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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: AdvoCare 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Mark Martin	17	10.92
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kasey Kahne	34	15.52
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	David Ragan	35	17.20
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	12	14.80
Eric McClung	KFFL	Marcos Ambrose	21	15.60
Eric McGuire	free agent	Denny Hamlin	8	14.28
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Denny Hamlin	8	14.68
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	17	13.72
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	No Pick	44	25.52
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Marcos Ambrose	21	21.56
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	A J Allmendiger	10	17.04
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	8	10.96
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	10	15.08
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	8	14.72
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	12	13.96
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Denny Hamlin	8	11.40
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Denny Hamlin	8	14.52
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	A J Allmendinger	10	16.24
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Mark Martin	17	14.36

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: AdvoCare 500 from Atlanta

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Matt Kenseth	9	14.12
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	2	14.24
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Matt Kenseth	9	13.28
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	9	11.64
Eric McClung	KFFL	Matt Kenseth	9	13.24
Eric McGuire	free agent	Matt Kenseth	9	15.64
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.00
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	23	15.48
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pic	44	25.04
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Brad Keselowski	6	12.68
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jeff Gordon	1	11.96
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	23	15.24
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	1	11.36
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	5	11.32
James Jones	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	9	11.96
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jeff Gordon	1	12.80
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Matt Kenseth	9	9.52
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	23	12.40
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	14.32

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Atlanta - Advocare 500

For the first time since the Sprint Cup Series started racing here, this will be the first and last race at Atlanta Motor Speedway this season. As you probably remember from off-season changes, the second Atlanta race was dropped (in response to requests by owner Bruton Smith) so that Kentucky Speedway–also owned by Smith–would be able to host an event for the top series in NASCAR. Atlanta is a 1.54-mile quad-oval race track with 24-degree banking in the turns and just 5-degree banking on the straightaways. Charlotte Motor Speedway has the exact same banking and is a 1.5-mile quad-oval, so I will be looking back at that race often in this article as well as some of the other intermediate track results. Surprisingly, no driver has a career average finish here better than 10th.

During The Last Race At Atlanta…Back in September of last season, Tony Stewart led 176 of the 325 laps and grabbed his first victory of the 2010 season. Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Burton, and Kyle Busch rounded out the top five that day. Polesitter Denny Hamlin led 74 laps but an engine problem ended his day early and in 43rd place. In the March race at this track, Kurt Busch put the Blue Deuce in victory lane with Matt Kenseth, Juan Montoya, Kasey Kahne, and Paul Menard following him to the line. Kurt Busch and Montoya were the only two drivers that were able to post top 10s in both Atlanta races last season.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Advocare 500:

1. Jimmie Johnson - Although his average finish at Atlanta is 10.4, Jimmie Johnson’s is the best of anyone in the series here. The five-time champion has won three times at this 1.54-mile track and his average driver rating of 104.6 over the past four races here is fifth-best in the series. I still think this team is going to get another win before the Chase starts, and they are really starting to click lately, with four straight top 10s and three of them being in the top 4. In the last two cookie cutter races–Kentucky and Michigan–Johnson has finished 3rd and 2nd, and he finished 3rd here at Atlanta last September.

2. Matt Kenseth - This team has prepared a brand new chassis for this race on Saturday night, and if you look back at what has happened this season, that’s bad news for the rest of the field. At Texas and Dover–in April and May, respectively–Kenseth had a new chassis and visited victory lane both times. That’s not saying he’s a guaranteed lock for a victory on Saturday night, but with eleven straight finishes of 13th or better at Atlanta, you know he’s going to be in the running for the win. By the way: of those eleven straight, six have been top 5s.

3. Kyle Busch - Rowdy’s record isn’t stellar here by any means, but he’s been great on the intermediate tracks this season and that shouldn’t change this weekend. As you probably remember, Busch won at Michigan a few weeks ago and also dominated at Kentucky back in July after finishing 3rd in the first Michigan race. Kyle has started in the top 5 in each of the last three Atlanta races but has just one good finish to show for it (a 5th last September). He has just three top 10s in thirteen starts at this 1.54-mile track, but remember that he won here in 2008 after leading 173 laps and could very well find himself bowing to the crowd for the fifth time this season on Saturday night.

4. Jeff Gordon - With all of the success the next driver in my rankings is having recently (hint: his initials are BK), Gordon’s hot streak has been a little overshadowed. In the last three months, though, Jeff hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 and has just one result worse than 13th. He also has top 10 finishes in the two most recent cookie cutter races (Michigan and Kentucky), but Gordon struggled at Atlanta in 2010, with finishes of 18th and 13th. Before that, though, he had five straight top 10s here, and with his history here (four wins and twenty-three top 10s in thirty-seven races) I don’t see Jeff Gordon finishing any place near his results last season at this track.

5. Brad Keselowski - I’m not going to say much about BK this week–you know the streak he’s on, and not picking him would be like going against Jimmie Johnson during the Chase. At Atlanta, his finishes haven’t been great, bur Keselowski’s best finish at Bristol before his win last weekend was 13th. History doesn’t matter when a driver and team are running like this. Remember though: Keselowski was looking like a top ten car here last March before Carl tried to kill him.

6. Kurt Busch - Kurt has been in a slump lately (one top 10 in the last five Sprint Cup races) but he’s coming to a track that has been kind to him lately. The elder Busch brother has the second-best average driver rating at Atlanta over the last four races here and has led the most laps (373) over that span as well, which includes two victories, a 6th-place finish, and a 38th. He actually had a perfect driver rating (150.0) during his win in March of 2009 here, where Kurt led 234 of the 330 laps after starting 2nd. Since 2006, Kurt has finished outside of the top 15 just once at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

7. Denny Hamlin - In the last four Atlanta races, Denny Hamlin has the third-best average driver rating of all drivers despite posting just one top 10 finish. He has also led at least 23 laps in each of the last three events here. Do you know what that says? Hamlin runs well here, but doesn’t get the finish. With the Chase looming, Hamlin should be on his A-game Saturday night and with a new TRD engine under the hood, I wouldn’t be worried about any engine problems like he has experienced before on the bigger tracks this year. In eleven starts at Atlanta, only two races have ended with Hamlin having a driver rating of less that 88.8, yet he only has three top 10s.

8. Carl Edwards - Carl broke out of his little slump last weekend with a top 10 at Bristol, but was the really the run that put them back on the map? He was favored to win that race by many people yet led only two laps and finished 9th. This team hasn’t really been on top of its game since June and I don’t see them as a top 5 car going into the race. That may change once practice and qualifying is over with, though, so be sure to check out my post-qualifying Predictions at ifantasyrace.com. Edwards has made thirteen starts at Atlanta and has four finishes of 37th or worse. In the nine other races, though, Carl has three wins, two 2nd-place finishes, two 3rd-place finishes, and two 7th-place finishes.

9. Ryan Newman - Over the last seven Sprint Cup races, “The Rocketman” has quietly notched five top 10s and a worst finish of 16th. In the most recent cookie cutter events, Newman has finished 5th and 6th in the two Michigan races and came home 4th at Kentucky. He also looked good at the intermediates earlier this year–which was surprising–with top 5s at both Las Vegas and California. At Atlanta, Newman has two top 10s in his last three starts and he won every single pole here from 2003 through 2005 (six races!). He won’t win on Saturday night but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Flyin’ Ryan grab another top 10 and clinch his spot in the Chase.

10. Tony Stewart - This is one pick that could very easily change a whole bunch of positions in my rankings once practice and qualifying are over with. Smoke’s comments about his team didn’t help much at all last weekend at Bristol, as the #14 Chevrolet came home in 28th place, but Atlanta is a track where this team could get a boost and head into the Chase (or stumble once again). In twenty-four career starts here, Stewart has twenty top 20 finishes–with fourteen of those being top 10s–and has visited victory lane three times. Smoke is also the most recent race winner here and his most recent cookie cutter finishes include a 7th and 9th at the two Michigan races and a 12th-place effort in Kentucky.

11. Kasey Kahne - If this team makes no mistakes this weekend has the #4 Toyota has speed, Kasey Kahne could visit victory lane on Saturday night. However, we all know how under-performing this Red Bull team has been all season and with just two of their eight top 10s on the season coming at cookie cutter tracks, it’s hard to say they are a flat out favorite this week. In the last four Atlanta races, though, Kasey has the best average driver rating and has three top 10s, including a win in 2009, which was his second at this 1.54-mile track. He’s hit-or-miss here, though, so be cautious: in fourteen starts here, Kahne has eight top 10s and six finishes of 28th or worse.

12. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - I personally think Dale Junior is already a lock for the Chase, but because it’s still mathematically possible that he misses it, the talking heads at ESPN and ABC will continue to blab about him all race (unfortunately for us). That being said, I don’t think Junior will push the issue on Saturday night, and if he can post a solid top 15, I think he will be alright with that and feel confident in his Chase chances. He has one victory at Atlanta–which came back in 2004–but hasn’t finished better than 11th here in five races. This Chevrolet has been a mid-teen car for the last month and a half, and I don’t see that changing much. Believe it or not, Earnhardt has just one top 10 in the last ten Sprint Cup races, and that was a 9th at Pocono.

13. Greg Biffle - It’s a cookie cutter track, that should be a lock for Biffle and the Roush crew to all get top 10s, right!? Not so fast. Greg has nine top 10s here in sixteen starts and an average finish of 16.3. He has never won here and of those nine top 10s, only three have been top 5s. He has two top 10s over the last two years here but also two finishes outside of the top 30. Also, the last three intermediate races have ended with Biffle in 20th, 21st, and 15th (Michigan, Kentucky, and Michigan again). If this team struggles to find speed in practice, expect to find the #16 Ford on my avoid list on Saturday.

14. Juan Montoya - Believe it or not, JPM has three straight top 10s at this track. Many believe that this will be the site of his first oval win, and I could see that happening, but not this weekend. Could a top 15 be provided by the #42 Chevrolet on Saturday night, though? It’s certainly possible. If he qualifies in the top 10 or so, I’d consider Juan this weekend. If not, just pass; his momentum coming into this race is less than stellar, anyway: Montoya has five finishes of 19th or worse in the last month and a half.

15. Marcos Ambrose - Marcos has scored the ninth-most points of anyone in the series over the last three Sprint Cup races and has had some decent runs at Atlanta recently. Last March, he finished 11th after starting 12th, and Marcos came back in September and posted his first top 10 at this 1.54-mile track despite starting the race in 32nd. He has been a 20s type of driver in recent cookie cutter races, though, so make sure you keep an eye on Ambrose in practice.

Those To Avoid Entering The Advocare 500:

Kevin Harvick - To say this team is struggling is an understatement. The #29 Chevrolet has looked good over the past month or two in practice, but has really disappointed fantasy owners on race day, with just one top 10 in the last seven Sprint Cup races. He won the race at Charlotte, but you have to remember that fuel mileage was a factor, and he spent much of that race outside of the top 15. Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races at Atlanta but his career average finish here of 20.5 is nothing to ride home about. Going into the race, Harvick is a mid-teens driver at best, and fantasy championships aren’t won picking those guys.

David Reutimann - Reutty is at his best on these intermediate race tracks but Atlanta is a completely different story for him. He has a 4th-place finish to his name that came back in 2009, but in his other six starts here, Reutimann has a best finish of 16th and has cracked the top 20 just twice. His only top 10s of this 2011 season have came at Charlotte and Kentucky, but other than those two races this #00 team has been sub-par at best on the ovals.

David Ragan - Statistically, this is David’s fifth-worst track on the circuit, with a career average finish of 25.6. He posted an 8th-place finish in October of 2008, but other than that, his Ragan’s best finish in Atlanta has been 19th, which he has accomplished twice. In eight career starts here, half of them have ended with him outside of the top 30. Ragan has an average finish of almost 22nd since the race at Kentucky, which came after his win in Daytona.

Paul Menard - It’s going to be slim picking this week for the Yahoo! fantasy racers in the C-division. Menard has a 5th-place finish to his name at Atlanta, but other than that, he has just one additional top 10 at the 1.54-mile race track in eight other starts. In that race that Menard came home 5th, he had a driver rating of 88.7, which was good enough for just 12th-best in that race. He finished 29th at Charlotte and the last two “cookie cutter” races (Michigan and Kentucky) have ended with Paul in 26th and 24th position, respectively.

Joey Logano - “Sliced Bread” just can’t seem to get a hold of this place. In four career starts, Joey’s best finish has been 22nd and he has yet to finish on the lead lap. His qualifying efforts aren’t much better here, either, as Logano’s best start at Atlanta was 29th in the spring race last season. You may have guessed it, but statistically this is his second-worst track on the schedule. He posted a 3rd-place finish at Charlotte this season, but Logano’s driver rating of his 71.5 in that race shows that he wasn’t even a top 20 car, which has been the type of intermediate driver he has been all season.

Scouting Report: Atlanta

How to make an informed Fantasy Pick at Atlanta

1) Studying practice will take you a long way in your quest for making an informed fantasy pick for the Adcocare 500. This week fantasy racers will be able to see practice sessions before they sign the dotted line and are committed to their fantasy pick. There’s long runs at Atlanta so picking a driver who’s good over the many laps is all the more important. Last year in this race the first caution flag didn’t come out until lap 134.

2) Studying recent intermediate track races should also be a focal point for you. Michigan and Kentucky aren’t shaped like Atlanta but it doesn’t mean there isn’t fantasy value there. Remember your a fantasy racer and not a geometry teacher.

3) Past Atlanta success is a good indicator for future Atlanta success. It’s an engineering aero track so you don’t want to dig to deep into the past. I wouldn’t go back anymore than 2008 (COT era).

4) Picking drivers who qualify good here shouldn’t be a must. Drivers who qualify good often finish well, but I think it’s because their good teams.

Five Drivers To Watch in the Atlanta Advocare 500

Jimmie Johnson – This three time Atlanta winner has the best average finish (7.7) in the Sprint Cup series since 2004. Last summer he finished third and led 8 laps. In the two most recent intermediate track races Johnson has finished third (Kentucky) and second (Michigan)

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has had highs and lows at Atlanta. He won the first COT race in 2008 and in 2009 he essentially raced his way out of the Chase. Kyle Busch will unquestionably be a top contender in the Atlanta Advocare 500. Last year in the night race he finished 5th but he may very well of had the best car. He had an early pit road speeding penalty that was a major setback. Here’s his Yahoo! race chart from last years race. Kyle Busch is two for two in the last two intermediate track races (Won Michigan and Kentucky).

Carl Edwards – In the summer night race last year Edwards finished second to Tony Stewart. In the spring race he was involved in “an incident” that scared people in the first few rows. In his fully completed races he’s as good as gold here. Edwards has three wins at Atlanta.

Matt Kenseth – There’s not a steadier driver at Atlanta then Matt Kenseth. He’s never won at this fast track but he did finish second last spring. Since the summer 2005 race Matt Kenseth hasn’t finished worse than 13th. In the last four intermediate track races this year he’s come home with finishes of 6th (Kansas), 2nd (Michigan), 6th (Kentucky), and 10th (Michigan 2).

Jeff Gordon – Despite being winless at Atlanta since 2003 look for Jeff Gordon to be a venerable competitor in the Advocare 500. Gordon finished in the teens in both races last year but I think he’ll be extremely competitive Sunday night. Historically Atlanta has always been good for him. He has four wins and twenty three top tens. His average start is 12.6 and his average finish is 12.5.

To see the rest of my rankings check out my Atlanta Fantasy Preview

Sleepers for Atlanta

Brad Keselowski - No one can go wrong by picking Brad this week. Right now he’s looking unstoppable on the track and Tony Stewart should be very concerned about being bumped from the top ten from the 2 team. Last year in the spring Atlanta race Brad had a top six car but Carl Edwards had revenge on his mind.

Marcos Ambrose - Marcos Ambrose is a solid sleeper who’s well below nearly everyone’s radar this week. He’s been strong all year long on similar tracks. This year on 1.5 mile tracks he finished 4th at Vegas, sixth at Texas, and sixth at Charlotte. Last year at Atlanta he finished 10th and 11th. The 9 car has a strong history of success at Atlanta and last year in the spring race Kahne led 144 laps.

VegasInsider.com Odds to win at Atlanta:

Kyle Busch 5/1, Jimmie Johnson 6/1, Kevin Harvick 6/1, Denny Hamlin 7/1, Jeff Gordon 9/1, Tony Stewart 10/1, Carl Edwards 10/1, Kurt Busch 12/1, Matt Kenseth 12/1, Brad Keselowski 14/1, Kasey Kahne 16/1, Dale Earnhardt Jr. 18/1

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com momentum over the last five races:

1)Brad Keselowski 2)Kyle Busch 3)Jeff Gordon 4)Jimmie Johnson 5)Ryan Newman 6)Matt Kenseth 7)Martin Truex Jr. 8)Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9)Jamie McMurray 10)AJ Allmendinger

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center

Pre Race Loop Data Book

Stats for the last five races at Atlanta

Atlanta Statistical Advance

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Emory Healthcare 500 from Atlanta

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Kevin Harvick	33	16.68
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	3	11.12
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	13	10.72
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Jimmie Johnson	3	12.80
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	6	14.92
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jeff Gordon	13	12.76
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kurt Busch	6	9.84
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	36	14.20
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kurt Busch	6	15.40
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	12.00
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	3	10.20
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	36	16.28
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Kurt Busch	6	13.28
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	5	13.60
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	6	14.72
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	12.16
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jeff Gordon	13	12.76
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	13	11.88
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Carl Edwards	2	17.32

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Emory Healthcare 500

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	15	14.56
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	32	12.80
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Juan Pablo Montoya	9	20.88
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.68
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr	22	14.56
Jerry LaggerEric McGuire	One and Done Game WinnerFree agent	Dale Earnhardt JrDale Earnhardt Jr	2222	13.6013.40
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	32	14.12
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Ryan Newman	8	10.00
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	David Reutimann	16	11.48
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jamie McMurray	15	12.56
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Kasey Kahne	32	13.40
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Kasey Kahne	32	13.68
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	9	13.72
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	32	19.16
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	David Reutimann	16	12.08
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jamie McMurray	15	15.32
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	18	19.48
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jamie McMurray	15	10.48

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Emory Healthcare 500 Motor Speedway

The return trip to Atlanta Motor Speedway is a great time for fantasy owners to take advantage of the three races held on 1.5-mile tracks with 24 degrees of corner banking. Texas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway have also hosted one event each, so I’ve put together another Fantasy Tool to highlight the best finishers from those races and provided a link to last year’s version.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2010 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

Chasing the pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway

1. Juan Pablo Montoya… Started third in March at Atlanta, fourth last September. Has started 10th or better seven of the last eight this season with two poles.
2. Kasey Kahne… Started from the outside pole last September at Atlanta, sixth last March.
3. Kurt Busch… Started second and sixth last year, 11th in March.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings:

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Kurt Busch… Three-time winner (3/10, 3/09, 10/02) at Atlanta, has won two of the last three with an average of 181.5 laps led. Y!-A1
2. Kasey Kahne… Two-time winner (9/09, 3/06) at Atlanta- led 144 laps in March, finished fourth. Y!-B1
3. Jeff Gordon… Four-time winner (10/03, 3/99, 11/98, 3/95) at Atlanta, eight Top 10s in the last 10 starts- four Top Fives, runner-up twice. Y!-A2
4. Denny Hamlin… Average running position of eighth or better in five of the last six starts at Atlanta, has led 23 or more laps in three of the last four. Y!-A3
5.  Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner (’07 sweep, 10/04) at Atlanta, has never held an average running position worse than 13th- led at least 11 laps in three of the last four. Y!-A4
6. Kevin Harvick… Won 3/01 race at Atlanta, average finish of 8.3 in the last six starts. Y!-B2
7. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner (10/08, ‘05 sweep) at Atlanta, average running position of 11th or better in eight of the last 11 starts- ran fifth or better four times. Y!-A5
8. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 6.7 in the last 10 starts at Atlanta, finished second in March. Y!-B3
9. Greg Biffle… Four Top 10s in the last five starts at Atlanta. Y!-A6
10. Kyle Busch… Won race 3/08 at Atlanta, average running position of ninth or better in four of the last six. Led an average of 23.0 of laps in the last two, finished 13th and 23th. Y!-A7
11. Juan Pablo Montoya… Third-place finishes in two straight starts at Atlanta. Y!-A8
12. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (10/06, 3/02) at Atlanta, average finish of 12.3 in the last four starts- one Top 10.
13. Clint Bowyer… Sixth-place finish in four of nine career starts at Atlanta, 20th or worse in the other five. Y!-B4
14. David Reutimann… Finished a career-best fourth last September at Atlanta, was running seventh in March before an engine failure. Y!-B5
15. Jeff Burton… Only one Top 15 in the last four starts at Atlanta. Y!-B6
16. A.J. Allmendinger… Finished a career-best sixth in March at Atlanta, average running position of 11th. Y!-C1
17. Martin Truex Jr…. Average running position of 15th or better in eight straight starts at Atlanta, only two Top 10s. Y!-B7
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 3/04 race at Atlanta, average finish of 13.5 in the last four. Y!-B8
19. Mark Martin… Two-time winner (11/94, 11/91) at Atlanta, average finish of 26.0 in the last the last six- one Top 10, finished fifth last September.
20. Jamie McMurray… Average finish of 20.9 in 16 career starts at Atlanta.
21. Paul Menard… Finished a career-best fifth in March at Atlanta, average running position of 15th. Y!-C2
22. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 20.0 in the last 12 starts at Atlanta, only one Top 10.
23. Marcos Ambrose… Finished a career-best sixth in March at Atlanta, average running position of 15th.
24. Joey Logano… Average finish of 29.0 in three career starts at Atlanta.
25. Brad Keselowski… DNF (crash) in March at Atlanta, average running position of 15th.
26. Scott Speed… Finished a career-best 10th in March at Atlanta, average running position of 19th. Y!-C3
27. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Five-time winner (’92 sweep, 11/87, ‘85 sweep) at Atlanta, finished 16th in March. Y!-C4
28. Bobby Labonte… Long shot value play. Six-time winner (3/03, 11/01, 11/99, 3/98, 11/97, 11/96) at Atlanta, average finish of 20.0 in the last two.
29. Regan Smith… Finished a career-best 14th in March at Atlanta, average running position of 28th.
30. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 22.3 in 23 career starts at Atlanta.
31. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 24.7 in nine career starts at Atlanta.
32. David Ragan… Average finish of 26.6 in seven career starts at Atlanta.
33. David Gilliland… Average finish of 26.9 in eight career starts at Atlanta.
34. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 29.8 in five career starts at Atlanta, has never finished on the lead lap.
35. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 32.0 in eight career starts at Atlanta, has never finished on the lead lap.
36. Dave Blaney… Driving for Front Row Motorsports. Finished 34th in last non-start and park race at Atlanta (3/08).
37. Kevin Conway… Finished 31st in March, first career Cup start at Atlanta.
38. Patrick Carpentier… Finished 35th in only career Cup start at Atlanta (3/08).
39. Jason Leffler… Possible start and park. First Cup start since ‘08, first at Atlanta since ‘05.
40. Casey Mears… Likely start and park.
41. Scott Riggs… Likely start and park.
42. Landon Cassill… Likely start and park.
43. Todd Bodine… Likely start and park.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
45. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
46. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park. Two straight DNQs.
47. J.J. Yeley… Likely start and park. Three straight DNQs.

Contender or Pretender: Atlanta 2

Kurt Busch (Contender) – Kurt Busch has won the last two Atlanta spring races and in the COT era he’s been phenomenal. In the five Atlanta COT races he has the second best driver rating (109.6), and he’s led an average of 75 laps per race.

Kurt Busch has also proven himself on other similar tracks this season (Charlotte and Texas). His average finish on quad oval tracks for the year is second. In 2002 Kurt Busch won a rain delayed race at Atlanta that ended under the lights.

Jimmie Johnson (Pretender) – Besides Jimmie Johnson’s lack of luck and momentum at the moment Atlanta really hasn’t been a good place for Johnson in the COT. Almost all of Jimmie Johnson’s success at Atlanta came in the old car. In the five COT races Jimmie has only finished in the top ten twice. In 2008 Johnson finished second but that was largely the product of fresh tires at the end of the race, not because his car was that good.

Carl Edwards (Contender) – With the continued reemergence of Roush Racing Carl Edwards will certainly play into the mix for the win. He’s always been very successful at this track and knows his way to victory lane. Edwards has had some bad recent finishes at Atlanta but don’t let that scare you off.

Mark Martin (Pretender) – Where can you trust Mark Martin now? My answer would be nowhere until he gets a streak of good finishes going. In the last three Atlanta races Martin has an average start of fourth but don’t get suckered in just because of that. His average running position in these races is 14th and his average finish is 23rd.

Kasey Kahne (Contender) – Kasey Kahne is the defending champion of this race. Last year he started second and ran in the top five for almost the entire race. Even though Kasey Kahne didn’t win the spring race this year he still managed to have the best driver rating (138.1). His quad oval average finish for the year is seventh.

Ryan Newman (Pretender) – If you like qualifying you’ll like Ryan Newman. At one point in his career he won six straight poles at Atlanta. Last year Ryan Newman finished 9th, but to find his next Atlanta top ten you have to look all the way back to 2004.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Kobalt Tools 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway

With eight of the same drivers making up the Top 10 in two straight races, it is clear what teams have their intermediate program figured out. Momentum is key heading into third intermediate race in a row during this part of the schedule. Atlanta is first of eight races to be held on a 24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-oval but with the standings so top heavy, expect many of the same drivers to play similar parts.

	Fontana		Las Vegas
1	Jimmie Johnson	1	Jimmie Johnson
2	Kevin Harvick	2	Kevin Harvick
3	Jeff Burton	3	Jeff Gordon
4	Mark Martin	4	Mark Martin
5	Joey Logano	5	Matt Kenseth
6	Kurt Busch	6	Joey Logano
7	Matt Kenseth	7	Tony Stewart
8	Clint Bowyer	8	Clint Bowyer
9	Tony Stewart	9	Kasey Kahne
10	Greg Biffle	10	Greg Biffle

• NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

Chasing the pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway

1. Mark Martin… Won pole at last year’s Kobalt Tools 500, started seventh in September race.
2. Kurt Busch… Won the pole last week at Vegas. Started second and sixth last year Atlanta.
3. Kyle Busch… Started ninth and fifth last year at Atlanta. Average start of 7.0 this season.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Atlanta: ‘07 sweep, 10/04. Eleven Top 10s in 17 career starts at Atlanta. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Four-time winner at Atlanta: 10/03, 3/99, 11/98, 3/95. Since 10/05: Eight Top 10s in nine races, all 12th or better. Y!-A2
3. Kevin Harvick… Won 3/01 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 3.0 last year. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 11/94, 11/91. Finished 31st (Average Running Position of 14th) and fifth last year at Atlanta. Y!-A3
5. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 12.0 last year at Atlanta, 6.0 from ‘06-’08. Y!-B2
6. Clint Bowyer… Finished sixth in three straight March races at Atlanta. Y!-B3
7. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 7.0 at Atlanta in ‘08, DNF (crash) and 10th place finish last year. Y!-A4
8. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 10/06, 3/02. Average finish of 4.3 in March races since ‘06 at Atlanta.
9. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 4.5 in ‘07 at Atlanta, 14.0 in ‘08. Finished 14th and 34th last year. Y!-B4
10. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner at Atlanta: 10/08, ‘05 sweep. Finished third and 37th last year at Atlanta.
11. Kurt Busch… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 3/09, 10/02. Won last year’s March race, DNF (crash) in September. Average finish of 11.0 in ‘07-’08 March races, 7.0 in September.
12. Kasey Kahne… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 9/09, 3/06. Finished seventh in last year’s March race. Y!-B5
13. Joey Logano… Average start of 38.0, average finish of 26.0 in ‘09 at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth last year. Y!-B6
14. Kyle Busch… Won 3/08 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 15.5 last year at Atlanta.
15. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 14.0 in last two March races at Atlanta, 4.5 in Sep/Oct.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 3/04 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 13.5 since ‘07. Y!-B7
17. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished at career-best third in September race last year at Atlanta.
18. David Reutimann… Finished at career-best fourth in September race last year at Atlanta. Y!-B8
19. Brian Vickers… Average finish of 6.0 at Atlanta last year.
20. Jamie McMurray… Finished 15th in last year’s March race at Atlanta, 28th in September.
21. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 15.0 in ‘08 at Atlanta, finished 22nd and ninth last year.
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Finished 10th and 26th last year at Atlanta. IROC: Won ‘05 and ‘06.
23. A.J. Allmendinger… Strong value play. Average finish of 16.8 in four career starts at Atlanta. Truck: DNFs (crashes) in ‘06 and ‘07. Y!-C1
24. Paul Menard… Strong value play. Finished 15th in last year’s September race at Atlanta. Y!-C2
25. Scott Speed… Strong value play. DNF (crash) and 24th place last year at Atlanta. Truck: 27th, fifth in ‘08. Y!-C3
26. Bill Elliott… Weak value play. Five-time winner at Atlanta: ‘92 sweep, 11/87, ‘85 sweep. DNF (crash) in last year’s March race at Atlanta, running 16th midrace. Y!-C4
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 20.5 last year at Atlanta.
28. David Ragan… Average finish of 26.0 last year at Atlanta.
29. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth in ‘08, fourth last year.
30. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 30.0 in three career starts at Atlanta.
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 30.2 in four career starts at Atlanta. N’wide: 15th in ‘07. IndyCar: fourth in ‘01. IROC: ninth of 12 in ‘06.
32. Regan Smith… Average finish of 34.0 in two career starts at Atlanta (both in ‘08). N’wide: 22.0 from ‘06-’07. Truck: 23.5 in ‘05, ‘07.
33. Bobby Labonte… Long shot value play. Six-time winner at Atlanta: 3/03, 11/01, 11/99, 3/98, 11/97, 11/96. DNF (engine) in March race, 18th in September last year at Atlanta.
34. Robby Gordon… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.0 last year at Atlanta.
35. David Gilliland… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.5 last year at Atlanta.
36. Travis Kvapil… DNF (engine) last year in March race at Atlanta. Average finish of 26.0 in ‘08.Truck: 11.8 in five career starts (’04, ‘07-’08). IROC: fifth in ‘04.
37. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: ‘03, ‘06. ARCA: ‘02. Average finish of 33.5 this season.
38. Max Papis… DNF (crash) in last year’s September race, first career Cup start at Atlanta. Truck: finished 20th last year. IROC: 8.5 from ‘05-’06.
39. Dave Blaney… Did not start and park last week, finished 29th.
40. Michael McDowell… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: DNF (transmission) last year.
41. Mike Bliss… Start and parked both races last year at Atlanta. N’wide: seventh in ‘08, start and park last year. Truck: seventh, won in ‘06, eighth last year.
42. Boris Said… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at Atlanta.
43. Aric Almirola… Likely start and park. Finished 21st in last year’s March race at Atlanta. N’wide: 27th in ‘07. Truck: 18th, DNF (engine) in ‘06.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Two DNFs last year.
45. Casey Mears… Failed to qualify three times this season. Average finish of 21.2 in 14 career starts at Atlanta.
46. Terry Cook… Failed to qualify three times this season. No career Cup starts. Truck: 12.5 in 10 career starts.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Kobalt Tools 500

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	5	14.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Paul Menard	5	15
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	18	9
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	21	13
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Jeff Gordon Dale Earnhardt Jr	18 15	6 5.25
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	9.5
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	9.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kurt Busch	1	7.75
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12.5
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	19.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	18	11.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	19.25
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendiger	6	20.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	18	15.75

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