ’05 sweep). Runner-up in both ’06 races. 12.0 average finish in ’07 races. DNF (engine) and sixth-place finish in 08. Started fifth in May race, finished 13th but an average running position of fifth. Has led laps in 15 of 16 career starts at Lowe’s. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Five-time winner at Lowe’s (’94, ’97, ’98, ’99, ’07) Seven poles (none since ’00) Average finish of 6.0 in ’08. Started third, finished 14th in May. Started fourth, finished eighth in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-A2
3. Mark Martin… Four-time winner at Lowe’s (’92, ’95, ’98, ’02) Two poles (’91). Since ’07: 9.6 average start, 13.6 average finish. Finished fifth in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-A3
4. Juan Pablo Montoya… Started ninth, finished eighth at May Lowe’s race, career bests. Finished third in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B1
5. Tony Stewart… Won at Lowe’s in ’03. Average finish of 6.5 in ’07. 14.5 last year, led an average of 32.5 laps. Started 28th, finished 19th in May. Finished 11th in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B2
6. Kasey Kahne… Three-time winner at Lowe’s (’06 sweep, ’08) Winner, runner-up in ’08 races. Started sixth, finished ninth at May race. Started second, won the Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B3
7. Carl Edwards… Average finish of 10.0 in nine career starts at Lowe’s- only one finish worse than 15th, 33rd at last year’s Chase race. Y!-A4
8. Greg Biffle… Average start 3.5, average finish 4.5 in ’08 races at Lowe’s. Started 16th, finished 20th in May. Finished 10th in Sep Atlanta race.
9. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 20.0 in ’08 Lowe’s races. Finished 11th in May race at Lowe’s. Finished sixth in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B4
10. Kurt Busch… Finished 34th at Lowe’s in May but an average running position of 13th. Average finish of 9.5 in ’08. No finish better than 26th from ’06-’07. Y!-B5
11. Ryan Newman… Strong qualifier, eight poles at Lowe’s including the May race. Won both poles in ’07 (DNFs in both). Average start of 27.0 last year, finished 21st in both. Runner-up in May race but had an average running position of 16th. Finished third in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B6
12. Brian Vickers… Led an average of 58.5 laps over the last four Lowe’s starts. Finished fifth in only ’07 start at Lowe’s. DNF (crash) and 18th place finish in ’08. Started eighth, finished fifth at May Lowe’s race. Finished seventh in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B7
13. David Reutimann… Won the May race at Lowe’s but had an average running position of 12th. Finished 10th in last year’s May race, finished 32nd in last race’s Oct race but had an average running position of 19th. Finished fourth in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-B8
14. Kyle Busch… Led at least one lap in eight of the last nine Lowe’s races. Average finish of 4.0 over the last four races at Lowe’s. Started second, finished six and led 173 of 227 laps at May Lowe’s race- average running position of second. Finished 13th in Sep Atlanta race.
15. Matt Kenseth… Won at Lowe’s in ’00. Started 30th, finished 10th in May race. ’07-’08: two DNFs, seventh and 12th-place finishes. Finished 12th in Sep Atlanta race.
16. Clint Bowyer… Runner-up in 10/07 race at Lowe’s but average finish of 24.3 in the three races since. Finished 36th in May.
17. Kevin Harvick… Only three top-10 finishes in 17 career starts at Lowe’s, two came as a rookie ’01. Average finish of 13.5 in ’08 races. Started 22nd, finished 41st in May race. Runner-up in Sep Atlanta race.
18. Bobby Labonte… Strong value play. Two-time winner at Lowe’s (’95, ’00) Has not finished worse than 18th since ’98. Average finish of 13.0 since ’07. Finished 12th in May race, 18th in Sep Atlanta race. Y!-C1
19. Joey Logano… Started 14th, finished ninth in May race- first career Cup start at Lowe’s. Finished fifth in May Nationwide race at Lowe’s. Finished fifth in the Showdown, eighth in the All-Star Race.
20. Sam Hornish Jr…. Strong value play. Average finish of 17.0 at Lowe’s since ’08. Finished 35th in Sep Atlanta race. Won the Showdown. Y!-C2
21. Jeff Burton… Three-time winner at Lowe’s (’99, ’01, ’08) Started 40th, finished 25th in May race. Five finishes of sixth or better in the seven races since ’06.
22. Marcos Ambrose… Started 23rd, finished 26th in May race- first career Cup start at Lowe’s. Average finish of 14.5 in ’08 Nationwide races. Y!-C3
23. Casey Mears… Won at Lowe’s in ’07 but an average finish of 28.0 in the four races since.
24. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Finished fifth and led 76 laps in last year’s May race at Lowe’s, 36th in the Oct race. Finished 40th in May race.
25. David Stremme… Weak value play. Average finish of 13.0 in ’07 races at Lowe’s. Started 35th, finished 22nd in May race. Finished 14th in Sep Atlanta race. Finished third in the Showdown.
26. Martin Truex Jr…. Average finish of 23.6 at Lowe’s since ’08. Won the pole, finished 26th in Sep Atlanta race.
27. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Two-time winner at Lowe’s (’84, ’87) Started 10th, finished 15th at the May race. Y!-C4
28. AJ Allmendinger… Finished 20th, DNF (crash) in last year’s races at Lowe’s- 32nd in May race.
29. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup stars at Lowe’s. Average finish of 6.3 in ’08-’09 Nationwide races at Lowe’s.
30. Jamie McMurray… Won as a rookie in ’02 at Lowe’s. Finished fifth in last year’s Oct race, 21st in May race.
31. Robby Gordon… DNF, 30th in last year’s races at Lowe’s. Finished third in the May race but had an average running position of 16th in May race. Finished 16th in Sep Atlanta race.
32. David Ragan… Average finish of 11.0 in last year’s races at Lowe’s. Started 34th, finished 24th in May race.
33. Scott Speed… Started and finished 18th in May race, first career Cup start at Lowe’s. Started 14th, finished 11th in May Nationwide race at Lowe’s.
34. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 19.6 at Lowe’s since ’08. Finished 21st in Sep Atlanta race.
35. Michael Waltrip… Average finish of 27.0 at Lowe’s since ’08. Finished 32nd in Sep Atlanta race.
36. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 18.5 in last year’s races at Lowe’s. Started 42nd, finished 35th in May race.
37. Paul Menard… DNF (overheating) and 26th in last year’s races at Lowe’s. Finished 29th in the May race, 15th in Sep Atlanta race.
38. Travis Kvapil… Finished 26th, DNF (crash) in ’08. Only four Cup starts this season. Average finish of 10.8 in four Truck series starts (’03-’08) at Lowe’s.
39. John Andretti… No Cup starts at Lowe’s since ’07.
40. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.6 at Lowe’s since ’08.
41. Dave Blaney… Average finish of 24.0 at Lowe’s since ’08.
42. Max Papis… Started 32nd, finished 42nd at the May race, first career Cup start at Lowe’s.
43. Terry Labonte… No Cup starts at Lowe’s since ’06.
44. Joe Nemechek… Finished 37th in May race at Lowe’s and last year’s Oct race.
45. Mike Bliss… Started seventh in the May race at Lowe’s, start and parked- first Cup start at Lowe’s since ’06.
46. Sterling Marlin… Likely start and park. Won in ’01. Only six Cup starts this season. Started 26th, finished 31st in last year’s May race.
47. Michael McDowell… No career Cup stars at Lowe’s. Started sixth, finished 20th in May Nationwide race at Lowe’s.
48. Mike Wallace… Likely start and park. Started 40th, finished 31st in last year’s Oct race at Lowe’s. DNQ for seven of nine Cup races this season.

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