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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Tums Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Mark Martin	28	12.21
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	19	15.21
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Mark Martin	28	17.00
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	6	15.79
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	19	15.45
Eric McGuire	free agent	Juan Pablo Montoya	22	16.42
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kasey Kahne	25	15.73
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	22	13.82
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	no pick	44	21.55
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	19	17.36
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	25	12.33
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	11	14.39
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Greg Biffle	15	15.61
James Jones	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	19	13.82
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	19	12.67
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Clint Bowyer	19	14.09
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	25	16.52
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	11	14.91

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Tums Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	9	13.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.72
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.61
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	9	13.21
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	2	14.15
Eric McGuire	free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr	7	15.48
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.52
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	27	15.85
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	no pick	44	13.03
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.48
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	14.18
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	7	12.97
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	9	12.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	5	12.27
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.82
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.18
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	3	12.67
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jeff Gordon	3	14.70

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville 2 - Tums Fast Relief 500

With 60% of the 2011 Chase For The Sprint Cup completed, I think it’d be safe to say that 60% of the Chase field no longer has a chance at winning this year’s championship. The only drivers that I see having a shot of hoisting the title at Homestead-Miami at season’s end are the “Fab Five” in the points right now: Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart, and Kevin Harvick. A minor slip up by any of those drivers this weekend at Martinsville Speedway could take them right out of the equation as well. The Series will resume its ‘normal’ schedule of the 2011 season this weekend, with two practice sessions being held on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying on Saturday. The Tums Fast Relief 500 will start around 1:45 p.m. eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Martinsville…Despite only leading nine laps, although it is his forte, Kevin Harvick beat the fan-favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for his second win of this season in April. Kyle Busch, who led 151 of the 500 laps that day, finished 3rd, while Juan Montoya and Jeff Gordon rounded out the top 5. Pole-sitter Jamie McMurray, who led 31 laps that afternoon, finished 7th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Kyle Busch - Now that Kyle Busch’s chances for the championship are pretty much finished, I expect “Rowdy” to go all out for victories, and although he has never won at Martinsville in thirteen career starts, I think it’s possible this weekend. In the last four races at “The Paperclip,” Busch has notched three top 5s, and he led 151 laps here in April (despite only leading 120 in his previous twelve attempts). As usual, though, Kyle is feast or famine at this track: he has six career top 5s compared to five career finishes outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, though, Kyle Busch hasn’t had a driver rating lower than 91.6, and I fully expect him to challenge for the win on Sunday afternoon.

2. Jimmie Johnson - If JJ is going to have any shot at all in getting back in this championship hunt, he must have a good race this Sunday and hope the others catch the bad luck bug. The first part is very possible, but it’s the second that worries me. In the last five races at Martinsville, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 11th and has an average driver rating of 117.2 (second-best in the series). Over his entire career here (nineteen races), Jimmie has ended up in victory lane six times and has an average finish of 5.6. He finished 35th here in his first start at “The Paperclip,” but in the eighteen races since then, “Five Time” has led 1,616 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. It’s safe to say that the #48 should be pretty good this weekend.

3. Kevin Harvick - What’s interesting about Kevin Harvick is that he wasn’t really great at Martinsville Speedway until recently. As you probably remember, “Happy” won the race here in April, and in this race last season he finished 3rd despite starting 36th. In his last eight starts here, Harvick has seven finishes of 12th or better, which is pretty good considering in his first eight starts here, Kevin had just two finishes in the top 10. Harvick’s career average finish of 16.5 at “The Paperclip” shouldn’t scare you away, and he should improve it on Sunday.

4. Jeff Gordon - Jeff Gordon is pretty much a lock for fantasy owners when it comes to a race at Martinsville. He has made thirty-seven starts at this race track and come away with thirty top 10s (including seven visits to victory lane). He also has seven poles to his name and not a single DNF has been registered for Gordon at this track. He stumbled in this race last season (20th) but Gordon has twelve top 5s in the last thirteen Martinsville races (seriously). He has also led at least 36 laps in each of the last ten.

5. Denny Hamlin - We all know the story of the #11 team in the 2011 season: they’re running okay, but nowhere near where they should be, especially at the tracks where they should be dominant (like Pocono and here at Martinsville, for example). In April, Hamlin finished 12th after starting 5th and leading 89 laps, which isn’t bad, but when you look at the fact that he won the three previous races entering that event, it’s not as impressive. In fact, that 12th-place finish in April has been Denny’s worst since 2006, where he finished 37th after starting 41st and getting in an accident. Hamlin has the potential to win on Sunday (his average finish of 6.6 in twelve career starts here shows that) but judging by the way his season has gone thus far, I just don’t see it happening. In fact, this 5th-place ranking may be a bit too high, too. I guess we’ll find out…

6. Carl Edwards - If Cousin Carl is going to make my pre-season prediction of being the 2011 champion come true, he’s going to need a not-so-normal run this weekend in Martinsville, Virginia. Roush-Fenway isn’t great at “The Paperclip,” and Edwards is no exception: in fourteen starts here, he has just one top 5 finish and a total of four top 10s. Also, Carl has led a grand total of three laps in his career here, and all three were in the April race earlier this season. He does have two 8th-place finishes in the last three races at Martinsville, though, so there’s something positive for those looking to pick Carl Edwards this weekend. Other than that, all you really have is his momentum (worst finish of 11th in the last nine Sprint Cup races).

7. Brad Keselowski - Unless you really hate this kid, chances are you are happy at the fact that “Bad Brad” is right in the thick of things for this championship. Sitting at third in the points, Keselowski is coming to a track that is (statistically) his sixth-best on the circuit. In his first career starts at Martinsville, Brad completed all 508 laps and finished 12th after starting 30th. He followed that up in this race last season with a 10th-place finish, also completing 100% of the laps ran. When the series stopped here in April, though, Keselowski finished 19th, two laps down. However, that was back when this team looked like their “normal self.” I’m expecting a career day for BK at “The Paperclip” on Sunday, and it wouldn’t be very far fetched to see him close in on the points lead once the checkered flag waves.

8. Clint Bowyer - NASCAR’s most recent winner will come into a track this weekend that he has found some success at in the past. In eleven career starts at Martinsville, Clint has notched seven finishes of 11th or better and owns an average finish of 14.7. He led 91 laps in the spring race and, surprisingly, those have been his only laps led at this track. In the last two fall races here, though, Bowyer has finishes of 19th and 38th. However, I like how this team is running, and in the last five races here, Clint has the seventh-best average driver rating of anyone in the series.

9. Ryan Newman - Despite finishes of 30th and 20th in the last two Martinsville races, “The Rocketman” still has the eight-best average driver rating in the last five races here, so those weren’t due to the fact that he raced bad (Newman started 4th and 2nd in those races, respectively). Before that, Ryan had three-straight top 10s at “The Paperclip,” and in nineteen career starts here, Newman has an average finish of 14.6 and just four finishes outside of the top 20. I would second-guess picking him, though, if both him and his owner, Tony Stewart, appear to be struggling in practice on Friday. Newman has started 4th or better in three of the last four Martinsville races.

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - This is actually a pretty good race track for Junior, and with a little luck, it’s possible that he finally breaks his win-less streak on Sunday (I said possible, not probable). In twenty-three starts at Martinsville, Earnhardt has twelve top 10s to his name, and nine of those have also been top 5s. In the last five races at “The Paperclip,” Junior has the tenth-best average driver rating and an average finish of 12.2. Also, since joining Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR’s Golden Boy has made seven starts at this track and has just one finish worse than 15th.

11. Jamie McMurray - This is about the only place you can really trust Jamie Mac to give you a decent finish (this season, anyway). In seventeen career starts, McMurray has notched ten top 10s and an average finish of 15.7. Of those ten, though, only one has been a top 5, which was a 2nd-place effort in 2004. In the last five races at Martinsville, Jamie has four finishes of 11th or better and he had the sixth-best driver rating during the race here in April, where McMurray finished 7th after starting on the pole.

12. Matt Kenseth - Like I said with his team mate, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, who isn’t great at Martinsville, will also need to have a solid run this weekend to keep his championship hopes alive. In twenty-three starts at “The Paperclip,” the 2003 NASCAR champ has just two top 5s to his name and an average finish of 15.8. In the last four races here, though, Kenseth hasn’t finished worse than 18th and he brought the #17 Ford home in 6th in the race earlier this year. He has completed 99% of the laps ran, so he’s not terrible at this track, but you won’t find Matt dominating on Sunday (only 68 total laps led in his career here).

13. Joey Logano - Statistically, this is Sliced Bread’s second-best track on the circuit, and that doesn’t really surprise me due to the fact of how well the Gibbs Toyotas have ran at “The Paperclip” lately. Logano’s first start at Martinsville ended with him in 32nd, but in the four races since, Joey has an average finish of 8.3 and has completed all but one lap ran. Around this time last year was when Logano went on his hot streak to end the 2010 season.

14. Juan Montoya - If you want a really risky pick with high reward potential this weekend, Juan Montoya is your man. But then again, when isn’t he a risky pick with high reward potential? Anyway, in nine career starts at Martinsville, JPM has an average finish of 13.9 and just one finish outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, Montoya has 3rd and 4th-place finishes to go along with 19th and 26th-place efforts. Don’t be afraid to give Juan a shot if the #42 Chevrolet looks good in practice on Friday.

15. Jeff Burton - With his season-best 2nd-place finish last week at Talladega, Jeff Burton now has four top 15s in the last six Sprint Cup races, and he hasn’t finished worse than 21st in that span. At Martinsville, Jeff has made thirty-four career starts and owns an average finish of 14.9 with fifteen top 10s. He finished 24th here in April but that has been Burton’s first finish outside of the top 20 here since 2006. I think he’ll have a little momentum coming into this weekend and Jeff Burton should be a good top 15 pick, and with a little luck could notch a top 10.

Those To Avoid Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:

Greg Biffle - Most of the Roush-Fenway stable struggles at Martinsville, but The Biff may be the worst of them all. In seventeen career starts here, Biffle has just two top 10s and an average finish of 22.9. Also, despite having three top 5 starts six races at this track, Greg has only led 15 laps of the 3,013 ran. A top 10 would be considered a win for this team this weekend.

Kurt Busch - It surprises me how much the elder Busch brother struggles at this track considering how well he has been at Bristol, another short track, in the past. In twenty-two starts at “The Paperclip,” Kurt has just four (four!) top 10s, and he hasn’t finished there since 2005. Busch won at Martinsville in 2002, but that was then and this is now. He has finished between 16th and 18th in four of the last five races here. Expect the same out of the Double Deuce this weekend.

Kasey Kahne - I very well could change my mind about this depending on how the #4 Toyota looks in practice, but going into this race I’m going to avoid Kasey Kahne even though he has been running very well over the past month. At Martinsville Speedway, though, it’s a different story for KK. He has a runner-up finish to his credit here (back in 2005), but that is only one of two top 10s for Kahne in fifteen career starts here. He started 3rd here in April but had a teens-at-best car before wrecking with Martin Truex, Jr. and finishing 39th.

Scouting Report: Martinsville

How to make an informed pick for Martinsville:

The best method for making an informed fantasy pick for Martinsville is to study drivers average finishes. I know it doesn’t sound glamorous, but that’s what really counts this week. This is a drivers track where the man behind the wheel in the difference maker.

Starting position is important at Martinsville but don’t get to hyped up about it. The overall importance of qualifying at Martinsville can easily be debunked. The best drivers win at Martinsville, not the best starting position.

Here’s how I would rank the variables in terms of importance this week

1) Recent / Overall Track History at Martinsville

2) Practice

3) Momentum

4) Starting Position

Martinsville Top Tier Elite Drivers:

Jeff Gordon – The Chase has been a huge disappointment for Gordon and now that he’s semi officially “done” I think he’ll bounce back in a big way. All year-long Gordon has been good on the shorter tracks in the circuit (Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire) and this is his best track . Before Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin started winning all the races at Martinsville Gordon was the driver to beat. Gordon is a 7-7-7 driver at Martinsville. 7 wins, 7th place average finish and 7th place average start.

Jimmie Johnson – 2011 hasn’t been a typical year for Jimmie Johnson. Even his 11th place finish (caught speeding on pit road late, led 65 laps) at Martinsville earlier this year was out of the norm for him. It marked his first non-top ten finish at Martinsville since his first race here in 2002. Look for the six-time winner to be one of a handful of drivers who will be contenders for the win in the Tums Fast Relief 500.

Denny Hamlin – Nothing has been good for Denny Hamlin as of late but Martinsville should be like medicine to him. Since 2007 Hamlin has four wins and an impressive 3.5 average finish. His worst finish in this stretch is 12th and he’s led 1,010 laps. In April Hamlin had an average running position of fifth and he posted the second best driver rating (118.7). Hamlin will be getting a little extra practice this week because he’ll be racing Kyle Busch’s Truck in the Camping World Truck Series.

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch and the 18 team have been exceptional at Martinsville as of late. They’re also a great picking alternative to get out of sync with the competition if you need to pull off a fantasy NASCAR “Hail Mary”. Kyle Busch has been a serious contender in the last four Martinsville races. In these races he’s finished 4th, 4th, 3rd and 22nd. His finish of 22nd was the result of a late wreck (Yahoo Race Chart). In April Kyle Busch led the most laps (151), had the best driver rating (133.4), and had the best average running position (3rd).

Kevin Harvick – In April Harvick proved why he’s called the “Closer” with his late pass for the win. It was pretty impressive considering his average running position was 16th. In the last three Martinsville races Harvick has been as good as anybody. Last fall he finished 3rd but in the 2010 spring race he finished 35th. In the 100 laps he completed he was pretty good though (Yahoo Chart). Despite only completing 20% of the laps his driver rating was the 7th best.

Martinsville Top Front Runner (after the Elite Top Tier)

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has finished in the top eleven in seven of the last nine Martinsville races. Earlier this year he led 91 laps (18.2% of the race) and finished 9th. After the “Top Tier Elites” I think Bowyer presents a good fantasy alternative.

Martinsville Back Runners who you should avoid:

Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Paul Menard, Martin Truex Jr., David Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Momentum Over the last five races:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Tony Stewart
6. Kyle Busch
7. Brian Vickers
8. Clint Bowyer
9. Jeff Burton
10. Kevin Harvick

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Pre Race Loop Data
• Post Race Loop Data from earlier this year
• Short Track Competition Profile
• Entry List

VegasInsider.com Odds To Win:

• Jimmie Johnson 4/1
• Denny Hamlin 5/1
• Kyle Busch 6/1
• Kevin Harvick 7/1
• Tony Stewart 7/1
• Jeff Gordon 8/1
• Carl Edwards 12/1
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
• Ryan Newman 20/1
• Kurt Busch 22/1

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Goody’s 500 at Martinsville

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Denny Hamlin	12	8.50
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Denny Hamlin	12	15.50
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Denny Hamlin	12	15.50
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	7	14.83
Eric McClung	KFFL	Denny Hamlin	12	9.83
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	12	9.00
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	5	11.17
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	14	9.67
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Denny Hamlin	12	9.50
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	13	19.67
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jeff Gordon	5	15.00
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	12	7.50
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	7	6.67
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	12	15.67
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	5	10.33
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Denny Hamlin	12	8.33
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Denny Hamlin	12	10.00
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	5	19.67
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jamie McMurray	7	11.17

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Goody’s Fast Relief 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Jimmie Johnson	11	15.67
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	11	18.00
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	11	17.33
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	12	17.83
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	11	17.33
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	11	22.00
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	11	14.17
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	5	20.67
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	11	11.83
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	5	14.17
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Denny Hamlin	12	13.33
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	11	11.67
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	12	16.33
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Jimmie Johnson	11	13.33
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	12	6.67
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	11	10.17
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	11	10.17
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	5	13.83
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kevin Harvick	1	15.50

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville - Goody’s Fast Relief 500

After the checkered flag waved at Fontana, I had to sit back and rub my eyes; did Kevin Harvick just beat Jimmie Johnson at one of his best tracks? I think most NASCAR fans–myself included–breathed a sigh of relief that this could possibly be the year that Johnson gets knocked off of his throne. Of course, running second every race in the Chase will earn any driver a championship, but I think it was a good thing for NASCAR to see “The Champ” get beat (as well as have an exciting finish after an ultimately dull race).

This week the Sprint Cup series makes a stop at Martinsville Speedway in Virgina, commonly known as “The Paperclip“. This will be the first of two stops at the track this season, with the second coming in late October. Not many drivers have visited victory lane here recently, with Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Jeff Gordon combining to win 14 of the last 16 races held at this 0.526-mile oval.

During The Last Race At Martinsville…Denny Hamlin held off a hard-charging Mark Martin for his seventh win of the 2010 season. Martin finished second that day with Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson rounding out the top five. In the first race at Martinsville last season, Hamlin led 172 laps and got the win on a green-white-checkered finish over Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Joey Logano. Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Martin Truex, Jr. followed those two to the checkers. Hamlin, Logano, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson were the only drivers to record top 10s in both races at “The Paperclip” in 2010. The results of the most recent race at Martinsville can be found by clicking here, and this will show you how drivers finished compared to how they were in practice.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…Quite simply, load up on Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson this week. Those two have won the past nine races here and it seems like they are always up front. Some people may shy away from the Gibbs Toyotas, but I don’t see much of a problem with them at the short tracks; picking them at the intermediate ovals, though, is a different story. Last season, qualifying wasn’t very important. In October, Hamlin won from the pole but only one other person who finished in the top ten started there. During the spring race here, none of the top eight finishers started better than 11th. Also, most drivers are good here or bad here, and very rarely do you see the “bad” drivers having a good race.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

1. Denny Hamlin - This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Hamlin has won three of the last four races at “The Paperclip” with his other finish being 2nd. He’s made eleven starts at this track and has ten top 10s and an average finish of 6th. The only race that Denny hasn’t completed all of the laps was his second start here where he started 41st and got caught up in an accident. He’s led almost 36% of the laps ran here in the past two years and should be a lock for a top five this week. Don’t worry about the engine problems with the Gibbs cars this week because, as I said before, I don’t think they will have issues on short tracks.

2. Jimmie Johnson - For the first time since 2005, “Five Time” didn’t lead any laps in the two races held at Martinsville last season, but he still posted finishes of 9th and 5th. Jimmie has won here six times and is on a streak of seventeen straight top 10s at this track. Johnson looked good at Bristol a few weeks ago and I see no reason why he won’t challenge for the win on Sunday. He’s real hungry to break his winless streak, especially after getting beat by Harvick in California last week, and this is the perfect place for that to happen.

3. Kevin Harvick - I expect “Happy” to ride the momentum from his win at Fontana into Martinsville and be a factor once again this week. He started on the pole in the spring race last year and led 57 laps before he had problems and wound up finishing 35th. Harvick started 35th in the October race but still came away with a top five finish after leading 97 laps. Kevin has finished in the top twelve in eight of last ten races held at “The Paperclip” and has had great cars in almost every race this season (just not the best luck).

4. Jeff Gordon - Gordon isn’t as good as his teammate here, but he’s damn close. He’s made 36 starts at this track, coming away with 29 top tens and seven wins. He finished 20th in the fall race last season after being wrecked by Kurt Busch (possible payback from Sonoma) and that broke his streak of fifteen top 10s. I expect Gordon to start that streak again this week, and a top five is definitely within his grasps. I think Gordon has been average this season (except for his win in Phoenix) so keep an eye on him this weekend, but it’s real hard to go against his history at this track.

5. Carl Edwards - I’m really liking how smooth Carl’s season is going so far and I think he will have another strong run this weekend. He didn’t have an awesome-fast car in Fontana last week, but still came away with a 6th-place finish (which was higher than he ran all day). Edwards finished 8th in both Martinsville races in 2010 but has just four top 10s to his name in his thirteen starts here. He’s never led a lap here but that could change this weekend. He will be the best pick of the Roush-Fenway Racing camp this weekend.

6. Kyle Busch - Don’t make the mistake I have in the past two weeks and not pick Rowdy Busch in fantasy. He isn’t stellar at this track, but between him and Carl Edwards, there are no other drivers that are on as hot of streaks as these two. Kyle’s best finish at Martinsville is 4th (and he’s done that four times) and he has finished there in two of the past three races here. He’s a little hit-or-miss at this track, with five top 5s and five finishes worse than 20th in his twelve starts. Which Kyle Busch will show up this weekend? I’d bet on the “hit” one.

7. Ryan Newman - In case you didn’t realize this, Ryan Newman is 2nd in points and has as many top 10s and top 5s as Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards (four and three, respectively). “The Rocketman” is a great qualifier at Martinsville–with an average start of 9th and three career poles–and has finished in the top five in 33% of his starts here. Over the past four races at “The Paperclip,” Newman has three finishes in the top seven, and I think it’s very possible he will end up right around there on Sunday. His average driver rating of 98.4 is seventh-best in the series at this track over the past two years.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If you’ve read anything from me over the past few weeks, you know I’ve been high on Junior, and that won’t change this week. He didn’t have a great race at Auto Club Speedway, but he still managed a 12th-place finish at one of his worst tracks. Martinsville is Dale Jr’s third-best track and I think he will have a similar race to last fall: lead some laps and get a solid top ten finish. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008, Earnhardt has four top tens in six starts at “The Paperclip,” and in his career he averages right around a 14th-place finish.

9. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has made 46 starts at Martinsville and has come away with 24 top tens as a result. He has two wins here and has finished in the top eight in three of the past four races here. Martin once again showed his inconsistency in Fontana and that is the reason he is ranked 9th for my preview. He was super fast in practice last week and had many people thinking he had a shot at a top five, only to finish 20th. Like teammate Jeff Gordon, I don’t think Martin is running as well as he should this season. Over the past two years, Mark has the sixth-best average driver rating at this track, but I would consider him a risky pick this week.

10. Jeff Burton - The #31 team has gotten off to a slow start this season, but their finishes have been getting progressively better and I think this is the week that they get their first top ten of the 2011 season. In the two races at Martinsville last year, Burton led 140 and 134 laps but had disappointing finishes of 20th and 9th. He has just one win at this track (in 1997) but hasn’t finished outside of the top twenty since 2006. Burton’s career average finish at “The Paperclip” is 13.8 and he has had the fifth-best average driver rating over the past four races here.

11. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer finally got a top ten last week and I think he could challenge for a second this week at Martinsville. He has just one top five finish in ten starts at this track, but he’s recorded top ten finishes in five of the last seven races here. Clint has never led a lap at “The Paperclip,” so don’t expect him to challenge for a win, but a top ten won’t be out of the question. His last four spring races here have given Bowyer finishes of 7th, 5th, 10th, and 11th.

12. Tony Stewart - Last year was an off-year for “Smoke” at Martinsville, with finishes of 26th and 24th, but he has won here twice and his career average finish is a respectable 13.1. In his past eleven starts at Martinsville, Stewart has just three finishes outside of the top fifteen and none worse than 26th. Over the past two seasons, Tony has the ninth-best average driver rating at this track.

13. Juan Montoya - Believe it or not, Montoya actually hasn’t been terrible at “The Paperclip.” He’s made eight starts at this track and seven of them have ended in top 20 finishes, although only two have been in the top ten. Juan has been in the top ten in points all season thus far and I don’t think that will change this week. His finishes of 36th and 19th in 2010 at Martinsville are the two worst in Montoya’s Sprint Cup career.

14. Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” nearly won the race here last March and was one of only four drivers to score top tens in both trips to Martinsville in 2010. His first trip to “The Paperclip” gave him a 32nd-place finish but he backed that up with a 12-place effort later in 2009. Logano hasn’t been stellar this year, so proceed with caution, but statistically this is Joey’s fourth-best track. He needs a good run to get his season back on track and this could be the week that Logano breaks through.

15. Paul Menard - Paul continued his great start to the season at Fontana with yet another career-best finish, but for him to accomplish that this week it may be a bit tougher. Last season, while running for Richard Petty Motorsports, Menard collected finishes of 14th and 13th. This season he has Richard Childress Racing power under the hood, and they have had success here in the past. Will we see another career-best finish for Paul Menard this week? His worst finish at Martinsville has been 27th in his seven starts here.

Underdogs Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

Jamie McMurray - McMurray has finished in the top eleven in three of the past four races here and he has nine top 10s in his sixteen career starts. Word of caution: because he hasn’t ran well this season at all, Jamie will be a risky pick this week, but he’s not terrible at this track: statistically this is McMurray’s fifth-best venue.

Brian Vickers - Dang was Vickers and his Red Bull Toyota fast in Fontana. Will they be able to turn that into a good run at Martinsville? We will find out. Vickers has three finishes of 11th or better in his past four starts here and finished 6th in the spring race in 2010. Kasey Kahne drove this car to a 14th-place finish last October at this track.

Brad Keselowski - He’s made just two starts at this track but Keselowski has finishes of 12th and 10th to his name. This year, BK finished 15th at Phoenix and 18th at Bristol, so a top 15 isn’t out of the question this week, but I doubt he will be able to score another top ten.

David Ragan - I usually only use Ragan on oval tracks but he hasn’t been terrible at Martinsville. Last year he finished 16th and 17th and in 2008 he posted finishes of 11th and 13th. He finished 16th at Bristol a few weeks ago, the first short track race of the season.

Those To Avoid Entering The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:

Regan Smith - Smith finished 14th here in 2008 but that is his only finish inside the top 20 in his career at this track. Darrell Waltrip keeps saying how good of a season this guy is having, but I just don’t see it: he’s 30th in points and the only race he looked impressive was Daytona. Regan’s cumulative driver ratings over the past three races don’t even add up to Denny Hamlin’s driver rating in the fall race last year.

David Reutimann - Reutty hasn’t even looked good on the tracks where he is expected to perform well so there’s no reason to think he will have a good run on a track that he has an average finish around 26th at. Last year at this track Reutimann finished 27th and 28th. Save him for the intermediates.

Kurt Busch - I expected a 25th-place finish at best last week out of Kurt but he somehow pulled off a 17th. He may do that again this week, but I’m not about to put him on my roster. Busch’s last top ten came in 2005, and while he has one win here, just 4 of Kurt’s 21 starts here have given him a top ten finish.

Martin Truex, Jr. - He finished 5th here last spring, but one good race doesn’t make you a great driver (I’m talking about you, too, Trevor Bayne). His average finish is 22.5 at this track and three of Truex’s last four starts here have given him finishes of either 28th or 29th. He looks like his 2010 self thus far, so don’t be surprised to see him near the top of the practice speed charts this weekend. Just don’t be fooled by him.

I’m just hoping for an enjoyable race this week, and I’m sure many others are as well. I nearly fell asleep multiple times during the race last week, but I must say, those last ten or so laps were intense. I will post my final predictions for the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 over at ifantasyrace.com so be sure to check those out, and make sure you join NASCARNation if you haven’t already. Good luck to everyone’s fantasy rosters this week, and if you want my opinion between two drivers where you don’t know who to pick, feel free to send me a tweet.

Martinsville Scouting Report

Ten Drivers To Watch

1. Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has five career wins at NASCAR’s oldest track and the only time he finished outside the top ten was his first career start here.

2. Denny Hamlin – Won the last three Martinsville races and has led +170 laps in three out of the last four races. Drivers have break problems at this track, not engine problems.

3. Jeff Gordon – Has only finished outside the top ten once at Martinsville since 2002. The track has taken a chunk out of his car more than once so watch out.

4. Kevin Harvick – Last year he finished third in the fall and was extremely strong in the spring race (started on pole and led 57 laps before mechanical problems brought a swift end).

5. Kyle Busch – Two fourth place finishes in the last three Martinsville races.

6. Juan Pablo Montoya – Has had past success at Martinsville and had the car to beat in 2009′s fall race. Don’t overlook him.

7. Carl Edwards – Finished 8th in both races last year. He’s even better this year so I’ll bump him up one spot.

8. Ryan Newman – He’s finished in the top seven in three out of the last four Martinsville races. Ryan Newman is also a good qualifier at this venue.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – This is  one of his better tracks. Last fall he was very strong and led 90 laps. Since 2002 he has ten top tens at Martinsville. He’s finished on the lead lap in all but one race since 2005.

10. Tony Stewart – Some risk here but Smoke is a former winner.

TheSpread.com odds to win: Denny Hamlin 3/1, Jimmie Johnson 9/2, Kyle Busch 8/1, Jeff Gordon 8/1, Kevin Harvick 8/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Carl Edwards 12/1, Jeff Burton 15/1, Clint Bowyer 20/1, Mark Martin 25/1

How important is qualifying here…..

Pinch yourself because I think it’s a tad overrated. It’s certainly an advantage to start up front but in this race there will be tons of pit strategy and it will really shuffle up the field. In two of Denny Hamlin’s recent Martinsville wins he started in the high teens (19th and 17th).

How to approach the race…..

The best way to approach the race is to look at average finishes. I know it doesn’t sound glamorous, but that’s what really counts this week. This is a drivers track where the man behind the wheel in the difference maker.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2010 Tums Fast Relief 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	5	14.69
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jeff Gordon	20	10.97
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	20	10.97
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Denny Hamlin	1	11.91
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	5	12.94
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	5	10.72
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	20	10.97
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	1	13.31
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Denny Hamlin	1	14.13
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	20	11.50
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jeff Gordon	20	9.88
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	5	14.53
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Denny Hamlin	1	12.03
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	4	12.63
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	3	13.72
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	5	11.25
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	5	12.38
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Denny Hamlin	1	11.75
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Denny Hamlin	1	15.31

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2010 Tums Fast relief 500

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	6	14.53
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	11	13.09
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jamie McMurray	11	18.91
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Marcos Ambrose	34	10.75
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	2	14.97
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Ryan NewmanJamie McMurray	30 11	14.3813.66
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	7	14.56
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Ryan Newman	30	11.09
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	David Reutimann	27	14.25
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jamie McMurray	11	12.72
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Joey Logano	6	14.63
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Joey Logano	6	14.88
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	11	15.69
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	2	17.72
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Ryan Newman	30	14.75
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Marcos Ambrose	34	16.09
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	30	18.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	6	12.16

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