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2009 Average Finish at Flat Tracks - Martinsville, Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Below are 24 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish this season at four flat tracks: Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

The four flat tracks vary in length but do feature similar banking. Over the last nine races this season, three have been on flat tracks: Richmond is a little shorter (0.75 miles) and banked 14 degrees; New Hampshire is a little longer (1.06 miles) and most recently, Martinsville which is much shorter (0.53 miles) both are banked 12 degrees. Phoenix is 1.00 miles and banked 11 degrees and held its first race in April, the eighth race of the season.

	MVILLE 1	PHX	Rich 1	NH 1	RICH 2	NH 2	MVILLE2	AVG
Mark Martin	7	1	5	14	4	1	8	5.7
Denny Hamlin	2	6	14	15	1	2	1	5.9
Tony Stewart	3	2	2	5	17	14	9	7.4
Kurt Busch	18	3	12	3	2	6	17	8.7
Jeff Gordon	4	25	8	2	3	15	5	8.9
Kyle Busch	24	17	1	7	5	5	4	9
Jimmie Johnson	1	4	36	9	11	4	2	9.6
Ryan Newman	6	16	4	29	10	7	7	11.3
Juan Pablo Montoya	12	24	10	12	19	3	3	11.9
Clint Bowyer	5	26	18	20	6	10	19	14.9
David Reutimann	20	8	28	4	20	12	16	15.4
Jamie McMurray	10	11	7	33	27	18	6	16.0
Jeff Burton	15	15	3	31	18	16	15	16.1
Greg Biffle	28	5	17	18	13	9	25	16.4
Joey Lagano	32	21	19	1	14	21	12	17.1
Casey Mears	21	20	9	11	30	13	18	17.4
Brian Vickers	33	19	15	35	7	11	11	18.7
Marcos Ambrose	14	14	11	23	22	20	27	18.7
Carl Edwards	26	10	26	19	15	17	20	19.0
Sam Hornish, Jr.	34	9	6	8	8	37	36	19.7
Matt Kenseth	23	27	13	22	25	23	14	21.0
Kasey Kahne	19	13	29	10	12	38	32	21.9
Kevin Harvick	11	30	34	34	9	32	10	22.9
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	8	31	27	13	21	35	29	23.4

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s UPDATED

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Below are 32 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish at three similar tracks: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Lowe’s Motor Speedway and Texas.

Also see my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table which is very useful for planning your lineup for the rest of the season.

	Atlanta 1	Texas	Lowe’s	Atlanta 2	Lowe’s 2	AVERAGE
Jeff Gordon	2	1	14	8	4	5.8
Kasey Kahne	7	19	7	1	3	7.4
Matt Kenseth	12	5	10	12	2	8.2
Tony Stewart	8	4	19	11	13	11.0
Ryan Newman	22	15	2	9	11	11.8
Jimmie Johnson	9	2	13	36	1	12.2
David Reutimann	32	11	1	4	15	12.6
Kyle Busch	18	18	6	13	8	12.6
Brian Vickers	5	16	5	7	34	13.4
Mark Martin	31	6	17	5	17	15.2
Juan Pablo Montoya	27	7	8	3	35	16.0
Greg Biffle	34	3	20	10	16	16.6
Denny Hamlin	13	12	11	6	42	16.8
Brad Keselowski		23			12	17.5
Kurt Busch	1	8	34	38	10	18.2
David Stremme	23	14	22	14	19	18.4
Kevin Harvick	4	27	41	2	18	18.4
Carl Edwards	3	10	4	37	39	18.6
Martin Truex Jr.	10	25	23	26	9	18.6
Jeff Burton	14	9	25	34	14	19.2
Joey Logano	30	30	9	22	5	19.2
Clint Bowyer	6	22	36	29	6	19.8
Casey Mears	16	21	33	25	7	20.4
Paul Menard	28	13	29	15	27	22.4
Robby Gordon	26	39	3	16	30	22.8
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	11	20	40	17	38	25.2
AJ Allmendinger	17	34	32	20	23	25.2
Bill Elliott*	36	28	15	19	29	25.4
Jamie McMurray	15	38	21	28	33	27.0
Bobby Labonte	40	40	12	18	31	28.2
Sam Hornish Jr.	37	17	16	35	40	29.0
Marcos Ambrose	38	41	26	23	22	30.0

*David Gilliland drove the No. 21 Wood Brothers in the second race at Atlanta. Bill Elliott cracked three ribs during a dirt bike accident and was unable to race. Elliott finished 19th two weeks ago at Kansas Motor Speedway in his first race back.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the NASCAR Banking 500 at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. Below are 31 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish at three similar tracks: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Lowe’s. The table will be updated with this week’s results to be used for the upcoming Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on November 8th.

Also see my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table which is very useful for planning your lineup for the rest of the season.

	Atlanta 1	Texas	Lowe’s	Atlanta 2	AVERAGE
Jeff Gordon	2	1	14	8	6.3
Brian Vickers	5	16	5	7	8.3
Kasey Kahne	7	19	7	1	8.5
Matt Kenseth	12	5	10	12	9.8
Denny Hamlin	13	12	11	6	10.5
Tony Stewart	8	4	19	11	10.5
Juan Pablo Montoya	27	7	8	3	11.3
David Reutimann	32	11	1	4	12.0
Ryan Newman	22	15	2	9	12.0
Carl Edwards	3	10	4	37	13.5
Kyle Busch	18	18	6	13	13.8
Mark Martin	31	6	17	5	14.8
Jimmie Johnson	9	2	13	36	15.0
Greg Biffle	34	3	20	10	16.8
David Stremme	23	14	22	14	18.3
Kevin Harvick	4	27	41	2	18.5
Kurt Busch	1	8	34	38	20.3
Jeff Burton	14	9	25	34	20.5
Martin Truex Jr.	10	25	23	26	21.0
Robby Gordon	26	39	3	16	21.0
Paul Menard	28	13	29	15	21.3
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	11	20	40	17	22.0
Joey Logano	30	30	9	22	22.8
Clint Bowyer	6	22	36	29	23.3
Casey Mears	16	21	33	25	23.8
Bill Elliott*	36	28	15	19	24.5
Jamie McMurray	15	38	21	28	25.5
AJ Allmendinger	17	34	32	20	25.8
Sam Hornish Jr.	37	17	16	35	26.3
Bobby Labonte	40	40	12	18	27.5
Marcos Ambrose	38	41	26	23	32.0

*David Gilliland drove the No. 21 Wood Brothers in the second race at Atlanta. Bill Elliott cracked three ribs during a dirt bike accident and was unable to race. Elliott finished 19th two weeks ago at Kansas Motor Speedway in his first race back.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks [Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway]

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the Pepsi 500 at Auto Club Speedway.  Below you can check the results and average finish for the 26 most fantasy-relevant drivers. The first race at Fontana was the second race of the season, MIS held events in June and August.

The track at Fontana, California is a two-mile, low-banked, D-shaped oval which is configured very similarly to Michigan International Speedway.

When looking at this table keep in mind that Jimmie Johnson ran out of fuel at the both races at MIS. Johnson recorded the best average running position among all drivers and was leading at the halfway mark at both races. Johnson also led the most laps at both events.

Mark Martin also ran out of fuel in the August MIS race. Martin was running second midway through and ran fourth, on the average during the race.

Also see my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table which is very useful for planning your lineup for the rest of the season.

	Fontana	MIS 1	MIS 2	AVERAGE
Jeff Gordon	2	2	2	2.0
Carl Edwards	7	4	4	5.0
Denny Hamlin	6	3	10	6.3
Brian Vickers	10	9	1	6.7
Greg Biffle	4	5	20	9.7
Tony Stewart	8	7	17	10.7
Matt Kenseth	1	20	14	11.7
Juan Pablo Montoya	11	6	19	12.0
Clint Bowyer	19	10	8	12.3
Kyle Busch	3	13	23	13.0
David Reutimann	14	19	9	14.0
Kasey Kahne	12	21	11	14.7
Kurt Busch	5	8	36	16.3
Casey Mears	24	24	6	18.0
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	39	14	3	18.7
Sam Hornish Jr.	23	29	5	19.0
Joey Logano	26	25	7	19.3
Jamie McMurray	16	11	32	19.7
Jimmie Johnson*	9	22	33	21.3
Ryan Newman	28	23	15	22.0
Kevin Harvick	38	18	12	22.7
Mark Martin*	40	1	31	24.0
Jeff Burton	32	26	18	25.3
Martin Truex Jr.	27	36	21	28.0
Marcos Ambrose	22	31	35	29.3
AJ Allmendinger	29	39	22	30.0

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Price Chopper 400 from Kansas Speedway

Kansas Speedway may only host one race per season but its sister track, Chicagoland Speedway, held its race in mid-July and offers useful information for deciding a fantasy lineup for the Price Chopper 400.

Kansas features slightly less banking but the action reaches the same speeds. Both are 1.5 mile, D-shaped ovals and fall into the cookie-cutter mold. The most recent cookie-cutter race was held at Michigan International Speedway in August but MIS is a two-mile track with much faster racing. Qualifying is important but not definitive, like most other cookie-cutters the top cars tend to get to the front of the pack in a hurry- even those that start in the middle. The results of this race should be telling for what to expect in next week’s Pepsi 500 at Auto Club Speedway in California. Fontana is the same D-shape with similar banking in the corners but is a longer race track with higher speeds.

Be sure to check out my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table which lists the results and average finish at eight of the 10 Chase tracks that held events earlier this season.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
• Risky play - Good overall history at this week’s track but poor recent finishes.

1. Mark Martin… Won in ‘05, third in ‘06 at Kansas- average finish of 15.0 in ‘07-‘08. Dominated at Chicagoland in July victory, leading 195 of 271 laps. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Strong qualifier. Has won three poles at Kansas, including the last two- average start of 4.9, best among all drivers. Won last year’s race from the pole. Chicagoland in July: started third, finished eighth, average running position of second. Y!-A2
3. Jeff Gordon… Won the first two Kansas races in ‘01 and ‘02, finished fourth last year and fifth in ‘07. Runner-up at Chicagoland in July. Y!-A3
4. Denny Hamlin… No top-10 finishes in four career Cup starts at Kansas but finished a career-best 11th last year, plus won the Nationwide race. Started fourth, finished fifth At Chicagoland in July. Y!-B1
5. Tony Stewart… Won in ‘06 but finished 39th (accident) in ‘07, 40th last year. Average finish of 6.5 from ‘01-’06. Finished fourth at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B2
6. Kurt Busch… Has started where he’s finished in the last two Kansas races: ‘08- 31st/30th, ‘07- 12th/11th. Started 22nd, finished 17th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B3
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 24.0 in two career Kansas races. Started 42nd, finished 20th last year. Finished 10th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B4
8. Brian Vickers… Finishes where he starts at Kansas: average start 13.8, average finish 13.3 in four career starts. At Chicagoland in July: won the pole, finished seventh, average running position of fourth. Y!-B5
9. Ryan Newman… Runner-up in ‘01 and ‘02 races at Kansas, won in ‘03 but has not finished better than 16th since- average finish of 27.0 in those five races. Finished sixth at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B6
10. Clint Bowyer… Average finish of 7.7 in three career starts at Kansas, his hometown track- three straight top-fives in Nationwide races. Started fifth, finished ninth at Chicagoland in July. Y!-A4
11. Kasey Kahne… Erratic performance at Kansas. Started eighth, finished 21st last year. Started 29th, finished ninth in ‘07. Finished third at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B7
12. Kyle Busch… Started 27th, finished 28th in last year’s race at Kansas, average finish of 26.8 in five career starts. Started sixth, finished 33rd (engine) at Chicagoland in July.
13. Greg Biffle… Won in ‘07 at Kansas, finished third last year. Laps led in four of the last five Kansas races. Started 35th, finished 31st at Chicagoland in July.
14. Carl Edwards… Runner-up in last year’s race at Kansas, DNF (accident) in ‘07. Average finish of 4.5 in ‘05 and ‘06 races. Started 25th, finished 14th at Chicagoland in July.
15. Matt Kenseth… Started third, finished fifth in last year’s race at Kansas. Average finish of 29.0 in ‘06 and ‘07 races. Finished 23rd at Chicagoland in July.
16. Kevin Harvick… Strong value play. Has finished sixth in two consecutive races at Kansas. Finished 19th at Chicagoland in July.
17. Marcos Ambrose… Strong value play. Started 20th, finished 36th in last year’s race, first career start at Kansas- finished 11th in the Nationwide race. Finished 11th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-C1
18. David Reutimann… Strong value play. Started 40th, finished 19th in last year’s race at Kansas- average finish of 15.3 in three Nationwide races. Finished 12th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B8
19. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Started 10th, finished 14th in last year’s race at Kansas. Average finish of 4.7 from ‘05-’07. Finished 28th at Chicagoland in July.
20. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Started 14th, finished ninth in last year’s race, first career start at Kansas. Finished 13th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-C2
21. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average finish of 11.0 over the last three races at Kansas. Finished 15th at Chicagoland in July.
22. Joey Logano… Started 28th, finished 39th in last year’s race, first career start at Kansas- finished ninth in the Nationwide race. Finished 18th at Chicagoland in July.
23. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 18.0 in eight career starts at Kansas. Started 23rd, finished 37th at Chicagoland in July.
24. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Average finish at Kansas jumps to 19.2 when excusing three DNFs due to accident. Finished 21st at Chicagoland in July. Y!-C3
25. David Ragan… Weak value play. Average start 15.0, average finish 12.0 in two career starts at Kansas- finished third in last year’s Nationwide race. Finished 25th at Chicagoland in July.
26. Elliott Sadler… Weak value play. Last two Kansas races: average start 9.5, average finish 9.0. Finished 27th at Chicagoland in July.
27. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 23rd, finished 33rd in last year’s race, first career start at Kansas- average finish of 6.9 in seven IndyCar Series starts. Started 16th, finished 38th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-C4
28. Jamie McMurray… Finishes where he starts at Kansas: ‘08- 16th/17th, ‘07- 20th/24th, ‘06- 41st/42nd (accident). Finished 22nd at Chicagoland in July.
29. Martin Truex Jr…. Three career starts at Kansas, starting position improving but not finishes, ‘08- fifth/43rd (transmission), ‘07- ninth/38th, ‘06- 23rd, 11th. Finished 16th at Chicagoland in July.
30. Brad Keselowski… Long shot value play. No career Cup starts at Kansas, finished sixth in last year’s Nationwide race.
31. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Started seventh, finished 25 at Kansas last year. Started eighth, finished 29th at Chicagoland in July.
32. Paul Menard… Finished 27th in ‘07 and ‘08 races at Kansas.
33. Michael Waltrip… Finished 35th at Kansas last year, 20th at Chicagoland in July.
34. Reed Sorenson… Finished 26th at Kansas last year, 24th at Chicagoland in July.
35. David Stremme… Finished 17th in ‘07, most recent Cup start at Kansas. Finished 26th at Chicagoland in July.
36. Robby Gordon… Finished 37th at Kansas last year, 35th at Chicagoland in July.
37. Scott Speed… No career Cup starts at Kansas. Started second, won the ARCA Re/Max Series race last year. Started second, finished 36th at Chicagoland in July.
38. Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Kansas. Started last, led 20 laps, finished runner-up in ‘07 ARCA Re/Max Series race.
39. John Andretti… Finished 33rd in ‘07, most recent Cup start at Kansas. Finished 30th at Chicagoland in July.
40. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Kansas.
41. Joe Nemechek… Finished 38th at Kansas last year, start and park at Chicagoland in July. Won from the pole in ‘04.
42. Michael McDowell… No career Cup starts at Kansas. Finished 11th in ‘07 ARCA Re/Max Series race.
43. Dave Blaney… Finished 31st at Kansas last year, start and park at Chicagoland in July.
44. Mike Bliss… Has not started at Kansas since ‘05, start and park at Chicagoland in July.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table

This table designed primarily to help fantasy NASCAR owners with deciding on how to spend their remaining driver starts as we progress through the Chase for the Sprint Cup. The table ranks the 26 most relevant drivers by their average finish at the eight Chase tracks that held their first Cup event earlier in the season.

	Loudon	Dover	Fontana	Lowe’s	Martinsville	Talladega	Texas	Phoenix	AVG
Tony Stewart	5	2	8	19	3	23	4	2	8.25
Jimmie Johnson	9	1	9	13	1	30	2	4	8.63
Kurt Busch	3	5	5	34	18	6	8	3	10.25
Greg Biffle	18	3	4	20	28	7	3	5	11.00
David Reutimann	4	18	14	1	20	26	11	8	12.75
Ryan Newman	29	8	28	2	6	3	15	16	13.38
Carl Edwards	19	7	7	4	26	24	10	10	13.38
Matt Kenseth	22	4	1	10	23	17	5	27	13.63
Denny Hamlin	15	36	6	11	2	22	12	6	13.75
Jeff Gordon	2	26	2	14	4	37	1	25	13.88
Kasey Kahne	10	6	12	7	19	36	19	13	15.25
Kyle Busch	7	23	3	6	24	25	18	17	15.38
Juan Montoya	12	30	11	8	12	20	7	24	15.50
Mark Martin	14	10	40	17	7	43	6	1	17.25
Joey Logano	1	15	26	9	32	9	30	21	17.88
Brian Vickers	35	25	10	5	33	8	16	19	18.88
Jeff Burton	31	16	32	25	15	10	9	15	19.13
Sam Hornish Jr.	8	13	23	16	34	34	17	9	19.25
Casey Mears	11	9	24	33	21	16	21	20	19.38
Marcos Ambrose	23	20	22	26	14	4	41	14	20.50
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	13	12	39	40	8	2	20	31	20.63
Clint Bowyer	20	11	19	36	5	39	22	26	22.25
Jamie McMurray	33	14	16	21	10	42	38	11	23.13
Martin Truex Jr.	37	21	27	23	29	33	25	7	25.25
AJ Allmendinger	32	29	29	32	9	35	34	35	29.38
Kevin Harvick	34	17	38	41	11	38	27	30	29.50

New On Pit Row

We’re pretty excited about some new additions to OnPitRow.com and I haven’t done a very good job of getting the word out. So pay attention. My job depends on it.

We have added some stats for fantasy racing players. These NASCAR fantasy racing stats are almost to the point of overkill and won’t be for everyone. But if you want to dig deep into past performance of specific drivers and particular race track stats for fantasy racing, check out our - still developing - drivers pages. You can view - and download - a complete set of NASCAR Loop data stats for any driver in our One and Done fantasy NASCAR pool. More content will be added to those pages soon. Watch this space, as they say. Here is David Ragan’s page for example.

And we have track stats for NASCAR fantasy gamers too. Check out the Phoenix International Raceway page for 40 pages of NASCAR Loop stats on PIR alone. The Talladega Superspeedway page is available too. As with the drivers stat pages, we will be adding more fantasy racing stats and information soon.

On the video front, check out our Bench Racing TV page when you have a chance. We’re posting Mindy Monday’s latest Monday Morning Crew Chief video there each week along with any other cool stuff we find. The folks at Shell Gasolines sent us an early copy of Kevin Harvick’s Old west Showdown spoof, which is now all over the place. But when we get them, we’ll post them for you.

Finally, if you haven’t noticed yet, the ON PIT ROW radio show is now available On Demand. We are finally hosting our own archived shows right here at OnPitRow.com on the Listen Live page. For a long time, ON PIT ROW’s web home was at RaceTalkRadio and we will always value that relationship. But we’ve wanted to host our own from the time we first started OnPitRow.com.

Stay tuned ’cause there’s more to come but if there’s anything that you want to see or hear, let us know. Thanks for joining us On Pit Row.

If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

Photo credit: Ring - or Round Girl Jen by BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

Time to Hand Out Our OPeR Awards

As has been our tradition ON PIT ROW; the end of the year is time to pass out our own, sometimes offbeat, NASCAR awards.

Most people who cover NASCAR on at least a semi regular basis tend to give their opinions as to who deserves the accolades for their participation in the past season.  While Charlie and I do the usual Best Driver, Best Crew Chief type awards we like to venture a little further into the stories of 2008.

The offbeat tends to become normal in a thirty-six week points season in NASCAR world.  From totally undrivable tires at Indianapolis to Carl Edwards’ video game wall move at Kansas, there is plenty to remember in this season gone by.

Please give us your award winners for the following catagories and we may use your answers on this Tuesdays show.

Best and Worst Driver

Best and Worst Crew Chief

Best and Worst Owner

Best and Worst Team

Best and Worst Post Race Interview

Worst attempt at “Adjusting the Rules”

Best and Worst Junior High School-like Drama

Best and Worst Radio/TV Personality

Best and Worst NASCAR Network

Best Guest to Appear ON PIT ROW

Don’t be afraid to go a little “off center” with your answers.  Leave us a comment and we may use it on this weeks show or give us a call with your winners on Tuesday from 5-7pm ET, toll free at 877-502-8255.

photo credit:  Icon Sports Media

Homestead Fantasy Picks: Throw Away the Loop Stats

Use your heads NASCAR fans. With only three races in the NASCAR Loop stat database for Homestead-Miami Speedway, you will need to look at more trends than the Loop Data give you. In fact, make it easy on your self and just pick a Roush-Fenway Racing driver.

I’ll admit that after last week when Jimmy Johnson again put a stompin’ on the field at Phoenix International Raceway, I am shell shocked. Johnson and Chad Knaus have shown no signs of stroking it and running for points at all. Will this week, with only a 36th place finish needed to clinch a third straight Sprint Cup Series championship change anything? Jimmy’s average finish in the last three Homestead-Miami finales is only 18.7. He was, in two of those races, leading the championship going into the event. That may show a trend toward being conservative. Actually, it may not matter.

The Roush-Fenway drivers have been very good at Homestead. Greg Biffle once won here in three consecutive years. Greg is tops in Fastest Laps Run (80) and Laps in the Top 15 - 688 - in the last three races too.

Matt Kenseth has an average finish of 3.3 and has led the most laps - 214 for 26.7 percent -  in the three Loop Data races. And Kenseth is one of only three of the 2008 Chase qualifiers to have won at Homestead. Biffle and two-time winner Tony Stewart are the others.

But Carl Edwards is my pick this time. Carl has shown that he and crew chief Bob Osborne have no quit in them. They are the only team with any mathematical chance to upset the Lowes No. 48 apple cart. They have to win the race. They can win the race. Carl has an average finish of 5.7 - only third best among the Roush drivers - and the fourth best Driver Rating at 107.2.

So Carl is my pick. And Jeff Gordon is my “I can’t believe I’m calling him an upset”, upset special. Gordon has never won at Homestead-Miami - there are only two of those tracks left on his to-do list. It’s just a hunch that Gordon may get the job done here, this time around.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Homestead-Miami Speedway: Anyone But Jimmy Johnson

I think the NASCAR scoring loops must be broken at Homestead-Miami Speedway. How else can you explain the fact that Jimmy Johnson has only the 12th best Loop Driver Rating for the progressively banked mile-and-a-half track? Maybe it’s a typo.

Or maybe Johnson can’t win them all. He hasn’t won at Homestead. Maybe it’s because he usually has a championship to clinch and has better, bigger things to worry about. I think that could play into the results this week.

Running for points didn’t seem a consideration for Johnson at Phoenix last Sunday. He just drove away from everyone else pretty much all day. It was a performance that defined the term “having the field covered”.

But not this week. On paper the final race of the Chase to the 2008 Sprint Cup looks to be a Roush benefit. I agree with Matt on that.

I would look to Tony Stewart to play spoiler for the Cat-in-the-hat’s party, but I think that Smoke is counting down to the end of this season. Time to go Chevy racing again - with his own team. In fact, none of the Joe Gibbs racers look like winners this week. Neither does Dale Earnhardt Jr, Clint Bowyer or Jeff Burton.

No Jimmy Johnson win this week. I hope.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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