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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Emory Healthcare 500 from Atlanta

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox			16.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner			11.91
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon		10.63
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com			13.21
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch		15.29
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jeff Gordon		12.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kurt Busch		10.00
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row			13.29
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Kurt Busch		15.79
Chris Leone	On Pit Row			12.42
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving			10.50
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle		15.46
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans			13.58
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch		13.96
James Jones	On Pit Row			15.08
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards		12.58
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet			12.75
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com			11.83
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com			17.96

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Emory Healthcare 500

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row			14.54
James Jones	On Pit Row			12.00
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox			21.38
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Ryan Newman		10.79
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Dale Earnhardt Jr		14.25
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr		13.25 13.04
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne		13.38
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com			10.08
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	David Reutimann		11.29
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com			12.46
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet			12.63
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans			12.92
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya		13.92
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne		18.63
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com			11.92
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving			15.33
Chris Leone	On Pit Row			19.54
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jamie McMurray		10.29

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Emory Healthcare 500 Motor Speedway

The return trip to Atlanta Motor Speedway is a great time for fantasy owners to take advantage of the three races held on 1.5-mile tracks with 24 degrees of corner banking. Texas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway have also hosted one event each, so I’ve put together another Fantasy Tool to highlight the best finishers from those races and provided a link to last year’s version.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2010 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

Chasing the pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway

1. Juan Pablo Montoya… Started third in March at Atlanta, fourth last September. Has started 10th or better seven of the last eight this season with two poles.
2. Kasey Kahne… Started from the outside pole last September at Atlanta, sixth last March.
3. Kurt Busch… Started second and sixth last year, 11th in March.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings:

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Kurt Busch… Three-time winner (3/10, 3/09, 10/02) at Atlanta, has won two of the last three with an average of 181.5 laps led. Y!-A1
2. Kasey Kahne… Two-time winner (9/09, 3/06) at Atlanta- led 144 laps in March, finished fourth. Y!-B1
3. Jeff Gordon… Four-time winner (10/03, 3/99, 11/98, 3/95) at Atlanta, eight Top 10s in the last 10 starts- four Top Fives, runner-up twice. Y!-A2
4. Denny Hamlin… Average running position of eighth or better in five of the last six starts at Atlanta, has led 23 or more laps in three of the last four. Y!-A3
5.  Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner (’07 sweep, 10/04) at Atlanta, has never held an average running position worse than 13th- led at least 11 laps in three of the last four. Y!-A4
6. Kevin Harvick… Won 3/01 race at Atlanta, average finish of 8.3 in the last six starts. Y!-B2
7. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner (10/08, ‘05 sweep) at Atlanta, average running position of 11th or better in eight of the last 11 starts- ran fifth or better four times. Y!-A5
8. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 6.7 in the last 10 starts at Atlanta, finished second in March. Y!-B3
9. Greg Biffle… Four Top 10s in the last five starts at Atlanta. Y!-A6
10. Kyle Busch… Won race 3/08 at Atlanta, average running position of ninth or better in four of the last six. Led an average of 23.0 of laps in the last two, finished 13th and 23th. Y!-A7
11. Juan Pablo Montoya… Third-place finishes in two straight starts at Atlanta. Y!-A8
12. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (10/06, 3/02) at Atlanta, average finish of 12.3 in the last four starts- one Top 10.
13. Clint Bowyer… Sixth-place finish in four of nine career starts at Atlanta, 20th or worse in the other five. Y!-B4
14. David Reutimann… Finished a career-best fourth last September at Atlanta, was running seventh in March before an engine failure. Y!-B5
15. Jeff Burton… Only one Top 15 in the last four starts at Atlanta. Y!-B6
16. A.J. Allmendinger… Finished a career-best sixth in March at Atlanta, average running position of 11th. Y!-C1
17. Martin Truex Jr…. Average running position of 15th or better in eight straight starts at Atlanta, only two Top 10s. Y!-B7
18. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 3/04 race at Atlanta, average finish of 13.5 in the last four. Y!-B8
19. Mark Martin… Two-time winner (11/94, 11/91) at Atlanta, average finish of 26.0 in the last the last six- one Top 10, finished fifth last September.
20. Jamie McMurray… Average finish of 20.9 in 16 career starts at Atlanta.
21. Paul Menard… Finished a career-best fifth in March at Atlanta, average running position of 15th. Y!-C2
22. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 20.0 in the last 12 starts at Atlanta, only one Top 10.
23. Marcos Ambrose… Finished a career-best sixth in March at Atlanta, average running position of 15th.
24. Joey Logano… Average finish of 29.0 in three career starts at Atlanta.
25. Brad Keselowski… DNF (crash) in March at Atlanta, average running position of 15th.
26. Scott Speed… Finished a career-best 10th in March at Atlanta, average running position of 19th. Y!-C3
27. Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Five-time winner (’92 sweep, 11/87, ‘85 sweep) at Atlanta, finished 16th in March. Y!-C4
28. Bobby Labonte… Long shot value play. Six-time winner (3/03, 11/01, 11/99, 3/98, 11/97, 11/96) at Atlanta, average finish of 20.0 in the last two.
29. Regan Smith… Finished a career-best 14th in March at Atlanta, average running position of 28th.
30. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 22.3 in 23 career starts at Atlanta.
31. Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 24.7 in nine career starts at Atlanta.
32. David Ragan… Average finish of 26.6 in seven career starts at Atlanta.
33. David Gilliland… Average finish of 26.9 in eight career starts at Atlanta.
34. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 29.8 in five career starts at Atlanta, has never finished on the lead lap.
35. Travis Kvapil… Average finish of 32.0 in eight career starts at Atlanta, has never finished on the lead lap.
36. Dave Blaney… Driving for Front Row Motorsports. Finished 34th in last non-start and park race at Atlanta (3/08).
37. Kevin Conway… Finished 31st in March, first career Cup start at Atlanta.
38. Patrick Carpentier… Finished 35th in only career Cup start at Atlanta (3/08).
39. Jason Leffler… Possible start and park. First Cup start since ‘08, first at Atlanta since ‘05.
40. Casey Mears… Likely start and park.
41. Scott Riggs… Likely start and park.
42. Landon Cassill… Likely start and park.
43. Todd Bodine… Likely start and park.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park.
45. Michael McDowell… Likely start and park.
46. Mike Bliss… Likely start and park. Two straight DNQs.
47. J.J. Yeley… Likely start and park. Three straight DNQs.

Contender or Pretender: Atlanta 2

Kurt Busch (Contender) – Kurt Busch has won the last two Atlanta spring races and in the COT era he’s been phenomenal. In the five Atlanta COT races he has the second best driver rating (109.6), and he’s led an average of 75 laps per race.

Kurt Busch has also proven himself on other similar tracks this season (Charlotte and Texas). His average finish on quad oval tracks for the year is second. In 2002 Kurt Busch won a rain delayed race at Atlanta that ended under the lights.

Jimmie Johnson (Pretender) – Besides Jimmie Johnson’s lack of luck and momentum at the moment Atlanta really hasn’t been a good place for Johnson in the COT. Almost all of Jimmie Johnson’s success at Atlanta came in the old car. In the five COT races Jimmie has only finished in the top ten twice. In 2008 Johnson finished second but that was largely the product of fresh tires at the end of the race, not because his car was that good.

Carl Edwards (Contender) – With the continued reemergence of Roush Racing Carl Edwards will certainly play into the mix for the win. He’s always been very successful at this track and knows his way to victory lane. Edwards has had some bad recent finishes at Atlanta but don’t let that scare you off.

Mark Martin (Pretender) – Where can you trust Mark Martin now? My answer would be nowhere until he gets a streak of good finishes going. In the last three Atlanta races Martin has an average start of fourth but don’t get suckered in just because of that. His average running position in these races is 14th and his average finish is 23rd.

Kasey Kahne (Contender) – Kasey Kahne is the defending champion of this race. Last year he started second and ran in the top five for almost the entire race. Even though Kasey Kahne didn’t win the spring race this year he still managed to have the best driver rating (138.1). His quad oval average finish for the year is seventh.

Ryan Newman (Pretender) – If you like qualifying you’ll like Ryan Newman. At one point in his career he won six straight poles at Atlanta. Last year Ryan Newman finished 9th, but to find his next Atlanta top ten you have to look all the way back to 2004.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview: Kobalt Tools 500 from Atlanta Motor Speedway

With eight of the same drivers making up the Top 10 in two straight races, it is clear what teams have their intermediate program figured out. Momentum is key heading into third intermediate race in a row during this part of the schedule. Atlanta is first of eight races to be held on a 24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-oval but with the standings so top heavy, expect many of the same drivers to play similar parts.

	Fontana		Las Vegas
1	Jimmie Johnson	1	Jimmie Johnson
2	Kevin Harvick	2	Kevin Harvick
3	Jeff Burton	3	Jeff Gordon
4	Mark Martin	4	Mark Martin
5	Joey Logano	5	Matt Kenseth
6	Kurt Busch	6	Joey Logano
7	Matt Kenseth	7	Tony Stewart
8	Clint Bowyer	8	Clint Bowyer
9	Tony Stewart	9	Kasey Kahne
10	Greg Biffle	10	Greg Biffle

• NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

Chasing the pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway

1. Mark Martin… Won pole at last year’s Kobalt Tools 500, started seventh in September race.
2. Kurt Busch… Won the pole last week at Vegas. Started second and sixth last year Atlanta.
3. Kyle Busch… Started ninth and fifth last year at Atlanta. Average start of 7.0 this season.

Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.

• Y! A/B/C - The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
• Value play - Sneaky plays at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternatives in allocation formats.

1. Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Atlanta: ‘07 sweep, 10/04. Eleven Top 10s in 17 career starts at Atlanta. Y!-A1
2. Jeff Gordon… Four-time winner at Atlanta: 10/03, 3/99, 11/98, 3/95. Since 10/05: Eight Top 10s in nine races, all 12th or better. Y!-A2
3. Kevin Harvick… Won 3/01 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 3.0 last year. Y!-B1
4. Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 11/94, 11/91. Finished 31st (Average Running Position of 14th) and fifth last year at Atlanta. Y!-A3
5. Matt Kenseth… Average finish of 12.0 last year at Atlanta, 6.0 from ‘06-’08. Y!-B2
6. Clint Bowyer… Finished sixth in three straight March races at Atlanta. Y!-B3
7. Greg Biffle… Average finish of 7.0 at Atlanta in ‘08, DNF (crash) and 10th place finish last year. Y!-A4
8. Tony Stewart… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 10/06, 3/02. Average finish of 4.3 in March races since ‘06 at Atlanta.
9. Jeff Burton… Average finish of 4.5 in ‘07 at Atlanta, 14.0 in ‘08. Finished 14th and 34th last year. Y!-B4
10. Carl Edwards… Three-time winner at Atlanta: 10/08, ‘05 sweep. Finished third and 37th last year at Atlanta.
11. Kurt Busch… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 3/09, 10/02. Won last year’s March race, DNF (crash) in September. Average finish of 11.0 in ‘07-’08 March races, 7.0 in September.
12. Kasey Kahne… Two-time winner at Atlanta: 9/09, 3/06. Finished seventh in last year’s March race. Y!-B5
13. Joey Logano… Average start of 38.0, average finish of 26.0 in ‘09 at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth last year. Y!-B6
14. Kyle Busch… Won 3/08 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 15.5 last year at Atlanta.
15. Denny Hamlin… Average finish of 14.0 in last two March races at Atlanta, 4.5 in Sep/Oct.
16. Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won 3/04 race at Atlanta. Average finish of 13.5 since ‘07. Y!-B7
17. Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished at career-best third in September race last year at Atlanta.
18. David Reutimann… Finished at career-best fourth in September race last year at Atlanta. Y!-B8
19. Brian Vickers… Average finish of 6.0 at Atlanta last year.
20. Jamie McMurray… Finished 15th in last year’s March race at Atlanta, 28th in September.
21. Ryan Newman… Average finish of 15.0 in ‘08 at Atlanta, finished 22nd and ninth last year.
22. Martin Truex Jr…. Finished 10th and 26th last year at Atlanta. IROC: Won ‘05 and ‘06.
23. A.J. Allmendinger… Strong value play. Average finish of 16.8 in four career starts at Atlanta. Truck: DNFs (crashes) in ‘06 and ‘07. Y!-C1
24. Paul Menard… Strong value play. Finished 15th in last year’s September race at Atlanta. Y!-C2
25. Scott Speed… Strong value play. DNF (crash) and 24th place last year at Atlanta. Truck: 27th, fifth in ‘08. Y!-C3
26. Bill Elliott… Weak value play. Five-time winner at Atlanta: ‘92 sweep, 11/87, ‘85 sweep. DNF (crash) in last year’s March race at Atlanta, running 16th midrace. Y!-C4
27. Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 20.5 last year at Atlanta.
28. David Ragan… Average finish of 26.0 last year at Atlanta.
29. Brad Keselowski… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: sixth in ‘08, fourth last year.
30. Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 30.0 in three career starts at Atlanta.
31. Sam Hornish Jr…. Average finish of 30.2 in four career starts at Atlanta. N’wide: 15th in ‘07. IndyCar: fourth in ‘01. IROC: ninth of 12 in ‘06.
32. Regan Smith… Average finish of 34.0 in two career starts at Atlanta (both in ‘08). N’wide: 22.0 from ‘06-’07. Truck: 23.5 in ‘05, ‘07.
33. Bobby Labonte… Long shot value play. Six-time winner at Atlanta: 3/03, 11/01, 11/99, 3/98, 11/97, 11/96. DNF (engine) in March race, 18th in September last year at Atlanta.
34. Robby Gordon… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.0 last year at Atlanta.
35. David Gilliland… Long shot value play. Average finish of 21.5 last year at Atlanta.
36. Travis Kvapil… DNF (engine) last year in March race at Atlanta. Average finish of 26.0 in ‘08.Truck: 11.8 in five career starts (’04, ‘07-’08). IROC: fifth in ‘04.
37. Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: ‘03, ‘06. ARCA: ‘02. Average finish of 33.5 this season.
38. Max Papis… DNF (crash) in last year’s September race, first career Cup start at Atlanta. Truck: finished 20th last year. IROC: 8.5 from ‘05-’06.
39. Dave Blaney… Did not start and park last week, finished 29th.
40. Michael McDowell… No career Cup starts at Atlanta. N’wide: DNF (transmission) last year.
41. Mike Bliss… Start and parked both races last year at Atlanta. N’wide: seventh in ‘08, start and park last year. Truck: seventh, won in ‘06, eighth last year.
42. Boris Said… Likely start and park. No career Cup starts at Atlanta.
43. Aric Almirola… Likely start and park. Finished 21st in last year’s March race at Atlanta. N’wide: 27th in ‘07. Truck: 18th, DNF (engine) in ‘06.
44. Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Two DNFs last year.
45. Casey Mears… Failed to qualify three times this season. Average finish of 21.2 in 14 career starts at Atlanta.
46. Terry Cook… Failed to qualify three times this season. No career Cup starts. Truck: 12.5 in 10 career starts.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Expert Darkhorse Picks: Kobalt Tools 500

The On Pit Row fantasy racing experts opinions of the best Sprint Cup driver currently outside the top 12 in Sprint Cup Series points, for this weekends race.

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	5	14.75
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Paul Menard	5	15
Dennis Mickelson	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	18	9
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Denny Hamlin	21	13
Jerry Lagger Eric McGuire	One and Done Game Winner Free agent	Jeff Gordon Dale Earnhardt Jr	18 15	6 5.25
Charlie Turner	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	9.5
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	9.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kurt Busch	1	7.75
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12.5
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	19.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	18	11.5
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr	15	19.25
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendiger	6	20.75
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jeff Gordon	18	15.75

NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2009 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

This table show the average finish of 35 drivers in the eight races at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway (Formerly Lowe’s Motor Speedway) during the 2009 season. All of these tracks are 1.5 mile long and feature 24 degree corner backing.

	ATL 1	TX 1	CHA 1	ATL 2	CHA 2	TX 2	AVERAGE
Jeff Gordon	2	1	14	8	4	13	7.0
Matt Kenseth	12	5	10	12	2	3	7.3
Tony Stewart	8	4	19	11	13	6	10.2
Kasey Kahne	7	19	7	1	3	33	11.7
Ryan Newman	22	15	2	9	11	12	11.8
Kyle Busch	18	18	6	13	8	11	12.3
David Reutimann	32	11	1	4	15	16	13.2
Mark Martin	31	6	17	5	17	4	13.3
Denny Hamlin	13	12	11	6	42	2	14.3
Greg Biffle	34	3	20	10	16	8	15.2
Kurt Busch	1	8	34	38	10	1	15.3
Brian Vickers	5	16	5	7	34	26	15.5
Kevin Harvick	4	27	41	2	18	5	16.2
Jimmie Johnson	9	2	13	36	1	38	16.5
Jeff Burton	14	9	25	34	14	9	17.5
Clint Bowyer	6	22	36	29	6	7	17.7
Martin Truex Jr.	10	25	23	26	9	14	17.8
Joey Logano	30	30	9	22	5	19	19.2
Juan Pablo Montoya	27	7	8	3	35	37	19.5
Casey Mears	16	21	33	25	7	21	20.5
Carl Edwards	3	10	4	37	39	39	22.0
AJ Allmendinger	17	34	32	20	23	10	22.7
Brad Keselowski		23			12	35	23.3
Paul Menard	28	13	29	15	27	29	23.5
Robby Gordon	26	39	3	16	30	27	23.5
Scott Speed	35		18	24	28	18	24.6
David Ragan	19	37	24	33	20	17	25.0
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	11	20	40	17	38	25	25.2
Elliot Sadler	20	32	31	21	26	22	25.3
Jamie McMurray	15	38	21	28	33	20	25.8
Bill Elliott	36	28	15	19	29	34	26.8
Marcos Ambrose	38	41	26	23	22	15	27.5
Bobby Labonte	40	40	12	18	31	31	28.7
Sam Hornish Jr.	37	17	16	35	40	40	30.8
Regan Smith		31				32	31.5

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell	FFToolbox	Kevin Harvick	9	8
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Matt Kenseth	2	10.5
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	9	10
Tall Glass of Milk	Answerthis.com	Greg Biffle	8	9.75
Eric McClung	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	33	18.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	12	18.5
Jon Rodgers Dan Beaver	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Jhnson Jimmie Johnson	12 12	10.5 7.5
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	39	19.75
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	Carl Edwards	39	15.75
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	12
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Kyle Busch	25	16.5
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Mark Martin	33	20
Lou Lauer	USAR Fans	Jimmie Johnson	12	11
Mike Harmon	FOX Sports	Jimmie Johnson	12	14
Jay Busby	Yahoo! Sports	Jeff Gordon	18	11
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	9	13.5
Ryan Rantz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	18	10.5
Darren Fauth	Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet	Jimmie Johnson	12	13.25
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	33	18
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	12	21.75

Contender Or Pretender: Atlanta

Jeff Gordon (Contender) – In the 4 COT races held at Atlanta Motor Speedway Jeff Gordon is the only driver to sweep the top ten in every race. Over the last 4 COT Atlanta races Jeff Gordon has the best average finish (6th) and the second best average start (7.0).

At Las Vegas Jeff Gordon was absolutely dominant until the end of the race and led a race high 219 laps. In 2009 Jeff Gordon scored the most points in he series on intermediate tracks and had finishes of 2nd and 8th at Atlanta.

Jimmie Johnson (Pretender) - THIS IS NOT A TYPO. Did you read Charlie’s post about Does Jimmie Johnson’s Greatness Get You Down? If it does let me try to help you out here. In the stats that you can download from the Onpitrow.com newsletter you’ll be overwhelmed by how dominant Jimmie Johnson’s been at Atlanta over the last 10 races. He’s the best in the series at Atlanta in terms of  best average start, average mid race, average finish, average position, most laps in the top 15, laps led, percent of laps led, and last but not least he boasts a driver rating 110.1 which is nearly 5 points higher than his closest competitor (Carl Edwards).

So now you’re wondering how in the world is he a pretender? He hasn’t been that good in the 4 COT races at Atlanta. In the COT era his average finish here is 15th. In the first COT Atlanta race his car was out in the weeds and got lapped on the track several times (first race graph). In the next Atlanta COT race he finished 2nd but that race result was the product of fresh tires in a near legendary sprint to the finish. His second place finish isn’t even close to reflecting how the 48 car was that day (second race graph). In the spring 2009 COT race Jimmie wasn’t competitive late in the race and finished 9th (third race graph). Last fall Jimmie Johnson was competitive for the first half the race but the 48 lost the handle of the car and shortly after that they suffered a mechanical failure and were done for the day (fourth race graph).

So after all of this I’ll say Jimmie Johnson isn’t bad here, but he certainly isn’t a contender. His stats are heavily padded by what he accomplished in the old car and that era is over.

Kevin Harvick (Contender) – Last fall at Atlanta is when I started to see something in Kevin Harvick that would translate into 2010 success. He had the car to beat in the second Atlanta race of 2009, but the 29 car wasn’t the best on short runs which is how that race was decided. He was extremely strong on the long runs (sound familiar lately).

This is a little bit off topic but check out what I said about Kevin Harvick in a Experts Fantasy NASCAR draft earlier this year.

Denny Hamlin (Pretender) – Denny Hamlin has been pretty bad this year. After Las Vegas and California I see no real reason to be optimistic about Denny Hamlin at Atlanta. At Las Vegas his average running position was 20.5. He had similar uncompetitive numbers at California. For a driver who many felt would be Jimmie Johnson’s biggest competitor this year I don’t think he could do any worse.

Kyle Busch (Contender) – Kyle smoked the field last fall at Texas. He led 232 laps, but the 18 team was off in the fuel department. His success that day will translate into a good run at Atlanta Sunday.

Ryan Newman (Pretender) – I can’t think of a worse intermediate track for Newman. Going back to 2005 Newman has only finished in the top ten once, and that was a 9th place finish last fall (product of fresh tires at the end). He’s good at winning the pole here (7 poles), but that  hasn’t translated into good finishes.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s UPDATED

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Below are 32 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish at three similar tracks: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Lowe’s Motor Speedway and Texas.

Also see my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table which is very useful for planning your lineup for the rest of the season.

	Atlanta 1	Texas	Lowe’s	Atlanta 2	Lowe’s 2	AVERAGE
Jeff Gordon	2	1	14	8	4	5.8
Kasey Kahne	7	19	7	1	3	7.4
Matt Kenseth	12	5	10	12	2	8.2
Tony Stewart	8	4	19	11	13	11.0
Ryan Newman	22	15	2	9	11	11.8
Jimmie Johnson	9	2	13	36	1	12.2
David Reutimann	32	11	1	4	15	12.6
Kyle Busch	18	18	6	13	8	12.6
Brian Vickers	5	16	5	7	34	13.4
Mark Martin	31	6	17	5	17	15.2
Juan Pablo Montoya	27	7	8	3	35	16.0
Greg Biffle	34	3	20	10	16	16.6
Denny Hamlin	13	12	11	6	42	16.8
Brad Keselowski		23			12	17.5
Kurt Busch	1	8	34	38	10	18.2
David Stremme	23	14	22	14	19	18.4
Kevin Harvick	4	27	41	2	18	18.4
Carl Edwards	3	10	4	37	39	18.6
Martin Truex Jr.	10	25	23	26	9	18.6
Jeff Burton	14	9	25	34	14	19.2
Joey Logano	30	30	9	22	5	19.2
Clint Bowyer	6	22	36	29	6	19.8
Casey Mears	16	21	33	25	7	20.4
Paul Menard	28	13	29	15	27	22.4
Robby Gordon	26	39	3	16	30	22.8
Dale Earnhardt Jr.	11	20	40	17	38	25.2
AJ Allmendinger	17	34	32	20	23	25.2
Bill Elliott*	36	28	15	19	29	25.4
Jamie McMurray	15	38	21	28	33	27.0
Bobby Labonte	40	40	12	18	31	28.2
Sam Hornish Jr.	37	17	16	35	40	29.0
Marcos Ambrose	38	41	26	23	22	30.0

*David Gilliland drove the No. 21 Wood Brothers in the second race at Atlanta. Bill Elliott cracked three ribs during a dirt bike accident and was unable to race. Elliott finished 19th two weeks ago at Kansas Motor Speedway in his first race back.

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