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Homestead Fantasy Picks: Throw Away the Loop Stats

Use your heads NASCAR fans. With only three races in the NASCAR Loop stat database for Homestead-Miami Speedway, you will need to look at more trends than the Loop Data give you. In fact, make it easy on your self and just pick a Roush-Fenway Racing driver.

I’ll admit that after last week when Jimmy Johnson again put a stompin’ on the field at Phoenix International Raceway, I am shell shocked. Johnson and Chad Knaus have shown no signs of stroking it and running for points at all. Will this week, with only a 36th place finish needed to clinch a third straight Sprint Cup Series championship change anything? Jimmy’s average finish in the last three Homestead-Miami finales is only 18.7. He was, in two of those races, leading the championship going into the event. That may show a trend toward being conservative. Actually, it may not matter.

The Roush-Fenway drivers have been very good at Homestead. Greg Biffle once won here in three consecutive years. Greg is tops in Fastest Laps Run (80) and Laps in the Top 15 - 688 - in the last three races too.

Matt Kenseth has an average finish of 3.3 and has led the most laps - 214 for 26.7 percent -  in the three Loop Data races. And Kenseth is one of only three of the 2008 Chase qualifiers to have won at Homestead. Biffle and two-time winner Tony Stewart are the others.

But Carl Edwards is my pick this time. Carl has shown that he and crew chief Bob Osborne have no quit in them. They are the only team with any mathematical chance to upset the Lowes No. 48 apple cart. They have to win the race. They can win the race. Carl has an average finish of 5.7 - only third best among the Roush drivers - and the fourth best Driver Rating at 107.2.

So Carl is my pick. And Jeff Gordon is my “I can’t believe I’m calling him an upset”, upset special. Gordon has never won at Homestead-Miami - there are only two of those tracks left on his to-do list. It’s just a hunch that Gordon may get the job done here, this time around.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Homestead-Miami Speedway: Anyone But Jimmy Johnson

I think the NASCAR scoring loops must be broken at Homestead-Miami Speedway. How else can you explain the fact that Jimmy Johnson has only the 12th best Loop Driver Rating for the progressively banked mile-and-a-half track? Maybe it’s a typo.

Or maybe Johnson can’t win them all. He hasn’t won at Homestead. Maybe it’s because he usually has a championship to clinch and has better, bigger things to worry about. I think that could play into the results this week.

Running for points didn’t seem a consideration for Johnson at Phoenix last Sunday. He just drove away from everyone else pretty much all day. It was a performance that defined the term “having the field covered”.

But not this week. On paper the final race of the Chase to the 2008 Sprint Cup looks to be a Roush benefit. I agree with Matt on that.

I would look to Tony Stewart to play spoiler for the Cat-in-the-hat’s party, but I think that Smoke is counting down to the end of this season. Time to go Chevy racing again - with his own team. In fact, none of the Joe Gibbs racers look like winners this week. Neither does Dale Earnhardt Jr, Clint Bowyer or Jeff Burton.

No Jimmy Johnson win this week. I hope.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

At Phoenix International: Finally Harvick is the Man

It’s not gonna be Jimmy Johnson this week. No-sir-ee, not this time - not at Phoenix International Raceway. This is Kevin Harvick’s week to shine in the light of the Chase to the Cup.

Harvick has one of only seven perferct Loop Driver Ratings - 150 pts - ever scored for a race and it was at PIR in the fall 2006 race. He, in fact,  won both 2006 runs at Phoenix and has a Driver Rating of 106.7 for the last seven races at the desert track.

Harvick has led 316 Loop Laps - second best -, has an Ave Running Position of 7.6 and has run 85.4 percent of his Loop Laps in the Top 15. Plus his Bakersfield, California home isn’t all that far away.

But he’ll have his hands full. Besides having to contend with  Johnson and Carl Edwards in the Cup race, Harvick is scheduled to compete in the Craftsman Truck Series and Nationwide Series events this weekend too.

Yeah, Jimmy Johnson is Good Again.

Now about that Johnson guy. Once again, Jimmy Johnson has the top Loop Data Driver Rating - 118.0 - and he’s run 94.8 percent of his Laps in the top 15, with an Ave Position of 5.5 and Ave Finish of 5.3. Oh, and he too, like Harvick, is a double winner at PIR and comes from nearby California. But I don’t care. Jimmy Johnson isn’t going to win this week. Harvick is.

Johnson’s going to be too busy keeping track of his closest championship pursuer, Edwards. Carl Edwards has never won a Cup race at Phoenix. Still, he sports the fourth best DR - 103.3. None of his Loop Box Score stats jump off the page at you. But if his crew chief  Bob Osborne can get him eight laps more per tank of gas than anyone else in the field, I’d say he has a chance.

Third best in the Loop is Jeff Gordon. Phoenix was one of only three tracks that Gordon had failed win at in Cup, until this race last year. Now, if you look at his stats, you wonder how it took so long. His Driver Rating is 104.0 and his Ave Finish is second best at 7.6 as are his 1899 Laps in the Top15. Gordon hasn’t won yet in 2008 and that might be the scariest stat of all.

And Then There’s the Field

Greg Biffle has led more laps than anyone in the last seven PIR races - 342 for 15.7 percent and he has the most Fastest Laps Run as well with 244. But the Biff has never won at Phoenix and the Chase has slipped from his reach now.

Tony Stewart is the only other driver with a Driver Rating above 100 - 101.6 to be exact - but Stewart isn’t driving the Toyota that I would fear this week. That fearsome Camry belongs to Kyle Busch. The Shrub has won in Phoenix and he is as due for a break as anyone in the field. Watch the 18.

Who else? Dale Earnhardt Jr could be a factor. The Hendrick Motorsports cars figure to be good and Junior’s DR is a respectable 89.1 and he won here in the past. Mark Martin has a DR of 96.1 and will drive his last race in Junior’s old no. 8 for DEI this week. Martin Truex Jr in another DEI ride has a 95.7 Driver Rating. Kurt Busch is a past PIR winner witha 95.4 DR, but I’m not feelin’ it for Kurt.

Nope, I’m sticking with Kevin Harvick to win and Kyle Busch as a semi-upset possibility.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Phoenix International Raceway: Kasey Kahne Kant

Most weeks, even though 2008 has not been a banner year for Kasey Kahne, his stats make him look like - at least - a dark-horse contender to win. With mile-and-a-half tracks comprising a majority of the Chase races, and Kahne being a relative stud on the intermediates (he swept the two Cup races at Lowes in May) Kasey has been a legit consideration most of the last eight weeks. But not this time.

PIR has not been good to Kahne. Eight races there with three top tens and three finishes of 31st or worse. Zero laps led, a 20th best Loop Driver Rating of 70.9 - compared to stat topper Jimmy Johnson at 118.0 - and an Ave Finish in the last seven races of 23.4. Kahne has run only 39.1 percent of his Laps in the Top 15.

There is no other driver whom I look upon as a consistent contender, that looks as unlikely to win this race, this week. The Dodge teams don’t strike fear into anyone. Budweiser, I would think, must question their selection of the Gillette-Everham/Kasey Kahne choice as the replacement - as if - for Dale Earnhardt Jr and DEI/Chevy. 

The results this weekend from the Desert probably won’t help.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

Happy Halloween Fantasy Racers

With three races to go in the 2008 NASCAR Sprint Cup season, I’m wondering if any of you fantasy racing fans are starting to get early withdrawl simptoms.

Since becoming involved with the Fantasy Players Network, OnPitRow.com has paid more attention to NASCAR fantasy gaming than we ever did before. These special, daily posts centered on the Chase to the Sprint Cup are part of that increased focus. We hope you’ve enjoyed and gotten some value from them.

The writers involved - Matt Mercer, Chris Leone and Luke Poland along with  Steve and I have put a lot of time and thought into the content. Personally, I feel priveledged to be part of it. These guys are good.

I also want to thank Darren of One Bad Wheel for giving ON PIT ROW the opportunity to be a partial sponsor for his great Champs, Chumps and Sleepers game. It’s a great game and I continue to absolutely suck at it. But so does Steve, so we at least have a bragging rights battle between the two of us - kind of a Fast Lap for fantasy racing picks.

So keep that all in mind if you consider paying any serious attention to the NASCAR fantasy racing winners that either of us suggest. If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

Thanks for reading our Fantasy NASCAR thoughts here at OnPitRow.com and at the Bench Racing with Steve and Charlie blog. And here’s a tip; check out Scott Engle’s race previews at RotoExperts.com.

Photo credit: NASCAR.com

With One Battle to Win: What NASCAR General to Take?

Carl Edwards won the battle of Atlanta but Jimmy Johnson surely won the war. With a 183 point lead, only three races to go and a seemingly invincible team, Hendrick Motorsports’ no. 48 has it’s third straight Sprint Cup all but locked up. Edwards is putting up a spirited fight, but the Johnson -  Chad Knaus combo is relentless.

Still this column is not about championships. We’ve been mostly using data derived from NASCAR’s scoring loops, mixing in some traditional stats and the random hunch, to try and pick a winner for each upcoming race in the Chase to the Cup. Next up is the 500 miler at Texas Motor Speedway, one of NASCAR’s ubiquitous, intermediate tracks.

Great military leaders throughout history have always strived for command of the terrain. Carl Edwards held the high-ground at Atlanta Motor Speedway for most of the day last Sunday. In the end he managed to hold off the counter-attack of Jimmy Johnson. But it may have been more a matter of Johnson running out of laps than that of Edwards commanding the field. Carl did all he could do. Can he do it again at Texas?

Carl has some things stacked in his favor. He won the first Texas race of 2008. Same year sweeps seem to happen more often on intermediate tracks than on any other type. Cousin Carl has eight wins on the I-tracks during the last five years - a total that trails only Greg Biffle (12) and Johnson (14). And, as Matt pointed out, the fall Atlanta winner has followed up with a Texas Two-step in each of the last three years. Edwards’ Loop Data is strong for Texas too, with a Driver Rating of 96.0 - sixth best - 255 Laps Led and 70.2 percent of his Laps in the Top 15.

Tony Stewart is tied for the top Driver Rating with a 107.9 and has series leading stats of 196 Fastest Laps Run, 2109 - 89.8 percent -  Laps in the Top 15, 437 Laps Led and and Ave Position of 8.0.  Tony has four I-track wins, including 2006 at TMS.

Biffle, as stated before, has 12 wins on the intermediates. He always seems fast on fast tracks like Texas. But his tenth best DR for TMS and his lack of category leading Loop Stats make it tough to pick him over his teammate Edwards.

Biffle’s other Roush-Fenway partner, Matt Kenseth has a better shot. Kenseth has the second best Driver Rating - 104.9 - and the best Ave Finish and Ave Mid-race Position - 6.9 and 4.9  - along with the top Ave Points Gained for races at Texas. Kenseth is a six-time I-track winner.

Denny Hamlin’sDriver Rating is a strong 101.9 and though winless on intermediates, has the third best Ave Finish on the I-tracks in general and TMS in particular.

Dale Earnhardt Jr is a three-time I-track winner and has a Loop Driver Rating of 98.1 - 5th best.  But if you heard any of the in car radio conversation between Junior and crew chief Tony Eury Jr, it will be hard to have confidence in their ability to figure the current car out enough to win at Texas. Eury Jr was at a loss to the point where Earnhardt had to calm HIM down. Not the normal state of affairs with the no. 88 team.

Jimmy Johnson was asked if he felt that, with such a big points lead, he could ease up a bit and drive for points. He said, absolutely not. He plans to drive every race that’s left with the intention of winning it. That should send chills down the rosy necks of Johnson haters everywhere. Johnson has a Driver Rating of 107.9 - tied for best with Stewart - he has the best Ave Start and Ave Finish on I-tracks in general and the most wins too.

The pick is the no. 48 Lowes Chevrolet to win this week. For an upset special take Martin Truex Jr  who is seventh in Driver Rating and due for DEI to get a break.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Texas Motor Speedway is the Alamo for Richard Childress’ Drivers

Anybody got a coon-skin helmet? Ask the guys who drive for Richard Childress Racing. They may feel about as besieged at Texas Motor Speedway as Davey Crockett and the Texicans did at the Alamo. Well, not quite, but you get the idea. With a total of only seven laps led in the last seven races between the lot of them, TMS hasn’t been good to Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer.

The RCR trio are the worst of the Chasers, Driver Rating-wise with scores that put them 13th-15th of the rated drivers. That, in itself isn’t all bad. Jeff Gordon is only 12th himself. But if you are looking to pick a winner for Texas, Gordon has at least led 194 laps.

Only Greg Biffle, of the Chase contenders - and after Atlanta, that is a very loose description - has run smaller percentage of Laps in the Top 15 - 46.6 - than the RCR boys, who range from 54.6 to 55.9 percent. But Biffle has 280 Laps Led.

Other drivers with poor stats at Texas include Ryan Newman - DR 67.3 and 5 Laps led with an Ave Finish of 22.3. Elliott Sadler - 68.1 DR and 23.1 Ave Finish and Brian Vickers with a Driver Rating of 62.9 and 25.1 for an Save Finish.

Be safe. Take Jimmy Johnson.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Atlanta Motor Speedway: Only the Top Teams Need Apply

G’wan home you guys. That’s what the stats are saying to all but the members of NASCAR’s 2008 royalty. That being the cars and drivers of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Roush-Fenway and Richard Childress. All others are mear pretenders to the Sprint Cup throne, at least for this race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The top ten Loop Driver Ratings all belong to members of those four teams. DEI pilots, Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr come in 11th and 12th with the Dodges of Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch right behind them. But the talent of the big four teams looks too tuned-in to AMS to be upset by those guys. It would be a huge surprise.

General Johnson’s March Through Georgia

Once again, Jimmy Johnson holds most of the Loop cards. There are 16 categories that make up the Loop Data Box Score. Jimmy has the top stat in 11 of those columns for Atlanta. Significantly Johnson holds the edge in Ave Position and Finish - 6.6 and 5.9. He has led more laps - 326 for 14.3 percent - and run the most Laps in the Top 15 - 2142 for 94.0 percent. His number one Driver Rating is 113.4. J J has the top season-to-date Driver Rating too, at 107.2.

The next four guys in the Atlanta Loop all have Driver Ratings of 102.3 or better. So Johnson won’t have the track to himself Sunday. Both Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr are past winners at AMS and have the second and third DRs - 104.4 and 103.6. Stewart has led 318 laps - 14.0 percent and just behind Johnson. Junior is right there with 299 laps led. Ave Finishes of 9.4 for Smoke and 10.9 for Junior are significantly behind Johnson.

The Challenge of the Roushketeers

The two Roush-Fenway drivers who most closely chase Jimmy Johnson in the Chase are Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle. Edwards year-to-date Driver Rating is second only to Johnson at 105.4. His AMS rating is fourth at 102.8 and he has 2nd best 197 Fastest Laps Run. Carl is a two-time winner at Atlanta and is typically Roush strong on the fast mile-and-a-half tracks.

Greg Biffle has the fifth best DR - 102.3 - second best Ave Running Position and Laps in the Top 15 percentage - 9.8 and 83.4 percent - and series high 211 Fastest Laps Run. But Biffle is win-less at AMS as are Chasers Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth (Driver Ratings - 92.8 and 94.1). But all three drivers are very capable on intermediate tracks.

Jeff Gordon has only four races left in which to claim his first win of 2008. Gordon has an amazing string of 14 straight years with at least two wins. Time is running out but Atlanta could get him started on an end of season run. He has four wins at AMS, is the sixth rated driver in the Loop Stats. 

Twenty One Anyone?

Kyle Busch has twenty NASCAR major wins in 2008. It’s been awhile since he scored in the Cup Series, though he still has the third season-to-date Driver Rating at 104.2. Kyle was the winner the last time we went to Atlanta and AMS has produced plenty of sweeps over the years. Carl Edwards was the last to pull it off. But Kyle’s teammate, Denny Hamlin, claimed that the Hendrick Motorsports’ cars have an advantage on what Joe Gibbs Racing is fielding right now. I believe him.

The pick, this week is Dale Earnhardt Jr - Jimmy Johnson can’t win them all, can he? - with a dark-horse shout out to DEI’s Regan Smith.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Chasers Rule at Atlanta: Someone has to Suck

The top ten drivers in NASCAR Loop Data stats for the past seven Atlanta Motor Speedway Sprint Cup races are all 2008 Chase to the Cup qualifiers.

The top five all have Driver Ratings above 100. 100 is very good.

Jimmy Johnson leads ‘em out - surprise! - with a score of 113.4. Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle take it down to 102.3. The next five, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Kyle Busch span 96.6 to 88.5. There are no Atlanta slouches in the whole group.

Denny Hamlin has the 15th best Driver Rating and it’s still pretty close at 83.5. Kevin Harvick though, looks like the relative red-headed step child of the bunch. Harvick’s DR is 74.5, with an Ave Finish of 22.9.

Harvick and Hamlin are the only chasers with negative Passing Differentials. Harvick has led only 11 laps and Hamlin but 19 (though Jeff Burton has the lowest total of the chasers with three.) The top five have led a total of 1387 - 60.8 percent of all laps in the last seven races.

Surprisingly, Bobby Labonte, who at one time not long ago owed Atlanta Motor Speedway, has a Dr of only 65.7 and an Ave Finish of 27.1. I used to pick Labonte every time the Cuppers went to AMS. Worked out pretty good for a number of seasons. Ryan Newman has a Series best Ave Start of 6.1 and finish of 22.7 during the Loop era. So much for qualifying. And for a driver with the reputation of being fast on fast tracks that Michael Waltrip has, Mikey looks bad at AMS - DR of 61.0, one Lap Led and Ave Finish at 18.7.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Martinsville Speedway: Look for a Hendricks Win

Carl Edwards says he can’t wait to get to Martinsville Speedway.  It can’t be because of past successes there.  Cousin Carl has had a rough couple weeks but it’s hard to see any relief on the Virginia bullring’s horizon.  In eight starts, Edwards has just one top ten finish. 

The no. 99 team is 168 points behind championship leader Jimmy Johnson. If they aren’t feeling desperate, Edwards Office Depot group must be edging that way. Coming off two sub-par results and going into a track where his Driver Rating is a 21st best 72.4. No wins and an Ave Finish of 19.1. Desperate measures - ala Talladega - may be in order.

Compare  Edwards Loop stats to these. Four wins, nine top fives and 12 top tens. Average Finish of 6.0, Running Position of 7.1, 337 Fastest Laps Run. An Ave Green Flag Speed of 91.482, 187 Quality Passes, 3075 Laps in the Top 15 and a Driver Rating of 121.2. Those numbers belong to Johnson. And they are all second best in their category except for the Ave Finish which is number one. Jimmy’s stats set the table for what could be a Hendrick Motorsports domination.

Once and Future King of Martinsville?

Fellow Hendrickster, Jeff Gordon has the best Driver Rating - 124.5 - and Series best scores in Fastest Laps and Ave Green Flag Speed. Throw in seven wins, 19 top fives, 25 top tens and an Ave Finish of 7.0. Watch Jeffy. I don’t think he’s going winless for the year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has the fourth best DR - 100.7. He hasn’t won at Martinsville but he has seven top fives. He has more Green Flag Passes and Quality Passes than anyone else. He’ll need a bunch more. Most of his other stats line up with his fourth place Driver Rating. Junior gives Rick Hendrick a strong three-of-a-kind hand.

The guy with the third best DR - 116.3 - is the once-and-future Chevy pilot, Tony Stewart. Stewart has seven top fives, including two wins. He has a series high Ave Running Position - 6.7 - and Laps in the Top 15 - 3123. 

There are two other Martinsville winners that are in the Chase. One is kind of in - Denny Hamlin who is almost 500 points behind Johnson. The other is in with at least a puncher’s chance - Jeff Burton who lies second to J J, only 69 points back.

Burton has nine top fives and 12 top tens compared to Hamlin’s three and five. But Hamlin has the best of the Driver Ratings and Ave Finishes- 100.6 and 9.5 to 85.3 with 14.5.

The other noteable Driver Rating is the 93.3 of Kyle Busch. Nobody talks about Rowdy much these days. But he got his 20th major league NASCAR win of 2008 last Friday in the Nationwide Series race at Lowes. Steve is a big believer in momentum. Maybe Kyle will find some.

I think momentum is a figment of sports commentators. I picked Tony Stewart to win this race ON PIT ROW this week. I have changed my mind. Go with the stats, my friend Darren at One Bad Wheel, has told me. So I’ll take Jeff Gordon to win. On a hunch, take Bobby Labonte for the upset.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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