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Fantasy NASCAR 2011: Countdown to Daytona

For NASCAR fantasy game players preparing to map season-long strategies and draft their teams, one driver has been the consensus number one over-all pick for the last three seasons. Jimmie Johnson is, and has been, the man.

Johnson and his no. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet have won five straight NASCAR Sprint Cup championships. The 2011 decision was still in doubt entering the final race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Both Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick were in with a chance entering the race. But Johnson closed it out for his fifth consecutive series win.

During that five year run, Johnson has won 35 times and has an average finish of 10.8. The next closest driver in wins is Kyle Busch with 17. Johnson is number one in poles, top fives, top tens and average starting position.

Those stats are official. Unofficially, the no. 48 team has lead NASCAR in stability as well. No team has undergone fewer changes than crew chief Chad Knaus’operation. At least that was true until three races from the end of 2010, Knaus swapped his pit crew with that of the no. 24 Hendrick Motorsport car driven by Jeff Gordon.

That change was the first significant shakeup for the Johnson-Knaus team in five years. The move smacked of panic at the time and may signal that the championship run is running out of steam. Still, Jimmie Johnson is a fantasy points machine.

Jeff Gordon ran a solid, consistent, second statistically to Johnson during the 2010 season. His NASCAR Loop Datadriver rating - a combination of 13 key stat groups taken from NASCAR’s on-track scoring loops - was second to Johnson all year and Gordon’s average finish over the last five seasons is behind only to Johnson as well. Jeff Gordon’s problem is, he just doesn’t win anymore. His 11 top fives and 17 top tens were solid. Zero wins, four DNFs and one pole were a disappointment.

With three races to go, Gordon was out of contention for the Cup championship when his pit crew was given to teammate Johnson. The move did not improve the no. 24 team. More shakeups are ahead. There was a time when Jeff Gordon was always a good pick at any track. Things have changed.

The big challenge to Johnson came from Joe Gibbs Racing and Denny Hamlin. With 8 wins, 2 poles, 14 top fives and 18 top tens, Hamlin overcame early season knee surgery to give Johnson a real challenge. Hamlin is nearly unbeatable in the state of Virginia, winning three of the four races at Martinsville and Richmond. He swept the pair at super fast Texas Motor Speedway too. And Pocono should be named after him.

Kevin Harvick will have a new sponsor for 2011. Budweiser will take the place of Shell Gasolines on the no. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevy. Harvick had a remarkably consistent 2010 season. His 26 top tens were tops in the series and his average finish - 8.7 - was best by far. Three wins and 2 poles along with 16 top fives made Harvick a good fantasy pick in 2010. Two of Harvick’s wins came on restrictor plate tracks at Daytona and Talladega and over the last five years he has more wins and a better average finish than anyone on plate tracks.

Other than the sponsor switch, RCRis leaving Harvick’s team alone and that bodes well for 2011.

Carl Edwards almost single handedly saved 2010 for Ford Racing. Three Roush Racing Fords qualified for the Chase to the Sprint Cup and Edwards won the last two races of 2010. If you believe in momentum, the no. 99had it going into the off-season. The Bob Osborneled team has been very stable and Roush seems to have caught up with the COT programs of the Chevy and Toyota teams now. Carl Edwards is set for a return to eight or so wins and his best shot at a Sprint Cup yet.

JGR’s Kyle Busch will score big in 2011. Recently married and unable to contend for multiple NASCAR championships due to rule changes, Kyle is a top six pick in any one’s fantasy draft and is very tough at the high banked speedways like LasVegas, Charlotte and Atlanta.

Jamie McMurraywon three races and grabbed four poles in 2010 and was season’s biggest surprise. McMurray is very good on plate tracks and a great pick for either road course.

One breakout driver for 2011should be Joey Logano. Logano came on strong late in 2010 with one pole, seven top fives and 16 top tens.

Watch Kasey Kahne. Kahne has a one year contract to drive for Red Bull Racing in 2011 as he waits for his 2012 Hendrick Motorsportsseat. This is the best equipment Kahne has had in years and RedBull is capable of winning poles and races. I see great value in having Kasey Kahne on your roster.

Photo credit - Getty Images for NASCAR

2009 OPer Awards: Worst NASCAR Team

I’m sorry Junior Nation. Your boy’s team sucked in 2009.

The Hendrick Motorsports team was the exception that made the rest of that organization’s dominance of Sprint Cup 2009 season seem sort of mortal.

But the combination that was the no. 88 Amp Energy-National Guard team was like the old “Gang that couldn’t shoot straight”.

Who knows where the blame should go. Dale Earnhardt Jr gets way more than his share. But it didn’t cost him his job. Tony Eury Jr got a bunch of the flack too. And a pink slip.

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Tums Fast Relief 500 from Martinsville

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	7.35
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	5	7.84
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	2	9.84
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.03
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.13
Gerritt Ritt	FOX Sports	Kurt Busch	17	10.16
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.23
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Jeff Gordon	5	10.68
Eric Brewer		Jeff Gordon	5	11.42
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Jimmie Johnson	2	11.65
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	2	11.81
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	5	11.87
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.06
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	5	12.52
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.10
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	2	15.77
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	4	18.52

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Price Chopper 400 from Kansas Speedway

Kansas Speedway may only host one race per season but its sister track, Chicagoland Speedway, held its race in mid-July and offers useful information for deciding a fantasy lineup for the Price Chopper 400.

Kansas features slightly less banking but the action reaches the same speeds. Both are 1.5 mile, D-shaped ovals and fall into the cookie-cutter mold. The most recent cookie-cutter race was held at Michigan International Speedway in August but MIS is a two-mile track with much faster racing. Qualifying is important but not definitive, like most other cookie-cutters the top cars tend to get to the front of the pack in a hurry- even those that start in the middle. The results of this race should be telling for what to expect in next week’s Pepsi 500 at Auto Club Speedway in California. Fontana is the same D-shape with similar banking in the corners but is a longer race track with higher speeds.

Be sure to check out my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table which lists the results and average finish at eight of the 10 Chase tracks that held events earlier this season.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Strong qualifier - History of winning poles or qualifying inside the top-five.
• Good qualifier - History of qualifying inside the top-10.
• Value play - Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
• Risky play - Good overall history at this week’s track but poor recent finishes.

1. Mark Martin… Won in ‘05, third in ‘06 at Kansas- average finish of 15.0 in ‘07-‘08. Dominated at Chicagoland in July victory, leading 195 of 271 laps. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Strong qualifier. Has won three poles at Kansas, including the last two- average start of 4.9, best among all drivers. Won last year’s race from the pole. Chicagoland in July: started third, finished eighth, average running position of second. Y!-A2
3. Jeff Gordon… Won the first two Kansas races in ‘01 and ‘02, finished fourth last year and fifth in ‘07. Runner-up at Chicagoland in July. Y!-A3
4. Denny Hamlin… No top-10 finishes in four career Cup starts at Kansas but finished a career-best 11th last year, plus won the Nationwide race. Started fourth, finished fifth At Chicagoland in July. Y!-B1
5. Tony Stewart… Won in ‘06 but finished 39th (accident) in ‘07, 40th last year. Average finish of 6.5 from ‘01-’06. Finished fourth at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B2
6. Kurt Busch… Has started where he’s finished in the last two Kansas races: ‘08- 31st/30th, ‘07- 12th/11th. Started 22nd, finished 17th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B3
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 24.0 in two career Kansas races. Started 42nd, finished 20th last year. Finished 10th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B4
8. Brian Vickers… Finishes where he starts at Kansas: average start 13.8, average finish 13.3 in four career starts. At Chicagoland in July: won the pole, finished seventh, average running position of fourth. Y!-B5
9. Ryan Newman… Runner-up in ‘01 and ‘02 races at Kansas, won in ‘03 but has not finished better than 16th since- average finish of 27.0 in those five races. Finished sixth at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B6
10. Clint Bowyer… Average finish of 7.7 in three career starts at Kansas, his hometown track- three straight top-fives in Nationwide races. Started fifth, finished ninth at Chicagoland in July. Y!-A4
11. Kasey Kahne… Erratic performance at Kansas. Started eighth, finished 21st last year. Started 29th, finished ninth in ‘07. Finished third at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B7
12. Kyle Busch… Started 27th, finished 28th in last year’s race at Kansas, average finish of 26.8 in five career starts. Started sixth, finished 33rd (engine) at Chicagoland in July.
13. Greg Biffle… Won in ‘07 at Kansas, finished third last year. Laps led in four of the last five Kansas races. Started 35th, finished 31st at Chicagoland in July.
14. Carl Edwards… Runner-up in last year’s race at Kansas, DNF (accident) in ‘07. Average finish of 4.5 in ‘05 and ‘06 races. Started 25th, finished 14th at Chicagoland in July.
15. Matt Kenseth… Started third, finished fifth in last year’s race at Kansas. Average finish of 29.0 in ‘06 and ‘07 races. Finished 23rd at Chicagoland in July.
16. Kevin Harvick… Strong value play. Has finished sixth in two consecutive races at Kansas. Finished 19th at Chicagoland in July.
17. Marcos Ambrose… Strong value play. Started 20th, finished 36th in last year’s race, first career start at Kansas- finished 11th in the Nationwide race. Finished 11th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-C1
18. David Reutimann… Strong value play. Started 40th, finished 19th in last year’s race at Kansas- average finish of 15.3 in three Nationwide races. Finished 12th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-B8
19. Casey Mears… Strong value play. Started 10th, finished 14th in last year’s race at Kansas. Average finish of 4.7 from ‘05-’07. Finished 28th at Chicagoland in July.
20. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Started 14th, finished ninth in last year’s race, first career start at Kansas. Finished 13th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-C2
21. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average finish of 11.0 over the last three races at Kansas. Finished 15th at Chicagoland in July.
22. Joey Logano… Started 28th, finished 39th in last year’s race, first career start at Kansas- finished ninth in the Nationwide race. Finished 18th at Chicagoland in July.
23. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 18.0 in eight career starts at Kansas. Started 23rd, finished 37th at Chicagoland in July.
24. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Average finish at Kansas jumps to 19.2 when excusing three DNFs due to accident. Finished 21st at Chicagoland in July. Y!-C3
25. David Ragan… Weak value play. Average start 15.0, average finish 12.0 in two career starts at Kansas- finished third in last year’s Nationwide race. Finished 25th at Chicagoland in July.
26. Elliott Sadler… Weak value play. Last two Kansas races: average start 9.5, average finish 9.0. Finished 27th at Chicagoland in July.
27. Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 23rd, finished 33rd in last year’s race, first career start at Kansas- average finish of 6.9 in seven IndyCar Series starts. Started 16th, finished 38th at Chicagoland in July. Y!-C4
28. Jamie McMurray… Finishes where he starts at Kansas: ‘08- 16th/17th, ‘07- 20th/24th, ‘06- 41st/42nd (accident). Finished 22nd at Chicagoland in July.
29. Martin Truex Jr…. Three career starts at Kansas, starting position improving but not finishes, ‘08- fifth/43rd (transmission), ‘07- ninth/38th, ‘06- 23rd, 11th. Finished 16th at Chicagoland in July.
30. Brad Keselowski… Long shot value play. No career Cup starts at Kansas, finished sixth in last year’s Nationwide race.
31. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Started seventh, finished 25 at Kansas last year. Started eighth, finished 29th at Chicagoland in July.
32. Paul Menard… Finished 27th in ‘07 and ‘08 races at Kansas.
33. Michael Waltrip… Finished 35th at Kansas last year, 20th at Chicagoland in July.
34. Reed Sorenson… Finished 26th at Kansas last year, 24th at Chicagoland in July.
35. David Stremme… Finished 17th in ‘07, most recent Cup start at Kansas. Finished 26th at Chicagoland in July.
36. Robby Gordon… Finished 37th at Kansas last year, 35th at Chicagoland in July.
37. Scott Speed… No career Cup starts at Kansas. Started second, won the ARCA Re/Max Series race last year. Started second, finished 36th at Chicagoland in July.
38. Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Kansas. Started last, led 20 laps, finished runner-up in ‘07 ARCA Re/Max Series race.
39. John Andretti… Finished 33rd in ‘07, most recent Cup start at Kansas. Finished 30th at Chicagoland in July.
40. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Kansas.
41. Joe Nemechek… Finished 38th at Kansas last year, start and park at Chicagoland in July. Won from the pole in ‘04.
42. Michael McDowell… No career Cup starts at Kansas. Finished 11th in ‘07 ARCA Re/Max Series race.
43. Dave Blaney… Finished 31st at Kansas last year, start and park at Chicagoland in July.
44. Mike Bliss… Has not started at Kansas since ‘05, start and park at Chicagoland in July.

Brad Keselowski ON PIT ROW

Brad Keselowski, driver of the no. 88 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet for Dale Earnhardt Jr’s JR Motorsporsts in NASCAR’s Nationwide Series joined Steve an I ON PIT ROW this week. We talked about driving for Junior and Brad’s opportunities in the Sprint Cup Series with Hendrick Motorsports too. Check it out.

Photo credit: BethAnne Heisler for ON PIT ROW

2008 OPeR Award: Worst Post Race Interview

Every few weeks ON PIT ROW, the fact that the driver who has won more Sprint Cup races the last four years and now, three straight Cup Series championships, just doesn’t get the respect he deserves.

Jimmie Johnson deserves better. But hell, we’ve even been spelling his name incorrectly for the last three years. Who are we to change now?

J J gets the OPeR for bad post race interviews for the same reason that he probably gets slighted in the respect department. He’s boring. If he’d stop winning and get pissed off once in a while, he’d get noticed more. Well, maybe.

2008 OPeR Award: Best Crew Chief

This was a close one. Bob Osborne, crew chief for Carl Edwards No 99 Office Depot Ford Fusion was a strong contender for our top crew chief. The comments from our original 2008 OPeR post are a good indication. If Bob had won, I would have had no problem with it.

But Ozzy didn’t get the coveted OPeR this time. Chad (yaawwnn) Knaus did. Again.

Once again, Knaus seemingly made all the right moves, the necessary adjustments and took advantage of heading the most stable of all Sprint Cup Series teams, from 2007 to 2008. Somebody’s going to have to beat these guys.

2008 OPeR Award: Worst Crew Chief

I was surprised at the unanimity of agreement on this one. I guess it points out, in a way, just how much pressure having NASCAR’s most popular figure - Dale Earnhardt Jr - as your driver. 

Tony Eury Jr DID get Junior and his no. 88 Amp Energy Drink/National Guard Chevy into the Chase for the Sprint Cup. They won a qualifying race at Daytona, the Budweiser Shootout and the first 2008 race at Michigan International Speedway. That is not, by my definition, a failure of a season.

But I voted right along with Steve and Marc and Matt. Better win it all in 2009 Tony.

2008 OPeR Award: Best Owner/Team

All right all you fans of the Coach and the Cat in the Hat, bring it on. But you will not convince me that, in 2008 - and ‘06 and ‘07 too - Joe Gibbs, Jack Roush or anyone else was the equal of Mr Hendrick in NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series.

A third straight championship probably would have been enough, but throw in the recruitment and successful integration of NASCAR’s biggest box-office star, Dale Earnhardt Jr, the addition for ‘09 of Hall-of-famer Mark Martin (full time too) and a satellite team that includes Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman.

That’s Earnhardt Jr, Stewart, Martin, Newman to go with the seven Cup Championships of  Jeff Gordon and Jimmy Johnson. We rest our case, your Honor.

NASCAR Fans–Do You Believe in Miracles

Bobby Labonte holds the only win at Homestead-Miami Speedway in a Chevrolet, while Matt Kenseth is the defending race winner.

The only Dodge win in the short history of the south Florida track come from the unlikely source of Bill Elliott. Elliott only won four races for Evernham Racing after resurrecting the brand in NASCAR.  Tony Stewart picked off the first two wins ever at HMS in Pontiacs.

The majority of wins have come from the Blue Oval Boys.  Fords of Jack Roush have won five of the nine races.  Kurt Busch started the winning in 2002.  Greg Biffle “owns” Homestead with three consecutive wins in ‘04 through ‘06; while Matt Kenseth is the defending race winner.  While Roush drivers have been celebrating race wins over the last three years at the finale; they have had to watch Jimmy Johnson revel in his championships.

Jack Roush would like nothing better than to be able to celebrate a championship and a race win for Carl Edwards. It’s the long shot of all long shots to believe that JJ can’t pull off a 36th place finish.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

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