Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Texas 2 – AAA Texas 500

November 2, 2011

I hope you enjoyed last Sunday’s caution-filled race at Martinsville Speedway because this weekend’s event at Texas Motor Speedway will, more than likely, be what I like to call a snooze-fest. What’s good for fantasy owners, though, is that the practice schedule for this event is back to “normal.” There will be one session on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying at 4:30 eastern time. Then, on Saturday, two more practices will be held where all of the cars will be in race trim, so average practice speeds shouldn’t be skewed much. The AAA Texas 500 is scheduled to start around 3:30 pm eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Texas…It was a Roush-Fenway type of day back in April at this track. Matt Kenseth got his first win of this 2011 season after leading 169 of the 334 laps. His team mates didn’t fare too bad, either, with Carl Edwards finishing 3rd and Greg Biffle following him to the line in 4th. Clint Bowyer, who led 44 laps that day, wound up 2nd, and Paul Menard rounded out the top 5. One interesting statistic from that race: eight of the drivers who started in the top 10 that day also finished there.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The AAA Texas 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Matt Kenseth – Load up on Roush this weekend, that’s all I’m going to say. Kenseth may have saw his title hopes go down the drain last weekend in Martinsville, so he needs a good run this weekend and he’s coming to the perfect track. As I said before, Matt is the most recent winner at Texas, and in the last five races here, he has post four top 5s. What’s even more impressing than that is since 2005 (twelve races), Kenseth has eight top 5s and a worst finish of 20th. His average finish of 9th here is the best in the series and Kenseth has led more laps (669) than anyone at this track.

2. Carl Edwards – If this Chase has shown anything to me, it’s that Carl Edwards is going to win this year’s championship. This team (and driver) continue to overcome obstacle after obstacle and Cousin Carl now hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since Michigan in August. Seriously. Edwards’ record at Texas Motor Speedway is shaky to say the least (16.5 average finish in thirteen starts) but he is a three-time winner here and finished 3rd in the spring. Carl has been a model of consistency this season and that’s what you need to win a fantasy NASCAR championship (as well as a Sprint Cup championship).

3. Jimmie Johnson – I’ll make this quick. Sixteen starts at Texas Motor Speedway, twelve top 10 finishes and just two finishes outside of the top 20. Johnson has just one win here (back in 2007) but has finished 2nd four other times and is on a three-race streak of top 10s at this track. As you probably remember, “The Champ” wrecked in Charlotte, relegating him to a 34th place finish, but before that Johnson finished in the top 10 in each of the five intermediate tri-oval races prior. It’s the Chase, don’t go against the #48. That should be written in a rule book or something.

4. Greg Biffle – If The Biff is going to put a one in the victory column this season, Texas is the best place for him to do so. Finishing the race has plagued this team all season but one of these times everything is going to go as planned, right? Texas isn’t one of Biffle’s best tracks statistically, but in the last five races here, no other driver has been better. In that span, Greg has cranked out top 10s in each race (with three being top 5s) and his average driver rating of 113.9 is the best of all drivers. He won here in 2005 after starting 5th and leading 219 of the 334 laps.

5. Denny Hamlin – This is Hamlin’s fifth-best track on the circuit, and after last week’s solid 5th-place run at Martinsville, not only does it seem like Denny has his reliability back, but this team also has some momentum, as that makes three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Hamlin finished 15th here in April, which is okay, but a bit disappointing for him because in the three races prior, Denny captured two victories and a runner-up finish as well. His average finish of 9.3 in twelve career starts at Texas is bested only by Matt Kenseth’s 9.0.

6. Tony Stewart – This weekend is a little similar to last weekend for “Smoke.” He hasn’t been great recently at Texas (32nd, 11th, and 12th-place finishes in the last three races), but his overall history at this track is pretty good. We all know what happened last weekend. Stewart has made nineteen career starts at Texas Motor Speedway and has finished inside the top 10 in more than half of them (ten). He visited victory lane here in 2006, and Tony hasn’t been too bad on the tri-oval intermediates in 2011: 8th most recently at Charlotte and a worst finish of 15th in the past six events. I haven’t been real high on Stewart this season (I’ve started him just once in my Yahoo! league) but you can’t go against the momentum this team has right now.

7. Kurt Busch – The elder Busch brother isn’t dominant at Texas Motor Speedway, but I don’t see why you won’t be able to rely on him for a solid top 10 finish on Sunday. In seventeen career starts here, Kurt has only three top 5s (including a win in 2009), but he has a total of eleven top 10s, and four of those have came in the last five events here. His average driver rating of 97.7 in those last five races is good enough for sixth-best in the series. On the intermediate tri-oval tracks this season, Busch hasn’t finished worse than 13th, and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday.

8. Kevin Harvick - Surprisingly, to me anyway, Kevin Harvick now has eight top 12 finishes in the last nine Sprint Cup events after last week’s 4th-place effort in Martinsville, and I just don’t see that changing this weekend. At Texas Motor Speedway, Kevin has made seventeen career starts and has came away with eight top 10s and a total of fourteen top 20s. In the last four tri-oval intermediate races, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas, and Charlotte, “Happy” has finished 7th, 2nd, 6th, and 6th, respectively. He finished 20th here in April but before that, Harvick had three-straight top 10s at this track.

9. Mark Martin – Obviously, with the way his season is going, ranking Mark Martin this high might not be the smartest move, but this guy’s luck has to turn around some time, doesn’t it? At Chicago and Kansas Martin finished 9th and 10th, respectively, and I think he has a chance to do that again this weekend. At Texas, Mark has made twenty-one career starts and owns an average finish of 13.5 and twelve top 10 finishes (as well as one win, which came back in 1998). He laid an egg in the April race here (36th) but before that, Martin had four-straight top 6 finishes at this track, and that 36th earlier this year has been Mark’s only finish outside of the top 12 since 2007. His average driver rating of 92.9 over the past five races at Texas is eighth-best in the series.

10. Jeff Burton – Am I going crazy? Not one bit. I don’t know if you have noticed (I didn’t until I looked it up), but Jeff Burton now has two straight top 10 finishes and seven top 15 finishes in the last ten Sprint Cup races. Quite a turnaround from earlier this year when I wrote him off after so many disappointing runs. What’s even more re-assuring is Burton’s record at Texas: in twenty-one career starts here, Jeff has two wins and an average finish of 15.9. What’s more impressive is that he has only finished outside of the top 20 six times in those twenty-one races. And what’s even more impressive yet is that Burton has just one finish outside of the top 13 in the last nine races at Texas. Don’t let the #31 slip by you this weekend.

11. Kyle Busch – “Rowdy” has been great or ‘just okay’ in the tri-oval intermediate tracks this season, and that’s also how his history at Texas Motor Speedway is as well. In thirteen career starts here, Kyle Busch has five finishes in the top 6, but he also has four finishes outside of the top 20. In the last five races at this track, Busch has the fourth-best average driver rating (101.7) but just the sixteenth-best average finish (16.0). If Kyle is on your roster this weekend, you better hope he hasn’t called it a season already.

12. Clint Bowyer – Clint hasn’t been outstanding on the intermediate tracks this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him fighting for a top 10 at the end of the AAA Texas 500 on Sunday. In eleven career starts here, Bowyer owns an average finish of 13.4–good enough for sixth-best in the series–and has just two finishes outside of the top 20. In three of the last four races at Texas, Clint has ended up in the top 10, and, like I said before, he finished runner-up to Matt Kenseth in April (and also led 44 laps).

13. Kasey Kahne – In the last two tri-oval intermediate races (Kansas and Charlotte), Kasey Kahne has finished 2nd and 4th, but otherwise this season he has been a teens driver on this type of track. Don’t get me wrong, he could definitely pull off another top 5 on Sunday in Texas, but I want to see what kind of car he has before ranking him that high. Kahne won here in 2006 but that is one of just three top 10s he has here in fourteen career starts. All three were also top 5s, though, so when Kasey is good here, he’s really good. If he starts in the top 5 and looks good in practice, I wouldn’t think twice about starting Kahne.

14. David Ragan – As I said before, load up on the Roushkateers. David Ragan started on the pole in the April race here and led 11 laps en route to a solid 7th-place finish. In the last seven races here, he has just one finish worse than 17th, and in the last two Ragan has finished in the top 10. He’s racing for a ride for next season and it seems like drivers come through in the clutch when that happens.

15. Brad Keselowski – This ranking will probably be a little too low for “Bad Brad” when it’s all said and done on Sunday, but there’s just 14 other drivers I like better than him going into the weekend. This team’s ability to adjust on the car during the race is simply amazing, though, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Keselowski ended up in victory lane once again before this season ends. At Texas, he has made six career starts with his best finish coming in the spring race last season, which was 14th. Earlier this year at this track, Keselowski led 32 laps but ended up finishing 18th. In the last six tri-oval intermediate races, Brad hasn’t finished worse than 16th. There’s definitely a lot of potential with this team right now.

Those To Avoid Entering The AAA Texas 500:

Brian Vickers – I’m a little worried about someone getting payback against Vickers this week (is there a driver he didn’t run into in Martinsville?), but what is more troublesome is his history at this track: in thirteen career starts at Texas, Vickers has zero top 10s and an average finish of 24.1.

Joey Logano – “Sliced Bread” finished 4th in this race last season, but you know what they say: even a blind squirrel finds nut once in a while. In his five other starts at this track, Logano has managed a best finish of 19th and has never finished on the lead lap. In April, Joey started 8th but ended up 24th despite having one of the worst driver ratings (56.8) of the non-start and parkers.

Jamie McMurray – Yeah, Jamie Mac screwed me on some of my fantasy rosters last week as well. He has a decent record here at Texas (career average finish of 16.9) but he has only one top 20 finish here since 2008 and McMurray has been god-awful on the intermediates this year: one top 20–a 16th at Atlanta–on the nine tri-oval intermediate tracks in 2011.

Written by Jordan McAbee · Filed Under Fantasy NASCAR, Fantasy NASCAR Primer Series, Fantasy Racing, Fantasy racing leagues, NASCAR, NASCAR Fantasy Tool, NASCAR Power Rankings, On Pit Row, Predictions, Texas Motor Speedway | Leave a Comment

Scouting Report: Texas

November 1, 2011

Texas How to make an informed fantasy pick for the AAA 500:

1) First and foremost you should pick a driver based on recent intermediate track performances. I would specifically recommend you study what happened in the Atlanta, Chicagoland, Kansas and Charlotte races. The key to making a good pick can be found by studying these races.

2) As with any track it’s important to study a drivers track history. When I write my fantasy content I typically go back to the start of the COT era at the track.

3) Practice is extremely important this week. Picking a driver who struggles in practice certainly won’t pay off this week.

4) Qualifying and track position is important every week but in today’s NASCAR it can be overcome quite easily with pit strategy. Pick the best cars, and only use qualifying as a tie breaker when you need to pick between drivers.

Elite Drivers at Texas:

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth snapped his long 76 race winless streak in April at Texas Motor Speedway. Kenseth didn’t only win, he dominated. He led 169 laps and had a near perfect 144.7 driver rating. Since 2007 Kenseth has truly been a “Elite Top Tier” driver. He has the best average finish (5.9), best average running position (9.1), best driver rating (108.4), ran and he’s led 354 laps (third most). His win at Charlotte last month is why I’m projecting him as the race winner.

Jimmie Johnson – His championship aspirations are over but that doesn’t mean he won’t get more “W’s”. The least amount of wins Johnson has accumulated in a season is three so I think he has another in him. Johnson won at Texas in 2007 and in the last three races his average finish is 6.3. Johnson has only finished outside the top fifteen twice at Texas in his entire career and both of those were due to crashes. What I really like about Johnson is how strong he’s been on intermediate tracks in the second half of the season. Don’t let his Charlotte performance scare you away from picking him, remember he was running in the top ten before the late accident parked him.

Greg Biffle – There’s no question Biffle has problems closing the deal this season. However I wouldn’t overlook him this week. He’s due for good fortune and I think it will come this week. Even though he’s a remarkably inconsistent driver no one can say that about him at Texas. He’s finished in the top ten in six consecutive races. No other driver in the series has an active streak longer than two. In these six races he’s led more laps than anyone (339), has the best average finish (5.9) and the best driver rating (113.8).

Tony Stewart – Stewart hasn’t finished in the top ten at Texas since 2009 but I think he’ll be a top tier driver Sunday. Throughout the Chase Stewart has been as good as anyone on intermediate tracks. He won at Chicagoland, ran good at Kansas before pit strategy stranded him mid pack (finished 15th), and ran good at Charlotte (8th, pit strategy issues once again). In these three races his 115.8 driver rating ranks as the third best in the series. His 112 points accumulated ranks as the 4th best (37.3 points per race).

Carl Edwards – Edwards is a three time Texaswinner who finished 3rd in April. He started second and recorded his 4th highest driver rating of this season (116.0). Edwards is always a serious threat at 1.5 mile tracks. His recent history at Texas isn’t the best but you need to take in account him racing with a broken leg and a crash in the last 3/4ths of race after he ran good. In the three 1.5 mile track races in the Chase Edwards has finished 4th (Chicagoland), 5th (Kansas) and 3rd (Charlotte). I would expect similar results but there’s also a possibility he might start dialing back and race conservatively (4 tires every pit stop, no fuel strategy etc).

Check out more of driver rankings : “Elite Top Tier“, “Front Runners“, “Mid Packers” and “Back Runners”

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Momentum Over The Last Five Races: