• Home
• The Show
• The Crew
• Bench Racing
• Fast Lap
• Contact Us
• Advertise With Us

Subscribe

• NASCAR
• Sprint Cup
• Drivers
• Nationwide Series
• ARCA Remax Series
• NASCAR Headlines

Do What It Takes To Get By In Phoenix

First of all, my apologies for stretching the deadline here longer than Carl Edwards did at Texas. With 2 races left we may have a title race on our hands again, but it will be no picnic – Jimmie Johnson has won here and usually runs better than Edwards at this track. Then again, Johnson was the defending winner at Atlanta and Texas, so there you go. Jimmie won here in the spring as well, but had far from the best car, instead playing the fuel mileage game as the dominant car of Mark Martin played it safe. Last year at this race Jimmie solidified his advantage over teammate Jeff Gordon and in the process winning an incredible 4-race win streak.

The Chevys have been the car to beat at Phoenix in this race as each of the four winners since the inception of the Chase has piloted a Chevy to victory lane. Thus far in the Chase, some of the “rules” have been broken but some have remained the same. When the checkered falls Sunday evening, we’ll see if this one holds.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Kevin Harvick
2005 – Kyle Busch
2004 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 4th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 10th

Admittedly, this is not one of my favorite tracks to watch a race. For fantasy purposes, here is a list of 5 drivers to choose from. I’m taking Carl for the championship hunt, but feel free to choose one of the others – the winner will likely come from this list.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Kyle Busch

Jamie McMurray has been on a roll lately, and he should fare well at Phoenix too. I really like David Reutimann and A.J. Allmendinger this week. Reutimann ran great at Richmond, a track similar in many respects to Phoenix, and Allmendinger has been top 15 since he stepped into the #10 car.

The song this week comes from the Foo Fighters, their hit from one year ago “The Pretender.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Texas Follows Atlanta In More Ways Than One

Texas Motor Speedway has made the Chase more predictable. Immediately following Atlanta, just 2 races removed from Lowes, and with only Phoenix sandwiched in between it and Homestead, Texas serves as the place where the best remain on top - just ask the last 3 winners of the fall Atlanta race, as they’re in victory lane the very next week at Texas. For Carl Edwards, Tony Stewart, and Jimmie Johnson, they haven’t minded a bit.

It’s downright scary how similar these two tracks have been, and look at the finishing order in the top 5 for each of these races:

2005
Atlanta - Texas
1. Edwards - Edwards
2. Gordon - Martin
3. Martin - Kenseth
4. Earnhardt Jr. - Mears
5. Kenseth - Johnson

2006
Atlanta - Texas
1. Stewart - Stewart
2. Johnson - Johnson
3. Earnhardt Jr. - Harvick
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Biffle - Bowyer

2007
Atlanta - Texas
1. Johnson - Johnson
2. Edwards - Kenseth
3. Sorenson - Truex
4. Kenseth - Ky. Busch
5. Burton - Newman

The margins seem to be decreasing, but the winners have an uncanny knack for doubling up. Personally, I’d prefer the 2004 schedule to return in some way… Darlington took the penultimate spot in the Chase and Phoenix was third from the end. That’s my editorial soapbox. Let’s see where our champs finished:

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 6th

I went with Jimmie at Atlanta, and the end result was good fantasy-wise. Chase-wise, it was a bummer. Edwards did as much as he could to cut into the lead, slinging a car around the track and making the money move when it mattered. Not to mention that he flat dominated this race in the spring. However, I’m torn this week as I’d love to see the tradition continue for his sake, but I have a feeling it could be broken. I’d look for Carl and Jimmie to be strong again, but Denny Hamlin made an impressive run that could have easily landed him in the win column. I also expect to see Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, and Jeff Burton to be near the front after varying runs at Atlanta. This has been a Ford/Chevy battleground, and I see no reason for that to end.

Jamie McMurray could win here Sunday. In the last few weeks, the #26 has been on fire only to succumb to misfortune, whether it be parts failure or getting caught in a mess. He was fast at Lowes and ended strong at Atlanta, and is a smart sleeper pick. Another smart sleeper will be Juan Pablo Montoya. He had a piece at Atlanta as well. My third option would be AJ Allmendinger, unquestionably the best driver in the series without a full-time ride for 2009.

We’re going to delve down country music row for Texas. My pick this week is a perfect complement to the Texas moniker The Great American Speedway. It’s the Brooks & Dunn song “Only In America.”

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Handicapping the Chase Drivers: Atlanta Motor Speedway

I feel like a fool for picking Kyle Busch last week at Martinsville, when I had such obvious better choices in front of me (Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin… the list goes on). I take no consolation in the fact that I called them “easy” or “cop-out” picks, because the fact is that I should have gone with one of them. I’m not making that mistake again this weekend.

Atlanta may be the best track for the 12 Chase drivers overall, because the drivers with the top eight finishing averages at Atlanta (excluding active drivers and those with under five starts) are all eligible for the championship. Only one of them, Kevin Harvick, has an average finish worse than 20.0, and he started his Atlanta career 1-for-1 in one of the biggest upsets in NASCAR history. The bottom line is, since every Chaser is so good here, one has to examine momentum coming into the event before making any predictions. As has been most of the Chase, it’s all about who’s got the momentum.

Here’s what to expect from each of the 12 Chase drivers this week at Atlanta:

1. Jimmie Johnson: Nobody has more momentum going into the final four races of the season than Johnson, and everybody knows it. He won this race last year as part of a four-race winning streak that propelled him to his second consecutive championship. He’s also won four of the last eight races on the tour, including last week at Martinsville. He has the best average finish of active drivers at Atlanta, a 9.6. It’s getting old to write the same sorts of things about Johnson every week, so take this word of advice: Johnson has one of the best chances to win of anyone this weekend. (Duh.)

2. Greg Biffle: Da Biff had his second-best career finish at Martinsville last week, a lead-lap 12th. Given his abysmal track record there, the team’s spirits are high coming into Atlanta. He won the pole for this race last year and finished 4th here in the spring. In 2004 and 2005, when his team last performed at this level, his average finish was 7.0 in four starts. Another solid finish for Biffle seems to be in the cards, but will he continue to lose points to Johnson?

3. Jeff Burton: Usually 16.5 is a solid average finish at a track, but not when eight of your championship rivals rank ahead of you. Such is Burton’s predicament. He’s not helped by last week’s struggle, in which he wound up off the lead lap in 17th. A total of 13 top 10s and no DNFs at Atlanta since March 2003 are both good signs, but Burton also hasn’t led more than five laps in an Atlanta race since spring 1994, in his fifth career Sprint Cup start. A win is unlikely; a decent finish, however, isn’t out of the question.

4. Carl Edwards: Cousin Carl would have won at Atlanta this spring if not for engine troubles. He’s only finished outside the top 10 at Atlanta twice, and although both of those were finishes of 40th or worse, Edwards is generally a pretty reliable bet here. Edwards seems poised to regain momentum after a 3rd place finish at Martinsville, and he certainly has a chance to capture win no. 7 of the season at Atlanta.

5. Clint Bowyer: Clint has finished 6th in his past three starts at Atlanta, which makes him a reliable bet to finish well here again. He hasn’t finished any worse than 12th since Michigan, and although he hasn’t finished any better than 5th in that span of nine races, he’s been consistently towards the front. Don’t expect that to change for any reason.

6. Kevin Harvick: Here’s a shocker. Since his dramatic win in the spring of 2001 and a 3rd place finish that fall, Happy hasn’t finished in the top 5 at Atlanta. He didn’t even finish in the top 10 again until this spring. His average finish of 23.3 here is worst of all 12 Chase drivers. One reason for hope, however, is the fact that Harvick’s only finished outside the top 10 twice since the debacle at Indianapolis.

7. Jeff Gordon: It has been five years since Gordon’s won at Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean he’s been a slouch here. Gordon’s average finish at Atlanta in his past six starts is a fantastic 6.0. Gordon’s led significant amounts of laps the past two weeks as well, and his desire to avoid his first winless season since 1993 is probably at its peak. Gordon could surprise this weekend – although, if you look at the team’s performance the past two weeks, it shouldn’t be a surprise at all.

8. Tony Stewart: Smoke finished second here in the spring. Since the fall race in 2001, he’s only finished outside of the top 10 twice – a lead lap 17th in spring 2005 and a 30th in this race last year after losing oil pressure in the middle of the race. Most of Stewart’s momentum from Talladega is gone, however, after a 26th place run last week at Martinsville. Stewart should keep up his stout Atlanta record, but a win for the hometown sponsor might be a lot to ask.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junebug’s got a lot of momentum after having one of the strongest cars in the field at Martinsville. He has no chance at a championship, but he can certainly go out and steal some races from the contenders for the final month or so. His average finish of 8.7 in his past six starts here is certainly stout, and it would be higher if he didn’t crash late in this race last year and finish 25th. Important to note is that Earnhardt Jr. has four top 5s in those six starts, the best of which came at Atlanta in the spring. There’s no reason he can’t win this weekend.

10. Matt Kenseth: Kenseth’s average finish of 6.2 with four top 10s in his last six starts here is one of the best in the business. His Chase has been terrible, with Martinsville last week one of the lone bright spots, but that gives the team a push to do well in these final four races. Although Kenseth’s never won at Atlanta and has only led 12 laps here in the past six years, he knows how to get to the finish without too many issues.

11. Denny Hamlin: Atlanta is one of the few tracks in the Chase where Hamlin has not consistently run well over his brief career. An 8th place finish in this race two years ago is the brightest spot on a record that includes four finishes of 19th or worse. It’s important to note that while Hamlin has only failed to complete six laps in his career at Atlanta, he’s only finished on the lead lap once. You can’t win a race if you can’t finish on the lead lap.

12. Kyle Busch: Shrub’s record at Atlanta looks like his record at a few other tracks: Save a fantastic performance this spring, in which he won after leading 173 of 325 laps, he hasn’t done much in the way of top 10 finishes. However, he did lead 77 laps in this race last year, when he finished 20th. He also has three 12th place finishes, and has only failed to complete seven laps here since becoming a full-time Cup driver.

A brief aside: I feel really bad for Busch. Kyle’s 2008 has been one of the greatest seasons in NASCAR history, and the Chase format has robbed him of a chance to win his first well-earned championship. In this age of NASCAR parity, winning 20 out of the 73 races he’s contested in the face of adversity is quite the accomplishment. One can only hope that we’ll someday see another season this dominant (from a driver other than Jimmie Johnson, anyway – this sort of year seems to come naturally to him).

So who would I pick to win this weekend (other than Jimmie Johnson)? I have to go with Jeff Gordon. He’s got the same equipment as Johnson, he’s had a similar sort of career here, and he desperately wants to avoid a goose egg in the win column for this year.

The War Drums are Beating…

After the show last Sunday at Martinsville, the war drums have begun beating. Well, louder anyway. Can anyone stop Jimmie Johnson, Chad Knaus and the rest of the #48 team from streaking for a 3rd Championship in a row? Not to discount the effort, but it’s kind of like listening to the same song being played on the radio 100 times a day. Sure it was a treat in the beginning, but it gets old, and fast.

Apparently the television audience thought the same again this week, as the ratings were again lower than last year. Even though Jimmie Johnson pulled it out, with a mid to late stinking of the show, it was still a wail of a show. Bump bump… Coming through… and that was all day, including Saturday. But we’re not here to discuss that wacky Camping World Truck Series race. Not at all. What we’re here to discuss are the other 31 cars that were on the track at Martinsville, and will be out in full force at HotLanta this weekend.

Both Kurt Busch and Jamie McMurray had their loans at the Luck Bank called due. Honestly, I have no idea what happened to Kurt. He was there at the start, then he wasn’t. Finally caught that he was in the garage, thanks to the ol’ 454.000Mhz, but I missed out on the what.

Then Jamie got bit by the busted rear axle bug while running very strong inside the Top-10, pushing the Top-5. But hey, I have good news, and it has absolutely nothing to do with car insurance. Looks like a reunion with your buddy Donnie Wingo is in the cards. Now go drive the wheel off that thing.

Then there was Casey Mears. Casey put the hammer down, slammed that chrome horn, and brought it home with a very solid 6th place finish. Not bad at all there, “New Pop”, even though 3 of the Top-5 went to your teammates it was still one impressive run.

So now we’re rolling a little further south, down for some hot, fast laps at Atlanta. Or as we sometimes lovingly refer to it in the depths of Thunder Lounge, the fall test session for Texas.

So who are we going to get into the Top-10 here, that isn’t trying to dethrone Johnsonpalooza?

Roush cars typically run well here, and Jamie McMurray is out for justice. Speaking of being out for justice, look for Brian Vickers to make a play and possibly be in the Top-10 at the end of the day. After getting a massive switch to the butt from NASCAR yesterday, that whole organization is out to prove they’re legit.

Finally, my third selection for the upcoming weekend. I’m going to throw a bone to none other than the 2000 Winston Cup Champion, Bobby Labonte. He knows what he needs at this track, and his resume here is quite impressive and includes 6 wins. For this type of track, he’s rolling with 17 wins, 78 Top-5’s, and 119 Top-10’s. Even the Petty slump can’t keep his bite out of Georgia.

Dark horse? Throw the love to Beak. David Reutimann was pretty good at Martinsville. Until late trouble bit him, he’d been in the Top-10 all day.

Speaking of things MWR and Martinsville. I caught Mikey coming out the back of the Toyota Fan Experience by chance. A little boy all decked out in Mikey gear (hat, jacket and all) that couldn’t have been more then 7 saw him too. He took off on a dead beat run towards the golf cart as they began to pull away. As pressed for time as these drivers are these days, Mikey made them stop the cart, and he took the time to sign the boys jacket and give him a quick squeeze. The way that kids face lit up was priceless. While it’s not just Michael, this is a true representation of our sport at heart. Good people, who just happen to be blessed with making a living doing something most of us can only dream of.

So now that the heartburn is clearing up from all those famous Martinsville hotdogs, just in time to hit the barbecue in Texas next week, we find ourselves in anxious wait to see whether or not Goodyear brings the right tire to Atlanta this time, and whether or not we’ll have a show. Just in case the tire is off a bit, bring something better to the Lone Star state, okay guys?

Atlanta Motor Speedway: Only the Top Teams Need Apply

G’wan home you guys. That’s what the stats are saying to all but the members of NASCAR’s 2008 royalty. That being the cars and drivers of Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Roush-Fenway and Richard Childress. All others are mear pretenders to the Sprint Cup throne, at least for this race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The top ten Loop Driver Ratings all belong to members of those four teams. DEI pilots, Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr come in 11th and 12th with the Dodges of Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch right behind them. But the talent of the big four teams looks too tuned-in to AMS to be upset by those guys. It would be a huge surprise.

General Johnson’s March Through Georgia

Once again, Jimmy Johnson holds most of the Loop cards. There are 16 categories that make up the Loop Data Box Score. Jimmy has the top stat in 11 of those columns for Atlanta. Significantly Johnson holds the edge in Ave Position and Finish - 6.6 and 5.9. He has led more laps - 326 for 14.3 percent - and run the most Laps in the Top 15 - 2142 for 94.0 percent. His number one Driver Rating is 113.4. J J has the top season-to-date Driver Rating too, at 107.2.

The next four guys in the Atlanta Loop all have Driver Ratings of 102.3 or better. So Johnson won’t have the track to himself Sunday. Both Tony Stewart and Dale Earnhardt Jr are past winners at AMS and have the second and third DRs - 104.4 and 103.6. Stewart has led 318 laps - 14.0 percent and just behind Johnson. Junior is right there with 299 laps led. Ave Finishes of 9.4 for Smoke and 10.9 for Junior are significantly behind Johnson.

The Challenge of the Roushketeers

The two Roush-Fenway drivers who most closely chase Jimmy Johnson in the Chase are Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle. Edwards year-to-date Driver Rating is second only to Johnson at 105.4. His AMS rating is fourth at 102.8 and he has 2nd best 197 Fastest Laps Run. Carl is a two-time winner at Atlanta and is typically Roush strong on the fast mile-and-a-half tracks.

Greg Biffle has the fifth best DR - 102.3 - second best Ave Running Position and Laps in the Top 15 percentage - 9.8 and 83.4 percent - and series high 211 Fastest Laps Run. But Biffle is win-less at AMS as are Chasers Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth (Driver Ratings - 92.8 and 94.1). But all three drivers are very capable on intermediate tracks.

Jeff Gordon has only four races left in which to claim his first win of 2008. Gordon has an amazing string of 14 straight years with at least two wins. Time is running out but Atlanta could get him started on an end of season run. He has four wins at AMS, is the sixth rated driver in the Loop Stats. 

Twenty One Anyone?

Kyle Busch has twenty NASCAR major wins in 2008. It’s been awhile since he scored in the Cup Series, though he still has the third season-to-date Driver Rating at 104.2. Kyle was the winner the last time we went to Atlanta and AMS has produced plenty of sweeps over the years. Carl Edwards was the last to pull it off. But Kyle’s teammate, Denny Hamlin, claimed that the Hendrick Motorsports’ cars have an advantage on what Joe Gibbs Racing is fielding right now. I believe him.

The pick, this week is Dale Earnhardt Jr - Jimmy Johnson can’t win them all, can he? - with a dark-horse shout out to DEI’s Regan Smith.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

When Jimmie Goes Down To Georgia

I’m shameless, really. When it comes to NASCAR, Jimmie Johnson has become Mr. October in nearly every sense. While he’ll never be Reggie Jackson, he has been incredible in the October Chase races, which have used Atlanta as the bookend. Every year this race focuses mainly on the Chase drivers and some of the great racing is missed. Maybe ABC will take a cue from that and show the race.

Chase drivers tend to mix in with other drivers at Atlanta, I’ve noticed. Tony Stewart won in 2006, when he also won at Kansas and just aimed for wins during the Chase. One of my favorite victory lane moments came here in that race, when Stewart climbed the fence to celebrate, mingled with the fans in the stands, then told the interviewer that the hat he was wearing came from a fan that gave it to him – one of those old hats that was torn from use, not for design. I felt compelled to share that right here. Equipment will be something to watch here as it really strains the engine. Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton, and Carl Edwards will all hope for something like that to happen.

The winners:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson
2006 – Tony Stewart
2005 – Carl Edwards
2004 – Jimmie Johnson

Champs finish:
2007 – Jimmie Johnson – 1st
2006 – Jimmie Johnson – 2nd
2005 – Tony Stewart – 9th
2004 – Kurt Busch – 42nd

I’ve started the last 2 race winners and they’ve delivered 2 wins. Hey, I think I’m getting the hang of this! It’s so tempting to say Jimmie Johnson 12 times and be done with it, but…

JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON
JIMMIE JOHNSON

Or go with Carl Edwards or Greg Biffle. At this point, they’re still the ones in position to make a move if the #48 ends up having trouble.

I desperately want David Ragan to win a race this season. His spring race here wasn’t great, but he has had a lot of solid runs on the intermediate tracks. Plus, it makes for a great story in addition the Chase coverage. As a backup, I’ll take Brian Vickers.

“The Devil Went Down To Georgia” by the incomparable Charlie Daniels Band is the song for this week. I guess the golden fiddle is the Sprint Cup and the devil is either Mike Helton or Brian France as they deal the cards.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Chasers Rule at Atlanta: Someone has to Suck

The top ten drivers in NASCAR Loop Data stats for the past seven Atlanta Motor Speedway Sprint Cup races are all 2008 Chase to the Cup qualifiers.

The top five all have Driver Ratings above 100. 100 is very good.

Jimmy Johnson leads ‘em out - surprise! - with a score of 113.4. Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle take it down to 102.3. The next five, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Clint Bowyer and Kyle Busch span 96.6 to 88.5. There are no Atlanta slouches in the whole group.

Denny Hamlin has the 15th best Driver Rating and it’s still pretty close at 83.5. Kevin Harvick though, looks like the relative red-headed step child of the bunch. Harvick’s DR is 74.5, with an Ave Finish of 22.9.

Harvick and Hamlin are the only chasers with negative Passing Differentials. Harvick has led only 11 laps and Hamlin but 19 (though Jeff Burton has the lowest total of the chasers with three.) The top five have led a total of 1387 - 60.8 percent of all laps in the last seven races.

Surprisingly, Bobby Labonte, who at one time not long ago owed Atlanta Motor Speedway, has a Dr of only 65.7 and an Ave Finish of 27.1. I used to pick Labonte every time the Cuppers went to AMS. Worked out pretty good for a number of seasons. Ryan Newman has a Series best Ave Start of 6.1 and finish of 22.7 during the Loop era. So much for qualifying. And for a driver with the reputation of being fast on fast tracks that Michael Waltrip has, Mikey looks bad at AMS - DR of 61.0, one Lap Led and Ave Finish at 18.7.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, Inc.

Atlanta is the True SuperSpeedway

Atlanta Motor Speedway may not be the biggest track on the Cup circuit but it consistantly is the fastest.

The speedway located twenty miles south of Atlanta is a 1.54-mile quad-oval track with a seating capacity of over 125,000. It opened in 1960 as a 1.5 mile standard oval. In 1994, 46 condominiums wwere built over the northeastern side of the track.  In 1997 the entire track was completely rebuilt with the frontstrech and backstretch being swapped.  The configuration of the track was changed from a symmetrical oval to quad-oval with five degrees of banking on the straights and 24 degrees in the turns; making the track the fastest on the NASCAR  circuit.

Geoffrey Bodine holds the qualifying record at 197.478 mph in 1997.  Dale Earnhardt holds the record for most wins (9) and most top 5 finishes (26).  Buddy Baker and Ryan Newman are tied for most poles won at seven.  Richard Petty logs in with the most starts at Atlanta with 65.

The early years at Atlanta were wrought with financial strife and less than adaquite ammenities.  The purchase by Bruton Smith’s Speedway Motorsports ended those problems as constant upgrades have improved the facility to a position of one of NASCAR’s premier venues.

Five of the last eight races have been won by Chase contenders Jimmy Johnson and Carl Edwards.  Look for them to be strong on Sunday.

photo credit: Icon Sports Media

Copyright © 2008 Bench Racing Productions, LLC. · All rights reserved.
Content may not be duplicated, or redistributed without express written permission.

OnPitRow.com | Bench Racing | Fast Lap | About Us | Contact Us
Terms Of Use | Privacy Policy | Advertise with us!