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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Dover 2 - AAA 400

Race number three of the 2011 Sprint Cup Series Chase is set to start around 2:15 pm eastern time on Sunday at Dover International Speedway. 400 laps are set to be run around this 1.0-mile race track after two practice sessions (on Friday) and qualifying (on Saturday) are completed. This will be the second–and final–race of the season at “The Monster Mile” and hopefully (in my mind at least) we don’t see mileage become a factor on Sunday. The last two races here have each had at least ten different leaders so we shouldn’t see one dominant driver this weekend.

During The Last Race At Dover…Jimmie Johnson sat on the pole for the race here in May and led 207 of the 400 laps but ended up finishing 9th. Matt Kenseth, who started 24th and led just 33 laps, took the checkered flag and was followed to the line by Mark Martin, who started 25th, and Marcos Ambrose. Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers rounded out the top 5. The only drivers who have finished in the top 10 in both races at Dover in 2010 as well as the race here in May are Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The AAA 400:
*Chase participants are marked in red*

1. Jimmie Johnson - Going into this weekend, I normally wouldn’t rank the #48 team number one because of how off they have been thus far in the 2011 Chase. However, Jimmie Johnson’s record in the last five races at Dover has been nothing short of amazing. He owns an average driver rating of 140.6, which, mind you, the maximum is 150.0, has visited victory lane three times and has led 1,192 of the 2,000 laps ran. “Five Time” also has won three poles in that span. His overall average finish here is 9.6 in nineteen starts and has just six finishes outside of the top 10. If he wants to seriously pursue a sixth-straight championship, Jimmie Johnson needs to at least have a top 5 on Sunday, which should be (somewhat) easily obtainable.

2. Carl Edwards - Believe it or not, Cousin Carl has the best average finish at Dover (7.6) of anyone in the series. In fourteen career starts here, Edwards has never finished worse than 18th–which came in his first start–and has completed all but 4 of the 5604 laps ran in those races. He has nine top 10s in the last ten races at “The Monster Mile” and Carl wound up in victory lane here in 2007 after leading 95 laps and starting 15th. As you may or may not know, Edwards has five straight top 10s in the last five Sprint Cup races, and I wouldn’t bet against him getting a sixth-straight on Sunday, and maybe even a second win at Dover.

3. Matt Kenseth - The most recent winner at Dover has started out this year’s Chase in a surprising way: he had a great car at Chicago but a penalty put Kenseth a lap down at the end, and he lucked into a 6th-place finish at Loudon, which is one of his worst tracks. Well, unless the peculiar-ness continues on Sunday, expect a good run from this #17 team at “The Monster Mile”. Matt has made twenty-five attempts at this 1.0-mile race track and has came away with sixteen top 10 finishes and only six finishes outside of the top 20, giving him an average finish of 12.4. As I said before, Kenseth won the race here in May, and he also won the June race in 2006 at this race track. In the last seven races at Dover, that #17 Ford has finished in the top 5 in six of them. I like this team’s odds of making it seven-for-eight.

4. Kyle Busch - Over the last five races at this track, “Rowdy” Busch owns the fourth-best average driver rating but just the tenth-best average finish. He’s a bit hit-or-miss here, but when Kyle is on his game, he’s an excellent choice in fantasy (as usual). In thirteen career starts, Busch has recorded eight top 10 finishes–which were all top 5s, by the way–but also four finishes outside of the top 20. He won here in 2008 and 2010 and has an average career finish of right around 14th at Dover.

5. Jeff Gordon - Just an FYI, in case you haven’t noticed, Jeff Gordon has seven finishes of 6th or better in the last nine Sprint Cup races. It’s never a good idea to go against a hot driver, and I wouldn’t recommend leaving the #24 Chevrolet off of your roster this weekend. In thirty-seven career starts at Dover, Gordon owns four wins and has recorded twenty-one top 10 finishes. He’s stumbled at this track recently (Gordon’s last top 10 here came four races ago) but I fully expect this team to turn their luck around here on Sunday. Jeff has led the most laps (2,231) at Dover than anyone in the circuit.

6. Tony Stewart - Before the Chase started, I probably would have bet my entire life savings plus whatever money I would earn in my future that “Smoke” wouldn’t win the first two races. I’m glad I didn’t make that mistake. Suddenly this team looks championship-caliber and in the last five Sprint Cup races they have finished in the top 10 four times. Stewart isn’t great at “The Monster Mile” but he won both races here in 2000 and never finished worse than 11th in his first twelve starts at this track. He has stumbled recently here, but Tony’s average finish at Dover is 12.5.

7. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” Harvick’s best career finish at this 1.0-mile race track has been 3rd, which came in 2006, but he hasn’t been terrible at Dover at all. Kevin’s average finish of 16.9 may scare people away, but in the last six races here, he has finished 12th or better in four of them and his worst finish has been 17th. He won’t challenge for the win on Sunday, but I think this #29 Chevrolet should be a solid pick for a top 10, though. Just don’t expect much more: in twenty-one Dover races, Harvick has just two top 5s.

8. Ryan Newman - I can’t give you many reasons not to pick “The Rocketman” this weekend, especially in allocation leagues, and it’s hard to go against him in Dover. Newman has four top 10s in the last six Sprint Cup races and had a great car last week in Loudon but finished 25th. Statistically this is Ryan’s best track on the circuit and he owns three victories in nineteen career starts at “The Monster Mile”. His average finish of 11th at Dover is good enough for third in the series behind Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. Newman hasn’t been great here recently, but he does have three top 10s in the last five Dover races. Unless he starts 25th or worse, “The Rocketman” should be a good pick on Sunday.

9. Kurt Busch - In the last five Dover races, the elder Busch brother has the fifth-best average driver rating along with an average finish of 9.4. Over his career here, though, luck hasn’t been on Kurt’s side as much at this 1.0-mile race track. In twenty-two starts here, Busch has just seven top 10s and a best finish of 4th, which came in 2006. His average finish of 18.7 isn’t stellar, but since 2009 Kurt’s only finishes outside of the top 10 have been 14th and 19th. As always, watch him in practice, but going into the weekend I see the “Double Deuce” as a top 10 car.

10. Brad Keselowski - BK’s crazy season just keeps on getting crazier (and nearly insane). Brad has two top 5 finishes in the two Chase races thus far, and if he has a little better car than he has had in recent weeks, Keselowski may be able to grab a third-straight without the help of a fuel mileage gamble. Brad finished 3rd here back in May, which, by the way, was the 12th race of the 2011 season and way before he went on his hot streak. It was also the race after BK got his first top 10 of the season, which was his 3rd-place effort in Charlotte. Keselowski’s other two starts at “The Monster Mile” have ended in 18th and 22nd-place finishes, and he has completed 99.7% of the laps ran. It’s hard to go against a guy that hasn’t finished worse than 12th in Sprint Cup action since mid-July.

11. Clint Bowyer - Is it just me, or does it seem like when a driver is about to announce switching to a new team, or has announced it, the team (overall) performs better? It might just be me, but despite not getting the finishes, Bowyer has had some pretty fast Chevrolets underneath him in the last few weeks. At Dover, Clint owns an average finish of 14.8 in eleven career starts and he ended up a career-best 6th here in May. He’s only led 33 laps on this 1.0-mile race track but Bowyer has completed 99.5% of the laps ran in the eleven races he has participated in.

12. A.J. Allmendinger - If you remember the last race at Dover, you probably remember just how awesome of a Ford A.J. Allmendinger was piloting that day. He started on the outside pole and had a legitimate shot to win but his engine blew just 166 laps into the race, which disappointed fantasy owners because many–myself included–took The Dinger in many leagues, hoping for the best. However, that run in May was no fluke: before that, A.J. knocked out three-straight finishes of 14th or better at “The Monster Mile” and two of them were top 10s, including his career best of 7th here in September 2009. He disappointed me mightily last week in Loudon, but they key to being successful in fantasy racing is having a short memory. Expect A.J. to have a good weekend in Dover.

13. Mark Martin - As with any other race this season, it’s going to be hit-or-miss with Mark Martin and the #5 team on Sunday, but going into the weekend I’m expecting a solid top 15 out of the old man. He has two runner-up finishes in the last four Dover races and hasn’t finished worse than 15th at Dover in the last five. This Sunday will mark Martin’s fifty-first career start at “The Monster Mile,” and in the previous fifty, he has recorded four wins and an average finish of 12.3.

14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior hasn’t had a top 10 at Dover since 2007, but they’ve had some great cars (so he says) in the first two Chase races, and with a little bit of luck, Earnhardt could find himself right back in the middle of the championship hunt. Earnhardt has an average finish of 17.8 in twenty-three career starts at Dover, and he even visited victory lane here back in 2001 after starting 3rd and leading 193 laps. He finished 12th here in May but that is only one of two finishes better than 20th in the last seven races at Dover for Junior. Watch the #88 in practice.

15. Greg Biffle - The Biff has two victories at “The Monster Mile” and owns an average finish of 11.4 in eighteen starts at this 1.0-mile race track. Lately, though, Biffle hasn’t been his normal self, with just one top 10 in the last four races here and two straight finishes of 19th. He cranked of six straight top 6 finishes here between 2006 and 2009, though, so Greg definitely knows how to tame this beast–to an extent.

Those To Avoid Entering The AAA 400:

Marcos Ambrose - Marcos’ 3rd-place effort here in May is impressing, but that’s the only bright spot on his resume at Dover International Speedway. Ambrose has an average finish of 24.4 when you take out that run and his best finish over the last month has been 19th. I like Marcos as a long shot on short tracks, but unless you really need to make up some major ground in your fantasy league I wouldn’t even think about picking the #9 Ford this weekend.

Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers - I said last week that I have written off the Red Bull teams for the rest of the season, and although they didn’t end up too bad in New Hampshire, I doubt lightning will strike twice for these teams this weekend. Kahne has three top 10s in fifteen career starts while Vickers has two in thirteen. The average finish of these two is 24th and 20th, respectively.

Denny Hamlin - Did this team put so much effort (three straight top 10s) into getting in the Chase that they are completely spent now that the ten-race playoff has started? It sure seems like it. Hamlin followed up his 31st-place effort at Chicago with a 29th-place finish at New Hampshire and the series is visiting a track this week that Denny has had some trouble with in the past: in eleven career starts at “The Monster Mile,” Hamlin has just two top 5s and an average finish of 20.9. This is his second-worst track on the circuit behind Daytona.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: AAA 400 at Dover Downs

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	3	13.34
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	3	13.45
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	3	13.10
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	25	13.41
Eric McClung	KFFL	Matt Kenseth	19	13.72
Eric McGuire	free agent	Matt Kenseth	19	15.24
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	2	11.86
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	19	15.79
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	27.66
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	11.52
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	3	12.07
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	14.48
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.28
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brad Keselowski	20	11.48
James Jones	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	3	11.97
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.28
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Carl Edwards	3	9.28
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	6	12.07
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Matt Kenseth	5	14.17

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	21	11.59
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Greg Biffle	27	15.93
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	27	17.93
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	22	15.93
Eric McClung	KFFL	Martin Truex Jr	30	16.24
Eric McGuire	free agent	Greg Biffle	27	15.31
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Greg Biffle	27	16.00
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	8	14.03
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	28.07
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	David Ragan	21	20.83
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Greg Biffle	27	17.52
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	27	11.83
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	7	14.83
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	19	15.24
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	4	13.45
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	27	13.31
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Greg Biffle	27	14.55
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Martin Truex Jr	30	16.83
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	7	14.62

Scouting Report: AAA 400

How to make an informed pick for the Dover AAA 400:

1) Look back at recent Dover races, it matters. Last year five drivers finished in the top ten in both Dover races. Also in recent Dover races you’ll find that some drivers know how to get around the 1.0 mile concrete track and some don’t.

2) Practice is extremely important at Dover. In recent weeks I’ve downplayed the importance of practice but not this week. Dover is a symmetrical track and average practice speeds will weed out the contenders from the pretenders.

3) Qualifying counts at Dover. Fifty of the eighty-three races run at the Monster Mile have been won from a top five starting position (60%). Thirteen of them have been won from the pole. Only eighteen races have been won from a starting position outside the top ten.

4) Don’t get to carried away studying similar tracks this week. Dover is twice as big as Bristol and I feel fantasy racers can’t really digest Darlington info the best because I feel only one set of turns is similar to Dover so why complicate things. In my AAA 400 Fantasy Preview I mention these tracks loosely but studying Dover exclusively is the best way to go.

Drivers to watch in the Dover AAA 400:

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has won three out of the last five races at Dover. Another amazing stat is that in these five races he’s led 1,192 laps and the least amount of laps he’s led in a race was 191 (nearly half the race). Johnson has six wins at Dover and a 10th place average finish. If Johnson doesn’t win or get a top five in the AAA 400 then his championship hopes are over.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth won at Dover in May and he’s finished in the top five in nearly half his starts at the Monster Mile. Since 2008 Kenseth has only finished lower than 4th once. Matt Kenseth is a great race manager who knows how to save his car for the end of races. In 1998 Kenseth made his Sprint Cup debut in Bill Elliotts car and finished 6th.

Carl Edwards – Edwards will be as good of a pick as they come Sunday in the AAA 400. Edwards only has one Dover win but since the 2006 Chase race he’s only finished outside the top ten once and it was an 11th place finish. His average finish in this ten race time span is 4.9.

Tony Stewart – Stewart once owned Dover but his success has been limited since 2005. Before 2005 he had a worst finish of 11th and all of his other finishes were better than 7th. Times have changed though and Stewart only has one top five, and four top tens in the last half decade. Momentum matters and going 3 for 3 could happen.

Kyle Busch – Busch is a two time Monster Mile winner who won the spring 2010 race. Last year in the Dover Chase race he finished sixth and led 46 laps. One area of concern is that in three out of the last five Dover Chase races he’s finished 31st or worse. His aggressive driving style has served him well at Dover.

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Dover Pre Race Loop Data Book
• Dover 5 Year Driver Averages
• Dover Drivers Average Running Positions
• Dover Driver Ratings
• Dover Entry List
• Dover Schedule Of Events

VegasInsider.com odds to win the AAA 400:

• Jimmie Johnson 4/1
• Kyle Busch 5/1
• Tony Stewart 6/1
• Jeff Gordon 7/1
• Carl Edwards 8/1
• Kevin Harvick 10/1
• Denny Hamlin 10/1
• Matt Kenseth 14/1
• Brad Keselowski 14/1
• Kurt Busch 15/1

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com driver momentum over the last five races:

1. Brad Keselowski
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Tony Stewart
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Kurt Busch
7. Jimmie Johnson
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Ryan Newman
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: FedEx 400 for Autism Speaks at Dover Downs

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Greg Biffle	19	9.64
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Mark Martin	2	11.18
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Denny Hamlin	16	13.91
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	11	14.91
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jeff Gordon	17	11.91
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jeff Burton	11	10.09
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	A J Allmendinger	37	15.64
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	19	11.73
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Mark Martin	2	11.73
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	27	21.18
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jeff Gordon	17	17.27
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	16	10.91
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	36	11.82
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	16	14.18
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	17	12.27
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jeff Burton	11	8.82
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jeff Gordon	17	15.55
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	36	18.91
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kasey Kahne	36	14.09

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: FedEx 400 for Autism Speaks at Dover

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	7	12.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	9	12.36
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	7	13.45
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	12	12.18
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	9	11.73
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	9	15.09
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	7	11.36
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	7	14.27
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	9	8.82
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	8	11.91
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	7	11.18
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	9	9.00
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	9	12.64
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	4	12.18
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	9	8.18
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	9	9.36
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	9	8.36
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	7	9.91
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Carl Edwards	7	10.82

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Dover - FedEx 400

This week the Sprint Cup Series visits Dover International Speedway for the FedEx 400. This will be the first of two races this season at this 1.0-mile racetrack, with the other happening in October. Seven current drivers have at least two wins at Dover, so for the second week in a row we might see a first time winner (or so we hope). 400 laps are set to be run on Sunday afternoon, with the green flag set to drop around 1:45 p.m. eastern time. Two practices will be held on Friday morning/afternoon and qualifying is set to start around noon on Saturday–which will be the final time the cars are on the track before raceday.

During The Last Race At Dover…Jimmie Johnson started from the pole and led 191 laps before winning his sixth (and ultimately final) win of the 2010 season. Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch, and Carl Edwards rounded out the top five. In the spring race, Johnson and Kyle Busch led over 95% of the laps, and the latter went on to take the checkered flag by the end of the race. JJ wound up 15th that day because of a late pit road speeding penalty, while Jeff Burton, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, and David Reutimann all scored top fives that day, along with Busch. The only drivers to finish in the top ten in both Dover races last season were: Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton, Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, and Denny Hamlin.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The FedEx 400:

1. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl won here in 2007, and believe it or not, this is statistically his third-best track. He has made thirteen starts at “The Monster Mile” and has the best average finish of anyone in the series with 7.7. Edwards has posted at least a top-ten finish in nine of the last eleven races here and his worst effort in his career here has been 18th–which was his first start here. With the way his season is going, I fully expect the #99 Ford to challenge for the win on Sunday.

2. Jimmie Johnson - “Five Time” would be ranked number one this week, but I still don’t think that he’s running as well as normal. I know he’s second in points, but we’re not seeing the consistently strong #48 Chevy week in and week out, even though he still somehow manages to get the good finishes. His average driver rating over the past four races here has been 142.9–which is absolutely incredible–and he has recorded three wins in those four races. Jimmie’s average finish at Dover is 9.7 and he has six total wins here.

3. Ryan Newman - Believe it or not, this is statistically Newman’s best track on the circuit. He has 18 starts at Dover and has visited victory lane three times, although the most recent was in 2004. After his string of three sub-par races, “The Rocketman” notched another top five for the season last week in Darlington, and I full expect him to continue running strong this weekend. His average career finish at Dover is 10.3.

4. Kyle Busch - Let’s hope “Rowdy” and Kevin Harvick can stay away from each other this week–especially if you have Kyle on your fantasy roster. He’s a bit hit-or-miss here, with six top five finishes (and four outside of the top twenty) in his twelve starts at “The Monster Mile”, but I think he will “hit” this weekend. Busch has two wins at this track, so it’s not like he doesn’t know how to get around this place.

5. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has hit rough patch recently, with a best finish of 21st since his win at Texas, but I think he will “reverse the curse” this weekend in Dover. He finished 18th here last fall (he cut a tire while running near the top ten), but before that he had a streak of five straight top five finishes at “The Monster Mile”. Kenseth won here in 2006 and has averaged a finish of around 13th in his 24 starts here.

6. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is finally getting his season turned around, getting two of his three top 10s in his past two starts. At Dover, Denny hasn’t been great, but he recorded top 10s in both races last season and I like the little momentum that he is building lately. Like his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Kyle Busch, Hamlin is a bit hit-or-miss here, with half of his starts ending in finishes outside of the top twenty. Proceed with caution if you pick the #11 Toyota this weekend.

7. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” is on a streak of two top 10s this season, and I think he will easily make it three after this weekend. He’s not as good as his teammate (Ryan Newman) is at Dover, but Tony isn’t terrible. He has three top 10s in his past four starts here and owns a career average finish of 11.8, which includes two wins. It’s never a good idea to go against Steward when he gets a little momentum.

8. Greg Biffle - In the last four races of this season, “The Biff” has three top 10s and a worst finish of just 15th. In the last four races at Dover, Biffle has two top 10s and a worst finish of 19th. He’s won here twice (in 2005 and 2008) and has posted a top ten finish in eight of his last ten starts at “The Monster Mile”. Look for Biffle to make it nine of his last eleven after this weekend.

9. Mark Martin - I think this may prove to be too high of a ranking for Mark Martin, but I just have a hunch about him this week. He’s finished outside of the top 20 just once this season, and I don’t think he will make that twice on Sunday. Martin finished 12th and 15th at Dover last season, but in 2009 he recorded top 10s in both races (including a 2nd-place effort in the fall race). Make sure you check out what I have to say in my Predictions article before locking him into your roster this weekend.

10. Jeff Burton - Each week I have said that Burton won’t get his first top ten of the season…but I think this is the week! He finished 2nd in both Dover races during the 2010 season and hasn’t finished worse than 16th since 2004. Burton won here in 2006, and while I don’t think he will get his second win at this track this weekend, I do believe that a top ten is likely.

11. Kurt Busch - Kurt Busch has just one top ten in his past six races this season, but he could grab another this season. I have him ranked lower than some others will, though, simply because of how bad he has been running recently. It’s like a weekly comedy routine reading all of his comments during the race on Twitter. The elder Busch brother has three top 5s in his past four starts at Dover, but he’s never won here. Will he finally turn things around this weekend?

12. Kevin Harvick - It’s hard to believe that “Happy” isn’t the first Richard Childress Racing car ranked this week, but he’s not that stellar at Dover. He finished 7th here last spring, but that has been just one of his two top 10s here in the last nine races. Harvick hasn’t finished worst than 17th in his last five starts at Dover, though, and I don’t think streak will end this weekend.

13. Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex actually didn’t have a huge problem last week! He got his second top ten of the season in Darlington, but do you think he can make it two in a row? It’s possible–he at Dover in 2007–but I don’t think he will. Truex has just one top 20 in his past four starts at this track, and that was a 12th last season. His career average finish here is 16.8.

14. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has finished 8th at “The Monster Mile” three times in his career, but he’s more likely to finish around 14th. His past five races here have ended with finishes of: 25th, 17th, 15th, and 11th. With Clint’s five-race top ten streak coming to an end last week (although it shouldn’t have), he should come out to prove that he can rebound, though, so this ranking may prove to be too low. Only time will tell.

15. Jeff Gordon - If you think Gordon is running up to potential this season, you are wrong. I know he won at Phoenix, but he’s usually not getting the finishes he deserves at his good tracks. This is why I have Jeff ranked so low this week. He finished 11th in both Dover races last season, and while he has finished outside of the top twelve just once in his past ten starts here, I think Gordon will have a hard time cracking the top ten this week. A top fifteen will be more likely for the #24 Chevrolet.

Underdogs Entering The FedEx 400:

Paul Menard - Now that Menard has fallen back down to earth, he’s back as an underdog. Like most tracks, he has been consistently average at Dover–with 71% of his finishes between 19th and 22nd–but he finished 7th here last fall after starting 9th. I don’t think he will grab another top ten, but a top fifteen is within reach.

David Reutimann - Reutty won the pole here in 2009 and recorded his first top five at this track in last season’s spring race. I don’t think he will get his first top ten of the season this weekend unless he gambles at the end, though.

David Ragan - Ragan was a little disappointing for me last week, but I still like how he is running this season. His best finish at Dover has been only 14th, but he’s been consistent here (his last four finishes have been 24th, 26th, 24th, 24th). It seems like the weeks you don’t expect the #6 to be strong are the ones that he is, so this may be the week.

A.J. Allmendinger - I seriously think The ‘Dinger could crack the top ten in points after this weekend. He has the seventh-best average driver rating at Dover over the past four races and has finishes of 29th, 7th, 14th, and 10th here since joining Richard Petty Motorsports. If he has a strong car like he has many times this season, expect Allmendinger to challenge for a top fifteen (and possibly a top ten).

Those To Avoid Entering The FedEx 400:

Brian Vickers - Vickers has just been top-ten good this season, or absolutely terrible, and this isn’t the week to take a chance with him on your fantasy roster. He has one top ten at Dover in twelve career starts, and that came back in 2005.

Marcos Ambrose - I typically like Marcos on tracks that are one-mile or less, but this week is the exception. His average finish at Dover is right around 24th and his best came in 2009 when he finished 14th. There are much better options this week than Ambrose.

Juan Montoya - Montoya has hit a cold spell this season, with a best finish of 23rd in the past three races, and although he finished 4th at Dover in 2009, that is his only top five at this track (and just his second top ten). If he qualifies in the top five, he could score a good run, but he’s a little too risky for me this weekend. I would avoid the #42.

Brad Keselowski - I’m not going to lie, last week’s top five finish by BK was a complete fluke. The only reason he got that 3rd-place was because he stayed out during the final pit stop. At Dover, he has made two starts, with 18th and 22nd-place runs to show for it. His driver ratings during those races, though, suggest to me that he lucked into those as well.

I will be back to posting my weekly Practice Breakdown and Post-Qualifying Predictions over on ifantasyrace.com, so be sure to check those out. The Sprint Cup All-Star weekend happens after Dover, so that will be an off-week for my Preview article. After that, though, it will return when the boys head to Charlotte for some Sunday night racing on May 29th.

Scouting Report: Dover FedEx 400

How to make an informed fantasy pick for the 2011 Dover FedEx 400:

1) Look back at recent Dover races, it matters. Last year five drivers finished in the top ten in both Dover races. Also in recent Dover races you’ll find that some drivers know how to get around the 1.0 mile concrete track and some don’t.

2) Practice is extremely important at Dover. In recent weeks I’ve downplayed the importance of practice but not this week. Dover is a symmetrical track and average practice speeds will weed out the contenders from the pretenders.

3) Qualifying counts at Dover. Fifty of the eighty-two races run at the Monster Mile have been won from a top five starting position (61%). Thirteen of them have been won from the pole. Only seventeen races have been won from a starting position outside the top ten.

4) Don’t get to carried away studying similar tracks this week. Dover is twice as big as Bristol and I feel fantasy racers can’t really digest Darlington info the best because I feel only one set of turns is similar to Dover so why complicate things.

The Big Three Drivers To Watch:

1) Jimmie Johnson is easily the favorite heading into Dover. He’s won three out of the last four races and only a pit road speeding penalty kept him from being 4 for 4. Johnson has won a third of his races at Dover and last year he led 416 laps.

2) Carl Edwards - Edwards struggled at Dover early in his career but once he figured it out he hasn’t looked back. Since 2006 Edwards hasn’t finished lower than 11th and his average finish in this time span is 4.66.

3) Kyle Busch - Sure Kevin Harvick’s gonna get him back in time but Dover’s to soon to worry about that. Entering this race Kyle Busch is the defending champion. Last year he capitalized on a Jimmie Johnson mistake and won his second career race at the Monster Mile. Kyle Busch has finished in the top ten in half his races at Dover.

Others To Watch:

Matt Kenseth - Previous winner who’s finished in the top ten in every race but two since 2006.

Greg Biffle - Two time winner and if you’re a loop data fan he has the second best driver rating (110.1), best average finish in the last twelve (6.7) and the best average running position (8.0).

Jeff Burton - Last year Jeff Burton finished second in both Dover races. He’s had his struggles this year but Dover has been like medicine to him before. In 2006 he beat Matt Kenseth to the finish line and snapped a long losing streak. Could it happen again?

Ryan Newman - He’s had a lot of success at Dover in his career but for the most part its front loaded. Look for him to get a top ten.

AJ Allmendinger -In the last three Dover races AJ has finished 10th, 14th and 7th. Last fall he led 143 laps but pit road problems hurt him greatly.

Tony Stewart - Stewart’s finished in the top eleven in four out of the last five Dover races. Both of his wins at the Monster Mile were back in 2000.

TheSpread.com Odds To Win:

Jimmie Johnson 5/1, Kyle Busch 5/1, Carl Edwards 8/1, Denny Hamlin 8/1, Tony Stewart 12/1, Kevin Harvick 12/1, Jeff Gordon 12/1, Kurt Busch 15/1, Clint Bowyer 20/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr 20/1, Matt Kenseth 20/1, Greg Biffle 20/1

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Carl Edwards	5	16.32
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Greg Biffle	19	11.54
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kyle Busch	6	10.18
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Kyle Busch	6	12.86
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	1	14.32
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kyle Busch	6	11.71
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Matt Kenseth	18	10.36
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	6	13.82
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kyle Busch	6	14.86
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	5	11.04
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	6	10.29
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	19	16.04
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Matt Kenseth	18	13.43
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	6	12.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	6	13.86
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	5	12.25
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Kyle Busch	6	12.57
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	6	11.79
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Denny Hamlin	9	15.93

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: AAA 400 from Dover Downs

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	3	14.39
James Jones	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	8	12.61
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Ryan Newman	8	20.00
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.50
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	12	15.18
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Mark MartinJamie McMurray	1213	14.1413.93
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	28	14.57
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.18
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	David Reutimann	35	13.14
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jamie McMurray	13	12.36
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	David Reutimann	35	14.64
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	David Reutimann	35	14.43
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	David Reutimann	35	14.46
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	8	18.21
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	David Reutimann	35	12.86
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Juan Pablo Montoya	14	15.14
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	34	19.61
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Ryan Newman	8	11.61

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