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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Auto Club 400 from Auto Club Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Matt Kenseth	4	7.80
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Matt Kenseth	4	16.20
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Joey Logano	25	16.20
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	16.40
Eric McClung	KFFL	Matt Kenseth	4	9.40
Eric McGuire	free agent	Matt Kenseth	4	8.40
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Matt Kenseth	4	12.40
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	10	8.80
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Matt Kenseth	4	9.00
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	10	21.00
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Matt Kenseth	4	17.00
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	1	6.60
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	7	6.60
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	39	16.40
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	11.40
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Matt Kenseth	4	7.60
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Matt Kenseth	4	9.60
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Greg Biffle	11	22.60
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Greg Biffle	11	12.00

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Auto Club 400 from Fontana

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Jimmie Johnson	2	16.60
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	2	19.40
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	6	18.60
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	6	19.00
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	2	18.60
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	2	24.20
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	6	14.80
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	11	23.80
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.00
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	6	16.00
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.60
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	6	11.80
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	17.20
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	6	13.80
James Jones	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	13	5.60
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.00
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.00
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	6	15.60
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	18.40

Scouting Report: Auto Club Speedway 1

Ten Drivers to watch in the Auto Club 400

1. Jimmie Johnson - In the last four California races he’s won twice, led 323 laps,  and has an untouchable 134.4 driver rating.
2. Tony Stewart – Stewart won last fall and after his strong performance at Las Vegas he’s the clear early favorite to take the checkered flag in the Auto Club 400.
3. Carl Edwards - He’s a previous winner who has seven top seven finishes at Auto Club Speedway.
4. Kyle Busch - Kyle Busch won his first race here and followed that up with nine straight top ten finishes.
5. Kevin Harvick - Very impressive in both races last year. Only Jimmie Johnson’s “Golden Horseshoe” kept him out of victory lane in the spring race. Harvick also won at Michigan last year.
6. Matt Kenseth - Since 2005 he’s only finished worse than 13th once. Kenseth has three career victories at this venue.
7. Kurt Busch - Three straight top eight finishes at Auto Club Speedway when you disregard last falls race.
8. Greg Biffle - Roush cars will be extremely strong this weekend and don’t look for him to have anymore fuel issues.
9. Jeff Gordon - Since 2007 he’s finished 3rd or better four times. Last fall he finished ninth and led eleven laps.
10. Denny Hamlin - Finished first and second at Michigan last year. At Las Vegas he finished 7th.

Practice, Practice, Practice: Knowing what happened in practice is a fantasy must for Auto Club Speedway. Look for long race runs and as a result the best cars will drive to the front with ease. If you pick a driver who struggled in practice then don’t expect good fantasy results. Practice is five times more important then qualifying at this track.

Current TheSpread.com Odds To Win:

• Jimmie Johnson 7/2
• Carl Edwards 6/1
• Kyle Busch 8/1
• Jeff Gordon 8/1
• Denny Hamlin 10/1
• Tony Stewart 10/1
• Kevin Harvick 12/1
• Kurt Busch 15/1
• Clint Bowyer 20/1
• Matt Kenseth 20/1

Auto Club Fantasy Notes: Expect a big Roush day with challenges for the win also coming from Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. However one very important thing to note is that last fall almost all of the Roush cars had engine problems. I don’t expect that to be an issue this time around.

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: California - Auto Club 400

Auto Club Speedway is a 2-mile “D-shaped” oval that is most similar to Michigan International Speedway. One difference between the two is that the track is Michigan has a little bit more banking than the one in California. Two hundred laps are set to be run on Sunday afternoon, making it just 400 miles from start to finish. The last fall race here in Fontana was the first that went just 200 laps (they usually go 250 when they visit Fontana). There is originally two races here during the Sprint Cup season, but schedule changes have taken away the October race in 2011–to the elation of many. The previous nine races held at this track have gone their scheduled distance.

During The Last Race At California…The lead changed hands many times last October (fourteen racers led) but it was Tony Stewart who crossed the finish line first. Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, and Ryan Newman rounded out the top five. In the spring race, Johnson started seventh and led 101 laps in route to his first victory of the season. Richard Childress Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton finished second and third, followed by Mark Martin and Joey Logano.

My Recommendation To Fantasy Racers…The time to take major chances was last week in Bristol. This week, you should go with the favorites and maybe sprinkle in a “surprise” pick if they look good on Friday and Saturday (like Marcos Ambrose at Las Vegas Motor Speedway). Qualifying is important, but don’t put a bunch of emphasis on it. In the two races at Auto Club Speedway in 2010, fourteen of the twenty top ten finishers started outside of the top ten. Last fall, average practice speeds weren’t too telling either. Click here for the results of the October race (they are sorted in order from fastest to slowest in average practice speed with their result underneath). During the last race here there were many pit road speeding violations, and those can mess up a roster real quick.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Auto Club 400:

1. Jimmie Johnson - This shouldn’t be a surprise for anyone–Jimmie Johnson owns this track. He’s made sixteen career starts in Fontana and his worst finish is 16th. In those sixteen races, Johnson owns eleven top three finishes and his career average finish here is 5.3. Over the past two years, the 48 Chevrolet had had an astounding 134.4 average driver rating at California. With five career wins at California–two of them coming in the last three races–Johnson should be a lock this weekend for everyone.

2. Carl Edwards - Nobody has been on more of a hot streak lately as Cousin Carl. He finished off the 2010 season with two straight wins and has finished in the top two in three of the four races this season. If he wouldn’t have had the wreck in Phoenix, that number just may be four-for-four. Edwards wasn’t great in Fontana last season–posting finishes of 13th and 34th–but it’s hard to go against someone who is running as well as Carl is. In thirteen career races at California, Edwards owns ten top seven finishes, and that includes one win (coming in 2008).

3. Tony Stewart - Since Stewart-Haas Racing was formed in 2009, “Smoke” has finished in the top ten in every race at California. He is the most recent winner here and looked awesome at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (even though that isn’t exactly like Auto Club Speedway). In nineteen career starts at this track, Stewart has amassed eleven top 10s. He was running pretty good at Bristol until he ran into his teammate, Ryan Newman, and I think Tony will be back up front this week.

4. Matt Kenseth - Roush-Fenway Racing–as well as all Fords in general–have been so fast to start the season that it’s hard to go against them at their “bread and butter” tracks. Kenseth has an average finish of 10.3 at Auto Club Speedway and from 2005 to 2009 he rattled off eight straight top 10s. Over that span, he collected three wins and never finished worse than 7th. Most of the Roush cars had engine difficulties last time the series was at Fontana, but as long as that doesn’t happen this weekend, it should be a perfect race to load up on the Roushkateers.

5. Kyle Busch - “Rowdy” had a top ten car in Las Vegas but engine problems made him retire early that day. He also had an engine problem in the October race at California, but he knows how to get around this track when he has a good car. Busch won here in 2005 and went on to record seven straight top tens after that. He hasn’t led a bunch of laps here, though, so don’t expect to see Kyle fighting for the lead all day. I love picking Kyle Busch after a win and this week is no exception. Joe Gibbs Racing engines have been hit-or-miss this year, though, so proceed with caution when selecting Busch.

6. Jeff Gordon - It was a great recovery for Gordon last October at Auto Club Speedway: he had a speeding penalty late and rallied back for a 9th-place finish. Jeff has won here three times and over the course of his career (21 races) he has an average finish of around 11th. He’s a little hit-or-miss at Fontana lately, though: in the last nine races he has four top three finishes, but he also has three finishes outside of the top fifteen over that span. Gordon has led at least one lap in each of the past six races held at California.

7. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother hasn’t been as flashy as Carl Edwards this season, but he has been the most consistent driver in the series thus far, and he is coming into a track where he has one win and owns an average finish of 12.7. Three of the past four races in Fontana have ended with Kurt Busch in the top ten, and there’s no reason to think that won’t happen this weekend. He finished 21st here in April, but the entire Penske stable looked average at best all weekend. In 17 career starts at Auto Club Speedway, Kurt has finished on the lead lap in 14 of them.

8. Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has never finished outside of the top 20 at California, and he needs a good run to kick-start his season. He didn’t look great at Las Vegas, which is part of the reason I have him ranked a little low, but Clint has been solid at California lately. His last three starts have netted him finishes of 2nd, 8th, and 9th. Bowyer has led just 44 laps in ten starts at Fontana, so don’t expect a dominating performance, but he is capable of getting a top ten. With the way his luck has been going this year, some people will hold off for a while on picking the #33, but if he has a good run on Sunday, you can gain a bunch of points on the competition.

9. Greg Biffle - As surprising as it may seem, “The Biff” actually isn’t as good at California as many would expect him to be. He has won here, but other than that he has been extremely hit-or-miss: in sixteen starts at Auto Club Speedway, Biffle has amassed four top fives but ten finishes 15th or worse. He had a dominant car at Las Vegas, though, which is really the only similar race you can go off of from this year, and all of the Fords have looked fast this season. It’s a risky pick, but it’s hard to go against the Roush-Fenway Fords at the intermediate tracks.

10. Kevin Harvick - “Happy” is on a streak of three top 10s at California and has finished outside of the top 20 just once in his past nine starts at this track. He’s not great by any means here, though: Harvick’s career average finish is 17.1 and he had just four top 10s in his first fourteen career starts at Fontana. He may continue his streak of good finishes here, but it is certainly possible that he ends up with a teens finish on Sunday like he did at Las Vegas.

11. Paul Menard - Okay, I’ll hop onto the Paul Menard bandwagon this week. He’s had career-best finishes in every single race this season (seriously), so why not another one at Auto Club Speedway? Menard finished 18th here in the spring last year and that is his top finish in eight starts at this track. Everything is going right for this young man this season and unless you see his luck running out this week, he should be a good darkhorse pick this week. These intermediate tracks were the ones he was best on last season. Menard had 11th and 12th-place runs at Michigan while driving for Dale Earnhardt, Inc.

12. Kasey Kahne - Kasey was the surprise of the race for me in October at this track. He posted a fourth-place finish and a driver rating of 106.2. He’s had two 34th-place finishes at Fontana recently, but his other five races in that span have been top 12s. Kahne’s average finish at Auto Club Speedway is 15.4 and his average start is around 10th. He won here in 2006 while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports. Scott Speed drove the #82 car (basically the #4 car that Kahne is in now) to an 11th-place finish here last season.

13. Mark Martin - I said don’t pick Martin last week and regretted that after he posted a 12th-place finish in “Thunder Valley”. He’s not having a terrible season (he sits 11th in points) but I don’t think his is racing up to potential yet. Martin has finished 6th, 4th, and 4th in his last three starts at Fontana, but I don’t expect him to finish there this weekend. Mark’s average finish here is 13.3 and I think that is closer to where he will end up on Sunday.

14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Junior didn’t have a great race like I expected at Bristol last week, but he still posted a solid 11th-place finish. He’s not good at California by any means (22.3 career average finish) but I love picking him when he is on a roll, and he has been consistent every race after Daytona this year. He has won at Michigan–the track most similar to Fontana–and he had a 2nd-place finish here in 2006. I’m not going to guarantee a top ten finish this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit. Junior finished 8th at Las Vegas and ended up 16th at the last race here after starting 9th.

15. Denny Hamlin - It might just be me, but Hamlin has been quietly average this season. His best finish so far in 2011 came in Las Vegas when he drove from the back of the pack to grab a top ten. Other than that race, I haven’t been impressed by the driver that won eight races in 2010. Hamlin has been hit-or-miss at Auto Club Speedway lately with three top 10s in the past six races but also three finishes 29th or worse in that span. Be cautious when picking Hamlin this week. His career average finish here is 17.2.

Underdogs Entering The Auto Club 400:

Brian Vickers - Red Bull Racing seems like they either bring top ten cars to these intermediate tracks or 25th-place cars. Last spring at California, Vickers finished 12th–right behind his then-teammate, Scott Speed. Brian hasn’t looked overly impressive this season, but he finished 10th at Las Vegas and six finishes in the top 12 over his past seven starts at California.

David Ragan - Like I said, don’t go against the Roushkateers on intermediates. Ragan could have won the pole at Vegas but spun in qualifying and finished 22nd after starting in the back. In his first six starts at Auto Club Speedway, Ragan never finished worse than 17th, but last year he finished 32nd and 23rd. I expect him to get back on track this weekend and could pull off a surprise top ten.

Marcos Ambrose - The only reason I’m listing him as an underdog is because of how well he ran at Las Vegas. Ambrose has never finished better than 22nd at Auto Club Speedway, but Kasey Kahne drove this #9 Ford to a top five finish the last time the Sprint Cup Series visited this track. Keep your eye on Marcos this weekend.

David Reutimann - It seems like the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas are either great cars or they fall of during the race and finish around 20th. Reutimann finished 13th in Las Vegas and posted 10th and 15th-place efforts at Fontana in 2010. In eight career starts here, Reutty has four top 15s, with two of them being top 10s.

Those To Avoid Entering The Auto Club 400:

Jeff Burton - Not only is he having absolutely no luck this season but Burton is also decent at best at Auto Club Speedway. He finished 3rd here last February but that is his only top ten in the last five races here. Wait until the #31 Chevrolet has (at least) a decent run before even thinking about picking him.

Joey Logano - Joey’s average finish here is 14th but, like Burton, he seems to be having problems each week, whether it be an engine problem or a loose wheel. Go ahead and pick the #20 if you want, but he has burned me too many times in 2011 to recommend him right now.

Jamie McMurray - Jamie Mac is also having terrible luck this season, but even if he wasn’t I wouldn’t recommend him at Fontana. He won both poles last year but led only 14 laps and finished 17th in both races. He hasn’t had a top ten here since 2006 and his average finish since then has been 22.8.

Martin Truex, Jr. - Truex looked like his normal self last week, being hit-or-miss. He had a good run in the beginning of the race but fell back. Martin finished 6th at Las Vegas, which will make some people look at him this week, but his average finish at California is 21.2 and he hasn’t had a top fifteen finish here since 2008.

If you had a bad week at Bristol, don’t worry: so did I. Just shrug it off because that track is a tricky one to predict. This week should be easier. Be sure to check out my predictions after Happy Hour at ifantasyrace and check out NASCAR Nation–there are many great members there to chat about racing with!

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Pepsi Max 400 at Auto Club Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jimmie Johnson	3	15.40
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	3	10.93
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	41	10.93
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Jimmie Johnson	3	12.27
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	3	13.53
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	3	11.17
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	34	10.97
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	9	13.40
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	3	14.03
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	35	11.50
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	3	9.77
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	3	15.23
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	3	12.70
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	35	13.27
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	3	13.53
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	3	11.73
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	3	12.03
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	3	11.80
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	3	15.03

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Pepsi Max 400 at Autoclub Speedway

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	David Reutimann	10	14.93
James Jones	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	6	12.33
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Jamie McMurray	17	19.57
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	5	10.30
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	16	15.43
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Mark MartinJoey Logano	611	13.8713.73
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	4	14.03
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Jamie McMurray	17	10.37
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jamie McMurray	17	14.00
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Juan Pablo Montoya	14	12.97
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Kasey Kahne	4	14.13
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Juan Pablo Montoya	14	14.40
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	A J Allmendiger	19	15.10
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	6	17.57
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Joey Logano	11	13.53
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jamie McMurray	17	15.67
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	4	18.77
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Joey Logano	11	11.57

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Pepsi Max 400 from Auto Club Speedway

The racing at Auto Club Speedway is very fast and very spread out, so frontrunners can jump out to a big lead in a hurry. From a fantasy perspective, sleeper picks are few and far between because of the premium this track places on horsepower. The fastest cars will cut through traffic with ease. Long green flag runs can bring fuel mileage into play at the end of the race.

Chasing the pole at Auto Club Speedway

1. Jimmie Johnson… Average start of 8.7 in 15 career starts at Fontana.
2. Juan Pablo Montoya…Started second in Feb start at Fontana, fourth in last year’s Chase event.
3. Jamie McMurray… Won the pole in Feb start at Fontana.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.

Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.

1.  Jimmie Johnson… Five-time winner (2/10, 10/09, 8/08, 9/07, 4/02) at Fontana, average running position of fourth or better in six straight starts with over 70 laps led. Y!-A1
2. Kevin Harvick… Average running position of eighth or better in three of the last four starts at Fontana, runner-up in Feb with 27 laps led. Y!-B1
3. Greg Biffle… Won 2/05 race at Fontana, average running position of 13th or better in five straight with two Top Fives and Three Top 10s. Y!-A2
4. Carl Edwards… Won 2/08 race at Fontana, average finish of 7.2 in 12 career starts. Y!-A3
5. Tony Stewart… Average running position of 16th or better in 10 straight starts at Fontana, seven Top 10s. Y!-A4
6. Jeff Gordon… Three-time winner (5/04, 5/99, 6/97) at Fontana, average running position of 13th or better in 10 of the last 11 starts.
7. Kyle Busch… Won 9/05 race at Fontana, average running position of 12th or better in nine of the last 10 starts.
8. Kurt Busch… Won 4/03 race at Fontana, average finish of 6.3 in the last three starts.
9. Denny Hamlin… Average running position of 11th or better in three of the last four starts at Fontana.
10. Jeff Burton… Finished third and led 46 laps in Feb start at Fontana. Y!-B2
11. Matt Kenseth… Three-time winner (2/09, 2/07, 2/06) at Fontana, average running position of 12th or better in 10 of the last 11 starts. Y!-B3
12. Mark Martin… Won 5/98 race at Fontana, has finished fourth in two straight starts.
13. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished 11th and third last year at Fontana, DNF (engine) in Feb.
14. Clint Bowyer… Three Top 10s in the last four starts at Fontana. Y!-B4
15. Kasey Kahne… Won 9/06 race at Fontana, four finishes of 12th or better in the last six starts. Y!-B5
16. Ryan Newman… Only one Top 10 since 06 at Fontana. Y!-B6
17. Jamie McMurray… Average finish of 16.4 in 14 career starts at Fontana. Y!-B7
18. David Reutimann… Average finish of 14.0 in the last four starts at Fontana. Y!-B8
19. Joey Logano… Finished fifth in Feb start at Fontana, average running position of 15th.
20. A.J. Allmendinger… Average finish of 23.8 in five career starts at Fontana, one Top 15. Y!-C1
21. Paul Menard… Finished a career-best 18th in Feb start at Fontana. Y!-C2
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Average finish of 21.6 in nine career starts at Fontana.
23. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Finished 25th or worse in five of the last seven starts at Fontana.
24. Brad Keselowski… Finished 21st in Feb start at Fontana.
25. David Ragan… Average finish of 14.6 in 13 career starts at Fontana.
26. Sam Hornish Jr…. Finished 12th and 16th in the last two starts at Fontana. Y!-C3
27. Scott Speed… Finished a career-best 11th in Feb start at Fontana. Y!-C4
28. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 28.0 in four career starts at Fontana.
29. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 27.8 in eight career starts at Fontana.
30. Elliott Sadler… Won 9/04 race at Fontana, average finish of 28.3 since 07.
31. Regan Smith… Finished a career-best 19th in Feb start at Fontana.
32. Patrick Carpentier… Finished 18th in 8/08 start at Fontana.
33. Casey Mears… Average finish of 22.7 in 13 career starts at Fontana.
34. David Gilliland… Average finish of 27.9 in eight career starts at Fontana.
35. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 29.0 in seven career starts at Fontana.
36. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 28.1 in 16 career starts at Fontana, two straight DNFs.
37. Bobby Labonte… Average finish of 23.8 since 08 at Fontana.
38. Dave Blaney… Average finish of 30.9 in 15 career starts at Fontana.
39. Andy Lally… Likely start and park.
40. Landon Cassill… Likely start and park.
41. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
42. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
43. J.J. Yeley… Likely start and park.
44. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park. DNQ last week.
45. Jason Leffler… Likely start and park. DNQ last week.

Contender or Pretender: Auto Club Speedway

Jimmie Johnson (Contender) - How can you bet against Jimmie Johnson this week at Auto Club Speedway? He’s getting into his traditional Chase roll and he’s won three out of the last four races at California. Auto Club Speedway is Jimmie Johnson’s home track and is the site of his first career win. In the five COT races at Auto Club Speedway Jimmie Johnson has only finished outside the top two once, and that was a ninth place finish.

Kasey Kahne (Pretender) - Kasey Kahne is a previous California winner but I don’t trust him. The consistency of this team hasn’t been there all season long so I certainly don’t expect it to show up now. Kasey Kahne has only led 1 lap in the COT and has finished 34th in the last two Auto Club races.

Kevin Harvick (Contender) - Harvick arguably had the best car the last time the series visited this venue. Unfortunately for him Jimmie Johnson had his lucky horseshoe that day. Other reasons to be optimistic about Kevin Harvick this week are that he won at Michigan, and was very impressive at Kansas.

Ryan Newman (Pretender) - Since 2006 Ryan Newman has only finished in the top ten once at Auto Club Speedway. His lone top ten over this time period was a tenth place finish in the February 2008 race. Since his last top ten Ryan Newman has only finished in the top fifteen once and has an average finish of 23.75.

Jeff Gordon (Contender) - Jeff Gordon is another California native who I think will contend for the win. Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson won the races last year, but Jeff Gordon finished second twice. Gordon’s average running position in both races last year was 3.5.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (Pretender) - With no shake up coming in this lame duck portion of the season expect nothing to change about the 88. In the COT era Earnhardt Jr. probably has about the worst average finish. In the COT his average finish is 29.4. He’s finished  11th, 25th, 32nd, 39th, and 40th in the COT.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: 2010 Auto Club 500 from Auto Club Speedway

The racing at Auto Club Speedway is very fast and very spread out. The leaders can jump out to big leads. The long green flag runs can bring fuel mileage into play at the end of the race. This week will be the first test of each team’s intermediate package which will be important for the upcoming races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The most similar track is Michigan International Speedway where the 15th and 23rd races on the schedule are held. Auto Club Speedway will not get another visit until its Chase event, No. 30 on the schedule.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Fontana and Michigan [2.0 mile, D-shaped ovals]

Chasing the pole at Auto Club Speedway

1. Brian Vickers… Won the pole at last year’s Auto Club 500 in addition to capturing poles for both MIS races.
2. Jimmie Johnson… Average starting position of 1.8 over the last five starts at Auto Club– 4.4 at MIS.
3. Juan Pablo Montoya… Started inside the Top 5 for late season races at Auto Club and MIS.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings.  Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Four-time winner (10/09, 8/08, 9/07, 4/02) at Fontana. Average finish of 2.8 since ‘07 with three wins, all Top 10s– led at least 31 laps in all six races. Y! A-1
2. Jeff Gordon… Three-time winner (5/04, 5/99, 6/97) at Fontana. Runner-up in both ‘09 races. Had led at least two laps in seven of the last eight. Y! A-2
3. Matt Kenseth… Three-time winner (2/09, 2/06, 2/07) at Fontana– average finish of 3.9 in that span. Finished 13th in 10/09 race. Y! B-1
4. Carl Edwards… Won 2/08 race at Fontana. Only one finish worse than seventh in 11 career starts. Y! A-3
5. Greg Biffle… Won 2/05 race at Fontana. Finished 20th in 10/09 but had an Average Running Position of 10th. Average finish of 3.0 in the prior two. Y! A-4
6. Tony Stewart… Average finish of 6.5 in ‘09 Fontana races, Top 10s in three straight Feb races.
7. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished 11th in 2/09 at Fontana, third in 10/09– each set career bests.
8. Mark Martin… Won 5/98 race at Fontana. DNF (engine) in 2/09, fourth in 10/09 race.
9. Denny Hamlin… DNF (crash) in 10/09 race at Fontana, 4.5 in the prior two.
10. Kyle Busch… Won 9/05 race at Fontana. Average finish of 6.3 from 2/06 - 2/09, 24th in 10/09 race.
11. Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 15.5 at Fontana in ‘07, 6.0 in ‘08, DNF (crash) and 10th in ‘09. Y! B-2
12. Kurt Busch… Won 4/03 race at Fontana. Average finish of 8.0 in ‘07, 26.0 in ‘08, 6.5 in ‘09 races.
13. Kasey Kahne… Won 9/06 race at Fontana. Average finish of 8.5 in ‘08, finished 12th and DNF (crash) in ‘09. Y! B-3
14. Clint Bowyer… Has never finished worse than 20th in eight career starts at Fontana, 15th in Driver Rating. Top 10s in two of the last three. Y! B-4
15. Brian Vickers… Had a streak of five Top 12s at Fontana from 2/07 - 2/09. Y! B-5
16. David Ragan… Strong value play. Finished a career-best seventh at Fontana in 10/09, average finish of 13.2 in six career starts. Y! B-6
17. David Reutimann… Strong value play. Average finish of 13.7 in the last three starts at Fontana. Y! B-7
18. Joey Logano… Started 34th, finished 26th in first career Cup start at Fontana– started sixth and finished 14th in 10/09 race. Average start of 3.7, average finish of 3.3 in three career Nationwide starts, won from the pole in October. Y! B-8
19. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Finishes of 25th or worse in three of the last four races at Fontana.
20. Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Average finish of 8.9 at Fontana from ‘03-’06, 25.2 and no Top 15s since.
21. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Average finish of 12.5 in ‘08 Fontana races, 24.5 in ‘09 races.
22. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 4.0 at Fontana in ‘07, 14.5 in ‘08, 31.0 in ‘09.
23. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 21.6 at Fontana since ‘06, only three Top 15s.
24. A.J. Allmendinger… Average start of 10.0, average finish of 23.5 in four career starts at Fontana. Y! C-1
25. Sam Hornish Jr…. Long shot value play. Finished a career-best 12th at Fontana in 10/09 race, first Top 20 in four starts. Y! C-2
26. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 22.5 in ‘09 Fontana races.
27. Bobby Labonte… Average finish of 23.0 at Fontana since ‘08. Y! C-3
28. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup starts at Fontana. Average finish of 28.7 in seven career Nationwide starts, finished a career-best fifth in October.
29. Max Papis… Started 15th, finished 35th in 10/09 race, first career Cup start at Fontana. Started and finished 10th in last year’s Truck race. Y! C-4
30. Elliott Sadler… Won 9/04 race at Fontana, 23.5 average finish since– no Top 20s since ‘07.
31. Scott Speed… DNF (engine) in 2/09 race at Fontana, 21st in 10/09 race.
32. Travis Kvapil… Finished a career-best 18th at Fontana in 2/09, average finish of 28.8 in six career starts.
33. Casey Mears… Average finish of 22.7 in 13 career starts at Fontana.
34. Paul Menard… Average finish of 28.7 at Fontana in six career starts.
35. Regan Smith… Average finish of 31.7 at Fontana in three career starts.
36. Aric Almirola… Average finish of 32.0 in three career starts at Fontana.
37. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 32.6 since ‘05 at Fontana, only one Top 20.
38. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Fontana. Finished 18th in last year’s October Nationwide race.
39. Boris Said… No Cup starts at Fontana since ‘05.
40. David Gilliland… Average finish of 37.5 in ‘09 Fontana races.
41. Terry Cook… No career Cup starts at Fontana. Average finish of 16.5 in 13 career Truck races, start and parked in both ‘09 Nationwide races.
42. Johnny Sauter… No career Cup starts at Fontana. Finished 17th in last year’s Truck race.
43. Mike Bliss… Start and parked in 10/09 race, first Cup start at Fontana. Finished 13th in both ‘09 Nationwide races, 18th in Truck race.
44. Michael McDowell… Start and parked in 10/09 race, first career Cup start at Fontana. DNF (crash) in both Nationwide races last year.
45. Joe Nemechek… Start and parked in both ‘09 Fontana races.
46. Dave Blaney… Start and parked in both ‘09 Fontana races.

On Pit Row has several groups for you to battle against other fantasy players!

• Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing ID# 26538, password “daytona”
• ESPN Stock Car Challenge
• FOX Sports Auto Racing Challenge (salary cap) ID# 9138

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2010 Auto Club 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Greg Biffle	10	6
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	13	12.5
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	13	12.5
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Greg Biffle	10	11
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	13	13.5
Eric McGuire	free agent	Carl Edwards	13	13.5
Jon Rodgers Dan Beaver	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner Fantasy Racing Games	Mark Martin Jimmie Johnson	4 1	9 7.5
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	10	16
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jimmie Johnson	1	11.5
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	7	14.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	4	13
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	10	16
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Matt Kenseth	7	14.5
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Matt Kenseth	7	14.5
Jay Busby	Yahoo! Sports	Jimmie Johnson	1	11.5
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	20	21
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	1	11.5
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Matt Kenseth	7	15
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	1	12
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Juan Montoya	37	30

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