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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Kobalt Tools 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway

With eight of the same drivers making up the Top 10 in two straight races, it is clear what teams have their intermediate program figured out. Momentum is key heading into third intermediate race in a row during this part of the schedule. Atlanta is first of eight races to be held on a 24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-oval but with the standings so top heavy, expect many of the same drivers to play similar parts.

	Fontana		Las Vegas
1	Jimmie Johnson	1	Jimmie Johnson
2	Kevin Harvick	2	Kevin Harvick
3	Jeff Burton	3	Jeff Gordon
4	Mark Martin	4	Mark Martin
5	Joey Logano	5	Matt Kenseth
6	Kurt Busch	6	Joey Logano
7	Matt Kenseth	7	Tony Stewart
8	Clint Bowyer	8	Clint Bowyer
9	Tony Stewart	9	Kasey Kahne
10	Greg Biffle	10	Greg Biffle

• NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

Chasing the pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway

1. Mark Martin… Won pole at last year’s Kobalt Tools 500, started seventh in September race.
2. Kurt Busch… Won the pole last week at Vegas. Started second and sixth last year Atlanta.
3. Kyle Busch… Started ninth and fifth last year at Atlanta. Average start of 7.0 this season.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Atlanta: ‘07 sweep, 10/04. Eleven Top 10s in 17 career starts at Atlanta. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Four-time winner at Atlanta: 10/03, 3/99, 11/98, 3/95. Since 10/05: Eight Top 10s in nine races, all 12th or better. Y!-A2
3. Kevin Harvick… Won 3/01 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 3.0 last year. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 11/94, 11/91. Finished 31st (Average Running Position of 14th) and fifth last year at Atlanta. Y!-A3
5. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 12.0 last year at Atlanta, 6.0 from ‘06-’08. Y!-B2
6. Clint Bowyer… Finished sixth in three straight March races at Atlanta. Y!-B3
7. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 7.0 at Atlanta in ‘08, DNF (crash) and 10th place finish last year. Y!-A4
8. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 10/06, 3/02. Average finish of 4.3 in March races since ‘06 at Atlanta.
9. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 4.5 in ‘07 at Atlanta, 14.0 in ‘08. Finished 14th and 34th last year. Y!-B4
10. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner at Atlanta: 10/08, ‘05 sweep. Finished third and 37th last year at Atlanta.
11. Kurt Busch… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 3/09, 10/02. Won last year’s March race, DNF (crash) in September. Average finish of 11.0 in ‘07-’08 March races, 7.0 in September.
12. Kasey Kahne… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 9/09, 3/06. Finished seventh in last year’s March race. Y!-B5
13. Joey Logano… Average start of 38.0, average finish of 26.0 in ‘09 at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth last year. Y!-B6
14. Kyle Busch… Won 3/08 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 15.5 last year at Atlanta.
15. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 14.0 in last two March races at Atlanta, 4.5 in Sep/Oct.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 3/04 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 13.5 since ‘07. Y!-B7
17. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished at career-best third in September race last year at Atlanta.
18. David Reutimann… Finished at career-best fourth in September race last year at Atlanta. Y!-B8
19. Brian Vickers… Average finish of 6.0 at Atlanta last year.
20. Jamie McMurray… Finished 15th in last year’s March race at Atlanta, 28th in September.
21. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 15.0 in ‘08 at Atlanta, finished 22nd and ninth last year.
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Finished 10th and 26th last year at Atlanta. IROC: Won ‘05 and ‘06.
23. A.J. Allmendinger… Strong value play. Average finish of 16.8 in four career starts at Atlanta. Truck: DNFs (crashes) in ‘06 and ‘07. Y!-C1
24. Paul Menard… Strong value play. Finished 15th in last year’s September race at Atlanta. Y!-C2
25. Scott Speed… Strong value play. DNF (crash) and 24th place last year at Atlanta. Truck: 27th, fifth in ‘08. Y!-C3
26. Bill Elliott… Weak value play. Five-time winner at Atlanta: ‘92 sweep, 11/87, ‘85 sweep. DNF (crash) in last year’s March race at Atlanta, running 16th midrace. Y!-C4
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 20.5 last year at Atlanta.
28. David Ragan… Average finish of 26.0 last year at Atlanta.
29. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth in ‘08, fourth last year.
30. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 30.0 in three career starts at Atlanta.
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 30.2 in four career starts at Atlanta. N’wide: 15th in ‘07. IndyCar: fourth in ‘01. IROC: ninth of 12 in ‘06.
32. Regan Smith… Average finish of 34.0 in two career starts at Atlanta (both in ‘08). N’wide: 22.0 from ‘06-’07. Truck: 23.5 in ‘05, ‘07.
33. Bobby Labonte… Long shot value play. Six-time winner at Atlanta: 3/03, 11/01, 11/99, 3/98, 11/97, 11/96. DNF (engine) in March race, 18th in September last year at Atlanta.
34. Robby Gordon… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.0 last year at Atlanta.
35. David Gilliland… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.5 last year at Atlanta.
36. Travis Kvapil… DNF (engine) last year in March race at Atlanta. Average finish of 26.0 in ‘08.Truck: 11.8 in five career starts (’04, ‘07-’08). IROC: fifth in ‘04.
37. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: ‘03, ‘06. ARCA: ‘02. Average finish of 33.5 this season.
38. Max Papis… DNF (crash) in last year’s September race, first career Cup start at Atlanta. Truck: finished 20th last year. IROC: 8.5 from ‘05-’06.
39. Dave Blaney… Did not start and park last week, finished 29th.
40. Michael McDowell… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: DNF (transmission) last year.
41. Mike Bliss… Start and parked both races last year at Atlanta. N’wide: seventh in ‘08, start and park last year. Truck: seventh, won in ‘06, eighth last year.
42. Boris Said… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at Atlanta.
43. Aric Almirola… Likely start and park. Finished 21st in last year’s March race at Atlanta. N’wide: 27th in ‘07. Truck: 18th, DNF (engine) in ‘06.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Two DNFs last year.
45. Casey Mears… Failed to qualify three times this season. Average finish of 21.2 in 14 career starts at Atlanta.
46. Terry Cook… Failed to qualify three times this season. No career Cup starts. Truck: 12.5 in 10 career starts.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Kobalt Tools 500

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	5	14.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Paul Menard	5	15
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	18	9
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	21	13
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Jeff Gordon Dale Earnhardt Jr	18 15	6 5.25
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	9.5
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	9.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kurt Busch	1	7.75
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12.5
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	19.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	18	11.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	19.25
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendiger	6	20.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	18	15.75

NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

This table show the average finish of 35 drivers in the eight races at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway (Formerly Lowe’s Motor Speedway) during the 2009 season. All of these tracks are 1.5 mile long and feature 24 degree corner backing.

	ATL 1	TX 1	CHA 1	ATL 2	CHA 2	TX 2	AVERAGE
Jeff Gordon	2	1	14	8	4	13	7.0
Matt Kenseth	12	5	10	12	2	3	7.3
Tony Stewart	8	4	19	11	13	6	10.2
Kasey Kahne	7	19	7	1	3	33	11.7
Ryan Newman	22	15	2	9	11	12	11.8
Kyle Busch	18	18	6	13	8	11	12.3
David Reutimann	32	11	1	4	15	16	13.2
Mark Martin	31	6	17	5	17	4	13.3
Denny Hamlin	13	12	11	6	42	2	14.3
Greg Biffle	34	3	20	10	16	8	15.2
Kurt Busch	1	8	34	38	10	1	15.3
Brian Vickers	5	16	5	7	34	26	15.5
Kevin Harvick	4	27	41	2	18	5	16.2
Jimmie Johnson	9	2	13	36	1	38	16.5
Jeff Burton	14	9	25	34	14	9	17.5
Clint Bowyer	6	22	36	29	6	7	17.7
Martin Truex Jr.	10	25	23	26	9	14	17.8
Joey Logano	30	30	9	22	5	19	19.2
Juan Pablo Montoya	27	7	8	3	35	37	19.5
Casey Mears	16	21	33	25	7	21	20.5
Carl Edwards	3	10	4	37	39	39	22.0
AJ Allmendinger	17	34	32	20	23	10	22.7
Brad Keselowski		23			12	35	23.3
Paul Menard	28	13	29	15	27	29	23.5
Robby Gordon	26	39	3	16	30	27	23.5
Scott Speed	35		18	24	28	18	24.6
David Ragan	19	37	24	33	20	17	25.0
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	11	20	40	17	38	25	25.2
Elliot Sadler	20	32	31	21	26	22	25.3
Jamie McMurray	15	38	21	28	33	20	25.8
Bill Elliott	36	28	15	19	29	34	26.8
Marcos Ambrose	38	41	26	23	22	15	27.5
Bobby Labonte	40	40	12	18	31	31	28.7
Sam Hornish Jr.	37	17	16	35	40	40	30.8
Regan Smith		31				32	31.5

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Kevin Harvick	9	8
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Matt Kenseth	2	10.5
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	9	10
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Greg Biffle	8	9.75
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	33	18.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	12	18.5
Jon Rodgers Dan Beaver	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Jhnson Jimmie Johnson	12 12	10.5 7.5
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	39	19.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Carl Edwards	39	15.75
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	25	16.5
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	33	20
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	12	11
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	12	14
Jay Busby	Yahoo! Sports	Jeff Gordon	18	11
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	9	13.5
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	10.5
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	12	13.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	33	18
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	12	21.75

Contender Or Pretender: Atlanta

Jeff Gordon (Contender) – In the 4 COT races held at Atlanta Motor Speedway Jeff Gordon is the only driver to sweep the top ten in every race. Over the last 4 COT Atlanta races Jeff Gordon has the best average finish (6th) and the second best average start (7.0).

At Las Vegas Jeff Gordon was absolutely dominant until the end of the race and led a race high 219 laps. In 2009 Jeff Gordon scored the most points in he series on intermediate tracks and had finishes of 2nd and 8th at Atlanta.

Jimmie Johnson (Pretender) - THIS IS NOT A TYPO. Did you read Charlie’s post about Does Jimmie Johnson’s Greatness Get You Down? If it does let me try to help you out here. In the stats that you can download from the Onpitrow.com newsletter you’ll be overwhelmed by how dominant Jimmie Johnson’s been at Atlanta over the last 10 races. He’s the best in the series at Atlanta in terms of  best average start, average mid race, average finish, average position, most laps in the top 15, laps led, percent of laps led, and last but not least he boasts a driver rating 110.1 which is nearly 5 points higher than his closest competitor (Carl Edwards).

So now you’re wondering how in the world is he a pretender? He hasn’t been that good in the 4 COT races at Atlanta. In the COT era his average finish here is 15th. In the first COT Atlanta race his car was out in the weeds and got lapped on the track several times (first race graph). In the next Atlanta COT race he finished 2nd but that race result was the product of fresh tires in a near legendary sprint to the finish. His second place finish isn’t even close to reflecting how the 48 car was that day (second race graph). In the spring 2009 COT race Jimmie wasn’t competitive late in the race and finished 9th (third race graph). Last fall Jimmie Johnson was competitive for the first half the race but the 48 lost the handle of the car and shortly after that they suffered a mechanical failure and were done for the day (fourth race graph).

So after all of this I’ll say Jimmie Johnson isn’t bad here, but he certainly isn’t a contender. His stats are heavily padded by what he accomplished in the old car and that era is over.

Kevin Harvick (Contender) – Last fall at Atlanta is when I started to see something in Kevin Harvick that would translate into 2010 success. He had the car to beat in the second Atlanta race of 2009, but the 29 car wasn’t the best on short runs which is how that race was decided. He was extremely strong on the long runs (sound familiar lately).

This is a little bit off topic but check out what I said about Kevin Harvick in a Experts Fantasy NASCAR draft earlier this year.

Denny Hamlin (Pretender) – Denny Hamlin has been pretty bad this year. After Las Vegas and California I see no real reason to be optimistic about Denny Hamlin at Atlanta. At Las Vegas his average running position was 20.5. He had similar uncompetitive numbers at California. For a driver who many felt would be Jimmie Johnson’s biggest competitor this year I don’t think he could do any worse.

Kyle Busch (Contender) – Kyle smoked the field last fall at Texas. He led 232 laps, but the 18 team was off in the fuel department. His success that day will translate into a good run at Atlanta Sunday.

Ryan Newman (Pretender) – I can’t think of a worse intermediate track for Newman. Going back to 2005 Newman has only finished in the top ten once, and that was a 9th place finish last fall (product of fresh tires at the end). He’s good at winning the pole here (7 poles), but that  hasn’t translated into good finishes.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s UPDATED

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Below are 32 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish at three similar tracks: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Lowe’s Motor Speedway and Texas.

Also see my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table which is very useful for planning your lineup for the rest of the season.

	Atlanta 1	Texas	Lowe’s	Atlanta 2	Lowe’s 2	AVERAGE
Jeff Gordon	2	1	14	8	4	5.8
Kasey Kahne	7	19	7	1	3	7.4
Matt Kenseth	12	5	10	12	2	8.2
Tony Stewart	8	4	19	11	13	11.0
Ryan Newman	22	15	2	9	11	11.8
Jimmie Johnson	9	2	13	36	1	12.2
David Reutimann	32	11	1	4	15	12.6
Kyle Busch	18	18	6	13	8	12.6
Brian Vickers	5	16	5	7	34	13.4
Mark Martin	31	6	17	5	17	15.2
Juan Pablo Montoya	27	7	8	3	35	16.0
Greg Biffle	34	3	20	10	16	16.6
Denny Hamlin	13	12	11	6	42	16.8
Brad Keselowski		23			12	17.5
Kurt Busch	1	8	34	38	10	18.2
David Stremme	23	14	22	14	19	18.4
Kevin Harvick	4	27	41	2	18	18.4
Carl Edwards	3	10	4	37	39	18.6
Martin Truex Jr.	10	25	23	26	9	18.6
Jeff Burton	14	9	25	34	14	19.2
Joey Logano	30	30	9	22	5	19.2
Clint Bowyer	6	22	36	29	6	19.8
Casey Mears	16	21	33	25	7	20.4
Paul Menard	28	13	29	15	27	22.4
Robby Gordon	26	39	3	16	30	22.8
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	11	20	40	17	38	25.2
AJ Allmendinger	17	34	32	20	23	25.2
Bill Elliott*	36	28	15	19	29	25.4
Jamie McMurray	15	38	21	28	33	27.0
Bobby Labonte	40	40	12	18	31	28.2
Sam Hornish Jr.	37	17	16	35	40	29.0
Marcos Ambrose	38	41	26	23	22	30.0

*David Gilliland drove the No. 21 Wood Brothers in the second race at Atlanta. Bill Elliott cracked three ribs during a dirt bike accident and was unable to race. Elliott finished 19th two weeks ago at Kansas Motor Speedway in his first race back.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the NASCAR Banking 500 at Lowe’s Motor Speedway. Below are 31 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish at three similar tracks: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Lowe’s. The table will be updated with this week’s results to be used for the upcoming Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway on November 8th.

Also see my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table which is very useful for planning your lineup for the rest of the season.

	Atlanta 1	Texas	Lowe’s	Atlanta 2	AVERAGE
Jeff Gordon	2	1	14	8	6.3
Brian Vickers	5	16	5	7	8.3
Kasey Kahne	7	19	7	1	8.5
Matt Kenseth	12	5	10	12	9.8
Denny Hamlin	13	12	11	6	10.5
Tony Stewart	8	4	19	11	10.5
Juan Pablo Montoya	27	7	8	3	11.3
David Reutimann	32	11	1	4	12.0
Ryan Newman	22	15	2	9	12.0
Carl Edwards	3	10	4	37	13.5
Kyle Busch	18	18	6	13	13.8
Mark Martin	31	6	17	5	14.8
Jimmie Johnson	9	2	13	36	15.0
Greg Biffle	34	3	20	10	16.8
David Stremme	23	14	22	14	18.3
Kevin Harvick	4	27	41	2	18.5
Kurt Busch	1	8	34	38	20.3
Jeff Burton	14	9	25	34	20.5
Martin Truex Jr.	10	25	23	26	21.0
Robby Gordon	26	39	3	16	21.0
Paul Menard	28	13	29	15	21.3
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	11	20	40	17	22.0
Joey Logano	30	30	9	22	22.8
Clint Bowyer	6	22	36	29	23.3
Casey Mears	16	21	33	25	23.8
Bill Elliott*	36	28	15	19	24.5
Jamie McMurray	15	38	21	28	25.5
AJ Allmendinger	17	34	32	20	25.8
Sam Hornish Jr.	37	17	16	35	26.3
Bobby Labonte	40	40	12	18	27.5
Marcos Ambrose	38	41	26	23	32.0

*David Gilliland drove the No. 21 Wood Brothers in the second race at Atlanta. Bill Elliott cracked three ribs during a dirt bike accident and was unable to race. Elliott finished 19th two weeks ago at Kansas Motor Speedway in his first race back.

NASCAR Power Rankings: Richmond 2

Atlanta

Who's Up	Who's Down
Biggest Gain This Week: Denny Hamlin: 9th to 7th	Biggest Drop This Week: Carl Edwards: 7th to 10th
No new drivers this week.	No drivers dropped out this week.

Rank: 1st Jimmie Johnson #48 Last Week: 1 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Jimmie Johnson- Locked in the Chase This is the best team in NASCAR (loyal readers are probably getting tired of hearing this), but loyal readers also probably remember my earlier rants about how the 48 keeps shooting themselves in the foot. They certainly can't do this in the Chase.

Rank: 2nd Mark Martin #5 Last Week: 2 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Mark Martin- 69 Points ahead of 13th Power Rankings are about how well a team is performing not where they are in the point standings. Martin's team is strong but unfortunately for them they're a bubble team that will (most likely) either be 1st in the points at New Hampshire or 13th.

Rank: 3rd Jeff Gordon #24 Last Week: 4 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Jeff Gordon- Locked in the Chase Part of me is saying that the "Drive for 5" might just be alive. With the 48 having problems so frequently the door for the Championship will be open for someone. Will Gordon open it?

Rank: 4th Tony Stewart #14 Last Week: 3 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Tony Stewart- Locked in the Chase This team has really been off their game since Pocono (when you take Watkins Glen out) despite what their finishes indicate. They have been squeaking by but that won't cut it in the Chase.

Rank: 5th Juan Pablo Montoya #42 Last Week: 6 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Juan Pablo Montoya- 88 Points ahead of 13th This is probably the best team in NASCAR history that only has two top fives. The 42 has been strong everywhere for months and if things go right for this team in the Chase then I wouldn't be surprised if Montoya finishes in the top 5.

Rank: 6th Kurt Busch #2 Last Week: 5 Change: -1 Driver Page | Articles

Kurt Busch- 95 Points ahead of 13th This team is a championship contender, but man where they bad at Atlanta. They dominated the spring race at Atlanta but were junk Sunday.This team has been strong at recent similar tracks so I don't expect any problems for them at Richmond.

Rank: 7th Denny Hamlin #11 Last Week: 9 Change: +2 Driver Page | Articles

Denny Hamlin- Locked in the Chase With a 6th place finish Denny Hamlin became just the 4th driver to lock himself into the Chase. Richmond is a track that fits Hamlin's strengths perfectly so he might just enter the Chase with 20 bonus points.

Rank: 8th Brian Vickers #83 Last Week: 8 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Brian Vickers- 21 Points out of the Chase Brian Vickers really needed to score more points at Atlanta. If you're a Vickers fan and you look at his Richmond stats you'll feel sick to your stomach. His average finish is 29.1 and he spends 18.4% of his laps in the top 15.

Rank: 9th Kasey Kahne #9 Last Week: 10 Change: +1 Driver Page | Articles

Kasey Kahne- 96 Points ahead of 13th Kahne did everything he could possibly do at Atlanta to assure himself a Chase appearance but the job isn't done yet. Kahne needs to finish 21st or better to clinch a Chase spot. With his win Kahne moved up 5 positions in the points.

Rank: 10th Carl Edwards #99 Last Week: 7 Change: -3 Driver Page | Articles

Carl Edwards- 105 Points ahead of 13th Some teams will enter the Chase running good and others will enter the Chase limping. To my amazement Edwards could competitively drive a car with a broken foot. I expect his right foot to get more of a test at Richmond then it did at Atlanta.

Rank: 11th Greg Biffle #16 Last Week: 11 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Greg Biffle- 68 Points ahead of 13th Biffle built up his points buffer zone at Atlanta, but not by much. In order for Biffle to make the Chase all that he needs to do is finish 11th. It certainly sounds easy enough but my gut tells me Biffle might be in trouble.

Rank: 12th Kyle Busch #18 Last Week: 12 Change: 0 Driver Page | Articles

Kyle Busch- 37 Points out of the Chase There are hypothetical scenarios where Kyle Busch will race his way into the Chase but I'll make it real easy for you. He won't. The only way Kyle will make the Chase is if some driver between 5th through 12th has problems.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Pep Boys 500 at Atlanta

Greetings On Pit Row readers.

Lights. Cameras. Racing! This weekend will mark the first night race at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Among the fastest tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule, drivers rarely need to put a foot on the brake pedal around this 1.54-mile quad-oval.

Atlanta Motor Speedway is among the fastest tracks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup schedule. Drivers rarely need to put a foot on the brake pedal around this 1.54-mile quad-oval. Its configuration is most similar to Texas Motor Speedway and Lowe’s Motor Speedway; all three tracks are banked 24 degrees in the corners.

For fantasy owners, I would look closer at the results of the early March race at Atlanta and the early April race at Texas. The race, held in late May, at Lowe’s was the most recent but is 100 miles longer and the crews had a lot more time to setup thanks to the All-Star events.

• Jeff Gordon is the only driver who finished in the top five at both events, winning at Texas and runner-up in Atlanta.
• Several drivers registered top-10 finishes at both Atlanta and Texas: Kurt Busch (first, eighth), Carl Edwards (third, 10th), Tony Stewart (eighth, fourth) and Jimmie Johnson (ninth, second).
• Only Carl Edwards finished in the top 10 at all three tracks, adding a fourth-place result at Lowe’s.

Erik Darnell will make his Cup series debut at the expense of Bobby Labonte, a six-time winner at Atlanta, in the No. 96 car. Darnell has had success in the Truck series. At Atlanta he owns an average career finish of 13.2 in six career Truck races, including three top-10 finishes.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Strong qualifier. Best average start of the last five years (6.7), also best average finish (5.8). Last 12 Atlanta races: has led laps in eight, eight top-five finishes, 10 top-10 finishes- never finished worse than 16th in that span. Swept in ‘07, another win in ‘04. Won the pole last year. Finished ninth in March. Y-A1
2. Tony Stewart… Last 16 Atlanta races: eight top-five finishes, 13 top-10 finishes. Won in ‘02 and ‘06. Average finish of 9.0 over the last two years (three races). Finished eighth in March. Y-B1
3. Jeff Gordon… Last eight Atlanta races: four top-five finishes, all top-12 finishes, led laps in five. Won the pole 3/08. Won in ‘95, ‘98, ‘99, ‘03. Runner-up in March. Y-A2
4. Kurt Busch… Dominated in March: started second, won after leading 234 of 325 laps. Also won in ‘02. Last five races: led laps in four, average finish of 7.4- has not finished worse than 11th in that span. Y-B2
5. Mark Martin… Won the pole in March, led five laps but finished 31st- but was running in the top-10 before an accident. Last six Atlanta races: only one top-10 finish, two DNFs. Wins in ‘91 and ‘94. Y-A3
6. Brian Vickers… Three top-10 finishes in his last four Atlanta races. Finished a career best fifth in March. Y-B3
7. Carl Edwards… Good qualifier. Ten career starts at Atlanta: swept in ‘05, won last year. Six top-five finishes, eight top-10 finishes, has led laps in seven. Career average finish of 3.1, minus two DNFs. Started fourth in both races last year. Finished third in March. Y-A4
8. Kasey Kahne… Boom or bust. 11 career Atlanta starts: six top-10 finishes but average finish of 34.6 in the other five races. Won from the pole in ‘06. Finished seventh in March. Y-B4
9. Denny Hamlin… Nine career starts at Atlanta: two top-10 finishes. Career-best third-place finish last year, led 56 laps. Finished 13th in March. Y-B5
10. Matt Kenseth… Five top-five finishes over the last eight Atlanta races, average finish of 6.6 in that span- all 13th or better. Finished 12th in March.
11. Greg Biffle… Started fifth, finished 34th (accident) in March. Average finish of 7.0 in ‘08.
12. Clint Bowyer… Has finished in sixth in four of the last five Atlanta races, including the March race.
13. Kyle Busch… No top 10s until winning last year’s March race, led 173 of 325 laps, finished fifth in November. Finished 18th this past March.
14. Juan Pablo Montoya… Career-best fourth-place start in March, finished 27th. Five career starts: average finish of 20.5 in four non-DNFs. Y-B6
15. Ryan Newman… Strong qualifier. Won seven poles, most recent 3/07. Six poles in a row from ‘03-’05. Last three races: 13.6 average start, 17.3 average finish. Finished 22nd in March. Y-B7
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won in ‘04. Average finish of 9.1 in eight races since, not counting two DNFs (accident). Finished 11th in March. Y-B8
17. AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Average finish of 9.4 in three career Atlanta races (’07-’09). Y-C1
18. Kevin Harvick… Strong value play. Won as a rookie in ‘01. Average finish of 8.0 over the last three Atlanta races (’08 and 3/09). Finished fourth in March.
19. David Reutimann… Has never finished better than 20th at Atlanta. Average finish of 30.0 in four career starts.
20. Marcos Ambrose… DNF (engine) in March. Finished 29th in last year’s race, first career start at Atlanta. Finished 11th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y-C2
21. Joey Logano… Started 42nd, finished 30th in March, first career start at Atlanta.
22. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 24.5 in ‘08, DNF (accident) in March. Y-C3
23. Jeff Burton… Weak value play. Has finished 18th or better six straight Atlanta races. Average finish of 10.6 in that span.
24. Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Started third, finished 15th in March. Average finish of 19.8 in 14 career starts jumps to 9.8 when not counting five DNFS and non-led lap finishes.
25. Casey Mears… Weak value play. Has finished 17th or better four straight Atlanta races. Average finish of 14.3 in that span.
26. Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Average finish of 21.8 in 10 career starts jumps to 14.6 (two top 10s) when not counting four DNFS. Finished 10th in March.
27. David Ragan… Finished 19th in March, career best eighth place in last year’s October race.
28. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Last three Atlanta races: 36th in March (accident), 38th 10/08, 18th 10/07. Five career wins: ‘87 and sweeps in ‘85 and ‘92. Y-C4
29. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 6.0 in ‘07 at Atlanta, 35.0 in ‘08. Finished 33rd in March.
30. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 16.0 in ‘07 at Atlanta. DNF (accident) and 25th place in ‘08. Finished 20th in March.
31. Scott Speed… DNF (accident) in March race. Started and finished 24th last year, first career start at Atlanta.
32. Robby Gordon… Average finish of 23.0 over the last three Atlanta races.
33. David Stremme… Started 28th, finished 23rd in March.
34. Paul Menard… Average finish of 26.0 over the last three Atlanta races.
35. John Andretti… Average finish of 27.3 over the last three Atlanta races.
36. Michael Waltrip… Average finish of 30.6 over the last three Atlanta races.
37. Regan Smith… Average finish of 34.0 in two career Atlanta starts, both in ‘08.
38. Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. Started 10th, finished 20th in the March Truck race at Atlanta.
39. Erik Darnell… Very first career Cup start. Average career finish of 13.2 in six career Truck races at Atlanta, three top-10 finishes.
40. Patrick Carpentier… Started 21st, finished 35th in 3/08 race, first career start at Atlanta.
41. David Gilliland… Average finish of 27.6 over the last three Atlanta races.
42. Terry Labonte… No starts at Atlanta since ‘06.
43. Joe Nemechek… Average finish of 39.0 over the last three Atlanta races.
44. Dave Blaney… Average finish of 38.6 over the last three Atlanta races.
45. Tony Raines… Average finish of 31.0 over the last three Atlanta races.
46. Mike Bliss… Started and finished 43rd in March.

NASCAR Fantasy Experts Picks: Pep Boys 500 at Atlanta

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	8	7.33
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	5	8.08
Roger Rotter	FOX Sports	Kasey Kahne	1	10.63
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jeff Gordon	8	10.92
Dennis Michelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	36	11.00
Gerritt Ritt	FOX Sports	Tony Stewart	11	11.38
Yahoo Users	Yahoo! Sports	Carl Edwards	37	12.00
Cheryl Lauer	Speed Couch	Kurt Busch	38	12.04
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Mark Martin	5	12.50
Darren Fauth	Fantasy NASCAR Names	Kasey Kahne	1	13.08
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	5	13.54
Eric Brewer		Carl Edwards	37	13.63
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	8	14.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	36	15.08
Eric McGuire	FFToolbox	Jeff Gordon	8	16.08
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	37	17.54
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	37	18.17

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