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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Food City 500 at Bristol

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row			14.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr		12
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Juan Pablo Montoya		15
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kyle Busch		9
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin		13
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr		6 5.25
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch		9.5
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com			9.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Dale Earnhardt Jr		12
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kyle Busch		7.75
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Kyle Busch		12
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Kyle Busch		12
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin		12.5
Eric McClung	On Pit Row			19.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Denny Hamlin		11.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving			19.25
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Marcos Ambrose		20.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kyle Busch		15.75

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Food City 500 at Bristol

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Kyle Busch		8
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner			10.5
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Mark Martin		10
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com			9.75
Eric McClung	On Pit Row			18.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kyle Busch		18.5
Jon Rodgers Dan Beaver	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon Kyle Busch		10.5 7.5
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row			19.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Matt Kenseth		15.75
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch		12
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving			16.5
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer		20
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Mark Martin		11
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports			14
Jay Busby	Yahoo! Sports			11
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch		13.5
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick		10.5
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Mark Martin		13.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch		18
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kyle Busch		21.75

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway

NASCAR’s amphitheatre, Bristol Motor Speedway, is known for aggressive driving and carnage on the race track. However, the resurfacing in 2007 added variable banking, opening up room but dialed down the beating and banging. The SAFER barrier has been extended, narrowing Turns Two and Four by nearly three feet, so perhaps some of the physicality may return. This is the first race on a short track this season, so the results over the past few weeks on intermediates carry some momentum, but little else.

Chasing the pole at Bristol Motor Speedway

1. Mark Martin… Swept the poles last year at Bristol.
2. Greg Biffle… Started fourth and second last year at Bristol.
3. Dave Blaney… Started eighth and fourth last year at Bristol.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.

Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.

Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Kyle Busch… Three-time winner at Bristol (’09 sweep, 3/07), has led 57.3 percent of the laps in the last three races– at least one lap led in eight straight. Y!-A1
2. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Bristol (8/98, 8/93), average finish of 4.0 last year at Bristol– 12.4 in 42 career starts. Y!-A2
3. Matt Kenseth… Two-time winner at Bristol (8/06, 8/05), three Top 10s in the last four starts at BMS. Y!-B2
4. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 7.5 in ‘07 and ‘08 at Bristol, DNF (engine) and fourth last year. Y!-A3
5. Jimmie Johnson… Average finish of 21.2 from ‘05-’08 at Bristol, 5.5 in ‘09- led over 80 laps in both. Y!-A4
6. Kevin Harvick… Won 4/05 race at Bristol. Average finish of 3.0 in ‘08 at Bristol, 34.0 last year. Y!-B3
7. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 4.0 from ‘08-’09 at Bristol.
8. Jeff Gordon… Five-time winner at Bristol (8/02, 3/98, 4/97, 3/96, 4/95), average finish of 10.8 (two Top Fives) from ‘08-’09 at Bristol.
9. Clint Bowyer… Average finish of 5.3 from ‘07-’08 at Bristol, 17.0 last year. Y!-B4
10. Kasey Kahne… Last five races at Bristol: two Top Fives, three Top 10s. Y!-B5
11. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished a career-best ninth in last year’s March race at Bristol.
12. Jeff Burton… Won 3/08 race at Bristol, finished eighth and 18th last year. Y!-B6
13. Kurt Busch… Five-time winner at Bristol (3/06, 3/04, ‘03 sweep, 3/02), average finish of 11.3 in ‘08 and ‘09.
14. Tony Stewart… Won 8/01 race at Bristol. Average finish of 11.0 in ‘08 Bristol races, 25.0 last year.
15. Ryan Newman… Last five Bristol races: four finishes of six or seventh place. Y!-B7
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 8/04 race at Bristol, average finish of 11.6 in 20 career starts. Y!-B8
17. Marcos Ambrose… Strong value play. Average finish of 6.5 in two career starts at Bristol.
18. Carl Edwards… Two-time winner at Bristol (8/08, 8/07), average finish of 15.5 last year.
19. David Reutimann… Average finish of 22.5 in ‘08 Bristol races, 14.5 in ‘09.
20. Scott Speed… Strong value play. Started third, finished 15th in last year’s August race at Bristol. Y!-C1
21. Brad Keselowski… Weak value play. No career Cup starts at Bristol. Average finish of 11.3 in six career N’wide starts, won 8/08 race.
22. Joey Logano… Weak value play. Average finish of 12.5 in two career starts at Bristol. Average finish of 12.5 in two career N’wide starts.
23. Brian Vickers… Tied a career-best 12th in last year’s August race at Bristol, average finish of 24.7 in 11 career starts.
24. Jamie McMurray… Average finish of 40.0 in the last two March races at Bristol, 11.5 in August.
25. A.J. Allmendinger… Average finish of 32.4 in five career starts at Bristol, career-best 16th in last year’s March race. Y!-C2
26. Paul Menard… Average finish of 24.2 in five career starts at Bristol, no Top 10s. Y!-C3
27. Martin Truex Jr…. Average finish of 25.0 in eight career starts at Bristol, no Top 10s. Average running of position of 10th in 8/09 race.
28. David Ragan… Average finish of 24.0 in the last two March races at Bristol, 12.0 in August.
29. Elliott Sadler… Won 3/01 race at Bristol, average finish of 25.5 since ‘07.
30. Regan Smith… Long shot value play. Average finish of 23.0 in four career starts at Bristol.
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 33.0 in four career starts at Bristol. Y!-C4
32. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 23.0 in three starts from ‘08-’09.
33. Michael Waltrip… Sub for Michael McDowell. Average finish of 27.8 since ‘07 at Bristol.
34. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 29.0 from ‘08-’09 at Bristol.
35. Bobby Labonte… Average finish of 29.8 from ‘08-’09 at Bristol.
36. David Gilliland… Average finish of 31.0 in seven career starts at Bristol.
37. Mike Bliss… No Cup starts at Bristol since ‘07. Average finish of 18.2 in 11 career N’wide starts.
38. David Stremme… Sub for Boris Said. Average finish of 13.5 in ‘07 races at Bristol, no starts in ‘08, 19.5 in ‘09.
39. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Bristol. Finished 28th in last year’s Truck race.
40. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Bristol.
41. Aric Almirola… Likely start and park. Has failed to qualify for two races this season. Average finish of 23.0 in five career starts at Bristol. Finished sixth in last year’s Truck race.
42. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park.
43. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
44. Casey Mears… Has failed to qualify for all four races this season.
45. Terry Cook… Has failed to qualify for all four races this season.

Contender Or Pretender: Bristol

Denny Hamlin (Contender) - Denny Hamlin isn’t the best intermediate track driver in NASCAR, but what he is good at is short tracks. In the last 4 Bristol races Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 6 every race. His overall record in the COT would be spotless at Bristol if it wasn’t for incidences beyond his control. He nearly won the very first COT race at Bristol but fuel pump issues ruined his day in the COT’s debut. In the next Bristol race Denny Hamlin started at the back of the pack and drove his way to the front and then his engine blew up. Just because Denny is off to a slow start this year don’t be afraid to pick him at Bristol.

Carl Edwards (Pretender) - Don’t let his probation be the thing that scares you from picking Edwards at Bristol, let the fact that the majority of his success at Bristol comes in August, not March be the reason (sounds more intelligent).  Edwards has never finished in the top ten in a March race at Bristol. In August (COT Era) Carl has 2 wins and a 16th place finish to his name.

Kevin Harvick (Contender) - Bristol has always been a friendly Kevin Harvick track. He has the perfect amount of aggression needed to be successful at the fastest half mile in the world.  His performances at Bristol were down last year, but what wasn’t at RCR? When you take out his results from 2009 his COT average finish is 6.5.

Brian Vickers (Pretender) - Do you know when was the last time Brian Vickers finished in the top ten at Bristol? OK, I admit it’s a trick question because he never has. If you’re a Brian Vickers fan then maybe you’ll be encouraged to hear he has led a grand total of one lap at Bristol in his career.

Jimmie Johnson (Contender) - If you’re a fantasy racer this name and Bristol should appear as a odd choice to you and traditionally I would agree with you. Last year Jimmie Johnson had a top 5 car in both Bristol races. I think we’ll see more of the good Bristol Jimmie this year.

Mark Martin (Pretender) - Last year Martin finished 6th and 2nd at Bristol. I believe those finishes were anomalies because Bristol is not a Mark Martin friendly track. He dodged this track for two years in his partial retirement because of that very reason.  When you study prior Mark Martin races at Bristol you’ll discover that he finished 6th in 2006, but to find his next top ten you have to go all the way back to 2000.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Kobalt Tools 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway

With eight of the same drivers making up the Top 10 in two straight races, it is clear what teams have their intermediate program figured out. Momentum is key heading into third intermediate race in a row during this part of the schedule. Atlanta is first of eight races to be held on a 24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-oval but with the standings so top heavy, expect many of the same drivers to play similar parts.

	Fontana		Las Vegas
1	Jimmie Johnson	1	Jimmie Johnson
2	Kevin Harvick	2	Kevin Harvick
3	Jeff Burton	3	Jeff Gordon
4	Mark Martin	4	Mark Martin
5	Joey Logano	5	Matt Kenseth
6	Kurt Busch	6	Joey Logano
7	Matt Kenseth	7	Tony Stewart
8	Clint Bowyer	8	Clint Bowyer
9	Tony Stewart	9	Kasey Kahne
10	Greg Biffle	10	Greg Biffle

• NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

Chasing the pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway

1. Mark Martin… Won pole at last year’s Kobalt Tools 500, started seventh in September race.
2. Kurt Busch… Won the pole last week at Vegas. Started second and sixth last year Atlanta.
3. Kyle Busch… Started ninth and fifth last year at Atlanta. Average start of 7.0 this season.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Atlanta: ‘07 sweep, 10/04. Eleven Top 10s in 17 career starts at Atlanta. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Four-time winner at Atlanta: 10/03, 3/99, 11/98, 3/95. Since 10/05: Eight Top 10s in nine races, all 12th or better. Y!-A2
3. Kevin Harvick… Won 3/01 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 3.0 last year. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 11/94, 11/91. Finished 31st (Average Running Position of 14th) and fifth last year at Atlanta. Y!-A3
5. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 12.0 last year at Atlanta, 6.0 from ‘06-’08. Y!-B2
6. Clint Bowyer… Finished sixth in three straight March races at Atlanta. Y!-B3
7. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 7.0 at Atlanta in ‘08, DNF (crash) and 10th place finish last year. Y!-A4
8. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 10/06, 3/02. Average finish of 4.3 in March races since ‘06 at Atlanta.
9. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 4.5 in ‘07 at Atlanta, 14.0 in ‘08. Finished 14th and 34th last year. Y!-B4
10. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner at Atlanta: 10/08, ‘05 sweep. Finished third and 37th last year at Atlanta.
11. Kurt Busch… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 3/09, 10/02. Won last year’s March race, DNF (crash) in September. Average finish of 11.0 in ‘07-’08 March races, 7.0 in September.
12. Kasey Kahne… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 9/09, 3/06. Finished seventh in last year’s March race. Y!-B5
13. Joey Logano… Average start of 38.0, average finish of 26.0 in ‘09 at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth last year. Y!-B6
14. Kyle Busch… Won 3/08 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 15.5 last year at Atlanta.
15. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 14.0 in last two March races at Atlanta, 4.5 in Sep/Oct.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 3/04 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 13.5 since ‘07. Y!-B7
17. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished at career-best third in September race last year at Atlanta.
18. David Reutimann… Finished at career-best fourth in September race last year at Atlanta. Y!-B8
19. Brian Vickers… Average finish of 6.0 at Atlanta last year.
20. Jamie McMurray… Finished 15th in last year’s March race at Atlanta, 28th in September.
21. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 15.0 in ‘08 at Atlanta, finished 22nd and ninth last year.
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Finished 10th and 26th last year at Atlanta. IROC: Won ‘05 and ‘06.
23. A.J. Allmendinger… Strong value play. Average finish of 16.8 in four career starts at Atlanta. Truck: DNFs (crashes) in ‘06 and ‘07. Y!-C1
24. Paul Menard… Strong value play. Finished 15th in last year’s September race at Atlanta. Y!-C2
25. Scott Speed… Strong value play. DNF (crash) and 24th place last year at Atlanta. Truck: 27th, fifth in ‘08. Y!-C3
26. Bill Elliott… Weak value play. Five-time winner at Atlanta: ‘92 sweep, 11/87, ‘85 sweep. DNF (crash) in last year’s March race at Atlanta, running 16th midrace. Y!-C4
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 20.5 last year at Atlanta.
28. David Ragan… Average finish of 26.0 last year at Atlanta.
29. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth in ‘08, fourth last year.
30. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 30.0 in three career starts at Atlanta.
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 30.2 in four career starts at Atlanta. N’wide: 15th in ‘07. IndyCar: fourth in ‘01. IROC: ninth of 12 in ‘06.
32. Regan Smith… Average finish of 34.0 in two career starts at Atlanta (both in ‘08). N’wide: 22.0 from ‘06-’07. Truck: 23.5 in ‘05, ‘07.
33. Bobby Labonte… Long shot value play. Six-time winner at Atlanta: 3/03, 11/01, 11/99, 3/98, 11/97, 11/96. DNF (engine) in March race, 18th in September last year at Atlanta.
34. Robby Gordon… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.0 last year at Atlanta.
35. David Gilliland… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.5 last year at Atlanta.
36. Travis Kvapil… DNF (engine) last year in March race at Atlanta. Average finish of 26.0 in ‘08.Truck: 11.8 in five career starts (’04, ‘07-’08). IROC: fifth in ‘04.
37. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: ‘03, ‘06. ARCA: ‘02. Average finish of 33.5 this season.
38. Max Papis… DNF (crash) in last year’s September race, first career Cup start at Atlanta. Truck: finished 20th last year. IROC: 8.5 from ‘05-’06.
39. Dave Blaney… Did not start and park last week, finished 29th.
40. Michael McDowell… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: DNF (transmission) last year.
41. Mike Bliss… Start and parked both races last year at Atlanta. N’wide: seventh in ‘08, start and park last year. Truck: seventh, won in ‘06, eighth last year.
42. Boris Said… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at Atlanta.
43. Aric Almirola… Likely start and park. Finished 21st in last year’s March race at Atlanta. N’wide: 27th in ‘07. Truck: 18th, DNF (engine) in ‘06.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Two DNFs last year.
45. Casey Mears… Failed to qualify three times this season. Average finish of 21.2 in 14 career starts at Atlanta.
46. Terry Cook… Failed to qualify three times this season. No career Cup starts. Truck: 12.5 in 10 career starts.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Kobalt Tools 500

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	5	14.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Paul Menard	5	15
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	18	9
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	21	13
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Jeff Gordon Dale Earnhardt Jr	18 15	6 5.25
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	9.5
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	9.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kurt Busch	1	7.75
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12.5
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	19.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	18	11.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	19.25
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendiger	6	20.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	18	15.75

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Kevin Harvick	9	8
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Matt Kenseth	2	10.5
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	9	10
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Greg Biffle	8	9.75
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	33	18.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	12	18.5
Jon Rodgers Dan Beaver	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Jhnson Jimmie Johnson	12 12	10.5 7.5
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	39	19.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Carl Edwards	39	15.75
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	25	16.5
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	33	20
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	12	11
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	12	14
Jay Busby	Yahoo! Sports	Jeff Gordon	18	11
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	9	13.5
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	10.5
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	12	13.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	33	18
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	12	21.75

Contender Or Pretender: Atlanta

Jeff Gordon (Contender) – In the 4 COT races held at Atlanta Motor Speedway Jeff Gordon is the only driver to sweep the top ten in every race. Over the last 4 COT Atlanta races Jeff Gordon has the best average finish (6th) and the second best average start (7.0).

At Las Vegas Jeff Gordon was absolutely dominant until the end of the race and led a race high 219 laps. In 2009 Jeff Gordon scored the most points in he series on intermediate tracks and had finishes of 2nd and 8th at Atlanta.

Jimmie Johnson (Pretender) - THIS IS NOT A TYPO. Did you read Charlie’s post about Does Jimmie Johnson’s Greatness Get You Down? If it does let me try to help you out here. In the stats that you can download from the Onpitrow.com newsletter you’ll be overwhelmed by how dominant Jimmie Johnson’s been at Atlanta over the last 10 races. He’s the best in the series at Atlanta in terms of  best average start, average mid race, average finish, average position, most laps in the top 15, laps led, percent of laps led, and last but not least he boasts a driver rating 110.1 which is nearly 5 points higher than his closest competitor (Carl Edwards).

So now you’re wondering how in the world is he a pretender? He hasn’t been that good in the 4 COT races at Atlanta. In the COT era his average finish here is 15th. In the first COT Atlanta race his car was out in the weeds and got lapped on the track several times (first race graph). In the next Atlanta COT race he finished 2nd but that race result was the product of fresh tires in a near legendary sprint to the finish. His second place finish isn’t even close to reflecting how the 48 car was that day (second race graph). In the spring 2009 COT race Jimmie wasn’t competitive late in the race and finished 9th (third race graph). Last fall Jimmie Johnson was competitive for the first half the race but the 48 lost the handle of the car and shortly after that they suffered a mechanical failure and were done for the day (fourth race graph).

So after all of this I’ll say Jimmie Johnson isn’t bad here, but he certainly isn’t a contender. His stats are heavily padded by what he accomplished in the old car and that era is over.

Kevin Harvick (Contender) – Last fall at Atlanta is when I started to see something in Kevin Harvick that would translate into 2010 success. He had the car to beat in the second Atlanta race of 2009, but the 29 car wasn’t the best on short runs which is how that race was decided. He was extremely strong on the long runs (sound familiar lately).

This is a little bit off topic but check out what I said about Kevin Harvick in a Experts Fantasy NASCAR draft earlier this year.

Denny Hamlin (Pretender) – Denny Hamlin has been pretty bad this year. After Las Vegas and California I see no real reason to be optimistic about Denny Hamlin at Atlanta. At Las Vegas his average running position was 20.5. He had similar uncompetitive numbers at California. For a driver who many felt would be Jimmie Johnson’s biggest competitor this year I don’t think he could do any worse.

Kyle Busch (Contender) – Kyle smoked the field last fall at Texas. He led 232 laps, but the 18 team was off in the fuel department. His success that day will translate into a good run at Atlanta Sunday.

Ryan Newman (Pretender) – I can’t think of a worse intermediate track for Newman. Going back to 2005 Newman has only finished in the top ten once, and that was a 9th place finish last fall (product of fresh tires at the end). He’s good at winning the pole here (7 poles), but that  hasn’t translated into good finishes.

Fantasy NASCAR Racing Preview: Shelby American 400 at Las Vegas

As the first of 10 races at 1.5 mile intermediate tracks, the results from Las Vegas Motor Speedway will preview what is to come next week at Atlanta Motor Speedway and perhaps beyond. After this stretch of races are three races on short and/or flat tracks before heading to Texas Motor Speedway for another intermediate course.

In all, there are seven 1.5 mile tracks on the Sprint Cup schedule. Three feature 24 degree banking in the corners (Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte Motor Speedway) and each hold two races a piece. Las Vegas, Chicagoland Speedway, Kansas Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway all fall into the “other” grouping of 1.5 tracks. Each holds one race each which are spread out on the schedule. At 20 degrees in the corners, LVMS features the most banking among them which was part of the redesign for the 2007 season.

• NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Las Vegas, Chicagoland, Kansas and Homestead-Miami [Low-banked 1.5 mile tracks]

Chasing the pole at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

1. Kyle Busch… Has won two straight poles at LVMS.
2. Kurt Busch… Started second at LVMS last year, 5.7 career average start. Only driver to start inside the Top Five at Fontana, Las Vegas and Atlanta early last year.
3. Mark Martin… Average start of 8.3 since LVMS was redesigned.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Kyle Busch… Won last year’s race at LVMS, average finish of 5.2 over the last five. Y!-A1
2. Jimmie Johnson… Won three straight races (’05-’07) at LVMS. Finished 24th last year, Average Running Position of sixth. Y!-A2
3. Jeff Burton… Two-time winner at LVMS (’99-’00). Top Fives in two straight races at LVMS, eight Top 10s in 12 career starts. Y!-B1
4. Kevin Harvick… Finished a career-best fourth at LVMS in ‘08, 12th last year. Y!-B2
5. Jeff Gordon… Won at LVMS in ‘01. Finishes of sixth or better in four of the last five races at LVMS. Y!-A3
6. Mark Martin… Won inaugural race in ‘98. DNF (engine) last year, average finish of 7.0 from ‘06-’08. Y!-A4
7. Clint Bowyer… Finished a career-best second last year at LVMS. Y!-B3
8. Greg Biffle… Finishes of eighth or better in four of the last five races at LVMS.
9. Carl Edwards… Won at LVMS in ‘08, 17th last year.
10. Matt Kenseth… Two-time winner at LVMS (’03-’04). DNF (engine) last year, finished 20th in ‘08- Average Running Position of fifth. Average finish of 3.2 from ‘03-’07. Y!-B4
11. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 11.0 in four career starts at LVMS, finished 22nd last year.
12. Tony Stewart… Finished 26th last year at LVMS, Average Running Position of 13th. DNF (crash) in ‘08, seventh in ‘07.
13. Kasey Kahne… Two DNFs due to crash in six career starts at LVMS. Finished 11th last year, average finish of 5.8 in non-DNFs. Y!-B5
14. Brian Vickers… Finished a career-best eighth at LVMS in ‘09. Y!-B6
15. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Three straight finishes of 11th or better at LVMS, runner-up in ‘08. Y!-B7
16. Jamie McMurray… Top 10s in two of the last three races at LVMS. Y!-B8
17. Kurt Busch… Average start of 5.7 in nine career starts at LVMS, average finish of 25.8 over the last four years.
18. Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 24.0 in three career starts at LVMS.
19. Martin Truex Jr…. Finished 32nd last year, average finish of 13.5 from ‘07-’08.
20. Joey Logano… Started 20th, finished 13th in first career Cup start at LVMS.
21. David Reutimann… Started and finished fourth last year at LVMS.
22. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 15.6 since ‘07 at LVMS.
23. Sam Hornish Jr…. Strong value play. Career-best 16th place finish last year at LVMS. Y!-C1
24. Paul Menard… Strong value play. Average Running Position of 19th last year, finished 35th (crash). Y!-C2
25. Scott Speed… Strong value play. Started 42nd, finished 21st in first career Cup start at LVMS. Y!-C3
26. David Ragan… DNF (engine) last year at LVMS, finished a career-best seventh in ‘08, 37th in ‘07.
27. Elliott Sadler… Finished 29th last year at LVMS, 14th or better from ‘06-’08.
28. Marcos Ambrose… Started fifth, finished 20th in first career Cup start at LVMS.
29. A.J. Allmendinger… Weak value play. Started 19th, finished 33rd in first career Cup start at LVMS. Y!-C4
30. Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Finished fifth last year at LVMS– average running position of 10th.
31. Brad Keselowski… Started 13th, finished 38rd in first career Cup start at LVMS.
32. Robby Gordon… DNF (crash) in ‘08, average finish in 14.6 (’09,’07,’06)
33. Regan Smith… Long shot value play. Started 18th, finished a career-best 19th last year.
34. David Gilliland… Long shot value play. Average finish of 19.3 in three career starts at LVMS.
35. Travis Kvapil… Long shot value play. Finished a career-best eighth in ‘08, did not start at LVMS last year.
36. Max Papis… Started 26th, finished 36th last year at LVMS.
37. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at LVMS.
38. Casey Mears… Average finish of 17.3 in seven career starts at LVMS. Two DNQs this season.
39. Mike Bliss… No Cup starts at LVMS since ‘05.
40. Johnny Sauter… No Cup starts at LVMS since ‘07.
41. Dave Blaney… Likely start and park.
42. Boris Said… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at LVMS.
43. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at LVMS.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
45. Aric Almirola… Likely start and park. DNFs due to crash in two career starts at LVMS (’09, ‘07).
46. Terry Cook… No career Cup starts. Two DNQs this season.

Contender Or Pretender: Las Vegas

Jeff Gordon (Contender) – Some fantasy NASCAR prognosticators will say some funny things this week like “I don’t think Jeff will race hard at Las Vegas because he’s afraid of hitting the inside wall again”. Come on guys, surely you can do better than that.

His big wreck at Las Vegas was in 2008. When you go around that year over the last five years his other finishes were 4th, 5th, 2nd & 6th. Not to bad. When he wrecked at Vegas in 2008 he was also running towards the front of the pack.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Pretender) – I don’t mean to sound like a cherry picker this early in this post but Earnhardt Jr has actually been pretty good at Las Vegas over the last three years. His average finish over that span is 7.6. Last year he finished 10th. I don’t want anyone looking at Dale Jr stats and thinking they’re going to be sneaky and get a good finish out of him this week. It might happen, but at Las Vegas I would take the gamble and say it won’t.

Jimmie Johnson (Contender) – Not  to be a cherry picker here again but if you missed it Jimmie hasn’t been very good here lately. He swept this race from 2005 to 2007, but in the COT era he’s been pretty bad. How bad you may ask? Well 29th and 24th bad (those are uncompetitive numbers, not crash numbers). Forget all that because this weekend the Champ wants back his Las Vegas champions belt.

Denny Hamlin (Pretender) – Last year at California Denny Hamlin was a challenger for the victory. Last week at California he was a 20th place car. At this point in time the 11 car for the most part has looked lost in both races. I hate to throw it out there but is the foot a problem, or are they just not as competitive this year?

Kyle Busch (Contender) – This is Kyle’s home track and he’s also the defending champion of the race. Last year he won the pole, started at the back of the pack (engine change), and drove to victory. He definitely earned that one. Last year in the fall Texas race he smoked the field but was denied the win. Look for him to be a contender on Sunday.

Tony Stewart (Pretender) – Has he passed anyone on the track this year yet? Well the answer to that is yes. In 2010 he has a pass differential of 2. So far in both races this year I’ve been less than impressed with this teams performances. Despite his ninth place finish at California don’t  be fooled, he’ll be a pretender at Vegas. Stewart scores a top ten at Vegas about fifty percent of the time and I know there’s better odds out there.

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