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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Pure Michigan 400 at Michigan Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	12	10.26
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Greg Biffle	20	14.04
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	20	15.83
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Brad Keselowski	3	14.91
Eric McClung	KFFL	Greg Biffle	20	14.70
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kurt Busch	36	14.87
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Greg Biffle	20	14.26
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	20	13.70
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	23.91
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Trevor Bayne	24	22.09
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Brad Keselowski	3	16.43
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Brad Keselowski	3	11.26
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	26	14.30
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brad Keselowski	3	15.35
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	20	14.35
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	20	10.70
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Brad Keselowski	3	14.09
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	A J Allmendinger	11	16.74
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Brad Keselowski	3	13.52

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Pure Michigan 400 at MIS

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	36	14.35
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	36	14.78
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	36	13.30
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	10	11.04
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kyle Busch	1	13.39
Eric McGuire	free agent	Carl Edwards	36	16.00
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	36	13.43
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	10	15.43
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	23.39
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Brad Keselowski	3	12.91
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Denny Hamlin	35	12.35
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	36	15.39
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	12.13
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	36	11.48
James Jones	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	10	12.22
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Denny Hamlin	35	13.26
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Matt Kenseth	10	9.78
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	36	11.87
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Carl Edwards	36	14.87

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Michigan 2 - Pure Michigan 400

For the second and final time this season, the Sprint Cup Series will visit Michigan International Speedway this weekend for the Pure Michigan 400. This is a 2-mile D-shaped oval, which means 200 laps will be scheduled for the race on Sunday, equaling the 400 miles. The schedule for the weekend is a bit different than normal, though. There will be a practice session on Friday at noon and qualifying will be held on Friday as well at 3:30 pm (all times Eastern). Happy Hour will then be held on Saturday morning, and it is scheduled to start around 10:10 am. No drivers will be in qualifying trim during Happy Hour so that session should give us a good feel as to who will be strong on Sunday. Be sure to check out my Practice Breakdown as well as my Post-Happy Hour Predictions over on ifantasyrace.com. They should be posted sometime Saturday afternoon.

During The Last Race At Michigan…The Roush-Fenway Fords of Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, and Greg Biffle combined to lead 115 of the 200 laps, but none of them took the checkered flag. Rather, Denny Hamlin, who started 10th and led just 8 laps, took his second win in the last three Michigan races. Kenseth followed him to the line followed by Kyle Busch and Paul Menard with Edwards rounding out the top five. Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart are the only two drivers to post top 10 finishes in each of the last three races at Michigan International Speedway.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Pure Michigan 400:

1. Carl Edwards - It’s kind of crazy just got good Carl Edwards is at Michigan. This is his second-best track statistically and out of the fourteen career starts he has made here, twelve have ended in top 10s, while only one has been outside of the top 20 (and that was a 22nd back in 2006!). Carl is a two-time winner in The Irish Hills and it would not surprise me one bit to see him do a backflip once again on Sunday. Edwards’ average finish at Michigan of 6.2 is the best in the series.

2. Kyle Busch - Is it just me, or does it seem like every week Kyle Busch “loses” a race, he comes back the next week looking for vengeance? If so, the field better watch out this weekend. Kyle is hit-or-miss at this track, which is the reason for his average career finish of 16.2, but he finished 3rd here in June and led the most laps. Add in the fact that he dominated the most recent “cookie cutter” race (Kentucky) and led over 75% of the laps at California earlier this year (also a two-mile track), and all signs point to “Rowdy” being a “hit” rather than a “miss” on Sunday.

3. Matt Kenseth - It’s Michigan time so it’s time to load up on the Roushkateers. Kenseth has made twenty-four starts in The Irish Hills and like his teammate, Carl Edwards, has just one finish outside of the top 20 and two wins. In his last eight starts here, Kenseth has five top 5 finishes and three finishes of either 14th or 20th. If he starts in the top 20 and the Roush stable looks good in practice, expect another top five out of Kenseth on Sunday. He finished 4th at Fontana, the other two-mile “cookie cutter”.

4. Denny Hamlin - Here is the biggest question mark for me this weekend. Which Denny Hamlin will show up? The one in May-June that had five top 10s in seven races that ended with his win at this track, or the one that we have seen recently that seems to run into more problems than he should and has just one top 10 in the last seven races? I guess we’ll find out soon enough… Hamlin has five straight top 10s at Michigan and four of those are top 3 finishes, including two wins. Be sure to check back at ifantasyrace.com on Saturday to see if I change my mind on Denny Hamlin!

5. Greg Biffle - As you probably know, you can’t go wrong by picking the Roush Fords at Michigan, although I would definitely pick Edwards or Kenseth before considering The Biff. However, Greg has ten top 10s in seventeen starts at this two-mile track and two wins, so he’s not too shabby either. He finished 15th here in June but led 68 laps, so it’s not like he had just a decent car, and he has four top 10 finishes in the last six races in The Irish Hills, with three of those being top 5s. As long as Boris Said doesn’t beat him up before the race, I think Biffle has a good shot at putting another top 5 on his record at Michigan.

6. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother’s record isn’t stellar here, but he does have the eighth-best driver rating over the past two years here and these Penske Dodges are so fast week in and week out that you really need to throw history out the window. He won here in 2003 and has finished in the top 11 in each of the last three spring races in The Irish Hills. The August race at this track, though, hasn’t been too nice to Kurt over the past three years, as he has completed just 62% of the laps and has posted finishes of 36th, 36th, and 40th. I think he’ll change that little streak once this weekend is over, though.

7. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” is going to have to put together a streak of good runs if he wants to solidify his spot in the Chase this season, and Michigan is a perfect place for him to get over that disappointing ending at Watkins Glen International. He has made twenty-five career starts at this two-mile track and has just five finishes outside of the top 20. Stewart has eight top 10s in the last ten races at this track and the sixth-best driver rating over the past five races here. He finished 7th here in June.

8. Jimmie Johnson - Believe it or not, this is Johnson’s fifth-worst track on the circuit. His average finish here is 15.8 and he has no wins and just seven top 10s in nineteen career starts. However, it’s not the fact that “Five Time” runs bad here, it’s just that he doesn’t get the finish. Over the last five races at Michigan, Johnson has the fifth-best driver rating of any active driver and has led more than double the laps (280) than the driver second on the list, Denny Hamlin (with 134). However, his average finish is just 21st-best of anyone (with 20.0). If this team can go mistake-free through the race, a top ten should be expected.

9. Brian Vickers - Before Brian had to miss both Michigan races in 2010 for his blood clot problem, he had a streak of five-straight top 10s here and three-straight poles. The off-year didn’t affect him much, though, because Vickers picked up right where he left off in June and posted a solid 10th-place finish after starting 4th, making it six-straight top 10s in The Irish Hills. This team needs to turn things around to salvage a decent season and this is the perfect track for them to do just that.

10. Jeff Gordon - I’m still not very impressed with Jeff Gordon on the intermediate tracks this year. He’s been dominant at the flat tracks, but not so much at the “cookie cutters,” especially earlier in the year when he finished 18th and 17th at California and Michigan, respectively. He finished 4th at Kansas and ended up 10th at Kentucky, though, so is this team turning things around on these tracks? He has three top 5s in the last five Michigan races, but the most recent of those five have ended up with Gordon in 27th and 17th. Since that last Michigan race in June, though, Gordon hasn’t finished worse than 13th.

11. Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” has been very good for most of the last couple months, so I’m going to go ahead and throw out his 18th-place finish at this track in June when this team was really struggling. Before that, Joey had three straight top 10s here, and I think there is a good chance that he ends up around 10th once it’s all said and done on Sunday. This is Logano’s fifth-best track–statistically–on the circuit.

12. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” is the most recent winner of this race, but that has been his only top 10 in the last five races in The Irish Hills. However, he won earlier this year at California, which is also a 2-mile race track, so he may reverse his fortunes at Michigan this weekend. This team hasn’t exactly been getting the finishes they deserve in the last month, though, so I’m a little leery in ranking Harvick very high going into the weekend. If he impresses me in practice, expect the #29 to jump up in my rankings.

13. Kasey Kahne - Kasey has one win and three 2nd-place finishes at Michigan, so he definitely knows how to get around this track, but which Kahne will show up this weekend? You should know by now that he is very inconsistent, so make sure you watch him in practice to see if that #4 Toyota is fast. He was running near the top 5 in June when he ran out of fuel and couldn’t get the car started again, which delegated Kasey to a 28th-place finish. Last August he finished 14th after starting on the pole.

14. Brad Keselowski - Seriously, a 2nd-place effort at a road course with a broken ankle after grabbing a win in Pocono? That makes it four top 10s in the last five Sprint Cup Series races for Mr. Keselowski, which is the reason he has scored the fifth-most points in the series over that stretch. However, will this hot streak continue? If it is going to, Brad is going to have a career-best effort at Michigan, though, as currently his best finish here is 24th. I expect that to change on Sunday.

15. David Ragan - These are David’s best type of race tracks, and I don’t think there are many things (other than a win) that cure a little soreness from a wreck than having a good run the following week. His career-best finish at Michigan is a 3rd back in 2008, which is also the last time Ragan got a top 10 here. He started 20th and finished 20th at this track back in June, but when he qualifies near the front, the #6 is usually a good pick on these intermediates.

Just Outside The Top Ten Entering The Pure Michigan 400:

16. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer hasn’t posted a top ten since the race at Sonoma in June, and I just don’t see him turning around his luck this week. He has made nine starts at Michigan and owns an average finish of 19.3 and just three top 10s. Clint finished 8th here in June, but I think his finishing position on Sunday will be closer to his career average than that result in the first race here.

17. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - When Junior was in the top five of the points standings earlier this year, I thought it would be next to impossible for him to miss the the Chase. My friend Dave Norris even did the math on how unlikely it would be (click here to read). Well, I guess Junior likes to keep us doubting out math, because I seriously think he’s going to have to turn things around a bit to stay in the top ten after Richmond. Junior won at Michigan in 2008 but has finished 19th and 21st in his last two starts here. I think the #88 Chevrolet will run around the same spot it has for the last month: right around the top 15.

18. Trevor Bayne - Every time Bayne races at an intermediate track in the Sprint Cup Series, I consider him as a top 20 pick. He made his first career start at Michigan International Speedway in June and started 17th and went on to finish a respectable 16th. At Fontana–which is also a two-mile track–Trevor started 27th and finished 30th. So, if he starts in the top 20, I expect a similar result.

19. Jeff Burton - Finally Jeff Burton got a top 10! Will he make it two in a row? I doubt it, but this team is light-years better right now than they were earlier in the year. Jeff has just nine top 10s in thirty-five starts at Michigan, but he has recorded twenty-four top 20s. With the way this team has been running for the last month, I think Burton will make it twenty-five, and with a little luck could post a top 15.

20. Paul Menard - Before the June race, Menard had five straight finishes of 24th or worse in the Irish Hills and they he came out of nowhere (well…somewhat) and posted a solid 4th-place effort after starting 9th and leading two laps. I don’t think Paul will repeat his result in June, but a top 15 wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

Those To Avoid Entering The Pure Michigan 400:

Juan Montoya - JPM has shown some flashes at Michigan (top 10s in one of the two races in 2009 and 2010) but overall his average finish here is 23rd and he has completed just 92% of the laps ran. Until his top 10 at Watkins Glen last weekend, Montoya was on a bit of a bad luck streak and had just one top 10 in the last seven Sprint Cup races. If it wasn’t a road course event last weekend, I think that would have turned into one in the last eight. Juan finished 30th here in June.

Marcos Ambrose - He’s coming off his first career Sprint Cup win, but I don’t think that momentum will be enough to turn around Marcos’ luck at Michigan. He has two 15th-place finishes here in six starts, but those other four races have ended with Ambrose in 23rd or worse, which is the reason his average finish at this track is 27th. He seems to be running better on the intermediates this year, but he will really have to blow me away in practice for me to put the #9 on my rosters this weekend.

David Reutimann - Reutty started on the outside pole here in June but ended up finishing 35th, and I think he has to be pretty sore after that wreck at Watkins Glen on Monday. I have been wrong about injuries before (ahem: Brad Keselowski) but with as inconsistent as Reutimann is, it’s hard for me not to just avoid him all weekend. He finished 9th here in 2009 but that is David’s only top 10 at this track and his career average finish here is 20.4.

Martin Truex, Jr. - Here’s another driver that was a great pick last weekend that will more than likely be a dud for Michigan. Truex has a couple of runner-up finishes to his name at this track (both back in 2007), but in the seven races since then he has cracked the top 10 just once and has an average finish of 20.1. If he starts near the front, I may think about taking a chance on him, but even then it is very risky.

Pure Michigan 400 Scouting Report

How to make an informed fantasy pick at Michigan:

1. Practice is by far the most important element this weekend in terms of making a informed fantasy pick for the Pure Michigan 400. If a driver struggles during Happy Hour at Michigan then the smart thing to do is look for someone else to pick. Drivers can’t overcome bad practice sessions and expect to get a good finish at Michigan.
2. Look back at what happened the first time the series visited Michigan this year. I still like Happy more though.
3. In term of evaluating similar tracks this weekend the two that you really want to look back to are Auto Club Speedway and Kansas. Auto Club Speedway is Michigan’s sister track. Both are 2.0 mile tracks but the banking is a little bit steeper at Michigan. Kansas is a 1.5 mile track which is essentially a mini-Michigan.
4. Qualifying at Michigan is overrated. All that it’s good for is pit selection. If you’re making your fantasy picks based on pit selection then your probably making it a little bit harder than it needs to be. It’s a sign that you’re an expert because your complicating simplicity.

Drivers to watch in the Pure Michigan 400

Kyle Busch – Busch finished third earlier this season at Michigan Speedway. His driver rating was the second highest (124.3) and he led the second most laps (59). Another thing I really like about Busch is how strong he performed at Auto Club Speedway in March. In that race he led 151 laps, had an average running position of 2nd, and had the best driver rating by far (143.4).

Carl Edwards – Edwards will be tough to beat in the Pure Michigan 400 especially now that his contract distraction is out of the way. Edwards has always been successful at Michigan and only once in fourteen races has he finished lower than 12th. Edwards has two wins at Michigan and earlier this season he finished 5th. His average finish here is 6.2 (best in series).

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is a two-time winner at Michigan and earlier this season he finished second. He was very impressive and had the highest driver rating (130.1). His average running position was 4th and he led 17 laps. Michigan is a Roush track and he’s one my favorite heading into the weekend.

Jeff Gordon – Gordon finished 17th earlier in the year but I wouldn’t be worried about picking him. Since Kansas it’s his only finish worse than 13th. Because of that I consider it an irregularity and not something that should be to concerning. In the last couple of years he’s had lots of success at 2.0 mile tracks.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is the defending champion of the August race at Michigan. Last year he held off Denny Hamlin and avoided a Toyota sweep at GM’s home track. Harvick is as good as they come on tracks where the high line around the track comes into play. You also can’t discount the fact that RCR cars get good horsepower and good fuel mileage when needed. In March Harvick won at Michigan’s sister track (Auto Club) and out dueled Jimmie Johnson for the win.

To see the rest of my rankings check out my Pure Michigan 400 Fantasy Preview

VegasInsider.com odds to win the Pure Michigan:

Denny Hamlin 4/1, Jimmie Johnson 6/1, Kyle Busch 7/1, Tony Stewart 8/1, Kevin Harvick 9/1, Kurt Busch 9/1, Jeff Gordon 10/1, Carl Edwards 12/1, Brad Keselowski 18/1

Racing4Glory.com : Michigan Loop Data Ebook

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com momentum over the last three races:

Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Ryan Newman, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Paul Menard

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Heluva Good! 400 from Michigan Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	20	11.47
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Mark Martin	9	11.60
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Brian Vickers	10	15.00
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Brian Vickers	10	15.40
Eric McClung	KFFL	Brian Vickers	10	12.20
Eric McGuire	free agent	Greg Biffle	15	10.87
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Greg Biffle	15	15.13
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	28	14.80
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts		44	13.20
Chris Leone	On Pit Row		44	22.07
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Greg Biffle	15	16.67
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	15	12.13
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	David Ragan	20	12.87
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brad Keselowski	25	15.33
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	15	12.53
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	15	8.40
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	David Ragan	20	14.40
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	David Ragan	20	18.20
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Brian Vickers	10	13.53

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Heluva Good! 400 from MIS

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	5	13.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	5	13.20
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	5	12.20
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	2	11.13
Eric McClung	KFFL	Carl Edwards	5	13.00
Eric McGuire	free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr	21	16.67
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	5	11.67
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	2	14.67
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts		44	12.40
Chris Leone	On Pit Row		44	13.80
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	5	12.13
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	27	13.07
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	27	14.27
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	5	10.53
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	14	10.93
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Carl Edwards	5	11.27
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Tony Stewart	7	9.27
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	5	10.27
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Matt Kenseth	2	11.07

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Michigan - Heluva Good! 400

After last week’s exciting race at Pocono Raceway (I hope you sense the sarcasm), the Sprint Cup Series will head north to Michigan International Speedway for the Heluva Good! 400 this weekend. The last race that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won came at this track in 2008, so you have to believe that he will be one of the contenders on Sunday afternoon. As it has been for mostly every other race this weekend, two practice sessions are set to be held on Friday afternoon while the starting lineup will be set on Saturday. After qualifying, the cars won’t see the track until the drop of the green flag, which will be around 1:15 pm (eastern time) on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Michigan…Kevin Harvick led 74 laps and had an impressive driver rating of 141.0 and got his third (and ultimately final) win of the 2010 season. Denny Hamlin followed “Happy” to the line with Carl Edwards coming home 3rd. Two other Roush-Fenway drivers–Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth–rounded out the top five. During the spring race at this track, Denny Hamlin led 123 laps en route to the taking the checkered flag ahead of Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Tony Stewart. Hamlin, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, and Joey Logano were the only drivers to post top 10 finishes in both Michigan races last season.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Some people may not think that qualifying is important, but if you look at the results of the Michigan races last season, it proved to be. In the spring race, seven of the top ten qualifiers finished in the top 13, and in the fall race, nine of the top ten qualifiers finished in the top 14. As with every week, practice speeds should be in the back of everyone’s minds–especially Happy Hour, when most teams will be in race trim only. Auto Club Speedway is the only other 2-mile intermediate track on the schedule so you can look back at that race to get an idea of who may be good this weekend.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Heluva Good! 400:

1. Carl Edwards - Here’s something you may not know: every time that Carl Edwards has finished outside of the top ten this season, he has gone on to record a top five finish in the following race. Putting that tidbit aside, Michigan is Edwards’ second-best track on the circuit (statistically) and he owns two victories at this 2-mile track. Carl has finished outside of the top 10 just twice in his thirteen starts in the Irish Hills and four of his last five starts here have ended in top five finishes.

2. Jimmie Johnson - When I look at the stats over the past two years at Michigan, Jimmie Johnson is way down on the list in terms of average finish (18.25). However, over those four races “Five Time” has led the most laps (280) and has had the best average driver rating (117.1) of anyone in the series, which tells you that he runs well but just hasn’t gotten the finishes. Michigan is very similar to Auto Club Speedway and Jimmie almost won at that track earlier this year. He’s never won at this track but Johnson should challenge for the win on Sunday.

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Speaking of challenging for the win…when is Dale Junior finally going to end his winless streak? As I said earlier, Michigan is the site of Dale’s last win and he does have two top 10s in his last three starts here. It seems like every week many people are saying Earnhardt, Jr. is going to win the race, which is normal for any week–except one thing: this season, he could have legitimately won multiple races. Don’t worry Junior Nation, your king will find victory lane soon enough.

4. Kevin Harvick - As I said before, California is the sister track to Michigan, and I hope you remember who won that race earlier this season and how. If not, click here to watch it. “Happy” is the most recent winner at Michigan as well and his average career finish here is 14.7. He also hasn’t finished worse than 11th in the past four Sprint Cup races, and I don’t expect that to change this weekend. I said in the off-season that Harvick would have a down-year in 2011, but he’s really making me look bad thus far.

5. Greg Biffle - I don’t know what it is about this team and fuel, but they need to sort out their problems if they plan on winning a race this season. The Biff recorded top 10 finishes in both Michigan races last season and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him running there throughout the entire Heluva Good! 400 on Sunday. Biffle won here in 2004 and 2005 and has ended up in the top ten in ten of his sixteen starts here. He finished 11th at Auto Club Speedway earlier this year.

6. Matt Kenseth - Matt is a two-time winner at Michigan International Speedway and you have to believe that he will have a shot at winning the race on Sunday. He has just one top ten finishes in the last four races here but this is his second-best track (statistically) as he has an average finish of 9.8 at Michigan in 23 career starts. The #17 Ford came home 4th in California earlier this season.

7. Denny Hamlin - Over the past four races at Michigan, Denny Hamlin has the best average finish (4th) and the second-best average driver rating (113.0) of anyone in the series, but this isn’t the same team as last year and it’s hard for me to rank him very high when he’s not getting good finishes at the tracks that he is best at. Hamlin has a four-race streak of top 10s at Michigan, and while I don’t think that streak will end on Sunday, I don’t see the #11 Toyota repeating the 1st and 2nd-place finishes from the 2010 season.

8. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” disappointed all of his fantasy owners last weekend in Pocono, but don’t expect another run like that this weekend. Tony won at this track in 2000 and has finished in the top 12 in eight of the last nine Michigan races. I won’t mention the summer thing as I normally do with Stewart, but I will say this: the 14 will be in victory lane within the next four races. Stewart’s average finish here is 11.83 and he finished 13th at California earlier this season.

9. Juan Montoya - Last week’s tire gambles didn’t work out as planned for the 42 team, but they did come away with their first top ten since Martinsville in early April and I think they could make that two in a row this week in Michigan (as long as Juan doesn’t try to take down the wall). It took a while for Montoya to get used to this place–his best finish was 25th in his first four attempts at Michigan–but he got his first top ten here in his fifth start and hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since. If he starts in the top ten, pick him. Montoya started from the pole at California earlier this year and went on to record a 10th-place effort.

10. Brian Vickers - Vickers didn’t race here in 2010, but he has won the past three poles at Michigan in the races he has started and he won here in August 2009. Brian is also on a streak of five top 10s at Michigan, believe it or not. This is his third-best track (statistically) on the circuit and Brian brought the #83 Red Bull Toyota home 8th at Auto Club Speedway earlier this season. These tracks are the bread and butter of Red Bull Racing and you should expect to see Vickers in the top ten often during Sunday’s race.

11. Jeff Gordon - Coming off of his second win of the year, many people will have Jeff Gordon ranked pretty high going into this weekend’s race. I’m not sold, though. He won the two flat tracks but he has been less than stellar at the intermediates this year. Jeff ended up 18th at California, 23rd at Texas, and 12th at Darlington–all lower finishes than expected from the #24 Chevrolet at those tracks. At Kansas, though, he finished 4th, so he may continue his streak of good races on Sunday. If he looks good in practice, expect Gordon to shoot up my rankings when I make my final predictions on Saturday.

12. Kasey Kahne - Remember what I just said about Vickers? Well, Kahne is in a Red Bull Toyota as well and he loves these tracks, so a good run can be expected from him this weekend. Kasey started in the top five in both Michigan races last season and went on to post finishes of 2nd and 14th. He ended up 9th–right behind his teammate–at Auto Club Speedway earlier this season, but Kahne hasn’t had a top ten since Darlington in early May.

13. Kurt Busch - The “Double Deuce” has been wicked fast the past couple of weeks and he should have–in my opinion, anyway–visited victory lane in one of those races. Over the past two years at Michigan, the elder Busch brother has the 11th-best average driver rating of anyone in the series and he has two top 10 finishes (an 8th and a 3rd). However, in the other two races, Kurt ended up 36th and 40th. Busch is a multiple winner here, though, and he now has three straight top 10s after his 2nd-place effort in Pocono last weekend.

14. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” has made twelve starts at Michigan International Speedway, and like last week in Pocono, this definitely isn’t his best track, as he has just three top 10 finishes. Kyle finished 2nd here in August 2008 but his best finish at the Irish Hills since then has been 13th. I’m sure this ranking will end up being too low once it’s all said and done on Sunday, but Kyle Busch’s average finish of 17.8 at this track makes me turn away from him this weekend, especially after him and crew chief Dave Rogers got penalized for the #18 Toyota being too low last weekend; it seems, to me anyway, that a team has a down week after something like that happens. Kyle finished 3rd at Auto Club Speedway earlier this season, though, so he could have a good run at Michigan this weekend, too.

15. Clint Bowyer - This is Clint’s second-worst track on the circuit (statistically) but he hasn’t finished worse than 18th since Darlington in early May and in the last four Michigan races, Clint has two top 10 finishes and a 13th-place effort to his name. Bowyer also finished 7th at California earlier this year, which is the sister track to Michigan. Don’t expect a top five run out of the #33 team this weekend, but a solid top fifteen isn’t out of the question at all.

Just Outside The Top Fifteen Entering The Heluva Good! 400:

David Ragan - The most likely driver to enter the top fifteen once I make my final predictions this week is Ragan. He’s not as good as his teammates are at Michigan, but David finished 11th here last fall and has a 3rd-place effort to his name back in 2008. Statistically, this is his fourth-best track on the circuit.

A.J. Allmendinger - My sleeper of the week for Michigan is none other than A.J. Allmendinger. He wound up 14th at Auto Club Speedway earlier this season and finished 11th and 17th in the two Michigan races in 2010. He’s in a mini-slump recently, though, so make sure The Dinger has a good car before picking him Sunday.

Marcos Ambrose - The Tasmanian finished 15th in both Michigan races last season, and with the way he has been running at the intermediates this year, Ambrose could easily end up around there on Sunday. Watch the #9 Ford closely in practice before keeping him on your final roster this weekend, though.

David Reutimann - Reutty hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 at Michigan in his last five starts, and I don’t expect that streak to end on Sunday. He has one top ten here (a 9th in 2009) and while I don’t think he will grab a second, a top 20 is in reach for the #00 team this weekend.

Brad Keselowski - I still like the way that the Penske Dodges are running even though Keselowski didn’t get the finish he deserved in Pocono last week (in my mind anyway). BK’s best finish at Michigan came in his first start at the track when he finished 24th after starting 12th. Will we see a career-best finish out of Bad Brad this weekend? He did win at Kansas…

Avoid These Drivers For The Heluva Good! 400:

Mark Martin - In case you haven’t realized (or haven’t accepted) it, Mark Martin is done–this season anyway. He may pull off a surprise top ten run in a few races this season, but to have him on your fantasy rosters is entirely too risky. He has just three top 10s in the last eleven races at Michigan and he finished 20th at Auto Club Speedway.

Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” won here in 2003 and 2004, but since then his best finish at “The Irish Hills” has been 12th. Furthermore, in his last six starts at this track, Newman has just one finish inside the top 20. He ran well at the intermediates earlier this season, so I could change my mind on Saturday, but right now I would avoid the #39 Chevrolet.

Paul Menard - If this race was the fourth or so of the season, I might like Paul to turn his luck around at Michigan, but it’s not. His average career finish here is right around 25th but Menard did cross the stripe 16th at California. Once again, though, that was earlier in this season when this team got off to their fast start.

Jeff Burton - Even if Jeff Burton was running consistently fast this season, I would still tell you to avoid him this weekend at Michigan. He finished 8th here last spring after starting 5th, but that is Burton’s only top ten in the last sixteen races at this track. Don’t fool yourself into thinking this is the week the #31 team finally gets a top ten.

Jamie McMurray - Do I even have to explain this one? Jamie Mac deserves a permanent spot on everyone’s “Avoid” list this season.

Scouting Report: Michigan Heluva Good 400

How to make an informed fantasy pick at Michigan International Speedway:

1. Practice is by far the most important element this weekend in terms of making a good informed fantasy pick. If a driver struggles during Happy Hour at Michigan then the smart thing to do is move on. I can’t overstate how important practice is at Michigan.
2. In term of evaluating similar tracks this weekend the two that you really want to look back to are Auto Club Speedway and Kansas. Auto Club Speedway is Michigan’s sister track. Both are 2.0 mile tracks but the banking is a little bit steeper at Michigan. Kansas is a 1.5 mile track which is essentially a mini-Michigan.
3. Track history is important at every track NASCAR visits. It’s important also at Michigan but at intermediate tracks it’s vital to go with the newest data available.
4. Qualifying at Michigan is overrated. All that it’s good for is pit selection. If you’re making your fantasy picks  based on pit selection then your probably making it a little bit harder then it needs to be. It’s a sign that your an expert because your complicating simplicity.

Drivers to watch in the Michigan Heluva Good 400:

Matt Kenseth - Two time winner who I think is the safest pick this week. Kenseth won at Texas earlier this year and at Auto Club Speedway he finished fourth. It’s hard to ignore his 9.8 average finish. Kenseth has only finished outside the top twenty at Michigan once in 23 races and that was because he was involved in an accident.

Carl Edwards - Edwards is truly a natural at Michigan. He made his first career start here in 2004 and finished tenth. Only once in thirteen races has Edwards finished outside the top fifteen at Michigan. Edwards has two career win at MIS.

Kevin Harvick - The last time NASCAR visited Michigan Harvick emerged victorious. Earlier this year Harvick made a last lap pass on Jimmie Johnson for the win at Auto Club Speedway. He’ll be a contender once again.

Jimmie Johnson - His recent Michigan finishes don’t reflect how good he is here. He’s absolutely dominated a few races at Michigan but came away with really bad finishes to show for it. Since 2007 Johnson has led in every race but one and he’s led an impressive 428 laps.

Jeff Gordon - The 24 team has come to life in recent weeks. Last fall Gordon finished 27th but in the three preceding races he finished 4th, 2nd and 2nd. Gordon has two MIS wins but his most recent win was in 2001.

Kurt Busch - Just like Gordon he’s no longer missing in action. In the last two races Kurt Busch has been extremely strong. His performance at Kansas really stands out to me. Kurt Busch has two wins at Michigan (2007 & 2003) and last spring he finished 3rd.

VegasInsider.com Odds to win the Michigan Heluva Good 400:

Denny Hamlin 9/2, Kyle Busch 5/1, Jimmie Johnson 7/1, Kevin Harvick 8/1, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Carl Edwards 10/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1, Tony Stewart 14/1, Kurt Busch 14/1, Greg Biffle 14/1, Matt Kenseth 16/1

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Carfax 400 at MIS

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	A J Allmendiger	17	15.04
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	20	11.52
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Dale Earnhardt Jr	19	22.17
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kasey Kahne	14	11.00
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	19	13.87
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Dale Earnhardt JrDale Earnhardt Jr	19 19	13.26 13.04
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	17	13.74
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	7	9.52
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kasey Kahne	14	11.65
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kasey Kahne	14	12.78
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Juan Pablo Montoya	7	12.30
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jamie McMurray	20	12.91
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	14	14.26
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	14	19.13
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	14	11.87
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	13	15.43
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Bill Elliott	22	19.52
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	10	10.61

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Carfax 400 from Michigan International Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Carl Edwards	3	16.17
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	3	11.91
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	1	11.04
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Mark Martin	28	12.61
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	40	15.91
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jeff Gordon	27	12.91
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	3	10.39
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	3	13.39
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kurt Busch	40	16.43
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	3	12.91
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kevin Harvick	1	10.91
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	3	16.09
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	12	13.78
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Jimmie Johnson	12	14.52
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	1	14.26
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	3	12.52
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	12	13.26
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	12	11.96
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kurt Busch	40	17.26

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