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Texas Follows Atlanta In More Ways Than One

Texas Motor Speedway has made the Chase more predictable. Immediately following Atlanta, just 2 races removed from Lowes, and with only Phoenix sandwiched in between it and Homestead, Texas serves as the place where the best remain on top - just ask the last 3 winners of the fall Atlanta race, as they’re in victory lane the very next week at Texas. For Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson, they haven’t minded a bit.

It’s downright scary how similar these two tracks have been, and look at the finishing order in the top 5 for each of these races:

2005
Atlanta - Texas
1. Edwards - Edwards
2. Gordon - Martin
3. Martin - Kenseth
4. Earnhardt Jr. - Mears
5. Kenseth - Johnson

2006
Atlanta - Texas
1. Stewart - Stewart
2. Johnson - Johnson
3. Earnhardt Jr. - Harvick
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Biffle - Bowyer

2007
Atlanta - Texas
1. Johnson - Johnson
2. Edwards - Kenseth
3. Sorenson - Truex
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Burton - Newman

The margins seem to be decreasing, but the winners have an uncanny knack for doubling up. Personally, I’d prefer the 2004 schedule to return in some way… Darlington took the penultimate spot in the Chase and Phoenix was third from the end. That’s my editorial soapbox. Let’s see where our champs finished:

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 6th

I went with Jimmie at Atlanta, and the end result was good fantasy-wise. Chase-wise, it was a bummer. Edwards did as much as he could to cut into the lead, slinging a car around the track and making the money move when it mattered. Not to mention that he flat dominated this race in the spring. However, I’m torn this week as I’d love to see the tradition continue for his sake, but I have a feeling it could be broken. I’d look for Carl and Jimmie to be strong again, but Denny Hamlin made an impressive run that could have easily landed him in the win column. I also expect to see Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton to be near the front after varying runs at Atlanta. This has been a Ford/Chevy battleground, and I see no reason for that to end.

Jamie McMurray could win here Sunday. In the last few weeks, the #26 has been on fire only to succumb to misfortune, whether it be parts failure or getting caught in a mess. He was fast at Lowes and ended strong at Atlanta, and is a smart sleeper pick. Another smart sleeper will be Juan Pablo Montoya. He had a piece at Atlanta as well. My third option would be AJ Allmendinger, unquestionably the best driver in the series without a full-time ride for 2009.

We’re going to delve down country music row for Texas. My pick this week is a perfect complement to the Texas moniker The Great American Speedway. It’s the Brooks & Dunn song “Only In America.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Give Me A “J” at Martinsville

Much like Lowes Motor Speedway, the conversation at Martinsville, especially in October, begins with Jimmie Johnson.

Simply put, the #48 Lowes Chevy lives at the front of the southern Virginia paperclip. I’ve witnessed many a race at the track, having grown up just across the border in North Carolina, and he gets around this place as good as anyone I’ve seen. I’ve stated in the past that some tracks suit some cars and some drivers, and Johnson has taken over the mantle of domination at Martinsville from Jeff Gordon. Those two have battled here in the past and always seem to be the guys to beat, which hasn’t been done here in October. That they’ve done it this long shows how strong the Hendrick organization is, although this year it could be a different story, I’m not going to bet on that happening yet.

As the stats show, this is a driver’s track that requires patience, skill, and determination. The Chase Champ has not had a finish of worse than 5th here, and that was in 2004 with Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart was the runner-up in 2005, with Johnson taking the win and the title in 2006 and 2007. The grandfather clocks are quite popular and when it comes down to it, this race is pivotal for all involved. I really like the added element of suspense the Chase had added to the last short-track race of the season.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Jeff Gordon
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

I finally called one last week, as Jeff Burton parlayed tire strategy into a win and return to the championship battle at LMS. This week, I feel like Johnson is as close to a lock as any race this season. However, I like to be different. For that reason I like another Chaser, Greg Biffle. Now, he doesn’t have a stellar record at Martinsville, and I recognize that going into the race. However, he knows he has to do well here, and I believe he is still the top challenger for the title left. That’s where I’m leaning. Your third option here should be obvious, it’s Gordon. If you have to ask why, you need a history lesson.

Sleepers here are hard to find. I’m looking at Ryan Newman in his swan song with Penske. He has run surprisingly well here in the past, and is as good a bet as any. Jamie McMurray could be a factor here as well, especially coming off a season-best run last week. This track is where he turned his season around in April.

Lastly, our song for Martinsville is my biggest throwback yet, Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone” from 1973. Take that for what you will, and wait until next week. I’ll see you at the track Sunday.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Lowe’s Motor Speedway

Thank you very much, Carl Edwards, for “really trying to screw up everyone’s day” at Talladega last week, because you kinda screwed up mine too. My lead pick, Jimmie Johnson, wound up 9th (the worst any of my lead picks has finished in the Chase). Sleeper Kevin Harvick wound up 20th, and dark horse Greg Biffle wound up 24th, both victims of Edwards’ aggressive bump drafting. (At least I didn’t pick Jeff Gordon or Denny Hamlin. Yikes!)

Thankfully, without the high speeds, restrictor plates, and unpredictability of Talladega, Charlotte is a much easier track to pick drivers on. Charlotte is built to the same specifications as Atlanta and Texas, and the three tracks combine for seven races per year (counting the All-Star event). For that reason, Charlotte’s a lot easier to predict than Talladega, and hopefully I’ll have better luck this week.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Charlotte:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has five wins and 11 top 10s in 14 races at Charlotte. He’s got three wins and six top 10s in the last six races this year. If those two factoids aren’t enough for you, the racetrack is named after Lowe’s, Johnson’s longtime sponsor. The No. 48 team always tries a little harder to win for their sponsor at Charlotte, and with Johnson as hot as he is, this weekend should be no exception.

2. Carl Edwards: Cousin Carl lost all his momentum from the past couple months with his wreck at Talladega. Fortunately, Charlotte is one of his best tracks, with an average finish of 7.6 in seven starts, six of which were top 10 finishes. There should be no reason that Edwards’ team can’t rebound this weekend, but after last weekend, he’s not the most well-liked driver in the garage area.

3. Greg Biffle: With only four top 10s in 11 starts at Lowe’s, Biffle isn’t exactly a popular pick this weekend. However, of those four top 10s, two came in 2005, when the No. 16 was the hottest team in the garage, and one came in this year’s Coca-Cola 600, where he finished 2nd. If Biffle’s team stays as hot as it has been, another great run at Charlotte may happen.

4. Jeff Burton: Burton’s finished in the top 10 at Charlotte in 14 out of 29 starts, with wins in 1999 and 2001. Since joining Richard Childress Racing, his average finish is a stellar 8.0 in 8 starts at Charlotte. As for momentum, Burton hasn’t finished worse than 9th in the past 5 races.

5. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer’s only decent finish at Charlotte was his 2nd in this race last year, finishing .579 seconds behind Jeff Gordon for the win. Excluding that race, Bowyer has never finished on the lead lap at Charlotte, and only led three laps in this race in 2006. Bowyer still has momentum from finishing 5th at Talladega last weekend, and they’ll have to cash it all in to have a chance this weekend.

6. Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished 2nd and 8th here in 2001, but ever since it’s been a downward spiral. His average finish of 20.7 at Charlotte is second worst of the 12 Chase drivers. He’s only led two laps here, none since 2003, and has only finished on the lead lap three times since 2001. Harvick’s anger after last week is another factor: will driving angry help or hurt him? After his altercation with Carl Edwards, it may not help.

7. Tony Stewart: Smoke has plenty of momentum from last week’s (unfairly awarded… sorry) win at Talladega. His two-car team has secured sponsorship for next year, so his mind is a little clearer. Now Stewart heads to Charlotte, a track at which he’s led laps at every year of his career except 2004 and 2006. He hasn’t ripped off top 5s here since the early stages of his career, but he always runs up front for at least part of the race. It’s all about what time he gets there and if he can hold on.

8. Jeff Gordon: Gordon has five wins here in 31 starts, including one in this race last year. Since 2002, his average finish is 7.4 in races which he’s completed. Granted, Gordon didn’t finish either Charlotte race in 2005 or 2006, and crashed out of last year’s Coca-Cola 600. If he doesn’t have bad luck like he did last week at Talladega, Gordon should be a contender.

9. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has led at least one lap in every Charlotte race from the 2006 Coca-Cola 600, inclusive. However, he hasn’t won at the track since the 2000 Coca-Cola 600, the first win of his Cup career. Eight top 10 finishes in 18 starts, nearly a 1 to 1 ratio of good finishes to bad, compares well with Burton and Gordon. Kenseth could surprise this weekend, if the No. 17 team doesn’t let last week’s disappointment at Talladega get to them.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: In 18 starts, Junebug has nine top 10s but no wins at Charlotte. He hasn’t done too well in the Chase so far, finishing 5th, 24th, 13th, and 28th in four races. On the bright side, he led 79 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 earlier this year, eventually finishing 5th. This weekend could be a shot for Junior to rebound and put himself back in the title hunt.

11. Kyle Busch: Busch won the Nationwide race this weekend, but he’s had terrible luck on the Cup side of things for a few weeks now. He also has the worst average finish of any Chase driver at Charlotte, a paltry 23.3, with 3rd-place finishes in his past two starts the only bright spots. One never knows when a driver will break out of a slump, however, and this could be the weekend for Shrub.

12. Denny Hamlin: Forget the stats for a minute. Hamlin isn’t up to 100% health after a hard hit at Talladega. To expect him to run well this weekend after sitting out the Nationwide race isn’t a smart idea. He almost skipped the Cup race, too, for the sake of his health. He’ll probably ride around this weekend, but not do much in the way of anything spectacular.

So, who would I pick to win this weekend? I hate picking Jimmie Johnson again, but the numbers don’t lie. This is the No. 48 team’s territory, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Jeff Burton, given his recent string of good luck and solid track record here, may also have a chance to win. For a dark horse, I’d suggest Kyle Busch - it’s about time he breaks out of his recent slump, and Biffle’s surprise win at Loudon suggests that nothing is impossible.

Image Credit: Icon Sports Media

Lowe’s Not a Fan of the Blue Oval

This weekend’s Bank of America 500 at Lowe’s Motor Speedway will be the one-hundredth Cup race held since its inception in June of 1960.

In the first four decades of races at Charlotte, Fords had been a consistant presence.  Twenty-five wins in those first forty years leading to the new millenium ranked the brand among the leaders in manufacturer wins.  Only Chevrolet had more wins in those early years; bringing home the checkers twenty-seven times.

In recent years however it has been a much different story for the boys from Dearborn.  Fords have seen  victory lane only twice in the 21st century.  Matt Kenseth in 2001 and Mark Martin in 2002 brought their Roush Fords home first in that years Coca-Cola 600.  No Ford has come home victorious this century in the Fall race.

Contrast that to the eight wins in seven and a half years for Chevrolet and you can see a definite trend emerging.  Much on the strength of the Hendrick Motorsports teams, the Bowtie Brigade’s owns the mile and a half at Lowe’s.  Five of those wins and four in a row starting in 2004 come at the hands of current points leader Jimmy Johnson.  Johnson has pretty much owned all the success at Lowes since he has entered the sport.

I will go way out on a limb and look for JJ to put up another good run at Lowes Motor Speedway in his Chevrolet.

The only possible chink in the armour could come from the Dodge of Kasey Kahne.  Kahne has won three of the last five races at NASCAR’s home track and all but one of Dodge’s victories in recent times.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Can Kasey Kahne Upset the Chasers?

Jimmy Johnson has a grip on Lowes Motor Speedway and NASCAR’s intermediate tracks in general.  In the last five years, Johnson has won 14 of the 75 I-track races, finished in the top five 37 times and been top ten 51 times.  He’s won five of his 14 starts at Lowe’s - leading all active drivers - and has eight top fives with eleven top tens. And Jimmy has the top Loop Data Driver Rating for the track as well - 116.5. That’s good. Real good.

But Johnson hasn’t won them all.  In fact Kasey Kahne is going for the three race 2008 sweep at Lowes. Kahne won the non-points all-star race and the Coca Cola 600 back in May. He holds the third best Loop DR - 98.4 - and is a seven time winner on intermediates the last five years.  Kasey’s out of the Chase and non-Chasers don’t win many Chase races.  But Kahne has led more laps - 404 which is over 15 percent of the last seven races at the track - he has the second most Fastest Laps Run and Green Flag Passes.  Kasey could pull the upset.

Roush-Fenway May Have a Say-So Too

If Carl Edwards wins it could hardly be called an upset.  Carl is one of the Chasers who still has a chance to haul Johnson in.  Edwards actually has the best Ave Finish in Lowes last seven races - 7.6 - and is the leader in Green Flag Passes.  Carl’s another seven time I-track winner the last five years and has 31 top fives and 46 top tens on intermediates.

Roush-Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle has a great record on I-tracks with 12 wins and 28 top fives. He has also won two of the four 2008 Chase races.  Biffle’s Charlotte DR is eighth best at 87.0 with no stat stomping scores in individual categories.

Is the Shrub Back?

Watch Kyle Busch this week. The Shrub may be ready to check back in to the 2008 season after some uncharacteristically poor performances lately. Rowdy owns the second best Driver Rating at 98.7 and five I-track wins overall.  

Dale Earnhardt Jr has a top five Loop DR - fifth best 89.7 - but only three career I-track wins. Maybe some of Johnson’s Lowes success will rub off on his Hendrick Motorsports teammate.  Junior’s stats don’t jump out at you.

Talladega winner, Tony Stewart has gone on late season win streaks before. But he hasn’t won much on intermediate tracks.  His DR at Lowes is only 14th best - 80.0. I would more expect a let down after the big Talladega win than a streak.

I’m picking Jimmy Johnson. He has that look again and I think the 48 team will be relentless as they push for their third straight Cup.  The darkhorse pick this week is Kahne.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler - OnPitRow.com

Looks Like an Up Hill Week for Kevin Harvick at Lowes

This post may seem like we’re piling on Kevin Harvick when he’s down. It isn’t like the Happy One had a great day Sunday at Talladega. But we’re headed to Lowes Motor Speedway this week and this is the OnPitRow.com post that is supposed to tell you which drivers are likely to catch a Saturday night fever.  Harvick jumps out.

Harvick, and fellow Chasers Greg Biffle, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth all wrecked out of the Talladega Wild Card 500.  That mixed up the Chase for the Sprint Cup for sure, but that’s not what this is about.

They all have a short week to get ready for the next round in their own backyards, Charlotte.  Home cookin’ may help, but it hasn’t done much for Harvick so far.  Happy has the worst Loop Stat Driver Rating of all the 2008 Chase contenders for Lowes - 66.4.  And it’s not a Chevy thing.  Jimmy Johnson is tops with 116.5.  Harvick hasn’t led a lap in the last seven races at Lowes. His average finish in those seven is 23.1.

And it isn’t just the North Carolina speedway.  Harvick hasn’t been good on intermediate tracks in general.  In the last five years, covering 75 possible starts on intermediates, Kevin has led the fewer laps than all but one driver to start all 75 - 159.  Johnson has led 2735.  Eight of the top 11 lap leaders on the cookie-cutters are ‘08 Chasers.  Number 11 is Junior with 908.  And we used to talk about Earnhardt Jr being weak on the mile-and-a-halfers.

Jeff Burton is just one spot better than Harvick in the laps led department. But Burton has two wins and 31 top tens on intermediates.  Harvick is winless.   The only 75 race starter with fewer lead laps than Harvick is Bobby Labonte.  But even Labonte’s Driver Rating is 81.2.

It just doesn’t look like Harvick will make a big move in the Chase at Lowes.  Labonte, Michael Waltrip and Robby Gordon aren’t very good bets either, but you likely already thought that.  I know I did.  But Kevin Harvick’s record on the intermediates surprised me.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

I’d Rather Drive a Chevy at Lowes Motor Speedway

Week five of the Chase has taken place at Lowes Motor Speedway every year to mark the halfway point. The race has seen a Chaser win each time, and 3 of the 4 races have been won by Jimmie Johnson (twice) and Jeff Gordon. Breaking the Chevy streak was Kasey Kahne in 2006. Chevys have taken a majority of top 10 spots, and it’s no wonder because the dominant Chevy teams – Hendrick and Childress – have been represented well. On the Hendrick side, obviously Gordon, Johnson, and previous driver Kyle Busch have top finishes, but Childress drivers Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer haven’t been too shabby either. The wild card could be the Roush Fenway Fords, however. Their last big year was 2005, and they placed 3 cars in the top 5 in this race.

As far as the championship is concerned, your guess is as good as mine. Looking at the track record, Johnson’s won this race in the years he failed to win the championship. He hasn’t won this race in 2 years, but won the championship in both. Go figure. I remember back in 2004 and Kurt Busch was involved in an early incident but came back for a top 5. The overarching theme of this race is that the title weighs heavily on the minds of the contenders.

The winners:
2007 – Jeff Gordon
2006 – Kasey Kahne
2005 – Jimmie Johnson
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson - 14th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson - 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart - 25th
2004 – Kurt Busch - 4th

Fantasy options – Obviously, the man to beat at this track is Johnson. 2 wins and a runner-up finish in the Chase, not to mention his record at the track in general. Another driver to watch out for is Jeff Burton. I’m thinking about starting Burton this week, because he seems to have the speed again in his cars to be a contender. Thirdly, Carl Edwards has yet to experience the same success here as he has in Atlanta and Texas. Could it finally come this year? I’m hoping, but I’m not certain.

Sleepers here are always tricky. Does Kahne count as a sleeper? He had one good month here in an otherwise forgettable 2008 season, and has won this race before. Brian Vickers could finally get it done at this race. He runs extremely well at LMS. Scott Speed, Brad Keselowski, and Bryan Clauson are all expected to make their debuts this week. Count on one of them, most likely Speed or Keselowski, to have a stronger run than expected.

Finally, the song for this week’s race comes courtesy of a personal favorite on my playlist right now, “Coming Home” by Alter Bridge. Check it out, I’m out until next week.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

The Chase Returns Home to Lowe’s Motor Speedway

Lowe’s Motor Speedway was the first of NASCAR’s venues to sell naming rights and change its name from Charlotte Motor Speedway.

The one and half mile long quad-oval track seats 167,000 people, with room for 50,000 more race fans in the infield.  Completed in 1959, it was the first speedway to host nighttime superspeedway racing beginning in 1992, and to offer year-round residences with 52 condominiums available over turn one.  Owned by Speedway Motorsports; which has its corporate headquarters on the same property, the speedway is considered to be the home track for the far majority of NASCAR teams who are based within fifty  miles.

Along with the main oval, the speedway also has a 2.25 mile road course in the infield, a 0 .6 mile kart track in the infield, a quarter-mile oval using part of the front stretch and pit road, and an 0.2 mile oval outside turn three. Also, across the street from the speedway, is a 0.4 mile dirt track that opened in May 2000.

Amazingly most of the records held at Lowe’s are held by many of the past heros of the sport.  Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip shore the lead with six wins each.  Allison also shares the most top fives with Richard Petty; while The King also has the most top tens, with thirty-one and most starts with sixty-four.  Allison has led the most laps, while David Pearson holds the record for most poles with fourteen.

In 2005, the surface of the circuit had started to wear from its last paving in mid-1994, resulting in the track’s treatment in a diamond-grinding process to smooth out bumps. This process of levigation, caused major tire problems during both Sprint Cup Series events with a record 22 cautions at the Coca-Cola 600. It was the first Sprint Cup Series race to go more than five hours in 25 years. Speed increases, as a result of the levigation caused the tire problems that resulted in the speedway being repaved in 2006.

In the past seventeen races dating back through 2000, Jimmy Johnson is the biggest winner among Chase drivers with five.  The only other multiple winner over that time period is non-chaser, Kasey Kahne.  The remaining wins have been spread among nine different drivers including Chase participants Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth,  Jeff Burton and Tony Stewart.

This could be the race where non-chase drivers have the best chance at a win.  Kasey Kahne especially has proven he can win on the prototype for the cookie cutter tracks.  Kahne proved his mettle as recently as the All-Star event this year.  Once again though Jimmy Johnson would be the best bet of the Chase contenders to bring home a win.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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