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Who is the real Tony Stewart and will he be the one that shows up Sunday for round one of NASCAR’s Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship?

Stewart had perhaps his best race of the 2008 Sprint Cup season at Richmond, grabbing second behind red hot Jimmy Johnson.

But Smoke was smokin’ after the finish and got into a widely publicized snit with long-time crew chief Greg Zipadelli, over Stewart’s displeasure with the team’s pit performance. 

These are ultra-competitve folks we’re talking about and the heat of the moment can cause things to be said that aren’t meant.  It isn’t hard to find justification for blowing this off as just a “racin’ deal”.  But the no. 20 team has struggled in 2008 and remains win-less.  Makes you wonder if the chemistry is off.

Stewart has strong stats going into the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  In the seven previous races that make up the NASCAR Loop Data era, Tony has the best cumulative Driver Rating - 118.6.  He has led more laps - 604 or more than twice as many as second best Kevin Harvick - and been passed fewer times under green conditions than any other driver.  And if you take an average of his Driver Ratings for Loudon and for the 2008 season over-all, Stewart still would have the best score - 107.2.  Stewart is a two-time winner and has ten top fives in 19 New Hampshire races. 

Combined stats give the race a different look 

After 24 races in the 2007 Sprint Cup season, Jeff Gordon had a 349 point lead on second place Tony Stewart.  Gordon was 523 points clear of eventual champion Jimmy Johnson.  Many forget how dominant Gordon’s regular season was in ‘07.  That dominance explains, somewhat, why his Loop numbers are so high for many of these tracks.  New Hampshire Motor Speedway is one of them.  Gordon has the second best Driver Rating -108.7 - he’s run a staggering 1855 laps in the top 15 (88.7 percent) and he has the top Ave Mid-race and over-all position stats.  Gordon’s season-to-date DR is 95.1 and his Driver Rating Ave is 101.9.    The three time winner has 12 top fives and 15 top tens at NHMS. 

Gordon was the man to beat in early 2007.  So far, 2008 has been a three horse race.  Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards took turns chewing up the competition through the first twenty or so races.  Jimmy Johnson has come on of late. 

Only Johnson and Busch have top ten Driver Ratings at NHMS.  J J is seventh best with a 98.3 score.  But his season-to-date DR is third best - 103.9 - for an average of 101.1.  Johnson is a double winner here with three top fives and eight top tens. 

Kyle Busch has the top Driver Rating in 2008 - 111.8.  He has led more laps - 1633 or 21.8 percent of all 2008 Sprint Cup Series laps - run more laps in the top 15 and has the best Average Position, Mid-race Position and Average finish so far in 2008.  The Shrub is only ninth best at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loop stats.  He has one win to go with 3 top fives and a combined DR  of 102.2.

Can Cousin Carl?

By stats alone, Carl Edwards doesn’t look like the pick this week. Edwards is 17th in Driver Rating at Loudon - 83.1.  He is win-less, with one top five finish and has only led 2 laps ever at NHMS.  Even his second best season-to-date DR of 105.6 only takes his average up to 94.4, almost 13 full points lower than Tony Stewart.  If you pick Carl to win, you are bucking the numbers, big time.

The only other driver with a DR average above 100 is Dale Earnhardt Jr.   Junior’s NHMS Dr of 100.1 combined with a fourth best season-to-date DR of 101.3 gives an average of 100.7.  Earnhardt has four career top fives and seven top tens but he hasn’t won at Loudon.

Jeff Burton isn’t win-less though.  Burton has four victories, seven top fives and 12 top tens on the fast track.  His Loudon Driver Rating is 94.6 and average DR is 91.7.   It’s just so hard to pick Burton to win.

Denny Hamlin has the best Loop era Average Finish - 6.8 - at NHMS.  He owns a win and four top tens in five career attempts and Denny is coming off a strong third place last week at Richmond International Raceway.  Here is a trivial fact for you.  Hamlin leads the Quality Passes stats for both season-to-date and the Loudon track.  Track position?  He don’t need no stinkin’ track position.

I’m picking Tony Stewart.  The hunch here is that the dust up after the Richmond race has been smoothed over.  It was good to see Smoke still has the fire.  My upset pick has to be one of the DEI cars.  Martin Truex Jr has the slightly better Driver Rating for NHMS but Mark Martin has the better average.  I’ll take Martin -  Mark, not Truex.  

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media , Inc.

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