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2009 Average Finish at Flat Tracks - Martinsville, Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Below are 24 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish this season at four flat tracks: Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

The four flat tracks vary in length but do feature similar banking. Over the last nine races this season, three have been on flat tracks: Richmond is a little shorter (0.75 miles) and banked 14 degrees; New Hampshire is a little longer (1.06 miles) and most recently, Martinsville which is much shorter (0.53 miles) both are banked 12 degrees. Phoenix is 1.00 miles and banked 11 degrees and held its first race in April, the eighth race of the season.

	MVILLE 1	PHX	Rich 1	NH 1	RICH 2	NH 2	MVILLE2	AVG
Mark Martin	7	1	5	14	4	1	8	5.7
Denny Hamlin	2	6	14	15	1	2	1	5.9
Tony Stewart	3	2	2	5	17	14	9	7.4
Kurt Busch	18	3	12	3	2	6	17	8.7
Jeff Gordon	4	25	8	2	3	15	5	8.9
Kyle Busch	24	17	1	7	5	5	4	9
Jimmie Johnson	1	4	36	9	11	4	2	9.6
Ryan Newman	6	16	4	29	10	7	7	11.3
Juan Pablo Montoya	12	24	10	12	19	3	3	11.9
Clint Bowyer	5	26	18	20	6	10	19	14.9
David Reutimann	20	8	28	4	20	12	16	15.4
Jamie McMurray	10	11	7	33	27	18	6	16.0
Jeff Burton	15	15	3	31	18	16	15	16.1
Greg Biffle	28	5	17	18	13	9	25	16.4
Joey Lagano	32	21	19	1	14	21	12	17.1
Casey Mears	21	20	9	11	30	13	18	17.4
Brian Vickers	33	19	15	35	7	11	11	18.7
Marcos Ambrose	14	14	11	23	22	20	27	18.7
Carl Edwards	26	10	26	19	15	17	20	19.0
Sam Hornish, Jr.	34	9	6	8	8	37	36	19.7
Matt Kenseth	23	27	13	22	25	23	14	21.0
Kasey Kahne	19	13	29	10	12	38	32	21.9
Kevin Harvick	11	30	34	34	9	32	10	22.9
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	8	31	27	13	21	35	29	23.4

NASCAR Power Rankings: Chase Edition Week 7

Martinsville

Who's Up	Who's Down
Biggest Gain This Week: Ryan Newman: 10th to 8th	Biggest Drop This Week: Kasey Kahne: 7th to 9th
No new drivers this week.	No drivers dropped out this week.

Rank: 1st Jimmie Johnson #48 Last Week: 1 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jimmie Johnson- 6 Wins, 21 Top Tens Johnson will race so conservatively at Talladega that I personally wouldn't be surprised if he settles for a 15th place finish. Last year he drove the most conservative race that I ever seen out of the 48.

Rank: 2nd Jeff Gordon #24 Last Week: 2 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 23 Top Tens Gordon now sits 150 points out of the lead so he needs maximum points every race just to even put himself in a position to gain on the 48. I think Gordon will beat Johnson at two of the last four races, but that won't be enough.

Rank: 3rd Juan Pablo Montoya #42 Last Week: 4 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Juan Pablo Montoya - 7 Top Fives, 17 Top Tens Another week, another good finish. I'm amazed that they've had so many good races in the Chase and yet somehow they're 200 points back. If he didn't have problems at Lowes then he would be within 100 points .

Rank: 4th Mark Martin #5 Last Week: 3 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Mark Martin - 5 Wins, 19 Top Tens According to Martin after Talladega is when we'll first be able to hear about how he views his Championship hopes. Mark has only raced here once since 2006, and that didn't turn out so good.

Rank: 5th Tony Stewart #14 Last Week: 6 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Tony Stewart - 4 Wins, 22 Top Tens It's not mathematically official yet but in my opinion it's over for the 14. Stewart may be able to make up a considerable amount of points on the 48 at Talladega, but I think he'll lose them at Texas and Phoenix.

Rank: 6th Kurt Busch #2 Last Week: 5 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Kurt Busch - 1 Win, 18 Top Tens Statistically speaking Kurt Busch is the top driver in the series at Talladega. He's never won here, but he does have an knack for finishing races at Talladega.

Rank: 7th Denny Hamlin #11 Last Week: 8 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Denny Hamlin - 3 Wins, 17 Top Tens On Sunday Hamlin captured his second career win at Martinsville and his third of the season. Now the question in my mind is when will Hamlin win at a track that isn't either flat or short?

Rank: 8th Ryan Newman #39 Last Week: 10 Change: +2 Driver Page | Articles

Ryan Newman - 5 Top Fives, 15 Top Tens Ryan Newman collected his second pole of the season at Martinsville and he also tied his Chase best finish of 7th. Newman is also currently 7th in points.

Rank: 9th Kasey Kahne #9 Last Week: 7 Change: -2 Driver Page | Articles

Kasey Kahne - 2 Wins, 13 Top Tens One of my Talladega rules of thumb is that if your in a bad streaking heading into Talladega don't expect to get spared from the big one. In 11 races at Talladega Kahne only has 1 top ten finish.

Rank: 10th Greg Biffle #16 Last Week: 9 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Greg Biffle - 9 Top Fives, 14 Top Tens Greg Biffle says that he doesn't like Martinsville and he went out there and proved it. I sure would love to hear thoughts on Talladega where in 13 races he only has 1 top ten and 5 DNF's.

Rank: 11th Carl Edwards #99 Last Week: 11 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Carl Edwards - 7 Top Fives, 13 Top Tens Carl Edwards had a little better day going for him then his final finish position shows. It wasn't to much better though. This team can't wait until the season is over. I expect them to be really good in 2010, but this year is a complete flop.

Rank: 12th Brian Vickers #83 Last Week: 12 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Brian Vickers - 1 Win, 13 Top Tens With his 11th place finish at Martinsville Vickers tied his 2008 last ten races best finish (also at Martinsville). History doesn't repeat itself though because the 83 team wasn't caught cheating this year.

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Tums Fast Relief 500 from Martinsville

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	7.35
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	5	7.84
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	2	9.84
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.03
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.13
Gerritt Ritt	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	17	10.16
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.23
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Jeff Gordon	5	10.68
Eric Brewer		Jeff Gordon	5	11.42
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Jimmie Johnson	2	11.65
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	2	11.81
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	5	11.87
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.06
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	5	12.52
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.10
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	2	15.77
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	4	18.52

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Tums Fast Relief 500

The fantasy strategy at Martinsville is simple: start drivers who are great at Martinsville. Unlike a lot of other tracks, the numbers do not lie at Martinsville. The same guys tend to get to the front– and stay there. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin all have career average finishes of 8.0 or better. Tony Stewart, Juan Pablo Montoya, Clint Bowyer, Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. are all between 12.1 and 13.3.

There are other short tracks on the schedule but none are close to Martinsville’s unique paper clip shape. New Hampshire Motor Speedway is essentially a bigger version of Martinsville and braking is key at both venues. New Hampshire held its second race to open the Chase.

One interesting loop data statistic from the March race at Martinsville is the number of drivers who were in the top-15 during all 500 laps; there were a total of five (Hamlin, Stewart, Gordon, Bowyer and Kevin Harvick). In 2008, only three total drivers accomplished this in either of the two races: David Ragan in March; Johnson and Carl Edwards in October.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Six-time winner at Martinsville. 11 top-fives, 14 top-10 finishes in 15 career starts. Lead an average of 173.7 laps per race and won five of the last seven Martinsville races. Won the March race. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Strong qualifier at Martinsville, won three of the last four poles. Seven-time winner (’05 sweep, ‘03 sweep, ‘99, ‘97, ‘96. Finished fourth in the March race. Top-five finishes in nine straight Martinsville races, lead an average of 100.6 laps in each. Y!-A2
3. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’06, ‘00). Better in March: ‘08 fifth/26th -place finishes; ‘07 seventh/13th-place finishes. Finished third in the March race. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Martinsville (’00, ‘92) Finished seventh in the March race, first start since ‘06. Y!-A3
5. Denny Hamlin… Won last year’s March race at Martinsville. Runner-up in this year’s March race, led 296 laps. Average finish of 3.2 over the last six Martinsville races. Y!-B2
6. Clint Bowyer… Good qualifier at Martinsville, started in the top-five two of the last three races. Average finish of 8.8 since 2007. Started third, finished fifth at Martinsville in March- both career-bests. Y!-A4
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 12.6 over five career starts at Martinsville. Finished 12th in the March race. Y!-B3
8. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 10.0 over the last four races at Martinsville. Finished 11th in the March race.
9. Ryan Newman… Finished sixth in the March race at Martinsville, average running position of 16th. Average finish of 21.0 in ‘08 races, 8.0 in ‘07. Y!-B4
10. Kurt Busch… Won at Martinsville in ‘02 but only two top-10 finishes since. Average finish of 24.0 since ‘06. Finished 18th in the March race, average running position of ninth. Y!-B5
11. Matt Kenseth… Finished 23rd at March race at Martinsville. Finished 30th and eighth last year, 7.5 average in ‘07.
12. Kyle Busch… Three top-five finishes in his first six career starts at Martinsville- average finish of 30.3 in the last three.
13. Kasey Kahne… Finished 19th in the March race at Martinsville. Last top-10 in ‘06, average finish of 21.8 since. Y!-B6
14. Marcos Ambrose… Started 24th, finished 14th in the March race, first career start at Martinsville. Y!-C1
15. Jeff Burton… Won at Martinsville in ‘97. Average finish of 10.6 since ‘07. Finished 15th in the March race.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Five finishes of eighth or better over the last seven races at Martinsville. Runner-up last year, finished eighth in the March race. Y!-B7
17. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Only two career top-10 finishes at Martinsville, two were in 2008. Finished 21st in the March race. Y!-B8
18. David Reutimann… Finished 20th in the March race at Martinsville but had an average running position of 11th; has never finished better than 17th.
19. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 20.0 over the last three Martinsville races. Finished 28th in the March race.
20. Carl Edwards… Good qualifier at Martinsville. Started fourth, finished third last year. Started fifth in March, finished 26th- average running position of 18th.
21. Brian Vickers… Finished 33rd at March race at Martinsville, average running position of 13th. Average finish of 17.0 in ‘08 races, no starts in ‘07.
22. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Finished 15th at last year’s Martinsville October race, ninth in the March race this season. Y!-C2
23. Joey Logano… Started 34th, finished 32nd in the March race, first career start at Martinsville.
24. Martin Truex Jr…. One top-10 in seven career starts at Martinsville, 23.3 average finish.
25. Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Two top-10 finishes in his last three starts at Martinsville. Finished 10th in the March race.
26. Paul Menard… Average finish of 23.0 in four career starts at Martinsville.
27. David Ragan… Finished 11th and 13th at Martinsville last year, 27th in the March race.
28. Michael Waltrip… Long shot value play. Finished 13th in the March race at Martinsville, 18th in last two October races.
29. Reed Sorenson… Finished 36th and 35th at Martinsville last year, 17th in the March race. Y!-C3
30. David Stremme… Started and finished 22nd in the March race at Martinsville.
31. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 39.6 in his last three October races at Martinsville. Finished 31st in the March race.
32. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘02. Finished 16th in the March race at Martinsville, 31.8 average finish in ‘07, ‘08 starts. Y!-C4
33. Scott Speed… Average finish of 34.5 in two career starts at Martinsville.
34. Sam Hornish Jr…. Has finished 34th in his last two starts at Martinsville.
35. Robby Gordon… Has finished 34th or worse in eight straight starts at Martinsville.
36. Travis Kvapil… Long shot value play. Average finish of 18.5 in ‘08 races at Martinsville.
37. John Andretti… Won in ‘99. Finished 35th in the March race at Martinsville, 33rd in ‘07.
38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.7 in six career starts at Martinsville.
39. Michael McDowell… Started 34th, finished 26th in last year’s March Martinsville race- first ever Cup start.
40. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. DNFs in two straight starts at Martinsville.
41. Sterling Marlin… Likely start and park. Failed to qualify in last year’s October Martinsville race.
42. Dave Blaney… DNFs in two of the last three races at Martinsville.
43. Mike Wallace… No starts at Martinsville since ‘05.
44. Derrike Cope… No starts at Martinsville since ‘05.

NASCAR Power Rankings: Chase Edition Week 6

Charlotte

Who's Up	Who's Down
Biggest Gain This Week: Kasey Kahne: 10th to 7th	Biggest Drop This Week: Carl Edwards: 9th to 11th
No new drivers this week.	No drivers dropped out this week.

Rank: 1st Jimmie Johnson #48 Last Week: 1 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jimmie Johnson- 6 Wins, 20 Top Tens All of Jimmie Johnson's biggest competitors fell wayside at Lowes and the 48 team capitalized on the situation with a win. The only team that can beat the 48 team right now is themselves.

Rank: 2nd Jeff Gordon #24 Last Week: 4 Change: +2 Driver Page | Articles

Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 22 Top Tens Performance/ Schedule wise I believe that my pre-Chase championship pick is the only team that has anything for the 48 right now. He'll need a little bit of help to catch up, but when it he does the 48 will be in trouble.

Rank: 3rd Mark Martin #5 Last Week: 2 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Mark Martin- 5 Wins, 18 Top Tens If your a Mark Martin fan then you knew the bubble would burst somehow. I'm not saying that he's out of it yet, but the remaining races in my opinion give the others drivers an edge over the 5 team.

Rank: 4th Juan Pablo Montoya #42 Last Week: 3 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Juan Pablo Montoya- 6 Top Fives, 16 Top Tens Juan Pablo Montoya arguably had the fastest car at Lowes until his COT tank didn't hold up very well to the damage. Montoya now sits 6th in the points 195 points out of the lead.

Rank: 5th Kurt Busch #2 Last Week: 5 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Kurt Busch- 1 Win, 18 Top Tens Lowes was a tough track on the Chase drivers and only 4 of them finished in the top ten. Kurt luckily was one of them, but don't expect Martinsville to be an easy task for this team.

Rank: 6th Tony Stewart #14 Last Week: 6 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Tony Stewart- 4 Wins, 21 Top Tens Martinsville and Talledega are "do or die" races for this team. If Stewart doesn't finish in the top 5 in both of these races and gain ground on Johnson then his Chase chances are effectively zero.

Rank: 7th Kasey Kahne #9 Last Week: 10 Change: +3 Driver Page | Articles

Kasey Kahne- 2 Wins, 13 Top Tens If Kasey Kahne didn't have problems on the race restarts then the 9 might very well have been the car in victory lane. I expect Kahne to move up to about 7th in the points this season before his points progression stops.

Rank: 8th Denny Hamlin #11 Last Week: 7 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Denny Hamlin- 2 Wins, 16 Top Tens Hamlin had another good run but now he's back to 11th in the point standings. If you take away Hamlin's rookie Chase appearance then I believe Hamlin almost has to fall into people's conversations of who's the biggest choke in the Chase.

Rank: 9th Greg Biffle #16 Last Week: 8 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Greg Biffle- 9 Top Fives, 14 Top Tens Somehow Greg Biffle has managed to score the 8th most points in the series over the last 6 races. At Martinsville I expect this team to have a rough day. Roush cars usually always struggle at this track.

Rank: 10th Ryan Newman #39 Last Week: 11 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Ryan Newman- 5 Top Fives, 14 Top Tens If Newman's going to win a race this year then I believe it will have to happen either here at Martinsivlle or Talledega. These are both "skill tracks" which Newman has excelled at this year.

Rank: 11th Carl Edwards #99 Last Week: 9 Change: -2 Driver Page | Articles

Carl Edwards- 7 Top Fives, 13 Top Tens It's shocking how uncompetitive Carl's been in the Chase. Last year Edwards was a challenger all the way until the end and this year they're not even close to being competitive.

Rank: 12th Brian Vickers #83 Last Week: 12 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Brian Vickers- 1 Win, 13 Top Tens Jimmie Johnson isn't the only driver who's on the verge of making history this year. Vickers is on pace to easily surpass Hamlin's 2007 Chase record of finishing 580 points behind the champion. Vickers currently is 485 points behind.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table

This table designed primarily to help fantasy NASCAR owners with deciding on how to spend their remaining driver starts as we progress through the Chase for the Sprint Cup. The table ranks the 26 most relevant drivers by their average finish at the eight Chase tracks that held their first Cup event earlier in the season.

	Loudon	Dover	Fontana	Lowe’s	Martinsville	Talladega	Texas	Phoenix	AVG
Tony Stewart	5	2	8	19	3	23	4	2	8.25
Jimmie Johnson	9	1	9	13	1	30	2	4	8.63
Kurt Busch	3	5	5	34	18	6	8	3	10.25
Greg Biffle	18	3	4	20	28	7	3	5	11.00
David Reutimann	4	18	14	1	20	26	11	8	12.75
Ryan Newman	29	8	28	2	6	3	15	16	13.38
Carl Edwards	19	7	7	4	26	24	10	10	13.38
Matt Kenseth	22	4	1	10	23	17	5	27	13.63
Denny Hamlin	15	36	6	11	2	22	12	6	13.75
Jeff Gordon	2	26	2	14	4	37	1	25	13.88
Kasey Kahne	10	6	12	7	19	36	19	13	15.25
Kyle Busch	7	23	3	6	24	25	18	17	15.38
Juan Montoya	12	30	11	8	12	20	7	24	15.50
Mark Martin	14	10	40	17	7	43	6	1	17.25
Joey Logano	1	15	26	9	32	9	30	21	17.88
Brian Vickers	35	25	10	5	33	8	16	19	18.88
Jeff Burton	31	16	32	25	15	10	9	15	19.13
Sam Hornish Jr.	8	13	23	16	34	34	17	9	19.25
Casey Mears	11	9	24	33	21	16	21	20	19.38
Marcos Ambrose	23	20	22	26	14	4	41	14	20.50
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	13	12	39	40	8	2	20	31	20.63
Clint Bowyer	20	11	19	36	5	39	22	26	22.25
Jamie McMurray	33	14	16	21	10	42	38	11	23.13
Martin Truex Jr.	37	21	27	23	29	33	25	7	25.25
AJ Allmendinger	32	29	29	32	9	35	34	35	29.38
Kevin Harvick	34	17	38	41	11	38	27	30	29.50

We Done Crashed Like Robby Gordon in a China Shop

No offense Robby - I am a big fan - but I wanted to get someone’s attention.

Due to a crashed drive in our server arsenal, OnPitRow.com and as a result, the One and Done NASCAR fantasy Game, were offline for much of Saturday.

All is well now and service has been back for several hours. As a result of all this, we extended the deadline to make a pick for the game until 2 PM EDT today. That’s about as long as we can hold it folks. So, if you were waiting until after qualifying, to pick on Saturday - I understand this BTW - you can still do so now.

If, for any reason, you can’t get to a computer or have some other issue, call me at ***_***_**** before 1 PM EDT today, and I’ll make your pick for you. You will need your user name and password, so that I can access your dashboard. This phone number will self-destruct at 1:01 PM EDT.

NASCAR Video from Bristol and a Martinsville Preview

We have some great NASCAR video snippets from the post race press conferences with Kyle Busch, Jimmy Johnson and Denny Hamlin for the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway and several pre-race preview comments from Clint Bowyer, Bobby Labonte, Kurt Busch and Jeff Burton. Click here to watch them all.

These vids might just help you make your One and Done fantasy racing pick this week for the big paperclip.

If you are thinking of doing any actual NASCAR betting you may be better served by finding actual NASCAR odds at a service that is involved in online wagering or something. We, most assuredly, are not.

Martinsville Drivers Win in Many Brands

Nine of the last eleven races at the paperclip shaped track in Martinsville, Virginia have been won by drivers sporting the Chevrolet brand.

Chevy hasn’t always been the dominate nameplate.  Martinsville started holding NASCAR Cup level races in 1949.  In the 119 Cup races held there have been eleven different brands seeing victory circle.  Even the Fabulous Hudson Hornet tasted victory there twice in 1952.  Mercury also got a pair of wins; one in 1968 with Cale Yarborough and the other in 1973 with David Pearson.

Toyota picked up its lone win with Kyle Busch at the Spring race this year.  Chrysler and Buick own three wins each.  Chrysler’s came early on in the Fifties while the Eighties were kind to the Buicks.  The General Motors brands of Pontiac and Oldsmobile were the cars to beat four and eight times respectively,

Dodge and Plymouth have combined for 26 wins over the years with twelve of those at the hands of Richard Petty.  Petty had two wins in a Ford in 1969 while feuding with Chrysler.  The Blue Oval boys have 24 other victories as well.  The first coming with Fast Freddy Lorenzen behind the wheel in 1961 and the most recent by Kurt Busch in 2002.

Once again Chevrolet drivers have had the upper hand at a race track.  Thirty-eight percent of all wins at the half miler have been with Chevy sheet metal.  A total of forty-five wins greatly out numbers its nearest rival.  Buck Baker was the first to taste victory and started a string of four consecutive wins beginning in 1957.  Jimmy Johnson is the most recent winner, capping off seven straight Chevy wins that he began in the Fall of 2004.

So once again the numbers favor a win coming from Jimmy Johnson.  This race and the championship seem to be his to lose.  He has wins at the paperclip and he drives the right car.

photo credit:  Jason Smith/Getty Images

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Martinsville Speedway

So thanks to some shrewd picking last week - a fleet of Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Jeff Burton - my picks from last week finished 6th, 4th, and won at Charlotte. Picking three guys just isn’t fair, especially when my “dark horse” won eight races earlier this year, my “sleeper” is 2nd in points, and my lead pick has been the same for the past couple weeks. No more. From now on, I only pick one driver a week.

We head to Martinsville Speedway to kick off the second half of this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup. Martinsville is the stock car racing equivalent of taking the Monaco Formula 1 track’s famous hairpin 1,000 times. It’s a punishing track for both man and machine. Only the best can say they’ve conquered Martinsville - and even some of NASCAR’s all-time greatest short track drivers, such as Terry Labonte, have never won at the bullring.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Martinsville:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 at Martinsville since April 14, 2002. He hasn’t finished outside the top 5 at Martinsville since April 10, 2005. He hasn’t led less than 100 laps at a Martinsville race since October 23, 2005. To top it off, his average finish here is 6.0; for drivers with 10 or more career starts here, that’s second only to Lee Petty‘s 5.5. You get the picture.

2. Jeff Burton: Burton hasn’t won here since 1997, but he’s led laps in both of the series’ last visits to Martinsville. He finished 6th and 12th here last year, and he was 3rd earlier this season.

3. Greg Biffle: True, Da Biff’s never crashed out at Martinsville, or suffered brake failure. But his only top 10 in 11 starts here was in this race last year, when he finished 7th. Biffle’s as risky a pick as it gets this week, unless he has another flash of luck.

4. Carl Edwards: Carl’s got no momentum after the past two weeks, has never led a lap at Martinsville, and has a pedestrian average finish of 19.1 here. True, he hasn’t failed to finish on the lead lap since 2005, but just completing all 500 circuits on a regular basis here isn’t enough to make you a smart pick. Edwards’ best finish at Martinsville is 9th.

5. Clint Bowyer: The good news: In five starts and 2506 possible laps here, Clint has only failed to complete four circuits. The bad: Like Edwards, he’s never led a lap, his best finish here is 9th, and that’s not enough to make him anything more than a backup pick.

6. Kevin Harvick: Anyone remember the time Happy got suspended here after a Truck Series incident? That was pretty cool.

All kidding aside, Harvick can be solid, if not spectacular, at Martinsville when he doesn’t run into issues. It’s been four years since he led here - when he led 104 laps and finished 8th - but in his last six starts here, five of them have seen the No. 29 come home 15th or better. Slightly better than Edwards and Bowyer, for sure, but his performance still leaves a little to be desired.

7. Tony Stewart: In his last six attempts at Martinsville, Stewart’s worst finish is 13th. In that same timeframe, he has four top 5s and a win, which occurred in spring 2006. Of Chase drivers, Stewart’s average finish of 11.9 in 19 career starts is fourth best. After two straight weeks of decent runs and double-digit laps led, Stewart has the momentum to capitalize this weekend.

8. Jeff Gordon: Though eclipsed by protégé Johnson, Gordon’s average finish of 7.0 in 31 starts isn’t half bad. Gordon knows how to get around the track - his worst starting spot was 25th, way back in 1993, and he has seven poles, including poles in the last two races here. He also hasn’t finished outside the top 10 here since October 2002, and has led at least one lap at the track every year since 2001, inclusive. Given his below-average season this year, Gordon may be a steal for this weekend.

9. Kyle Busch: Despite a poor finish here earlier this year, Shrub’s actually been relatively decent at Martinsville throughout his career. He led laps in both races last year, finishing 4th in each event. His average finish of 16.7 is brought down by an overheating issue in 2005 and an early spin this past spring. Busch’s past record here, combined with momentum from a 4th place finish last week, hint at a solid run this weekend.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junebug hasn’t failed to complete a lap here since October 2004, when he crashed late in the race. He’s also led laps in each of the past three Martinsville events, leading a race-high 146 earlier this year on the way to a 6th place finish. It also helps that Hendrick Motorsports usually dominates at Martinsville. Even without momentum after a string of poor runs, Junior should be a factor to win.

11. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth rarely leads laps at Martinsville (23 total since 2004), and rarely scores the sort of top finishes one would hope for here (two top 10s since 2004), but he’s also only failed to complete 11 laps since 2002. Usually Kenseth finishes inside the top 20 here (11 out of 17 starts), but there are definitely better drivers out there.

12. Denny Hamlin: With an average finish of 9.5 in six starts, it’s obvious that Hamlin’s good at Martinsville. Only once has he finished outside the top 10. Subtract that accident-induced 37th place finish from his records, and his average finish is a solid 4.0. Given the past few weeks, Denny may be a bit of a shaky pick, but if he drives up to his track record, he could definitely surprise a few people.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Picking Johnson is too easy. Despite his recent struggles, Gordon’s also almost too certain to do well this weekend. Even suggesting Denny Hamlin feels like a cop-out.

I’m going to go with the interesting pick and say that Kyle Busch will win this weekend. Busch has reset his focus on winning as many races as possible this year over NASCAR’s big three series. Last weekend’s Nationwide Series win and 4th place in Sprint Cup show that he still has the necessary fire inside to win. If his team has found its stride again as well, they could pull off the upset this weekend.

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