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Championship Changes Come in the Chase’s Round 4

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

October 1, 2008 9:32 pm CDT No Comments

Want to avoid big wrecks at Talladega Superspeedway?  Run up front.  If you can’t run up front, stay out of the pack as long as possible.

That’s the concensus of the opinions I’ve surveyed this week.  On our INSIDE ARCA radio show Tuesday night I asked our ARCA Insider,  Speed TV commentator and former Cup Series winner at Talladega, Phil Parsons how he would try to avoid the Big One.  Run up front, Phil said.

Later I asked  Patrick Donahue, crew chief for the Red Bull Toyota of Scott Speed and former member of the Jeff Gordon’s Rainbow Warriors, what advice he gives his “Dega drivers.  Patrick said, run up front.

Nine time ARCA RE/MAX Series champion and ARCA-Talladega winner,  Frank Kimmel said much the same.   At Talladega, whenever possible, get to the front. Early.  And stay there.

Six time Talladega Cup race winner Jeff Gordon agrees but did say that if you do get shuffled out of the lead, you have to look at the situation and decide if there are enough laps left for you to clear yourself of the pack and just ride around until the closing stages of the race before making your move.  This isn’t Gordon’s preferred strategy, but it is the one he used last year to win the race.

It’s a Gordon thing

Jeff Gordon’s six wins is a pretty good resume at any track.  The only driver with more at Talladega is the late Dale Earnhardt with ten.  Jeff Gordon has the best Loop Driver Rating for ‘Dega and only one guy has a better Ave Driver Rating - taking the season-to-date Dr and averaging it with the track specific stat.  And Gordon has run up front, leading a category best 301 laps (22.7 percent) in the last seven Talladega races.  Jeffy has the third best Ave Running Position for ‘Dega and the fourth best for the 2008 season.  Gordon is 113 points behind Jimmy Johnson.  He knows that he needs wins.  Jeff Gordon is the favorite this week.

Tony Stewart hasn’t done much to inspire confidence in him as a winner pick.  Tony and the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing trio have, for all intents, raced themselves out of the Sprint Cup championship picture.  But Stewart’s pack leader stats are strong and his history at Talladega, though winless, has been good.   His 94.4 ‘Dega Driver Rating trails only Gordon and Denny Hamlin.  Smoke has the best Ave Running Postion in the Alabama Loop races. 

Don’t forget the ex-champs

Kurt Busch runs up front too.  His Ave Finish of 10.6 is tops for Talladega.  Like Stewart, big Busch has great stats but no wins in the Cup Series at Talladega.  Also like Smoke, Kurt’s 2008 season makes picking him anywhere to win,  a stretch.  It could happen.  But you better get good odds to bet on it.

If there is a logical, stat based, alternative to Gordon as the pick to win this restrictor plate race, that pick would be Jimmy Johnson.  You would not be wrong to pick J J this week - maybe any week.  He has the best season-to-date Ave Running Position, the sixth best ‘Dega DR and the top DR average at 96.7.  He also won the last race at Kansas.  Johnson leads the points race and he’s been here before.

Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Greg Biffle haven’t been very good at Talladega,  Even combing their 2008 DR stats with the Talladega Loop data doesn’t pardon all of their sins.  All three have Ave DRs under 90.  Biffle’s is a dismal 81.8   Lightning in a bottle?  That would be an upset more special than anything Jimmy the Greek has cooked up.

The best bets for upset are Brian Vickers and Jamie McMurray.  Jamie’s DR is fourth best.  Vickers is fifth.  Brian is on an upswing.  Jamie - not so much.

I’ll take Gordon with Brian Vickers getting the nod as best dark-horse pick to win.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008, Talladega Superspeedway 

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