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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Indianapolis (Brickyard 400)

Now that the NASCAR season is officially past halfway, it’s time to separate the men from the boys in fantasy racing. There will be no more off-weeks for the Sprint Cup Series until the season is over at Homestead, which will make many people–myself included–very happy. There are two practices scheduled to be held on Friday, and I would assume that most cars will work on their race setup for both of those sessions because there is another practice on Saturday morning before qualifying. If a driver struggles in practice, I would stay away from him this week.

During The Last Race At Indianapolis…Jamie McMurray grabbed his second huge victory of the season by taking the checkered flag at the 2010 Brickyard ahead of Kevin Harvick, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, and Tony Stewart. Even though Juan Montoya won the pole and led 86 laps, you probably remember that he was in a late-race incident with Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Montoya also had a great race going for him in the 2009 Brickyard but ended up a disappointing 11th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Brickyard 400:

1. Jimmie Johnson - If the race at New Hampshire showed me anything, it was that this 48 team can overcome multiple mistakes during a race and still come out with a solid finish. I still think this team is due for a win here soon, and with three victories under his belt at Indianapolis, look for Jimmie Johnson to once again contend this weekend. His average finish of 18.3 in nine starts at this track may turn some fantasy racers away, but “Five Time” has finished in the top five in every flat track race this year, and I don’t see that changing this weekend. Just imagine how much less JJ will have to work if there aren’t any mistakes made.

2. Jeff Gordon - If Gordon wouldn’t have ran out of fuel in New Hampshire (I’m still baffled as to how that happened) he would be 3-for-3 for top 5s at flat tracks, and I have said all season long that this team is completely different when the series comes to these tracks. The four-time Brickyard champ has finished outside of the top 10 just four times in seventeen career starts here, and Gordon has three top 10s in his last four starts at Indy. The #24 Chevrolet ended up in victory lane at Pocono as well as Phoenix, which are decently similar (in my mind) to Indianapolis.

3. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” finally got the finish in New Hampshire, and I think he will continue his strong running as of late this weekend in Indianapolis. Statistically, this is Stewart’s second-best track: he just one finish outside of the top 20 in twelve starts as well as two wins. In the last seven Brickyard races, Tony has six top 10s, and all but one of those were top 5s. The #14 Chevrolet finished 21st at Pocono, but the other two flat track races (New Hampshire and Phoenix) have given this team finishes of 2nd and 7th.

4. Kevin Harvick - Believe it or not, this is Harvick’s second-best track on the circuit. In ten races here, “Happy” has posted seven top 10s–including one win from the pole back in 2003–which accounts for his average finish of 9.9. With only two finishes outside of the top eleven for Harvick, I don’t see this team struggling this weekend, and the fact that the #29 ended up 5th in Pocono has to be re-assuring for fantasy owners.

5. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has made six starts at Indianapolis and has come away with three top 10s and a worst finish of just 18th. He has scored all three top 10s in “even year starts” (2006, 2008, 2010), though, and has posted finishes of 12th, 18th, and 15th in the “odd year starts” (2005, 2007, 2009). Will this little streak continue? I don’t think so because the #99 Ford has been great all season, and has even been good on the flat tracks but Edwards hasn’t earned the finishes. Don’t expect to see Carl near the front at the beginning of the race, though, as his average start at Indy is a measly 27.3.

6. Kyle Busch - How often does “Rowdy” Busch have two bad races in a row? Not often, and after his 36th-place finish at New Hampshire, I expect Kyle to turn around this weekend in Indianapolis in a big way. His first three starts at this track gave him three top 10s, and after a couple stumbles (15th in 2008 and 38th in 2009), Busch rebounded last season with a solid 8th-place finish at the Brickyard after starting 23rd. The #18 ended up 2nd and 3rd at Phoenix and Pocono, respectively, which are the two other flat tracks other than New Hampshire.

7. Juan Montoya - Over the past two years at Indianapolis, JPM has the best average driver rating (125.6) and has led the most laps (202) than anyone in the series, yet he has the 22nd-best average finish (21.5). Will this be the year Montoya puts everything together and breaks into victory lane? It’s certainly possible, but with the recent crew chief swap, I don’t see it happening. He has the skills to race this track better than most (remember Montoya finished 2nd here in his rookie year) but he’s a very risky pick, as you should know by now. Juan has started on the front row in three of his four Brickyard starts, though, so you should be able to pick up some qualifying points in Yahoo! this week. The #42 ended up 7th at Pocono in June.

8. Kasey Kahne - One driver you don’t think of right away when the series comes to Indianapolis is Kasey Kahne, but he should be in the back of your mind this weekend. Kahne has posted top 12 finishes in all three flat track races this season and has four top 10s in seven starts at Indianapolis. If you take away his 36th and 40th-place efforts in 2006 and 2007 (both listed as accidents) Kasey has never finished outside of the top 13 at this track. His teammate, Brian Vickers, got a top five finish here in 2009.

9. Matt Kenseth - Matt finished 8th at Pocono in June and I think he has the potential to finish right around there in Indianapolis on Sunday. His average career finish here is right around 15th, but Matt has two top 10s in the last four Brickyards and a 12th-place effort during that span as well. He struggled in New Hampshire–as many people predicted the Roush Fords would–but Kenseth still has five top 10s in the last seven Sprint Cup races, and barring any accident or engine failure, Matt should make that six of the last eight once the checkered flag waves on Sunday.

10. Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” continued his hot streak in New Hampshire with a 4th-place effort, and I expect it continue this weekend in Indianapolis. Logano has made just two starts at this 2.5-mile track, but he owns 9th and 12th-place finishes after starting 34th and 18th in those races, respectively. Joey finished 11th at Pocono in June and that’s right about where he should end up in Indiana on Sunday.

11. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has to get out of this slump he is in (two top 10s in the last eight Sprint Cup races) soon…right? This has been a good track for Clint, but if he doesn’t impress people in practice, go ahead and take him off of your roster before the drop of the green flag. He’s finished 4th here twice (in 2006 and 2010), but Bowyer’s three other starts at Indy have ended in finishes of 13th, 19th, and 18th. Which #33 Chevrolet will show up this weekend? I guess we’ll find out soon enough, but I wouldn’t bank on a top 10, and even this 11th-place ranking may be too high.

12. Ryan Newman - If you have the 2011 Athlon Sports magazine Racing Preview, you probably noticed that they list “The Rocketman” on the “Runs on Seven Cylinders” list for Indianapolis. While Newman hasn’t been spectacular at this track, he has been consistent as of late, and with his win in New Hampshire, Ryan should have boosted confidence coming into his home track. He has just one top 10 in ten starts at this track, but Newman has finished 13th or 14th in three of his past five starts here. The #39 has ended up in the top 10 in every flat track race this season, including a 9th-place effort at Pocono in June.

13. Kurt Busch - Indianapolis isn’t Kurt’s best track, but you can’t overlook the fact that the “Double Deuce” hasn’t finished worse than 14th since May 7th in Darlington, and has six top 10s in the last eight Sprint Cup Series races. Busch has made ten starts at this 2.5-mile racetrack and has an average finish of 18.1 with four top 10s, including one last season. This ranking may be a little too low for the elder Busch brother, so be sure to check out my post-qualifying predictions over at ifantasyrace.com on Saturday afternoon.

14. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin poses the biggest question mark in the field for me. He is an awesome flat track driver, but Denny’s finishes at Indianapolis are nothing short of disappointing. He posted a 3rd-place finish here in 2008, and that combined with his 10th-place effort in 2006 are his only finishes better than 15th in five career starts here. Here’s something to think about: Hamlin hasn’t finished worse than 15th in “even year starts” at this track (2006, 2008, 2010), but his finishes in the “odd year starts” (2007, 2009) have been 22nd and 34th. If this continues, expect a down week from the #11 Toyota this weekend.

15. Greg Biffle - He may be ranked high in other fantasy NASCAR writer’s minds, but you won’t find Biffle on any of my rosters this weekend unless he really blows me away in practice. Greg has the best average finish at Indianapolis over the past two years of anyone and he is on a streak of four straight top 15s here (three straight top 10s). However, The Biff has a new crew chief this weekend, which makes me leery, and this team has really struggled on the flat tracks this season. The #16 hasn’t finished in the top ten since June 5, and I don’t expect that to change after Sunday.

Just Outside The Top Fifteen Entering The Brickyard 400:

16. Mark Martin - Mark “The Kid” Martin has six straight top 11 finishes at Indianapolis, but this team has barely even sniffed the top 11 since late May. Martin scored a 9th-place finish at Michigan, but other than that his best finish since Charlotte on May 29th has been 19th. Mark is a good driver at this track, but you have to question his equipment this season as well as the entire #5 team. This veteran will need a whole bunch of luck to come close to the top ten this week.

17. Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex finally finished a race and got the finish he deserved in New Hampshire (thankfully because I put him on my roster), and I think that will give Martin a little momentum coming into Indianapolis. His best finish here came in 2007 when he came home 12th, and if you take out Truex’s 42nd-place finish in his first start here, his average finish here jumps to 19.6 (from 23.3). The #56 wound up 10th at Pocono and ended up 14th earlier this season in Phoenix.

18. A.J. Allmendinger - Here’s another driver with a new crew chief, which makes you wonder whether or not they will be meshing well enough to have a strong running in one of NASCAR’s most prestigious races. I’ve liked The Dinger on flat tracks all season, and he brought the #43 home in 9th at Pocono in June. In three starts at Indy, A.J. has an average finish of 15.3 and captured a top 10 here during his rookie year. Watch for Allmendinger to jump up my board if he catches my eye in practice.

19. Jeff Burton - I really though Burton would finally get a top 10 in New Hampshire–which is why he was on most of my rosters–but of course he ended up being his normal self and disappointing fantasy owners. However, I think this team hit on something (they were really fast at the beginning of that race) and will transfer over to a decent run at Indy. However, I’m being conservative and placing Burton in 19th right now. He does have three top 10s in the last four Brickyard races, though.

20. Jamie McMurray - As long as his engine don’t blow, I think Jamie Mac should be pretty trustworthy for a solid top 20 finish on Sunday. Too bad you don’t win any fantasy leagues by picking 20th-place drivers. As you probably remember, McMurray won this race last season, and he posted a 6th-place effort in 2008, but Jamie’s other finishes since 2004 have been 17th, 26th, 33rd, and 21st.

Avoid These Drivers For The Brickyard 400:

David Reutimann - If Reutty posts a fast lap in qualifying, I may bump him up in my rankings, but even then it would be risky to put the #00 Toyota on your roster this weekend. He finished 8th after starting 5th here in 2009, but in Reutimann’s three other starts at this 2.5-mile track, his best finish is 28th and his best start has been 29th. David started 9th and finished 13th at Pocono.

Brian Vickers - Vickers finished 5th in his last start at Indianapolis, but that was back in 2009 and I think missing a year will set Brian back a bit. His best effort on the flat tracks thus far in the 2011 season has been 22nd (back in Pocono) and he’s simply too unreliable to be picked this weekend. As I said before, though, his Red Bull Racing teammate would be an excellent pick for the Brickyard.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior’s top 15 in New Hampshire surprised me, but the fact of the matter is that the sport’s most popular driver hasn’t posted a top ten since Pocono back in June. That in itself could translate to a good run this weekend, but I don’t see that happening: Earnhardt has eleven starts at Indy and has posted just two top 10s, compared to five finishes outside of the top 20.

Greg Biffle - The Biff has a three-race streak of top 10s at Indianapolis, and has finished 4th and 3rd in the last two races here, but I think he and his new crew chief are going to struggle this weekend. In the last three flat track races, Biffle’s best finish has been 18th, and he hasn’t had a top ten since early June. If he impresses me during practice and qualifies well, I may change my mind, but right now you won’t find the #16 on any of my rosters.

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2011 Brickyard 400

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Greg Biffle	7	10.50
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	13.50
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	15.55
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	22	15.55
Eric McClung	KFFL	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	14.25
Eric McGuire	free agent	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	13.35
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	25	14.95
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	13	13.00
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	No Pick	44	20.90
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	No Pick	44	24.10
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	18.25
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	7	12.35
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	14.50
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Jeff Burton	35	17.40
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	7	14.05
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	7	9.85
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Kasey Kahne	18	14.60
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	17.25
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	28	13.75

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Brickyard 400

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Kevin Harvick	11	13.05
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	19	13.55
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Tony Stewart	6	12.55
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	14	11.05
Eric McClung	KFFL	Tony Stewart	6	13.70
Eric McGuire	free agent	Tony Stewart	6	14.95
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	2	12.35
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	21	15.10
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	No Pick	44	20.30
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	6	13.05
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Tony Stewart	6	11.65
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	11	14.55
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	11	13.00
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	10	10.90
James Jones	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	6	11.90
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jeff Gordon	2	11.80
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	19	9.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Tony Stewart	6	9.40
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jeff Gordon	2	13.20

Scouting Report: Indy

Important Fantasy Notes for the Indianapolis Brickyard 400:

1) Forget 2008 ever happened. There wasn’t a race that year, it was a battle of who could last 15 laps before their tire blew. If a driver finished poorly in 2008 forgive them and look the other way for your fantasy teams sake this weekend.

2) It’s important to take Pocono seriously this week. Both tracks require competitors to have a superior engine to really succeed. Both have big straightaways and the Tunnel Turn at Pocono is modeled after turns at Indy.

3) Starting position is a must this week. It’s flat out hard to pass at Indy because it’s such a narrow track. As I just mentioned only drivers with superior engines will be able to makes passes this week. Nine of the seventeen races won at Indy have been won by a driver who started in the top five. The farthest back anyone’s won from is 27th.

4) When you make a pick at Indy look for drivers who you think can win the championship. This race is typically won by drivers who win the championship. Four out of the last six races at Indy have been won by the eventual champion. Indy winners who went on to be the eventual champion are Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, and Dale Jarrett. In total 8 of the 17 winners of this race won the championship.

Five Drivers to watch in the Indy Brickyard 400:

Jeff Gordon – Gordon has four wins in the Indianapolis Brickyard 400 including the inaugural race in 1994. Out of the races we’ve seen this year Pocono is the most similar to Indy and of course Jeff Gordon won that race.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick won at Indy in 2003. Last year Harvick finished second to surprise winner Jamie McMurray. In ten races at this 100 year old track he’s only finished 11th or worse twice. It’s also notable that Harvick has three straight top five finishes at Pocono (similar track).

Tony Stewart – Stewart won at Indy in 2007. In his last two performances at this historic track he’s finished 5th and 3rd. Loop data wise his average running position in the last two races here is ninth.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has won three out of the last five races at Indianapolis Motorspeedway. Before you sign the dotted line and pick Johnson it’s important to note his hero or zero pendulum performances in the Brickyard 400. Beyond his three wins he only has one other top ten and five finishes of 18th or worse.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is a big name sleeper who I think will be a contender at Indy. He’s come very close to winning on multiple occasions. When you look at his stats going back to 2002 (omitting 2008, flat tire) his worst finish is 16th, and his average finish is 7.5.

To see the rest of my rankings check out my Indy Fantasy Preview

TheSpread.com Odds to win the Brickyard 400:

Jimmie Johnson 6/1, Carl Edwards 6/1, Kyle Busch 8/1, Kevin Harvick 10/1, Matt Kenseth 10/1, Jeff Gordon 10/1, Juan Pablo Montoya 10/1, Kurt Busch 10/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Denny Hamlin 12/1

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Momentum over the last three races:

1)David Ragan 2)Joey Logano 3)Kasey Kahne 4)Ryan Newman 5)Tony Stewart 6)Jeff Gordon 7)Denny Hamlin 8)Jimmie Johnson 9)Matt Kenseth 10)Kurt Busch

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway

The historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway was built back in 1909 but the configuration has remained similar, a flat 2.5-mile rectangular track. The venue hosts the largest single-day sporting event in the world, the Indianapolis 500 but added an annual NASCAR event starting in 1994. The track lends itself more to battles for track position and fuel mileage than side-by-side racing so starting position is very important.

Chasing the pole at Indianapolis Motor Speedway

1. Mark Martin… Won the pole last year, started second in ‘08.
2. Juan Pablo Montoya… Qualified second in two of three career starts.
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.… Qualified on the second row in two of the last three starts.
4. Ryan Newman… Qualified third in ‘07 and ‘08.
5. Kasey Kahne… Qualified fourth or fifth from ‘05-’08.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings:

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner (’09, ‘08, ‘06) at Indy, has won three of the last four. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Four-time winner (’04, ‘01, ‘98, ‘94) at Indy, 13 Top 10s in 16 career starts. Y!-A2
3. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’07, ‘05) at Indy, average finish of 6.8 since ‘04 Y!-A3
4. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average running position of fourth or better in two of his career starts at Indy, led 116 laps last year. Y!-A4
5. Kevin Harvick… Won ‘03 race at Indy, has finished seventh or better in three of the last four. Y!-B1
6. Kasey Kahne… Average finish of 5.0 in four non-DNF starts at Indy, finished seventh in the last two. Y!-B2
7. Jeff Burton… Average running position of eighth or better in three of the last four at Indy. Y!-B3
8. Kyle Busch… Average running position of ninth or better in three of the last five at Indy.
9. Greg Biffle… Average running position of 10th or better in three of the last four at Indy, three straight Top 15s.
10. Denny Hamlin… Average running position of ninth in two of four career starts at Indy.
11. Matt Kenseth… Since ‘05 at Indy: two Top Fives, two Top 10s in five starts. Y!-B4
12. Clint Bowyer… Average finish of 13.5 in four career starts at Indy, one Top 10. Y!-B
13. Carl Edwards… Two Top 10s in five career starts at Indy, average running position of 20th or worse in the other three.
14. Kurt Busch… Average finish of 12.8 from ‘04-’07, 27th or worse in the last two starts.
15. Mark Martin… Has finished 11th or better in six of the last seven at Indy.
16. David Reutimann… Finished a career-best eighth last year at Indy. Y!-B
17. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average running positions of 10th and 13th in ‘07 and ‘09 races at Indy– DNFs due to engine in each. Finished 12th in ‘08. Y!-B7
18. A.J. Allmendinger… Finished 10th in ‘08 race at Indy, average running position of ninth. Finished 20th last year. Y!-C1
19. Jamie McMurray… Average finish of 16.1 in seven career starts at Indy, three Top 10s. Y!-B8
20. Joey Logano… Finished 12th last year, first career start at Indy– average running position of 19th.
21. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 11.6 in the last three starts at Indy, one Top Five. Y!-C2
22. Ryan Newman… Finished 13th or 14th in three of the last four at Indy.
23. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average running positions of 27th and 26th in two career starts at Indy. Won ‘06 Indy 500, eight career IndyCar starts. Y!-C3
24. Martin Truex Jr…. Three Top 20s in the last four starts at Indy.
25. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup starts at Indy
26. David Ragan… Average finish of 18.0 in three career starts at Indy.
27. Marcos Ambrose… Has finished 22nd in both career starts at Indy.
28. Scott Speed… Finished 31st last year, first career Cup start at Indy– average running position of 34th. Y!-C4
29. Paul Menard… Average finish of 30.0 in three career starts at Indy.
30. David Stremme… Average finish of 20.0 in three career starts at Indy.
31. Bill Elliott… Won ‘02 race at Indy. Finished 26th last year, average running position of 15th.
32. Jacques Villeneuve… First Cup start since ‘07. Won ‘05 Indy 500.
33. Bobby Labonte… Won ‘00 race at Indy, average finish of 28.7 in 19 career starts at Indy.
34. Elliott Sadler… One lead-lap finish in the last five starts at Indy.
35. Robby Gordon… Average running position of 30th or worse in four of the last five at Indy.
36. David Gilliland… Average finish of 22.3 in three career starts at Indy.
37. Casey Mears… Average finish of 23.4 in seven career starts at Indy.
38. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 32.7 in three career starts at Indy, did not start last year.
39. Regan Smith… Average finish of 35.0 in two career starts at Indy.
40. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Indy. Two starts in IndyCar Series.
41. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Indy.
42. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
43. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park.
44. J.J. Yeley… Likely start and park.
45. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
46. Todd Bodine… Likely start and park.
47. TRG Motorsports entry, driver TBA… Likely start and park.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2010 Brickyard 400

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	22	16.80
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jeff Gordon	23	13.25
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie johnson	22	12.20
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Jamie McMurray	1	12.60
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	23	15.20
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jeff Gordon	23	12.90
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	23	11.20
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	15	14.70
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jeff Gordon	23	16.30
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	5	14.10
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Juan Pablo Montoya	32	12.10
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	22	16.35
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jeff Gordon	23	14.65
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	8	14.60
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	23	13.35
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	23	13.20
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Tony Stewart	5	14.10
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	22	12.55
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jeff Gordon	23	17.25

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Brickyard 400

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	1	16.20
James Jones	On Pit Row	David Reutimann	28	11.60
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Juan Pablo Montoya	32	22.90
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	17	11.55
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	27	12.65
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr Juan Pablo Montoya	27 32	13.60 12.75
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	13	12.55
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	32	8.40
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Juan Pablo Montoya	32	11.15
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	32	12.05
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Mark Martin	11	12.65
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Juan Pablo Montoya	32	12.30
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	13	15.25
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	32	19.75
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	13	12.30
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	11	14.90
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	16	19.55
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Mark Martin	11	11.20

Contender or Pretender: Indianapolis

Jeff Gordon (Contender) - In the last nine races at Indianapolis Jeff Gordon has only finished outside the top ten once, and that was a sixteenth place finish. Jeff Gordon’s been in every NASCAR Indy race ever held so if you pick him you shouldn’t lack confidence because he has four wins and thirteen top tens in sixteen races. His last win at his so-called “home track” (seems like he has a couple) was in 2004. Jeff Gordon has the fifth best driver rating over the last five years (96.2).

Ryan Newman (Pretender) - Ryan Newman is an Indiana local but he’s never had the home field advantage. In nine races at Indy Ryan Newman has only finished inside the top ten once. His only top ten at Indy was in his rookie year so you certainly can’t say he’s improved here. Qualifying is extremely important at Indy and Newman can qualify good (7.4 avg start), but his 22.6 average running position should scare you off. Over the last five years Ryan Newman has the worst pass differential in the series at Indy (-115).

Jimmie Johnson (Contender) - Jimmie Johnson struggled at Indianapolis early in his career but since he started winning he basically hasn’t stopped. Johnson has kissed the bricks three out of the last four years. Last year Johnson started sixteenth and drove up to the front of the field quickly. If you like to pick drivers who led laps than Johnson is your guy at Indy. He’s led the most laps at Indianapolis over the last five years (128).

Mark Martin (Pretender) - Last year Mark Martin finished second at Indy and he has the best five year average finish (6.2). What Martin doesn’t have is momentum. Indianapolis is the one track on the circuit that most accurately reflects a teams true strength for the year and I don’t think the 5 team has it. Martin hasn’t finished inside the top ten for nearly two months.

Tony Stewart (Contender) - Unlike his teammate Tony Stewart passes cars at Indy. Stewart has the best pass differential in the series over the last five years (+136).  Stewart doesn’t just pass cars at Indy, he’s also always near the front of the pack (8.4 avg. running position, best in the series).  Johnson’s won a lot of races at Indy lately but Tony Stewart’s scored the most points over the last five years (158.2 points per race).

Sam Hornish Jr. (Pretender) - Hornish Jr. is a former Indianapolis 500 winner but that won’t translate into anything this upcoming weekend. His IRL championships haven’t meant anything in the Cup series yet. He ran strong at Pocono earlier this year and if you’re in a tiered fantasy league use him, but comparing performances across vastly different series’s is the wrong thing to do.

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NASCAR Power Rankings: Pocono 2

Who's Up	Who's Down
Biggest Gain This Week: Mark Martin: 5th to 3rd	Biggest Drop This Week: Jeff Gordon: 3rd to 4th
New This Week: Brian Vickers Greg Biffle	Dropped Out This Week:

Rank: 1st Tony Stewart #14 Last Week: 1 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Tony Stewart- 2 Wins, 16 Top Tens Tony Stewart has been the picture of consistency this season. The last time Tony Stewart didn't finish in the top ten (excluding rain out events) was at Talladega where he finished 23rd with a dying motor.

Rank: 2nd Jimmie Johnson #48 Last Week: 2 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jimmie Johnson- 3 Wins, 14 Top Tens Indy is a unique race because the best team of the season usually wins. The "Real Season" hasn't started yet and with his third win of the season Johnson will now start the Chase with 30 bonus points.

Rank: 3rd Mark Martin #5 Last Week: 5 Change: +2 Driver Page | Articles

Mark Martin- 4 Wins, 10 Top Tens Mark Martin almost had the perfect weekend but his teammate Jimmie Johnson showed why he is the defending 3-time champion with his clutch performance. More importantly then the win Martin is now stretching his lead over 13th place David Reuitimann.

Rank: 4th Jeff Gordon #24 Last Week: 3 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 14 Top Tens It was just an off weekend for the 24. I expected more out of Gordon at Indy. He started off mid pack, moved up slowly, and finished a disappointing 9th.

Rank: 5th Kurt Busch #22 Last Week: 4 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Kurt Busch- 1 Win, 10 Top Tens Championship teams overcome problems and Kurt Busch just wasn't able to bounce back after an early pit road problem. Track position was key at Indy and Kurt's 40th place starting position didn't help.

Rank: 6th Kasey Kahne #4 Last Week: 7 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Kasey Kahne- 1 Win, 8 Top Tens Over the last 6 races Kasey Kahne has accumulated the 4th most points. Only Stewart, Johnson, and Gordon have scored more. Expect a good showing out of Kahne at Pocono.

Rank: 7th Carl Edwards #99 Last Week: 6 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Carl Edwards- 5 Top Fives, 9 Top Tens I learned something new at Indy about Roush-Fenway Racing. Roush-Fenway selects one team every week and that selected team runs an experimental setup that weekend. At such a prestigious race Carl's setup was only good for a 15th place finish.

Rank: 8th Juan Pablo Montoya #42 Last Week: 9 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Juan Pablo Montoya- 1 Pole, 9 Top Tens Juan Pablo Montoya had the best car but the late speeding penalty did him in. To bad, I was actually hoping for a win or at least his first top five. It sure would be interesting if he made the Chase without a single top 5.

Rank: 9th Denny Hamlin #11 Last Week: 8 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Denny Hamlin- 6 Top Fives, 8 Top Tens Denny Hamlin looked good at Indy but mechanical problems once again affected the 11. In fantasy racing people often relate Pocono and Indy to each other. Hamlin looked the same in both races with his car coasting back to the garage.

Rank: 10th Brian Vickers #83 Last Week: NR Change: N/A Driver Page | Articles

Brian Vickers- 3 Top Fives, 9 Top Tens Brain Vickers is quietly making a run towards the Chase. Will he make it? The answer to that question can be found if you were to study the schedule. Quick Answer: It will be really close, but he wall fall just short.

Rank: 11th Ryan Newman #39 Last Week: 10 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Ryan Newman- 5 Top Fives, 9 Top Tens Out of all the teams in the Chase Ryan Newman is currently running the worst. The 39 had a good stretch from Talladega through Pocono but other then that there really hasn't been much to say positive about Newman's season.

Rank: 12th Greg Biffle #16 Last Week: NR Change: N/A Driver Page | Articles

Greg Biffle- 6 Top Fives, 9 Top Tens Greg Biffle makes his re-emergence in the Power Rankings with his solid 4th place finish. Greg needs to continue to perform well if this team is going to make the Chase, and if he's going to prove me correct Kyle Busch will miss it.

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