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Can Kasey Kahne Upset the Chasers?

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by Charlie Turner

Thanks for stopping by OnPitRow.com and the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. The best NASCAR and IndyCar news and opinion, exclusive pictures and video. I'm Charlie Turner. Follow me on Twitter @onpitrow

October 8, 2008 9:26 pm CDT No Comments

Jimmy Johnson has a grip on Lowes Motor Speedway and NASCAR’s intermediate tracks in general.  In the last five years, Johnson has won 14 of the 75 I-track races, finished in the top five 37 times and been top ten 51 times.  He’s won five of his 14 starts at Lowe’s - leading all active drivers - and has eight top fives with eleven top tens. And Jimmy has the top Loop Data Driver Rating for the track as well - 116.5. That’s good. Real good.

But Johnson hasn’t won them all.  In fact Kasey Kahne is going for the three race 2008 sweep at Lowes. Kahne won the non-points all-star race and the Coca Cola 600 back in May. He holds the third best Loop DR - 98.4 - and is a seven time winner on intermediates the last five years.  Kasey’s out of the Chase and non-Chasers don’t win many Chase races.  But Kahne has led more laps - 404 which is over 15 percent of the last seven races at the track - he has the second most Fastest Laps Run and Green Flag Passes.  Kasey could pull the upset.

Roush-Fenway May Have a Say-So Too

If Carl Edwards wins it could hardly be called an upset.  Carl is one of the Chasers who still has a chance to haul Johnson in.  Edwards actually has the best Ave Finish in Lowes last seven races - 7.6 - and is the leader in Green Flag Passes.  Carl’s another seven time I-track winner the last five years and has 31 top fives and 46 top tens on intermediates.

Roush-Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle has a great record on I-tracks with 12 wins and 28 top fives. He has also won two of the four 2008 Chase races.  Biffle’s Charlotte DR is eighth best at 87.0 with no stat stomping scores in individual categories.

Is the Shrub Back?

Watch Kyle Busch this week. The Shrub may be ready to check back in to the 2008 season after some uncharacteristically poor performances lately. Rowdy owns the second best Driver Rating at 98.7 and five I-track wins overall.  

Dale Earnhardt Jr has a top five Loop DR - fifth best 89.7 - but only three career I-track wins. Maybe some of Johnson’s Lowes success will rub off on his Hendrick Motorsports teammate.  Junior’s stats don’t jump out at you.

Talladega winner, Tony Stewart has gone on late season win streaks before. But he hasn’t won much on intermediate tracks.  His DR at Lowes is only 14th best - 80.0. I would more expect a let down after the big Talladega win than a streak.

I’m picking Jimmy Johnson. He has that look again and I think the 48 team will be relentless as they push for their third straight Cup.  The darkhorse pick this week is Kahne.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, Lowe's Motor Speedway, NASCAR, NASCAR Loop Data, Nascar Chase 2008 

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