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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2011 Irwin Tools Night Race

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	20	10.67
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Greg Biffle	31	14.75
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	31	16.46
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	15	14.92
Eric McClung	KFFL	Greg Biffle	31	15.38
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	7	14.54
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Greg Biffle	31	14.96
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	11	13.58
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	24.75
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Marcos Ambrose	10	21.58
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	38	17.33
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	7	11.08
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	38	15.29
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	7	15.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	7	14.04
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	31	11.54
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Greg Biffle	31	14.79
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	11	16.50
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Greg Biffle	31	14.25

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Bristol Night Race

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Kyle Busch	14	14.33
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kyle Busch	14	14.75
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kurt Busch	17	13.46
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	28	11.75
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kyle Busch	14	13.42
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kyle Busch	14	15.92
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kyle Busch	14	13.46
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	9	15.17
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	24.25
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	14	12.96
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	14	12.42
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	4	14.92
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	4	11.79
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	14	11.58
James Jones	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	9	12.08
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Kyle Busch	14	13.29
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	4	9.54
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	14	11.96
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kyle Busch	14	14.83

Scouting Report: Bristol

Five Drivers to watch at Bristol:

Kyle Busch – There’s not a better pick you can make this week for the Irwin Tools Night Race then Kyle Busch. He’s won four out of the last five races at Bristol and in the COT era he’s won more than half the races (5/9). In the last five races here his average finish is 3rd, he’s led 861 laps, and he has an impressive 125.16 driver rating.

Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is the only driver not named Kyle Busch who has won here recently. In the last five races at Bristol there’s no question Jimmie Johnson is the clear second fiddle driver to Kyle Busch. Last season he finished 35th but that was due to a wreck with Montoya. His other finishes in the last five races are 3rd, 8th, 1st, and 3rd. Also in the last five races Johnson has led +84 laps every race for a grand total of 618.

Matt Kenseth – I’ve liked Matt Kenseth at Bristol for a long time. He’s won here multiple times and Roush cars have been extremely strong here in recent races. In the last four Bristol races he’s finished 10th, 5th, 10th and 4th. Another good thing about Matt Kenseth is that no one’s mad at him.

Carl Edwards – Edwards has won the Bristol night race twice. In his most recent win he wasn’t afraid to nudge Kyle out of the lead. In the spring race this year he finished second and led 18 laps. He never ran lower than 13th and his average running position was 5th.

Kurt Busch – Before Kyle Busch started dominating Bristol Kurt Busch was the king here. He’s a five time Bristol winner but his most recent win was back in 2006 (before track reconfiguration and the COT). He’s still a very attractive fantasy pick for Bristol though. In the last four races he’s finished 7th, 9th, 3rd and 7th. In the spring 2010 race he led 278 laps. He should’ve won but in a late restart he was in the slow lane and Jimmie Johnson had his lucky horseshoe.

To see the rest of my rankings check out my Bristol Fantasy Preview

How to make an informed fantasy pick at Bristol

1) Focus on studying the races dating back to the summer 2007 night race. That was the first race on the reconfigured Bristol Motor Speedway. Prior stats before that date are somewhat irrelevant because the old Bristol and the new Bristol race much differently.

2) Since Bristol is a “skill” track studying average finishes is a quick short cut to having a successful fantasy week. Average finishes at skill tracks hold their value.

3) Happy Hour at Bristol will be important. Bristol isn’t a crash up derby anymore and I expect to see green flag pit stops.

4) Qualifying doesn’t hold the value it used to at Bristol. In Kyle Busch’s four most recent wins he never started better than 12th. Bristol in many ways now is a mini intermediate track because drivers can simply change lanes and get around another driver.

5) Drivers who’ve had lots of negative momentum lately should be avoided as a safety precaution. As I said this track isn’t a crash up derby anymore but it’s certainly no place for a driver to expect his negative fortunes to turn around.

VegasInsider.com Bristol Odds:

Kyle Busch 7/2, Jimmie Johnson 4/1, Carl Edwards 6/1, Denny Hamlin 9/1, Kevin Harvick 10/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Greg Biffle 10/1, Matt Kenseth 12/1, Jeff Gordon 14/1, Kurt Busch 14/1

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

Pre Race Loop Data Book, Drivers stats over the last five races at Bristol, Past Race Winners, Past Pole Winners

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver momentum over the last five races:

1)Ryan Newman 2)Jeff Gordon 3)Jimmie Johnson 4)Brad Keselowski 5)Kyle Busch 6)Tony Stewart 7)Matt Kenseth 8)Clint Bowyer 9)Martin Truex Jr. 10)Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Bristol 2 - Irwin Tools Night Race

One of the most exciting races of this NASCAR season will take place this Saturday evening at Bristol Motor Speedway as the drivers will gear up for (at least) 500 laps under the lights on this half-mile race track. Races at “The Bull Ring” have recently ended with some surprising faces up front–Paul Menard, David Reutimann, and Marcos Ambrose come to mind–so this may be the week to put some underdogs on your rosters and take a chance. With this track, there is always a chance to go past the scheduled distance, but believe it or not, the last four races haven’t gone past the 500 laps. Your fantasy roster could be ruined in one lap if a driver gets pissed off and decides to take out someone, so it’s pretty difficult to predict these Bristol races. However, I’ll still try my best, so be sure to check out my post-qualifying predictions over at www.ifantasyrace.com.

During The Last Race At Bristol…In March, Kyle Busch got the sweep of the weekend and won his second race in a row on this half-mile track (and fourth of the last five) after leading 153 of the 500 laps ran. Pole-sitter Carl Edwards led only 18 laps but followed “Rowdy” to the line, with Jimmie Johnson, who led the most laps that day with 164, coming home 3rd. Matt Kenseth and Paul Menard rounded out the top five. You can view the full results of that race by clicking here.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Irwin Tools Night Race:

1. Kyle Busch - You’ll be hard pressed to find any fantasy preview this week that goes against “Rowdy” Busch. He’s coming off his fourth win of the season and has won four of the last five races held at Bristol, leading over 35% of the laps ran during that span. His average finish here is 8.7, and that is the best in the series. Kyle’s first two starts at the fastest half-mile in the world gave him finishes of 28th and 33rd, but in the eleven races here since then, he has just one finish outside of the top 10. His 1,370 laps led at Bristol Motor Speedway is second all-time behind Jeff Gordon.

2. Jimmie Johnson - He didn’t get the win last weekend in Michigan, but you have to believe that this team is going to get their second of the season sometime soon. At Bristol, Johnson isn’t dominant, but he does have ten top 10s in nineteen starts and win here last season. In the last five races at this track, “Five Time” has led a total of 618 laps with at least 84 led in each race. Jimmie had the best driver rating–and led the most laps–here in March and has four top 10s in the last five Bristol races.

3. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is his normal self when the series make a stop at Bristol: consistent. In twenty three career starts, Matt has visited victory lane twice and notched fifteen top 10 finishes while compiling an average finish of 12.2. Even more impressive is that he has finishes outside of the top 15 just five times. Kenseth is on a streak of four straight top 10s at the world’s fastest half-mile and unless he gets wrecked on Saturday night, I expect him to make it five straight once the checkered flag waves.

4. Jeff Gordon - One main thing I’m focusing on this weekend is momentum, and Jeff Gordon has had awesome race cars for the last two months. He hasn’t finished worse than 13th since Michigan in mid-June and I don’t see that changing this weekend at Bristol. Gordon has just one top ten in the last five races at this half-mile track but he has won here five times and has led more laps than anyone here (by over 1,000 laps). When you see that Jeff has finished 14th, 11th, and 14th in the last three races here, it may make you shy away from him, but don’t say I didn’t warn you when that #24 Chevrolet is challenging for the win Saturday night under the lights.

5. Kurt Busch - From 2002 through 2004, Kurt was doing the exact same thing that his brother is accomplishing now, taking four checkered flags in five races and leading a whole bunch of laps (490 to be exact). He struggled a little bit after his dominance, but lately the elder Busch brother has been on top of his game once again: in the last eight races at “The Bull Ring,” Kurt five top 10s and hasn’t finished worse than 15th. He’s on a streak of four-straight top 10s here right now and I fully expect him to make it five-straight once it’s all said and done on Saturday.

6. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” wasn’t great here early in his career but he seems to have gotten the hang of this place lately. In the last six Bristol races, Newman has posted five top 10s and a worst finish of just 16th. His average driver rating of 98.1 over the past five races here is also good enough for fifth-best in the series. However, don’t expect much more than a top 10 from Ryan on Saturday night: he has eleven top 10s at this half-mile track but only one of them have been a top 5. This team has to feel pretty good about their Chase chances right now but a mess-up this weekend could hurt them badly.

7. Brad Keselowski - This team is running on a championship-caliber level right now, and with Keselowski posting career-best finishes (top fives at that) in the last two weeks, I could easily see that happening again on Saturday night. In his rookie start here, Brad started 36th but ended up leading 26 laps and finishing a respectable 13th, which is the best finish he has been able to muster in three career starts here. Keselowski’s last two finishes here have been 18th and 19th but I see him continuing this hot streak he is on and posting a solid top ten once these 500 laps are ran.

8. Greg Biffle - The Biff is good at Bristol but I’m not convinced that this team can finish out a race and get the good finish they deserve. His average finish of 10.7 is second-best in the series believe it or not, and while he hasn’t visited victory lane in “Thunder Valley” yet, Biffle does have eleven top 10s to his name here. He’s on a streak of four-straight top 10s at Bristol and has finished in the top 11 in eight of his last nine starts at this half-mile race track. Greg is sixth in terms of average driver rating over the past five races at this track.

9. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl has been very consistent here, with eleven straight finishes of 16th or better (which includes six top 10s and two wins). However, I can’t look past the fact that this team is really starting to struggle. After last week’s engine woes–in Michigan of all places!–Edwards now has just one top 10 in the last five Sprint Cup races. Bristol would be the perfect place for him to turn his luck around, as Edwards finished runner-up to Kyle Busch in March–but if he struggles in qualifying and practice, expect Carl to make it onto my “Avoid” list for the second week in a row when my post-qualifying predictions go up on Friday.

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Overall, Bristol has been good for Earnhardt, Jr., and a good run on Saturday night could solidify his spot in the Chase this year. Even though Little E struggled mightily in 2009 and 2010, he was still able to post two top 10s in four races at Bristol and never finished worse than 14th during that span. He has one win here, which came back in 2004, and has the third-best average finish at Bristol (11.5) of anyone in the series. Statistically this is Junior’s best track and he has finished outside of the top 20 just three times in twenty-three career starts at “The Bull Ring”.

11. Mark Martin - Martin has really flew under my radar for the past month or so, as I pretty much wrote him off after being so unreliable for the first half of the season, but Mark has three finishes of 13th or better in the last four Sprint Cup races and I think he has a great chance of making it four in the last five once the race is over on Saturday night. He has visited victory lane two times in his forty-five career starts at the world’s fastest half-mile and has twenty-three top 10s to his name. If this team is starting to turn a corner like some people think they are, Martin could notch is twenty-fourth top 10 in the Irwin Tools Night Race this weekend.

12. Kevin Harvick - Earlier in this preview I noted how Carl Edwards has been struggling recently. Another driver that seems to be in a slump is Kevin Harvick. He has just one top 10 in the last six Sprint Cup races, and while he is still a pretty solid driver at Bristol, I’m still going to be a little leery putting him on my rosters this weekend. Harvick finished 6th here in March but before that his last top 10 at this track came back in 2008, and as of right now I don’t see “Happy” posting his thirteenth career top 10 at Bristol on Saturday after his twenty-second career start here.

13. Kasey Kahne - Kasey Kahne is pretty hit-or-miss when it comes to Bristol, so–for me anyway–it’s going to be a coin flip whether or not he’s going to make my preliminary rosters this weekend. In fifteen starts at “The Bull Ring,” Kahne has posted six top 10s but he has ended up outside of the top 20 six times as well. He finished 9th here in March during his first start for Red Bull Racing, which also makes it two top 10s in a row for Kasey here, but if he starts worse than 15th or so, I’d pass on KK this Sunday.

14. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” said it himself that this team isn’t Chase-caliber, but I just don’t see them missing the Chase this season. If he gets in a wreck on Saturday, though, my mind will probably change. At Bristol, Steward has led a very impressive 1,354 laps in his career, but lately he has really struggled: in the last five events at this track, Tony has a second-place effort to his credit, but all four other finishes have been 17th, 19th, 27th, and 33rd. I think he’ll be fighting hard to prove that this team can win a championship, but I don’t see Stewart being better than a teens driver this weekend.

15. Juan Montoya - If JPM can control his emotions for the entire 500 laps on Saturday, he has a chance to get a solid top 10 finish. However, this is Montoya, so chances are he’s going to ruin his night (or at least someone else’s) if they get in his way. In the last five races at the world’s fastest half-mile, Montoya has the eighth-best average driver rating but only two top 10s and three finishes outside of the top 20. Those two top 10s (9th and 7th) are also his only finishes there in his nine career starts as well.

Just Outside The Top Fifteen Entering The Irwin Tools Night Race:

16. David Reutimann - Believe it or not, Reutimann has the tenth-best average driver rating over the past five races at Bristol. His best finish here came in this race last season when he finished runner-up to Kyle Busch after starting 5th and leading 25 laps. If he starts outside of the top ten, I would probably pass on Reutty this weekend, but if he looks good in practice and has a good starting spot, you may just want to take a chance on him.

17. Marcos Ambrose - I really like giving Ambrose a shot on the short tracks where brake issues can happen just because of his road course talents and his ability to conserve his breaks to be strong late in the race. Marcos’ first start at “The Bull Ring” yielded him a solid 10th-place finish and he followed that up with a 3rd-place effort in the 2009 night race. Since then, though, Ambrose’s best finish here has been 15th, which came earlier this season.

18. Denny Hamlin - As you could probably tell by now, I’m looking at recent driver performance a lot this weekend. Since his win at Michigan, Hamlin has one top 10 in the last eight Sprint Cup races and an average finish of 22.1, which is terrible timing for a team trying to make it into the Chase. A couple more sub-30s finishes and someone like Greg Biffle or Clint Bowyer getting a win, and suddenly Hamlin will be the odd man out. At Bristol, Denny posted top 10s in each race during the 2008 and 2009 seasons but since then he has posted finishes of 19th, 34th, and 33rd here. You won’t see the #11 on my rosters this weekend.

19. Jeff Burton - Burton has been running pretty well for the last month or so–for him this season anyway–and recorded his first top 10 of the season at Watkins Glen and has finishes of 16th, 17th, and 17th to go along with that in the last five Sprint Cup races. In the last four Bristol races, Burton has three finishes between 16th and 20th in addition to a 10th-place finish in March 2010, but I think the former is more likely to happen on Saturday night.

20. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer better hope to prove me wrong if he wants to make the Chase this season. He’s 24 points out of the top ten, and this team only has three top 5s this season, so I don’t see Bowyer stealing a win here soon to make it in the wildcard spot. In eleven Bristol starts, Clint has five top 10s to his name, but he also has five finishes outside of the top 20. What worries me about him putting together a good run on Saturday is that he has just one top 20 in his last four starts here. If he impresses me on Friday, this ranking may change.

Those To Avoid Entering The Irwin Tools Night Race:

Joey Logano - When you look at Joey’s qualifying efforts here, you might think he could potentially be a good pick. However, he has never finished on the lead lap in his five starts at Bristol and Logano’s average finish here of 28th is worse than these drivers, just to name a few: Brendan Gaughan, Johnny Sauter, and Scott Speed.

Martin Truex, Jr. - For the first time in his career, Truex led laps–63 to be exact–at Bristol earlier this season after starting 8th. However, he ended up finishing 17th, which means Martin still has yet to record a top 10 finish in eleven starts at “The Bull Ring”. Could that change this weekend? The race in March was his best-ran race at this track (in terms of drive rating), so it’s certainly possible, but don’t be surprised if he disappoints you once it’s all said and done.

Brian Vickers - You only have to know one number when it comes to Brian Vickers at Bristol: zero. That’s how many top 10s he has recorded in thirteen starts at this track, and with the way his season is going (Bobby Labonte almost has more points than him) I don’t see that changing this weekend. At best, Vickers will be a teens driver on Saturday, and you don’t win fantasy championships by picking those drivers.

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Jeff Byrd 500 Presented by Food City

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Kyle Busch	1	8.75
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Joey Logano	23	19.25
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	8	14.00
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	6	16.00
Eric McClung	KFFL	Matt Kenseth	4	10.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kyle Busch	1	9.50
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	14	14.50
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	8.50
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kyle Busch	1	10.25
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	21	23.75
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jeff Gordon	14	20.25
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	8.00
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	6.50
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	1	10.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	9.75
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Kyle Busch	1	8.50
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Kyle Busch	1	11.00
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Clint Bowyer	35	25.50
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jeff Burton	20	12.25

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Jeff Byrd 500 at Bristol

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	2	20.25
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kyle Busch	1	23.75
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kyle Busch	1	21.75
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	10	22.25
Eric McClung	KFFL	Ryan Newman	10	22.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr	11	29.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kyle Busch	1	17.00
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	33	27.00
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Carl Edwards	2	14.50
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	18.50
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	1	16.50
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	7	13.25
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	3	21.00
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	2	15.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	7	3.75
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Carl Edwards	2	12.00
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Carl Edwards	2	12.00
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	1	18.00
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kurt Busch	7	22.50

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Bristol - Jeff Byrd 500

Now that the off-weekend has passed, the Sprint Cup Series will have points-paying races for the next two months straight. In honor of the passing of Bristol Motor Speedway’s long-time president and general manager last October, the event at “The Bullring” this weekend will be named the Jeff Byrd 500 Presented by Food City. Five-hundred laps are set to be run on this 0.533-mile racetrack, and there should be very few that aren’t exciting. Only one of the past five races here have gone past the scheduled distance.

During The Last Race At Bristol…Kyle Busch started 19th but quickly made his way to the front and wound up leading 282 laps before taking the checkered flag–his fourth win at this track. To the surprise of many, David Reutimann backed up his top five qualifying effort with a 2nd-place finish, while Jamie McMurray, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne rounded out the top five. The spring race at Bristol saw Jimmie Johnson get the win, even though Kurt Busch led the most laps that day (278).

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…This is the week to take an underdog or two, as it seems one of them always finds their way to the front (Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose come to mind). On Friday, a practice session will be held (disregard these speeds) and then qualifying. There will then be two practices held on Saturday, which will help you get an idea of who is fast because they will all be in race trim. Starting position definitely helps on this track, but if a driver has a good car and starts in the back, he should be able to stay on the lead lap and eventually get up to the front. During the last race at Bristol, half of the top ten finishers started outside of the top ten.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

1. Kyle Busch - Remember a few weeks ago at Phoenix how good Jimmie Johnson was at that track? Same thing here at Bristol with Kyle Busch. “Rowdy” has won three of the past five races at this short track, and his other two finishes were 2nd and 9th. In those five starts, Kyle has led 45.7% of the laps ran. His best starting spot in his career here is 9th, though, so don’t expect a pole run on Friday. Since 2006, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 17th–and that was his only run outside of the top ten. His career average finish of 9.3 at Bristol is best in the series. You will gain major points by leaving Busch off your roster if something happens to him–as most people this week will pick him–but are you willing to take that risk?

2. Kurt Busch - Like “Shrub”, Kurt Busch is an awesome pick at Bristol as well. From 2002 through 2004, the elder Busch brother won four races here in five starts. I made the mistake of leaving him off my fantasy rosters during that time, trying to gain major points in the off-chance his wins were a fluke. They weren’t. Kurt’s results haven’t been as good since joining Penske Racing, but they haven’t been terrible either. He’s on a streak of three top 10s at Bristol and hasn’t finished outside of the top 15 since the spring race in 2007. Look for the points leader to  have another solid top ten finish this week, if not a top five.

3. Carl Edwards - Cousin Carl was just one of three drivers to score five top 10s in the six short track races last year. He’s also off to a very hot start this season, with a win last week in Las Vegas and cars capable of winning in all three races (according to him anyway). He’s won here at Bristol twice and posted finishes of 12th and 6th in 2010. Since 2006, Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 16th. Will the 99 team bring another super-fast Ford to Tennessee this week?

4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - If you would have told me before Daytona that Junior would have two top tens (and one of them wasn’t at Daytona) and be 10th in points after three races, I would have called you crazy, but lo and behold, it’s true. The team switches at Hendrick Motorsports seem to have benefited Dale Jr the most–thus far–and he’s on a roll coming into his best track (statistically). Little E hasn’t finished worse than 18th since 2001 and has collected one win at this track (coming in 2004). His career average finish here is 11.5 and his last three finishes at “The Bullring” have been 13th, 7th, and 9th. This ranking may be high to some, but Junior is off to a great start this season and definitely knows how to get around this track (he had seven top 10s in eight starts from 2004 to 2008). I think Junior’s momentum will translate into a top five this week (and maybe even a win).

5. Jimmie Johnson - “Five Time” won the pole here last April, but it was Kyle Busch who went on to win the race. Johnson led 175 laps but finished a disappointing 35th in that race because he got wrecked by Juan Montoya. Jimmie’s previous three starts before last fall gave him finishes of 1st, 8th, and 3rd, but from 2005 to 2008 (eight races) he had only two top ten finishes. I think there are better picks than Johnson this week, but it’s hard to go against a guy who has won five straight championships. I don’t think the 48 team has been running very well at all in 2010, either, so pay attention to the car in practice. Johnson has started in the top five in three of the last four races in “Thunder Valley” and has had the second-best driver rating over that span, though, so it’s not like he hasn’t ran well at this track.

6. Ryan Newman - “The Rocketman” won’t lead a bunch of laps, but don’t be surprised if he posts a solid finish around 6th. In the past seven races at Bristol, Newman has finished 6th or 7th in five of them. When he doesn’t have strong race, though, it’s usually a pretty bad finish (in eight finishes outside of the top ten, six of them have been 30th or worse). The 39 Chevrolet has two straight top tens, and you know I like momentum early in the season.

7. Greg Biffle - “The Biff” disappointed many fantasy owners last week–well, I guess it was his gas man–but don’t expect another sub-par finish this week. The 16 Ford found the top ten in both Bristol races in 2010, and in six of the past eight (the other two were 39th and 11th-place efforts). Biffle has made sixteen career starts in “Thunder Valley” and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. This is his second-best track statistically behind Kansas. Good pick this week? Yes, as long as they got that fuel problem figured out over the break.

8. Matt Kenseth - Like Biffle, this Roushkateer was on a bunch of rosters in Vegas but didn’t have that great of a race. I expect Kenseth to have a good week in Bristol, though: he’s on a three-race streak of top 10s here and has finished there in five of the last six. I have liked the Roush-Fenway Fords in the first three races of 2011, and that hasn’t changed this week. Kenseth won here in 2006, but since then he hasn’t led a lap at “The Bullring” and just one top five. As usual with the 17, pick him if he qualifies near the front (top 15).

9. Denny Hamlin - Hamlin had a great season in 2010, but his Bristol races were less than stellar (19th and 34th-place finishes). Before that, though, he had four straight finishes between 2nd and 6th. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammate is arguably the best here, so one can expect those two teams to help each other. Denny changed an engine last week and came back to record a solid top ten, and they say Las Vegas is the place to start streaks. One food for thought, though: is there something wrong with the Gibbs engines? In addition to Hamlin having to switch engines last week, teammate Joey Logano had engine difficulties in Phoenix and the other Gibbs racer, Kyle Busch, blew an engine at Vegas.

10. Jeff Burton - Does anybody need a good run more than this guy? I know I said the same thing last week, but when will the bad luck end (if you even consider this luck)? Burton is 32nd in points after last week’s 21st-place run at Las Vegas, right in front of Casey Mears by five points (even though Mears has started one less race). I’d like to see the 31 crew look more competitive thus far in the season to recommend him, but the spring race has been kind to them recently: the last four March races have given Burton top tens in each, including a win (2008) and a runner-up finish (2007). One last note: make sure the 31 Chevrolet is fast before putting it on your final roster, though.

11. Jeff Gordon - I expect Gordon will qualify well (his career average start here is 6.8) but won’t stay up front very long. In the last eight races here, Gordon has led only eleven laps, and while he has five wins in “Thunder Valley,” the last one was in 2002. In the last seven races here, Gordon owns just two top tens. He finished 11th and 14th here in 2010, and I think he will fall in right around there on Sunday. Jeff has won five poles at Bristol, though, so he could gain you some valuable bonus points in the Yahoo! game.

12. Tony Stewart - “Smoke” is usually hit or miss at Bristol, but I love picking him when he’s on a roll and I love picking drivers that have momentum to start the season. After last week’s disappointing 2nd-place finish, Stewart comes into a track where he has won before (in 2001) and owns eight top 10s. He finished runner-up to Johnson in the spring race last year and from 2006 to 2008 Stewart led over 30% of the laps ran on this 0.533-mile track. He knows how to get around here, but he will be a risky pick this week. Watch him in practice, and if he is fast in average practice speed, pick him (trust me).

13. Kevin Harvick - If you read anything I said about Harvick in the off-season, you know I don’t expect a lot out of him this year. He’s had good runs, but like his teammate Burton, luck hasn’t been on Happy’s side (but his performance at Phoenix was very impressive). Harvick has one win (2005) and has finished runner-up four times at Bristol, but hasn’t cracked the top ten in the last four races. His career average finish here is 12.3, though, so he knows how to get around the track.

14. Clint Bowyer - He doesn’t have a top ten this season yet, but that could change this weekend. Bowyer ran 4th in the fall race here in 2010 and during the four races in 2007 and 2008, he rattled off four straight top tens. Clint’s best finish at Bristol has been 3rd, which he has done twice (that is also his best starting spot). In ten career races in “Thunder Valley,” Bowyer has usually finished around 16th while starting around 20th.

15. Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac’s average finish in his first four starts at this track was an impressive 7.3, but over the next twelve races, that quickly plummeted to 18.3. He has had good runs here recently, though, with top ten finishes in both Bristol races in 2010 and an 11-th place effort in the fall race during the 2009 season. I doubt he’ll get a top ten this week, but a top fifteen isn’t out of the question.

Underdogs Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

Marcos Ambrose - As you may know, I love keeping Ambrose in my mind when it comes to short tracks. The Tasmanian posted two top ten finishes here in his first two starts, but slipped back last year with 33rd and 20th-place efforts. Will he return to 2009 form? They say Las Vegas is a place to start streaks, and Ambrose had an awesome run there.

Paul Menard - I don’t think many people expected Menard to be 6th in points after three races, or be the best driver (thus far) in the Richard Childress Racing stable. Coming off a 12th-place finish at Vegas, I could see Menard getting a career-best finish at Bristol (his current one is 16th in 2008). He has finished worse than 25th only once in seven career starts in “Thunder Valley”.

David Reutimann - He ran strong here the last time the series visited the track, finishing 2nd to Kyle Busch. Will he be able to repeat that performance? Reutty got his best finish of the season in Las Vegas, coming home 13th. He usually qualifies well at Bristol and the last four races here have given Reutimann finishes of 2nd, 38th, 17th, and 12th. A solid top twenty is expected.

Brad Keselowski - Believe it or not, Bristol is Keselowski’s fourth-best track (statistically). He’s raced here twice and finished 19th and 13th. Kurt Busch put some up great runs in the “Blue Deuce” at this track, can BK continue the tradition?

Those To Avoid Entering The Jeff Byrd 500:

Mark Martin - I have been on the Martin “bandwagon” for the last eight or so Sprint Cup races, but I am officially jumping off. It’s obvious he got the short end of the stick at Hendrick, as his finishes have been average at best this season (even though it usually seems it has a good car). Martin has won the pole here in two of the past four races, so you may pick him to get the bonus points in the Yahoo! game, but I think this week will yield another disappointing ending for Mark Martin fantasy owners: he has just three top tens in his past sixteen Bristol starts.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” may look like a good pick this week based on his qualifying efforts at Bristol (average start of 8.8 in four starts), but don’t let that fool you: he’s never finished on the lead lap here and his best finish is 18th. The 20 crew needs a good week to turn their season around, but I don’t see that happening in “Thunder Valley”.

A.J. Allmendinger - The ‘Dinger’s last two spring starts at Bristol have given him 17th and 16th-place finishes, but his five other starts have seen him end up worse than 30th. A.J. slipped in the points after Las Vegas, and I expect him to fall a little further once the checkered flag waves on Sunday.

Bobby Labonte - Labonte should settle into his expected final points position after this week. Ambrose put up a good run in this car last year, but Bobby couldn’t even figure out this track when he was in his prime. In 36 starts at Bristol, Labonte has just ten top tens and an average finish of 20.4.

Anything can happen at Bristol, so don’t take it too hard if you have a bad fantasy week (we all have a couple). Don’t forget to check out my predictions after Happy Hour at ifantasyrace and make sure to check out NASCAR Nation as well.

Scouting Report: Bristol

Ten Drivers to watch in the Jeff Byrd 500:

1. Kurt Busch - Five time winner who’s finished ninth or better in the last three Bristol races. This team is ready for a win and this could be the weekend.

2. Kyle Busch - 4 wins in the COT at Bristol and an impressive 5.1 average finish.

3. Denny Hamlin - Best driver at Bristol who’s never won. Look for him to be strong.

4. Matt Kenseth - Kenseth is a two time winner who has three straight top tens at Bristol. Since 2002 he has fourteen top tens.

5. Jimmie Johnson - The defending race champion. After a lack luster showing at Las Vegas look for a bounce back race.

6. Kevin Harvick - Harvick has one win and four second place finishes at “Thunder Valley”. So far he’s been a top five car in every race this season.

7. Greg Biffle - In sixteen races at “Thunder Valley” he’s only finished outside the top 12 three times. His average finish is 10.8.

8. Ryan Newman - Since 2003 he has ten top tens and has only finished lower than 16th four times.

9. Clint Bowyer - Finished 4th last summer.

10. Jeff Burton - Things have been bad for a while but since 2007 his spring Bristol average finish is 5.25.

Current Odds from TheSpread.com: Kyle Busch 7/2, Carl Edwards 6/1, Denny Hamlin 7/1, Jimmie Johnson 7/1, Kurt Busch 10/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Jeff Gordon 12/1, Kevin Harvick 12/1, Matt Kenseth 15/1, Clint Bowyer 15/1, Greg Biffle 15/1

Last Years Race: Last years race was a battle between Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson for the checkered flag. Kurt Busch had the better car but Jimmie Johnson had a better late restart. Just check out the Yahoo Race Chart and you’ll know what I mean. Or if you don’t believe me check out this Youtube.com video.

Fantasy tip of the week: If you need a sleeper don’t look for one who’s currently in the top ten. Between Paul Menard, Martin Truex Jr., and AJ Allmendinger they have a combined 0 top tens and have average finishes of 22.9, 22.9, and 30th.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Carl Edwards	12	16.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kyle Busch	1	11.91
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kyle Busch	1	10.63
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Tony Stewart	27	13.21
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	15.29
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kurt Busch	9	12.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kyle Busch	1	10.00
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	11	13.29
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kyle Busch	1	15.79
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	12.42
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	1	10.50
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	1	15.46
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Kurt Busch	9	13.58
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	1	13.96
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	34	15.08
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	14	12.58
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Kyle Busch	1	12.75
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kurt Busch	9	11.83
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Denny Hamlin	34	17.96

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	3	14.54
James Jones	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	23	12.00
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jamie McMurray	3	21.38
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	6	10.79
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	23	14.25
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Dale Earnhardt JrDale Earnhardt Jr	1313	13.2513.04
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	5	13.38
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Mark Martin	23	10.08
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jamie McMurray	3	11.29
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kasey Kahne	5	12.46
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Marcos Ambrose	20	12.63
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	12.92
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Ryan Newman	6	13.92
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	7	18.63
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	11.92
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	13	15.33
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Marcos Ambrose	20	19.54
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jamie McMurray	3	10.29

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