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NASCAR Fans–Do You Believe in Miracles

Bobby Labonte holds the only win at Homestead-Miami Speedway in a Chevrolet, while Matt Kenseth is the defending race winner.

The only Dodge win in the short history of the south Florida track come from the unlikely source of Bill Elliott. Elliott only won four races for Evernham Racing after resurrecting the brand in NASCAR.  Tony Stewart picked off the first two wins ever at HMS in Pontiacs.

The majority of wins have come from the Blue Oval Boys.  Fords of Jack Roush have won five of the nine races.  Kurt Busch started the winning in 2002.  Greg Biffle “owns” Homestead with three consecutive wins in ‘04 through ‘06; while Matt Kenseth is the defending race winner.  While Roush drivers have been celebrating race wins over the last three years at the finale; they have had to watch Jimmy Johnson revel in his championships.

Jack Roush would like nothing better than to be able to celebrate a championship and a race win for Carl Edwards. It’s the long shot of all long shots to believe that JJ can’t pull off a 36th place finish.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Texas Owes its Life to Two Fallen Heros

What do Texas Motor Speedway, North Wilksboro Speedway and North Carolina Speedway at Rockingham all have in common?

The former uses the Sprint Cup dates originally owned by the latter two.  Bruton Smith, who’s Speedway Motorsports Inc., owns Texas, acquired The Rock and North Wilkboro for the sole purpose of stealing their race dates to redistribute them to Texas.  The racing at the 1.5 mile quad-oval has been good and fast.  The title of fastest un-restricted track has bounced between Texas and its clone Atlanta.

Since the race track opened to the Cup Series in 1997, there have only been two repeat winners.  The #99 has won this race three times; twice with Carl Edwards behind the wheel and once; the inaugural event, driven by Jeff Burton.  Burton then won again in the Richard Childress Racing #31 in the Spring of 2007.

Brian Vickers holds the qualifying track record at 196.235mph set at the Dickies 500 in 2006.  Bobby Labonte and Ryan Newman each have two poles and Tony Stewart has led more laps than anyone with 453.

Texas Motor Speedway’s construction began in 1995. The original configuration called for an unusual dual banking system that had 24 degrees of banking for stock cars and 8 degrees for open-wheel cars.  In 1998, Turn 4 was reshaped to ease the transition from the turns to the front straight.  That April, a second renovation started and was completed in less than two months. The project eliminated the dual banking and gave the track its current configuration.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Dodge Going Away–Say It Ain’t So

Four races to go and driving a Chevy is as important at Atlanta as it has been everywhere else on the Chase circuit.

The strength of the Hendrick cars and Richard Childress Racing along with Joe Gibbs Racing tenure with the GM brand is the reason it is the brand to beat of late at Atlanta.  The question has been; is it the car or does Chevrolet just have the best drivers and teams?  It’s hard to argue that the three teams listed above along with Dale Earnhardt Inc. hasn’t been the best equipped over the past ten to fifteen years.

It is difficult to go too far back to try and gain any perspective on how brands do at particular tracks when everything has been changed by the “New Car”.  The car makes and models are literally just shells of what they once were.  It has been since the mid to late Eighties that definite car makes made a difference in their ability to affect the outcome of a race.

There was a time when car owners would change brands or models of car to gain an advantage over the competition.  Going back to the Sixties the Mercury Cyclones were the car of choice over the Ford Torino, later Talledaga, because its shape was more areodynamic.  The Monte Carlo Aero Coupe was the answer to the teams that found slipperier makes from Olds, Buick or Pontiac in the Ninties.

But, of course, the days of having all those makes of car are long gone.  Granted they were all GM makes, but having the long list of models made for more interesting chatter on Mondays.  It has only been a relative short few years since Dodge has returned to the Cup series.  Now with the talk of mergers on and off the race track, the future of Chrysler in racing is in doubt.  Any time you lose a brand, it isn’t a positive.  Dodge came back into the sport with high hopes and eventually re-introduced one of its most popular models, the Charger, because of it.

The new car has stripped all brand identity except for the decals and engine block.  It is really too bad that with that little difference in cars; more models, even in name only, aren’t represented.  It’s a pipe dream on my part, but since NASCAR didn’t listen to me when I asked for factory roof, hood, deck and glass, what the hell, I can dream can’t I?

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

When Jimmie Goes Down To Georgia

I’m shameless, really. When it comes to NASCAR, Jimmie Johnson has become Mr. October in nearly every sense. While he’ll never be Reggie Jackson, he has been incredible in the October Chase races, which have used Atlanta as the bookend. Every year this race focuses mainly on the Chase drivers and some of the great racing is missed. Maybe ABC will take a cue from that and show the race.

Chase drivers tend to mix in with other drivers at Atlanta, I’ve noticed. Tony Stewart won in 2006, when he also won at Kansas and just aimed for wins during the Chase. One of my favorite victory lane moments came here in that race, when Stewart climbed the fence to celebrate, mingled with the fans in the stands, then told the interviewer that the hat he was wearing came from a fan that gave it to him – one of those old hats that was torn from use, not for design. I felt compelled to share that right here. Equipment will be something to watch here as it really strains the engine. Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards will all hope for something like that to happen.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Tony Stewart
2005 – Carl Edwards
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 9th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 42nd

I’ve started the last 2 race winners and they’ve delivered 2 wins. Hey, I think I’m getting the hang of this! It’s so tempting to say Jimmie Johnson 12 times and be done with it, but…

JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON

Or go with Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle. At this point, they’re still the ones in position to make a move if the #48 ends up having trouble.

I desperately want David Ragan to win a race this season. His spring race here wasn’t great, but he has had a lot of solid runs on the intermediate tracks. Plus, it makes for a great story in addition the Chase coverage. As a backup, I’ll take Brian Vickers.

“The Devil Went Down To Georgia” by the incomparable Charlie Daniels Band is the song for this week. I guess the golden fiddle is the Sprint Cup and the devil is either Mike Helton or Brian France as they deal the cards.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Martinsville Drivers Win in Many Brands

Nine of the last eleven races at the paperclip shaped track in Martinsville, Virginia have been won by drivers sporting the Chevrolet brand.

Chevy hasn’t always been the dominate nameplate.  Martinsville started holding NASCAR Cup level races in 1949.  In the 119 Cup races held there have been eleven different brands seeing victory circle.  Even the Fabulous Hudson Hornet tasted victory there twice in 1952.  Mercury also got a pair of wins; one in 1968 with Cale Yarborough and the other in 1973 with David Pearson.

Toyota picked up its lone win with Kyle Busch at the Spring race this year.  Chrysler and Buick own three wins each.  Chrysler’s came early on in the Fifties while the Eighties were kind to the Buicks.  The General Motors brands of Pontiac and Oldsmobile were the cars to beat four and eight times respectively,

Dodge and Plymouth have combined for 26 wins over the years with twelve of those at the hands of Richard Petty.  Petty had two wins in a Ford in 1969 while feuding with Chrysler.  The Blue Oval boys have 24 other victories as well.  The first coming with Fast Freddy Lorenzen behind the wheel in 1961 and the most recent by Kurt Busch in 2002.

Once again Chevrolet drivers have had the upper hand at a race track.  Thirty-eight percent of all wins at the half miler have been with Chevy sheet metal.  A total of forty-five wins greatly out numbers its nearest rival.  Buck Baker was the first to taste victory and started a string of four consecutive wins beginning in 1957.  Jimmy Johnson is the most recent winner, capping off seven straight Chevy wins that he began in the Fall of 2004.

So once again the numbers favor a win coming from Jimmy Johnson.  This race and the championship seem to be his to lose.  He has wins at the paperclip and he drives the right car.

photo credit:  Jason Smith/Getty Images

Martinsville Speedway: Look for a Hendricks Win

Carl Edwards says he can’t wait to get to Martinsville Speedway.  It can’t be because of past successes there.  Cousin Carl has had a rough couple weeks but it’s hard to see any relief on the Virginia bullring’s horizon.  In eight starts, Edwards has just one top ten finish. 

The no. 99 team is 168 points behind championship leader Jimmy Johnson. If they aren’t feeling desperate, Edwards Office Depot group must be edging that way. Coming off two sub-par results and going into a track where his Driver Rating is a 21st best 72.4. No wins and an Ave Finish of 19.1. Desperate measures - ala Talladega - may be in order.

Compare  Edwards Loop stats to these. Four wins, nine top fives and 12 top tens. Average Finish of 6.0, Running Position of 7.1, 337 Fastest Laps Run. An Ave Green Flag Speed of 91.482, 187 Quality Passes, 3075 Laps in the Top 15 and a Driver Rating of 121.2. Those numbers belong to Johnson. And they are all second best in their category except for the Ave Finish which is number one. Jimmy’s stats set the table for what could be a Hendrick Motorsports domination.

Once and Future King of Martinsville?

Fellow Hendrickster, Jeff Gordon has the best Driver Rating - 124.5 - and Series best scores in Fastest Laps and Ave Green Flag Speed. Throw in seven wins, 19 top fives, 25 top tens and an Ave Finish of 7.0. Watch Jeffy. I don’t think he’s going winless for the year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr has the fourth best DR - 100.7. He hasn’t won at Martinsville but he has seven top fives. He has more Green Flag Passes and Quality Passes than anyone else. He’ll need a bunch more. Most of his other stats line up with his fourth place Driver Rating. Junior gives Rick Hendrick a strong three-of-a-kind hand.

The guy with the third best DR - 116.3 - is the once-and-future Chevy pilot, Tony Stewart. Stewart has seven top fives, including two wins. He has a series high Ave Running Position - 6.7 - and Laps in the Top 15 - 3123. 

There are two other Martinsville winners that are in the Chase. One is kind of in - Denny Hamlin who is almost 500 points behind Johnson. The other is in with at least a puncher’s chance - Jeff Burton who lies second to J J, only 69 points back.

Burton has nine top fives and 12 top tens compared to Hamlin’s three and five. But Hamlin has the best of the Driver Ratings and Ave Finishes- 100.6 and 9.5 to 85.3 with 14.5.

The other noteable Driver Rating is the 93.3 of Kyle Busch. Nobody talks about Rowdy much these days. But he got his 20th major league NASCAR win of 2008 last Friday in the Nationwide Series race at Lowes. Steve is a big believer in momentum. Maybe Kyle will find some.

I think momentum is a figment of sports commentators. I picked Tony Stewart to win this race ON PIT ROW this week. I have changed my mind. Go with the stats, my friend Darren at One Bad Wheel, has told me. So I’ll take Jeff Gordon to win. On a hunch, take Bobby Labonte for the upset.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Give Me A “J” at Martinsville

Much like Lowes Motor Speedway, the conversation at Martinsville, especially in October, begins with Jimmie Johnson.

Simply put, the #48 Lowes Chevy lives at the front of the southern Virginia paperclip. I’ve witnessed many a race at the track, having grown up just across the border in North Carolina, and he gets around this place as good as anyone I’ve seen. I’ve stated in the past that some tracks suit some cars and some drivers, and Johnson has taken over the mantle of domination at Martinsville from Jeff Gordon. Those two have battled here in the past and always seem to be the guys to beat, which hasn’t been done here in October. That they’ve done it this long shows how strong the Hendrick organization is, although this year it could be a different story, I’m not going to bet on that happening yet.

As the stats show, this is a driver’s track that requires patience, skill, and determination. The Chase Champ has not had a finish of worse than 5th here, and that was in 2004 with Kurt Busch. Tony Stewart was the runner-up in 2005, with Johnson taking the win and the title in 2006 and 2007. The grandfather clocks are quite popular and when it comes down to it, this race is pivotal for all involved. I really like the added element of suspense the Chase had added to the last short-track race of the season.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Jeff Gordon
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2005 – Tony Stewart – 2nd
2004 – Kurt Busch – 5th

I finally called one last week, as Jeff Burton parlayed tire strategy into a win and return to the championship battle at LMS. This week, I feel like Johnson is as close to a lock as any race this season. However, I like to be different. For that reason I like another Chaser, Greg Biffle. Now, he doesn’t have a stellar record at Martinsville, and I recognize that going into the race. However, he knows he has to do well here, and I believe he is still the top challenger for the title left. That’s where I’m leaning. Your third option here should be obvious, it’s Gordon. If you have to ask why, you need a history lesson.

Sleepers here are hard to find. I’m looking at Ryan Newman in his swan song with Penske. He has run surprisingly well here in the past, and is as good a bet as any. Jamie McMurray could be a factor here as well, especially coming off a season-best run last week. This track is where he turned his season around in April.

Lastly, our song for Martinsville is my biggest throwback yet, Golden Earring’s “Twilight Zone” from 1973. Take that for what you will, and wait until next week. I’ll see you at the track Sunday.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Lowe’s Not a Fan of the Blue Oval

This weekend’s Bank of America 500 at Lowe’s Motor Speedway will be the one-hundredth Cup race held since its inception in June of 1960.

In the first four decades of races at Charlotte, Fords had been a consistant presence.  Twenty-five wins in those first forty years leading to the new millenium ranked the brand among the leaders in manufacturer wins.  Only Chevrolet had more wins in those early years; bringing home the checkers twenty-seven times.

In recent years however it has been a much different story for the boys from Dearborn.  Fords have seen  victory lane only twice in the 21st century.  Matt Kenseth in 2001 and Mark Martin in 2002 brought their Roush Fords home first in that years Coca-Cola 600.  No Ford has come home victorious this century in the Fall race.

Contrast that to the eight wins in seven and a half years for Chevrolet and you can see a definite trend emerging.  Much on the strength of the Hendrick Motorsports teams, the Bowtie Brigade’s owns the mile and a half at Lowe’s.  Five of those wins and four in a row starting in 2004 come at the hands of current points leader Jimmy Johnson.  Johnson has pretty much owned all the success at Lowes since he has entered the sport.

I will go way out on a limb and look for JJ to put up another good run at Lowes Motor Speedway in his Chevrolet.

The only possible chink in the armour could come from the Dodge of Kasey Kahne.  Kahne has won three of the last five races at NASCAR’s home track and all but one of Dodge’s victories in recent times.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

I’d Rather Drive a Chevy at Lowes Motor Speedway

Week five of the Chase has taken place at Lowes Motor Speedway every year to mark the halfway point. The race has seen a Chaser win each time, and 3 of the 4 races have been won by Jimmie Johnson (twice) and Jeff Gordon. Breaking the Chevy streak was Kasey Kahne in 2006. Chevys have taken a majority of top 10 spots, and it’s no wonder because the dominant Chevy teams – Hendrick and Childress – have been represented well. On the Hendrick side, obviously Gordon, Johnson, and previous driver Kyle Busch have top finishes, but Childress drivers Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer haven’t been too shabby either. The wild card could be the Roush Fenway Fords, however. Their last big year was 2005, and they placed 3 cars in the top 5 in this race.

As far as the championship is concerned, your guess is as good as mine. Looking at the track record, Johnson’s won this race in the years he failed to win the championship. He hasn’t won this race in 2 years, but won the championship in both. Go figure. I remember back in 2004 and Kurt Busch was involved in an early incident but came back for a top 5. The overarching theme of this race is that the title weighs heavily on the minds of the contenders.

The winners:
2007 – Jeff Gordon
2006 – Kasey Kahne
2005 – Jimmie Johnson
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson - 14th
2006 – Jimmie Johnson - 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart - 25th
2004 – Kurt Busch - 4th

Fantasy options – Obviously, the man to beat at this track is Johnson. 2 wins and a runner-up finish in the Chase, not to mention his record at the track in general. Another driver to watch out for is Jeff Burton. I’m thinking about starting Burton this week, because he seems to have the speed again in his cars to be a contender. Thirdly, Carl Edwards has yet to experience the same success here as he has in Atlanta and Texas. Could it finally come this year? I’m hoping, but I’m not certain.

Sleepers here are always tricky. Does Kahne count as a sleeper? He had one good month here in an otherwise forgettable 2008 season, and has won this race before. Brian Vickers could finally get it done at this race. He runs extremely well at LMS. Scott Speed, Brad Keselowski, and Bryan Clauson are all expected to make their debuts this week. Count on one of them, most likely Speed or Keselowski, to have a stronger run than expected.

Finally, the song for this week’s race comes courtesy of a personal favorite on my playlist right now, “Coming Home” by Alter Bridge. Check it out, I’m out until next week.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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