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NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Las Vegas, Chicagoland, Kansas and Homestead-Miami [Low-banked 1.5 mile tracks]

This table show the average finish of 38 drivers in the four races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Chicagoland Speedway, Kansas Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway during the 2009 season. All of these tracks are 1.5 mile tracks that feature corner backing ranging from 15 to 20 degrees.

	LV	CHI	KAN	M-H	AVERAGE
Jeff Gordon	6	2	2	6	4.0
Denny Hamlin	22	5	5	1	8.3
Kasey Kahne	11	3	6	17	9.3
David Reutimann	4	12	8	15	9.8
Clint Bowyer	2	9	21	11	10.8
Jimmie Johnson	24	8	9	5	11.5
Carl Edwards	17	14	10	7	12.0
Tony Stewart	26	4	1	22	13.3
Kyle Busch	1	33	12	8	13.5
Greg Biffle	7	31	3	14	13.8
Kurt Busch	23	17	11	4	13.8
Kevin Harvick	12	19	24	3	14.5
Mark Martin	40	1	7	12	15.0
Jeff Burton	3	37	23	2	16.3
Brian Vickers	8	7	37	20	18.0
A.J. Allmendinger	33	13	17	10	18.3
Martin Truex, Jr.	32	16	16	9	18.3
Ryan Newman	25	6	22	23	19.0
Jamie McMurray	9	22	31	18	20.0
Marcos Ambrose	20	11	14	35	20.0
Joey Logano	13	18	28	24	20.8
Juan Pablo Montoya	31	10	4	38	20.8
Bill Elliott		29	19	16	21.3
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	10	15	36	28	22.3
Casey Mears	30	28	15	19	23.0
Sam Hornish, Jr.	16	38	18	21	23.3
Bobby Labonte	5	21	43	31	25.0
Regan Smith	19			32	25.5
Brad Keselowski	38	32	13	25	27.0
Scott Speed	21	36	27	27	27.8
David Gilliland	14	42		29	28.3
Elliott Sadler	29	27	20	41	29.3
Matt Kenseth	43	23	39	13	29.5
Robby Gordon	15	34	34	39	30.5
Paul Menard	35	35	30	26	31.5
David Ragan	42	25	35	34	34.0
Max Papis	36		32		34.0
Aric Almirola	39				39.0

NASCAR Power Rankings: Chase Edition 2009 Final

Homestead

Who's Up	Who's Down
Biggest Gain This Week: No moves up this week.	Biggest Drop This Week: No moves down this week.
No new drivers this week.	No drivers dropped out this week.

Rank: 1st Jimmie Johnson #48 Last Week: 1 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jimmie Johnson- 7 Wins, 24 Top Tens The seasons over, the right man won, and all is right with the world again. If your not a fan of Jimmie Johnson then by about 2015 his dynasty will probably be in decline. Chad Knaus plans on being the 48 crew chief for at least 5 more years.

Rank: 2nd Mark Martin #5 Last Week: 2 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Mark Martin- 5 Wins, 21 Top Tens Mark Martin isn't done yet and the never ending "Salute to you tour" will be going strong through 2011. He had a great season that far exceeded probably anyone's expectations.

Rank: 3rd Kurt Busch #2 Last Week: 3 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Kurt Busch- 2 Win, 21 Top Tens Kurt Busch almost stopped the Hendrick 1,2,3 standing domination but the 2 team fumbled in the decision making department late at Homestead. Kurt was definitely the the rebound driver of the year.

Rank: 4th Jeff Gordon #24 Last Week: 4 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 25 Top Tens By finishing 6th at Homestead Jeff Gordon wrapped up the top 3 spots for Hendrick Motors Sports. Gordon finished the season with the most top tens (25), but at this point that was last season.

Rank: 5th Denny Hamlin #11 Last Week: 5 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Denny Hamlin- 4 Wins, 20 Top Tens I've seriously heard people speculate that Denny Hamlin would be the person who would stop Jimmie Johnson's dominance. Hamlin even said it himself. I know it sounds humorous considering he thinks he paid Keselowski back.

Rank: 6th Tony Stewart #14 Last Week: 6 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Tony Stewart- 4 Wins, 23 Top Tens I told people all season long that the 14 team wasn't a real championship threat. They were just the most consistent team in the series. After Watkins Glen this team's performances plummeted.

Rank: 7th Juan Pablo Montoya #42 Last Week: 7 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Juan Pablo Montoya- 7 Top Fives, 18 Top Tens I have no clue how NASCAR fans can't like Montoya. He sticks up for himself on the track and is passionate about what he does. What NASCAR needs is 1) be more consistent (2 lap penalty?) and 2) 42 more Montoya's on the track.

Rank: 8th Greg Biffle #16 Last Week: 8 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Greg Biffle- 10 Top Fives, 16 Top Tens It was a down year for Roush and Biffle completed the first full season of his career that he was win less. NASCAR is a cyclical sport so I wouldn't be surprised if he bounces back to multiple victories next year.

Rank: 9th Kasey Kahne #9 Last Week: 9 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Kasey Kahne- 2 Wins, 14 Top Tens Kahne had a nice season that never materialized in the Chase. The problem here is that no team is entering the off season with more question marks then Kahne. 2010 will be a contract year for Kahne so things will either go really good or really bad.

Rank: 10th Ryan Newman #39 Last Week: 10 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Ryan Newman- 5 Top Fives, 15 Top Tens Ryan Newman returned to the Chase in 2009 but he didn't return to victory lane. If Ryan Newman could just improve on the intermediate tracks then he would have potential to challenge for the championship.

Rank: 11th Carl Edwards #99 Last Week: 11 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Carl Edwards- 7 Top Fives, 14 Top Tens After California in the Chase this team just fell apart. In the off season when people talk about the disappointment of the year Carl Edwards should certainly be talked about in that debate.

Rank: 12th Brian Vickers #83 Last Week: 12 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Brian Vickers- 1 Win, 13 Top Tens Brian Vickers should be a NASCAR spokesman for why the Chase only needs 10 drivers. Brian Vickers didn't have a single top ten, never led a lap, and had a 59.7 driver rating over the course of the Chase.

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Ford 400 from Homestead Miami Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	12	8.26
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	1	8.29
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	7	9.43
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Mark Martin	12	10.37
Gerritt Ritt	FOX Sports	Matt Kenseth	13	10.51
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jeff Gordon	6	11.11
Eric Brewer		Mark Martin	12	11.40
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Ryan Newman	23	11.57
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Greg Biffle	14	11.71
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	6	11.97
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Greg Biffle	14	12.49
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	38	12.60
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Greg Biffle	14	12.63
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Matt Kenseth	13	12.89
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	12	13.06
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	12	16.74
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kurt Busch	4	17.94

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Ford 400 from Homestead Miami Speedway

Totally reconfigured in 2003, Homestead-Miami Speedway is the only place on the Sprint Cup circuit with variable banking, gradually increasing from 18 degrees on the bottom to 20 at the top. Because the track only hosts the season finale of the NASCAR season it is more important to consider a driver’s momentum heading into this race than historical stats. With that in mind, strongly consider three drivers from the Richard Childress Racing stable. Over the last six races, RCR has had two top-10 cars on four occasions.

• Clint Bowyer finished a career-best fifth last year at Homestead and has an average finish of 10.0 over the last six races this season.
• Kevin Harvick holds an impressive 7.6 average finish since the track was reconfigured and only one finish outside the top-10. He was in runner-up last year’s Ford 400 and has registered the 11th-most points over the last six races.
• Jeff Burton is decent at Homestead with a 15.8 career average finish but more importantly has three straight top-10s this season.

Also noteworthy, David Ragan will be running the new Ford engine for the first time in a non-restrictor plate event.

Chasing the pole at Homestead-Miami

1. Kasey Kahne… Winner of the pole in ‘06 at Homestead, Kahne owns an average starting position of 5.8– best among active drivers.
2. Ryan Newman… Starting second in ‘05 and ‘07, Newman would lead laps in both races and finished seventh and 18th. Starting Newman this week will be hinge greatly on his qualifying run, as he finished outside the top-20 in ‘06 and ‘08 when he started 16th and 29th.
3. Jimmie Johnson… Johnson has only started inside the top-10 at Homestead only once, starting from the pole in ‘07. But on the season, Johnson as has recorded the best average starting position (8.5) among all drivers. To avoid another disaster like Texas, Johnson would be wise to  qualify up front in order to avoid the risk of running in the middle of the pack.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.

1. Jeff Gordon… Only one finish outside of the top-10 at Homestead since ‘03– four top-fives. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Five finishes of 15th or better at Homestead (four top-10s, one DNF) since ‘03 (six races). Average finish of 10.0 since ‘06, led at least one laps in all three. Y!-A2
3. Mark Martin… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘03, average finish of 10.0 in the four races since. Y!-A3
4. Kurt Busch… Won in ‘02 at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. DNFs (crash) in ‘06 and ‘08, runner-up in ‘07. Y!-B1
5. Denny Hamlin… Finished third at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, 13th in last year’s Ford 400. Y!-B2
6. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’99, ‘00) at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. Average finish of 13.3 since ‘03; two top-10s, five top-15s. Y!-B3
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ‘06, average finish of 16.0 in the last two races. Y!-B4
8. Clint Bowyer… Finished a career-best fifth at Homestead last year, one other top-10 in three career starts. Y!-A4
9. Greg Biffle… Three-time winner (’04-’06) at Homestead, average finish of 15.5 in the last two races.
10. Kasey Kahne… Two top-10 finishes at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B5
11. Kyle Busch… Finished a career-best 19th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400.
12. Matt Kenseth… Won at Homestead in ‘07, led 214 laps. Started third, finished 25th last year- led 73 laps.
13. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 9.1 at Homestead in eight career starts, has never finished worse than 20th.
14. Carl Edwards… Won last’s year Ford 400 at Homestead. Owns a streak of four top-10s, has never finished worse than 14th.
15. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 20.6 at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B6
16. David Reutimann… Won the pole at Homestead last year but only led one laps, finished 20th. Finished 13th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-B7
17. Jeff Burton… Only one top-10 at Homestead since ‘03- but has finished 14th or better three times in that span.
18. Brian Vickers… Has never finished better than 18th at Homestead, only one lead-lap finish (two DNFs) in six career starts. Y!-B8
19. Joey Logano… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Won the pole, finished 10th in last year’s Nationwide race.
20. Marcos Ambrose… Started 41st, finished 42nd in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Finished 10th in ‘07 Nationwide race, DNF last year. Y!-C1
21. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Started 43rd, finished 11th in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Y!-C2
22. Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished a career-best third at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400, 15.4 average finish in six career starts.
23. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Average finish of 15.3 at Homestead in the last four races.
24. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead in nine career starts, has not finished better than 19th since ‘03.
25. David Ragan… Weak value play. Average start of 6.5 at Homestead in two career starts– finished 10th and 24th.
26. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Average finish of 12.5 at Homestead in four career starts.
27. Brad Keselowski… Weak value play. Started 31st, finished 23rd in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Finished third in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-C3
28. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Won from the pole at Homestead in ‘01 prior to reconfiguration. Started 15th, finished 12th last year. Y!-C4
29. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 29th, finished 37th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Average finish of 3.0 (three wins) in seven IndyCar starts (’01-’07)
30. Bobby Labonte… Won in ‘03 at Homestead, average finish of 28.6 in the five races since.
31. Scott Speed… Started second, finished 16th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
32. Travis Kvapil… Started 19th, finished seventh at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– both career bests.
33. David Stremme… Finished 11th at Homestead in ‘06 and ‘07, did not start last year.
34. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 24.2 at Homestead in four career starts.
35. Paul Menard… Average finish of 27.3 at Homestead in four career starts.
36. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 27.4 at Homestead in seven career starts.
37. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 30.0 at Homestead since ‘03.
38. David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.7 at Homestead in three career starts.
39. Regan Smith… Started 26th, finished 34th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
40. Michael Waltrip… Started 42nd, finished 38th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– no starts in ‘06 and ‘07.
41. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Finished 27th in last year’s Truck race.
42. Erik Darnell… No career starts at Homestead.
43. John Andretti… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
44. Terry Labonte… No Cup starts at Homestead since ‘04.
45. Sterling Marlin…? Possible start and park. Rumored to the TBD driver. Started 21st, finished 29th last year at Homestead.
46. Dave Blaney… Possible start and park. Average finish of 18.8 at Homestead since ‘03.
47. Joe Nemechek… Possible start and park. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead since ‘03.
48. Michael McDowell… Possible start and park. No career Cup starts at Homestead. DNF (transmission) in ‘07 Nationwide race.

NASCAR Power Rankings: Chase Edition Week 10

Phoenix

Who's Up	Who's Down
Biggest Gain This Week: Denny Hamlin: 7th to 5th	Biggest Drop This Week: Jeff Gordon: 3rd to 4th
No new drivers this week.	No drivers dropped out this week.

Rank: 1st Jimmie Johnson #48 Last Week: 1 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jimmie Johnson- 7 Wins, 23 Top Tens Jimmie Johnson had a statement victory at Phoenix but don't think he's immune to problems at Homestead. The last time Jimmie Johnson didn't win the championship he had a blown tire at Homestead that ruined his day and his championship hopes (2005).

Rank: 2nd Mark Martin #5 Last Week: 2 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Mark Martin - 5 Wins, 21 Top Tens Finishing second must almost be like a tradition for Mark Martin fans. Michael Jordon stopped many of his competitors from winning championships and Jimmie Johnson is doing the exact same thing. MJ took his sport to the next level and so will JJ.

Rank: 3rd Kurt Busch #2 Last Week: 4 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Kurt Busch - 2 Win, 20 Top Tens Kurt Busch was poised to be one of Jimmie Johnson's biggest competitors at Phoenix but the 2 team lost the handle of their car mid race. I'm sure Roger Penske wishes that he could have made Pat Tryson a counter offer to stay.

Rank: 4th Jeff Gordon #24 Last Week: 3 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 24 Top Tens Earnhardt and Petty have their 7 by 7 club and soon Jeff Gordon will be able to start his own 4 by 4 club with Jimmie Johnson. Or even better yet he could do it by himself with his 4 driver championships and 4 owner championships.

Rank: 5th Denny Hamlin #11 Last Week: 7 Change: +2 Driver Page | Articles

Denny Hamlin - 3 Wins, 19 Top Tens For anyone who ever goes to my fantasy chats then you'll know that my default Denny Hamlin advice works. "If its flat or short pick Hamlin". If Hamlin ever wants to win the championship then he really needs to win at an intermediate track.

Rank: 6th Tony Stewart #14 Last Week: 5 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Tony Stewart - 4 Wins, 23 Top Tens Under the old system Stewart would only be 8 points back. That systems dead so this shouldn't even be news. The real news that Stewart created for the week was over his radio. Stewart called Jr a "no driving talent sob". Yikes.

Rank: 7th Juan Pablo Montoya #42 Last Week: 6 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Juan Pablo Montoya - 7 Top Fives, 18 Top Tens Juan Pablo Montoya's rise is certainly one of the best stories of the season but no one possibly thought he might finish in the top 5 in points. Montoya's magic Homestead number is 5 points, that's how many points he needs to gain on Tony Stewart.

Rank: 8th Greg Biffle #16 Last Week: 8 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Greg Biffle - 10 Top Fives, 16 Top Tens Historically Homestead is a very good place for Biffle with his 3 career wins at the track. Don't buy into that hype this weekend because those wins all were with the old car. The best he's finished with the COT is 13th.

Rank: 9th Kasey Kahne #9 Last Week: 9 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Kasey Kahne - 2 Wins, 14 Top Tens Kahne started his NASCAR driving career with Ford and after Homestead he'll once again be in a Ford. I don't know if I should be happy or sad for him. I guess we'll all find out next season.

Rank: 10th Ryan Newman #39 Last Week: 10 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Ryan Newman - 5 Top Fives, 15 Top Tens Newman returned to the Chase in 2009 but once he made it there really wasn't anything to brag about. He finished 7th twice but what's so great about that?

Rank: 11th Carl Edwards #99 Last Week: 11 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Carl Edwards - 7 Top Fives, 13 Top Tens Edwards was good in the spring but ever since then it's all been downhill. If I were Carl I wouldn't be expecting a very good seat at the Las Vegas awards banquet this year.

Rank: 12th Brian Vickers #83 Last Week: 12 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Brian Vickers - 1 Win, 13 Top Tens Believe it or not Vickers is improving. His Chase average finish right now is 23. Last year over the same segment of races his average finish was 25.1. Next year he might be able to get it down to around 20.

Ford’s Fusion Hybrid Makes it’s Racing Debut

While everybody was gearing up for the last race of the season and Jimmie Johnson’s inevitable coronation, I was excited about the race for another reason. (Maybe ‘excited’ is too strong of a word) I was hoping to catch a glimpse of the Ford Fusion Hybrid pace car make it‘s way around the track as it escorted the Sprint Cup contenders to the green flag. According to hybridcars.com the car makes it’s official debut in Los Angeles later in November but it’s first national public appearance was at Homestead-Miami Speedway. I did get just the briefest glance of the car right before it pealed off onto pit lane when the green flag was waved.
I don’t see that this event means hybrids will, in the near or even distant future, become the stars of the show. But NASCAR has been dedicated to making the series ‘greener’ and the possible use of hybrids in supporting roles in the series, such as pace cars, transportation to and from races, etc. could make a considerable difference in fuel consumption, without ever messing with the star integrity of the cup cars.
Even though, TV coverage barely broadcast it’s participation, it was nice to see it’s appearance anyway. I hope it wasn’t just a one time occurrence.

Photo credit: hybridcars.com

NASCAR Fans–Do You Believe in Miracles

Bobby Labonte holds the only win at Homestead-Miami Speedway in a Chevrolet, while Matt Kenseth is the defending race winner.

The only Dodge win in the short history of the south Florida track come from the unlikely source of Bill Elliott. Elliott only won four races for Evernham Racing after resurrecting the brand in NASCAR.  Tony Stewart picked off the first two wins ever at HMS in Pontiacs.

The majority of wins have come from the Blue Oval Boys.  Fords of Jack Roush have won five of the nine races.  Kurt Busch started the winning in 2002.  Greg Biffle “owns” Homestead with three consecutive wins in ‘04 through ‘06; while Matt Kenseth is the defending race winner.  While Roush drivers have been celebrating race wins over the last three years at the finale; they have had to watch Jimmy Johnson revel in his championships.

Jack Roush would like nothing better than to be able to celebrate a championship and a race win for Carl Edwards. It’s the long shot of all long shots to believe that JJ can’t pull off a 36th place finish.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Homestead-Miami Speedway

Have a cigar, Jimmie Johnson. Go ahead, seriously. This year’s Chase is as good as over, and it’s your team that’s on top. All it takes is a 36th-place finish, and your fate is sealed as the first three-time champion since Cale Yarborough three decades ago.

In other words, thanks for taking the fun out of the Chase. (Just kidding.)

So we’re headed to Homestead-Miami Speedway this weekend for the Sprint Cup season finale, after which NASCAR’s stars take a two-month break from their day jobs. Homestead is typically a Roush Fenway Racing-dominated track, as their cars have won every race here since the Chase’s inception. Greg Biffle won in 2004, 2005, and 2006, and Matt Kenseth won last year.

Here’s how each of the 12 Chase drivers will do this week at Homestead:

1. Jimmie Johnson: He’ll just be trying to survive and wrap up that third title. Anything more than playing it safe will be a bonus.

2. Carl Edwards: If anything happens to Johnson (and even if it doesn’t), you can bet Cousin Carl will be gunning for the win at all times. If Johnson blows up on lap one and he leads the most laps and wins, the title’s his. With no more races left in the season, he might as well go for it.

3. Greg Biffle: Too bad Da Biff’s not still in the title hunt. This is by far his best track, and a three-man shootout between Johnson, Edwards, and Biffle would’ve been fun to watch.

4. Jeff Burton: Burton’s worst finish here with Roush was 14th in five starts. With RCR, his best finish is 8th (last year), with two finishes of 25th or worse in four starts. He won’t be as good in this car as he would be were he still at Roush.

5. Kevin Harvick: Happy hasn’t finished worse than 20th all Chase or at Homestead for his career. He hasn’t won since the 2007 Daytona 500, so don’t expect a win, but Harvick should be up towards the front to finish off the season.

6. Clint Bowyer: Bowyer’s only made two starts here, so it’s hard to tell based on his past experience, especially when his finishes are 10th and 39th. He’s been between 5th and 20th all Chase, though, so expect that to repeat.

7. Jeff Gordon: Gordon hasn’t had a winless season since his rookie year in 1993. While he’s never won at Homestead, he’s only finished worse than 10th twice in nine starts. He’s got nothing to lose by going for the victory. Then again, after qualifying 37th, he’ll have a ways to go.

8. Matt Kenseth: Roush car? Check. Defending race winner? Check. Trying to avoid a big fat zero in the win column for the year? Check. Kenseth’s going to push hard this weekend.

9. Denny Hamlin: Here’s the real battle: the battle for the last seats at the end-of-season banquet. 9th through 12th places are separated by 31 points, and Hamlin leads the pack. If 3rd-place finishes each of the past two years mean anything, he’ll stay in the top 10.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior’s best finish at Homestead is 13th in his rookie season, and his average finish is 21.2 in eight starts. He’ll have to improve on that if he wants a seat at the banquet in December.

11. Kyle Busch: If anyone deserves to be on stage in New York this December, it’s a guy who completely ran away with the regular season. Too bad Busch’s track record at Homestead includes a best finish of 20th and an average finish of 33.0.

12. Tony Stewart: Cheers for ten great years with the Gibbs organization, Tony, and here’s to ten more with your own. I don’t expect you to do much this weekend, but enough to claim that final seat in New York for JGR.

So who would I pick to win this weekend? Any of the Roush cars. Biffle’s got the track record, Kenseth’s defending the win from last year, and Edwards is going to do whatever it takes to set himself up for a title if Johnson falters. Bet on Edwards, with the others close behind, a la the Dover race a couple months ago.

Image credit: Icon Sports Media

Wrapped up, but not wiped out

OK, so we’re one episode away from conclusion of the 2008 Jimmie Johnson show. All the Hendrick gear in my possession aside, even I’m bored with this. Nothing against JJ, Chad or crew, but even my 16 year old Baby Ruth T-shirt is fresher than this act. And it doesn’t even fit any more. While their accomplishments the past three seasons are nothing short of miraculous, and like it or not deserve all the press and praise, there’s one thing that comes to mind that a wise old man once told me.

“Luke, you just can’t eat a steak every night for life and not expect it to get old and lose it’s luster. Sometimes you just need a good chicken dinner to liven it up.”

While a bit off-beat, it rings true for many situations. Including this one. As remarkable of an accomplishment as this will be, barring something to knock Jimmie to a 37th or worse finish, fans are looking to the menu for some chicken.

They have shown it with empty seats at places which tend to sell out, or close to it. They have shown it through television ratings, as well as related purchases. While the current economic times play a part, those didn’t really enter the picture until mid to late summer where it would have a huge impact.

Many curse the Chase, although Johnson would still be leading by 56 points. That aside, he would only be heading to Championship #1, not #3.

I read an interesting article yesterday, with some interesting concepts on how bad it is and how it could be fixed. Problem being: “One must recognize, and accept, that there is a problem before work can begin to fix it.” — Luke

A few decent ideas have been thrown around, for sure.

So while we witnessed the last to final episode of the 2008 season of the Jimmie and Chad show, it wasn’t all about the Chasers.

Jamie McMurray continued his romp and stomp with another Top-5 and 3rd place finish. Kurt Busch, hanging it all out, finished second, with David Ragan closing out the Top-10. 30% of your Top-10 were not in the Chase. Surprise, surprise.

With fond memories (thank you Truck Series) from Phoenix in our rear view mirrors, we’re pulling into Homestead with one thing on everyone’s mind. Vacation. Yes, you read that right. Time off. No tracks, no press, no worries. At least for a few days anyway, as work for 2009 has already begun. Think I’m kidding? Kurt Busch and company tested this past Tuesday at the new half-mile “Little Rock”, at Rockingham, getting ready for 2009. No joke.

Homestead is, well, it’s a track. Much like many others composing the meat of the current schedule. It’s a 1.5 mile “cookie-cutter”, and it’s owned by ISC. There you have it. In an effort to improve racing they put in graduated banking, seeing action for the first time in 2003. Las Vegas did the same thing just 2 years ago, in fact. While the show improved, it’s about like watching Johnson hoist the Cup this Sunday.

The cookie track that tried, tried, and tried again has been the “House of Roush” for years. In fact, Greg Biffle is 3 for 4 in the past 4 years here, only losing out to Matt Kenseth in the 2007 showdown when he beat Kurt Busch to the line by .852 seconds. Biffle wound up 13th.

If one had to put some non-Chasers in the Top-10, you can’t help but pick Jamie McMurray and David Ragan. With momentum and history coming into play, they’re odds on favorites to crack the Top-10.

Kurt Busch again? I’m not so sure. Top-20, maybe, but he’s pulling an average just inside the Top-30 for tracks of this nature this year. Needless to say, when they’re on, they’re on. When they’re off, they’re really off. There hasn’t really been an in between at this type of track for the #2 Dodge.

Looking for that ever elusive third possibility, I’ll throw you two and you can take your pick. It’s not out of the question that it could be Kasey Kahne or Travis Kvapil. Yes, I said Travis Kvapil.

Come back next week for the final wrap up on what was the non-Chase 2008.

Homestead Fantasy Picks: Throw Away the Loop Stats

Use your heads NASCAR fans. With only three races in the NASCAR Loop stat database for Homestead-Miami Speedway, you will need to look at more trends than the Loop Data give you. In fact, make it easy on your self and just pick a Roush-Fenway Racing driver.

I’ll admit that after last week when Jimmy Johnson again put a stompin’ on the field at Phoenix International Raceway, I am shell shocked. Johnson and Chad Knaus have shown no signs of stroking it and running for points at all. Will this week, with only a 36th place finish needed to clinch a third straight Sprint Cup Series championship change anything? Jimmy’s average finish in the last three Homestead-Miami finales is only 18.7. He was, in two of those races, leading the championship going into the event. That may show a trend toward being conservative. Actually, it may not matter.

The Roush-Fenway drivers have been very good at Homestead. Greg Biffle once won here in three consecutive years. Greg is tops in Fastest Laps Run (80) and Laps in the Top 15 - 688 - in the last three races too.

Matt Kenseth has an average finish of 3.3 and has led the most laps - 214 for 26.7 percent -  in the three Loop Data races. And Kenseth is one of only three of the 2008 Chase qualifiers to have won at Homestead. Biffle and two-time winner Tony Stewart are the others.

But Carl Edwards is my pick this time. Carl has shown that he and crew chief Bob Osborne have no quit in them. They are the only team with any mathematical chance to upset the Lowes No. 48 apple cart. They have to win the race. They can win the race. Carl has an average finish of 5.7 - only third best among the Roush drivers - and the fourth best Driver Rating at 107.2.

So Carl is my pick. And Jeff Gordon is my “I can’t believe I’m calling him an upset”, upset special. Gordon has never won at Homestead-Miami - there are only two of those tracks left on his to-do list. It’s just a hunch that Gordon may get the job done here, this time around.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

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