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NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Tony Stewart	1	12.06
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	2	12.78
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Tony Stewart	1	12.33
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Brad Keselowski	20	13.72
Eric McClung	KFFL	Carl Edwards	2	13.19
Eric McGuire	free agent	Carl Edwards	2	14.42
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	2	12.89
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	15.17
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	15	12.81
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	2	12.53
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	13.83
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	12.14
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl edwards	2	11.17
James Jones	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	12.36
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Carl Edwards	2	11.97
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Carl Edwards	2	9.56
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	2	11.83
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Carl Edwards	2	13.72

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	38	13.44
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kasey Kahne	7	14.42
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Marcos Ambrose	39	16.83
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	3	15.69
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kasey Kahne	7	14.64
Eric McGuire	free agent	Greg Biffle	35	16.72
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	A J Allmendinger	15	15.19
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Marcos Ambrose	39	13.92
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	15	22.11
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	6	16.69
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	7	12.81
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	15	14.92
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	24	15.56
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	35	14.08
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	35	13.19
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Martin Truex Jr	3	13.28
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	7	15.44
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	15	14.44

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Homestead – Ford 400

Well, this it it. It’s been a fun 2011 season, and this Sunday champions will finally be crowned–both in NASCAR as well as fantasy leagues worldwide. We will have the normal schedule this weekend: two practices on Friday, qualifying Saturday, and then the race on Sunday. I would like to quickly thank everyone that took the time to read my articles this season, and I hope you continue reading next year. Now without further ado, my final fantasy preview for the 2011 NASCAR season…

During The Last Race At Homestead…Carl Edwards started from the outside pole and pretty much dominated the entire race, leading 190 of the 267 laps en route to his second victory of the 2010 season. He had a perfect driver rating of 150.0. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson wrapped up his fifth-straight championship by finishing 2nd, and Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola, and A.J. Allmendinger followed him to the line to round out the top 5. Yes, I said Aric Almirola. Pole-sitter Kasey Kahne, who was driving Brian Vickers‘ the Red Bull Toyota, finished 6th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Ford 400:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Carl Edwards – Cousin Carl was my pick to win the championship before the season started, and I’m not going to change my mind now. In fact, I think he has a great chance to cap off his first championship season with his third career win at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In seven career starts at this track, Carl has just one finish outside of the top 8 (a 14th in his first race here) and an average finish of 5.7. As I said before, Edwards dominated the race here last season, and also pretty much dominated the race here in 2008 when he led 157 laps before taking the checkered flag. And–I’m mentioning this for the final time this season–Carl hasn’t finished worse than 11th in Sprint Cup action since August.

2. Tony Stewart – Close but no cigar, Smoke. Stewart has put up a great run, but I just don’t see him taking the championship away from Edwards unless the #99 Ford has some mechanical issues or something. Tony’s record at Homestead isn’t stellar (12.4 average finish in twelve starts), but he won here in 1999 and 2000 and has two top 10s in the last three races here. As fast as the #14 Chevrolet has been lately, don’t be surprised if he’s top 5 all day on Sunday.

3. Kevin Harvick – “Happy” has never visited victory lane at Homestead, but I’m sure he will soon. In the last five races here, Harvick has ended up in the top 5 in four of them and his average finish of 7.9 is second-best in the series. In his ten career starts here, Kevin’s worst finish has been 20th and only two of those races ended without Harvick in the top 10.

4. Kasey Kahne – I wouldn’t be surprised one bit to see Kasey Kahne up there fighting for his second straight win at the end of the Ford 400 on Sunday. He hasn’t been great at Homestead (four finishes outside of the top 15 in seven races) but it’s hard to go against a driver and team that’s this hot. Kahne won the pole in this race last season and went on to finish 6th. He also has the best average start at Homestead (7.9) of anyone in the series.

5. Matt Kenseth – It’s a pretty risky pick right now, but as long as Brian Vickers doesn’t wreck him, I’m expecting a solid top 5 out of Matt Kenseth this Sunday. This is nowhere near his best track (average finish of 18.8 in eleven starts) but Homestead is an intermediate track and he does drive for Jack Roush. Kenseth dominated the race here in 2007 en route to his second victory of that season, and in the last six races here he has finished 13th or better five times. If you put Matt on your roster this weekend, though, you better hope he doesn’t try to pay back Vickers, considering his championship hopes are gone.

6. A.J. Allmendinger – Five: that’s the number of top 11s The Dinger has in the last seven Sprint Cup races. So, momentum? Check. Coming into his best track (statistically)? Check. A.J. has made three starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. Last season, he started 5th and finished 5th in this race. Allmendinger is becoming a consistent driver in NASCAR’s top series, and I’m sure he’s one of the drivers that are extremely excited for the 2012 season to start. Sleeper for the Chase next year? I guess we’ll find out.

7. Jimmie Johnson – I’m sure he hasn’t been running at 100% in the last few races here, but his finishes sure don’t show that. Johnson has two straight top 5 finishes here and has led at least one lap in each of the last five races here. What concerns me, though, is how uncharacteristically awful this team has been in the Chase, and that’s the main reason I have Jimmie ranked in 7th. If he looks off in practice, I’ll probably have “Five Time” on my avoid list this weekend. His average finish in ten starts at Homestead is 11.6, which is fifth-best in the series.

8. Kyle Busch – I don’t think there will be any other driver more determined to have a good run in Homestead this weekend than “Rowdy” Busch. His finishes have been nowhere near great at this track–with just one top 10 in six career starts–but Kyle hasn’t ran that bad at all, having a driver rating of at least 85.0 in four of the last five races. I can see why people will avoid Busch this weekend, but if you’re willing to take a risk, I think “Rowdy” will be your best bet on Sunday.

9. Martin Truex, Jr. – Yep, Truex ruined many rosters of mine in Phoenix, too, but it’s good to have a short memory in fantasy racing. Homestead is the best track on the circuit for Martin and he’s been a pretty sure pick here for the last five years. In those five races, Truex has led a total of 92 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. He has also completed every single lap ran during that span and has an average driver rating of 107.4 over those five races. Coming into the season I thought Truex might be able to grab a victory in this race, but now I think just a solid top 10 is what he will be able to end the 2011 season with.

10. Greg Biffle – The good news? The Biff has nine top 15 finishes in the last eleven Sprint Cup races, and this team showed that they could finally put a full race together in Texas, where Biffle finished 5th. Even better news? Greg won three straight races here from 2004 to 2006. You’re probably thinking that there has to be some bad news, too. Kind of. Since those wins, Biffle’s best finish has been 10th, but that came last year. Also, his average finish of 13.1 here makes Homestead his fifth-best track on the circuit. It’s an intermediate course so I don’t see any reason as to why the Roushkateers won’t all have solid races.

11. Jeff Burton – All of this talk about the Edwards/Stewart battle and Kasey Kahne’s hot streak have really overshadowed Jeff Burton’s recent success. In the last four Sprint Cup races, Burton has three finishes of 6th or better, and those account for all but one of his four top 10s for this entire season. He finished 2nd here in 2009 and 8th in 2007, but his other two races here (in 2008 and last season, 2010) ended with 40th and 31st-place finishes. I think Burton will challenge for another top 10 this week, though, and end this disastrous season on a high note.

12. Denny Hamlin – Hamlin finished 33rd in his first ever start at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but in the five races since, he hasn’t finished worse than 14th and has amassed three top 5s, including his victory here in 2009. Denny hasn’t been great on the intermediates this year–especially recently–so I like him for a solid teens finish instead of a potential top 5. If he impresses me in practice, though, I may bump Hamlin up in my final rankings of the weekend.

13. Kurt Busch – If you’re someone who notices patterns and makes fantasy decisions based on them, then Kurt Busch would be a perfect pick for you this weekend. Since 2001, the elder Busch brother has posted a top 5 finish in every other race at Homestead. For example, he finished 4th in 2009, 2nd in 2007, 5th in 2004 (he didn’t race in 2005), and won the race in 2002. Last season, Kurt ended up 18th, and finished 43rd in 2008 as well as 2006. In 2003, he ended up 36th.

14. Clint Bowyer – Clint has made five career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway but he has been pretty consistent in all of them. He finished 39th here in 2007, but in the other four races Bowyer has ended up 10th, 5th, 11th, and 12th. Obviously, I think he’ll be a solid pick for a top 15, but I just don’t see much more than that for Clint this weekend. I hope he enjoys his final race with RCR, though, because I don’t see him competing much next year at MWR.

15. Trevor Bayne – Heck, why not? Bayne stays out of trouble on the intermediate tracks and usually ends up with a mid-teens finish. In the #21 Ford last season for this race was Bill Elliott, and he qualified 4th and finished 15th. I see no reason why Trevor can’t replicate that, or maybe even finish a little bit higher. He’s on the preliminary entry list for the Ford 400 so I’m assuming he’s going to race.

Those To Avoid Entering The Ford 400:

Brian Vickers – I don’t even see how this guy is racing this week to be honest with you. The only thing you can probably count on this weekend is that Brian Vickers may mess up many fantasy rosters. He has made seven career starts at Homestead, but Brian’s average finish is 30th and he’s only completed 81.4% of the laps ran. Have fun in the Nationwide series next year, “Sheriff.”

David Reutimann – What’s he got to race for, really? Chances are Reutimann won’t be racing next season (in the Sprint Cup series at least), and despite finishing 7th last week in Phoenix, I’m not convinced that this team has anything left in the tank for the season finale. David won the pole here in 2008 but his best finish in four career starts has been 15th.

Marcos Ambrose – I have Ambrose on the avoid list simply because he is so bad here (average finish of 34.3 in three career starts), but I’m going to make a case as to how he may be a deep–make that very deep–sleeper on Sunday. First, Marcos has had some strong runs on the intermediates this season (most recently at Texas where he ran top 5 for most of the race). Second, he has some momentum, with five finishes of 11th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races after he brought the #9 home in 8th last week in Phoenix. Finally, Aric Almirola posted a 4th-place finish in this race last season in the same car, as he was subbing for Kasey Kahne. I’ll personally be keeping an eye on Ambrose in practice, and if he looks good I may just take a chance.

Scouting Report: Ford 400

How to make an informed fantasy pick for the Ford 400:

1) Pick the best intermediate track drivers of the year. You’ll never have better information then you will this week. You’ve just watched 10 months of racing.

2) Practice makes perfect. As is the case with every intermediate track practice (Happy Hour on Friday this week) is what separates the contenders from the pretenders.

3) Pick drivers with momentum. At the end of the season some teams step up their game and others are getting out the golf clubs. Pick the drivers who have looked good in recent weeks.

4) Because of the progressive banking and the ability for passing qualifying is an overrated variable this week

Drivers to watch this week:

Tony Stewart – Now’s not the time to bet against Stewart. He’s a man on a mission and won the last time the series visited an intermediate track. He has won at Homestead before but that win doesn’t hold any relevancy because the track was under a different configuration at the time. His recent history is nothing to brag about but he did finish 8th last year (17th place average running position).

Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion of the Ford 400 and he has six consecutive top seven finishes in NASCAR’s season finale. Last year Edwards recorded a perfect 150 driver rating and led 190 laps. Edwards also might provide vital qualifying points this week. Last year he started second and in 2008 he started fourth. Since 2005 Edwards has a 4.3 average finish (best in series) and a 7.5 average running position (best in series).

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has never won at Homestead but his 3rd (2008), 2nd (2009) and 3rd (2010) in the last three races is pretty impressive. His 2.6 average finish in this stretch is even better than Carl Edwards (3.0). If I were to pick Harvick at any intermediate track on the schedule this is the race I would pick him. In the last three races his average running position (6.3) is tied for the best in the series and no driver has ran more laps in the top fifteen then him (94.8% of laps).

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth won this race in 2007 and more importantly he’s in a Ford. Beyond the Blue Oval brigade theirs only a handful of drivers who will be in the mix for the win at Homestead-Miami. Last season Kenseth finished 9th and had a 7th place average running position. His 107.7 driver rating ranked as the 5th best.

Kasey Kahne – Kahne has been a top tier intermediate track driver throughout the Chase. I don’t expect the Ford 400 to be any different. Last year in his Red Bull Toyota he started on the pole and finished 6th. In the last three intermediate track races he’s finished 3rd (Texas), 4th (Charlotte) and 2nd (Kansas).

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Pre Race Loop Data Book
• Loop Data From Last Years Race
• Chase Statistics
• Past Race Winners / Past Pole Winners
• Entry List
• Schedule of Events

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum Over The Last 5 Races:

1. Tony Stewart
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Jeff Burton
6. Greg Biffle
7. Clint Bowyer
8. AJ Allmendinger
9. Martin Treux Jr.
10. Marcos Ambrose

VegasInsider.com Odds To Win:

• Carl Edwards 5/2
• Tony Stewart 7/2
• Matt Kenseth 7/1
• Jimmie Johnson 8/1
• Kyle Busch 9/1
• Kevin Harvick 10/1
• Jeff Gordon
• Kasey Kahne 18/1
• Greg Biffle 18/1
• Denny Hamlin 18/1

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2011 Kobalt Toos 500 at Phoenix

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Regan Smith	38	12.74
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kasey Kahne	1	14.63
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kasey Kahne	1	16.20
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Regan Smith	38	16.06
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kasey Kahne	1	14.86
Eric McGuire	free agent	Mark Martin	16	16.20
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kasey Kahne	1	15.20
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	1	13.20
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	David Ragan	33	22.31
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Greg Biffle	13	17.00
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	20	12.97
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Martin Trues Jr	20	14.91
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	16	15.31
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	13	13.49
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	13	12.57
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Kasey Kahne	1	13.57
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	1	15.69
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Clint Bowyer	10	14.43

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Kobalt Tools 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	2	12.37
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	3	13.09
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	14	12.66
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	36	13.54
Eric McClung	KFFL	Carl Edwards	2	13.51
Eric McGuire	free agent	Carl Edwards	2	14.77
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	14	13.20
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	19	15.54
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	3	12.74
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	2	12.83
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	14	14.17
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	3	12.43
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	2	11.43
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	36	12.66
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Carl Edwards	2	12.26
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Carl Edwards	2	9.77
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Carl Edwards	2	12.11
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Tony Stewart	3	14.06

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Phoenix 2 – Kobalt Tools 500

As I’m sure you have heard many times by now, Phoenix International Raceway got a face-lift after the race here in February. There’s a great write-up about the changes that Darren Fauth sent me, and if you would like to view that, you can by clicking here. I don’t think anybody really knows what exactly to expect this weekend with the new changes and how the cars will react, though. Ryan Rantz over at ifantasyrace.com believes that the “new” Phoenix will race like Richmond, which is certainly possible. Personally, I think it’s going to race like Indianapolis, but I also don’t think there will be much change in the faces up front from those that were there under the “old” Phoenix. It’s still a flat track, too. Goodyear is bringing the same left tire from Indy and pretty much the same right tire.

During The Last Race At Phoenix…It was a wreck-fest early and many good cars were caught up in it, including pole sitter Carl Edwards, who was most people’s favorite to win the race all weekend. He ended up finishing 28th. As for the front runners, Jeff Gordon led 138 of the 312 laps and out-drove Kyle Busch to win the second race of this 2011 season. Jimmie Johnson ended up 3rd while Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman followed him to the line to round out the top 5.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Tony Stewart – Not much explanation needed here. “Smoke” is, quite simply, on fire, and doesn’t look like he’s going to cool off any time soon. He’s the best driver in the series at Indy (8.1 career average finish in thirteen starts) and Stewart is always a threat on the flat tracks. Remember, he won at New Hampshire in September and Tony has led at least one lap in all but one of the flat track races this season. “Smoke” won in his first career start at “old” Phoenix, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him win in his first career start at “new” Phoenix.

2. Jeff Gordon – The most recent race winner at this track should be expected to be up front on Sunday as well. In the last two weeks, with top 10 finises at both Martinsville and Texas, Gordon has broken out of the slump he was in during October, and you should know by now that he is a great flat track racer. In the six events this season, Gordon’s worst finish has been 11th, and he has collected two wins. At Indianapolis, Jeff has collected four wins in his career.

3. Kyle Busch – No, he’s not going to get parked for the rest of the season, and Joe Gibbs is definitely not going to fire him. You think Kyle is ready to get back behind the wheel this weekend? Nothing would relieve Rowdy’s mind of last week’s debacle faster than a visit to victory lane in the desert on Sunday. Busch has been great on the flat tracks in 2011, collecting top 5s in half of the races and only one finish worse than 11th. As you probably remember, Kyle also won at Phoenix in February, although that 2nd-place finish has been one of only two top 5s at this track in thirteen career starts for NASCAR’s most hated driver. The other one? A victory in 2005 while driving for Hendrick.

4. Carl Edwards – Cousin Carl has two-straight poles at Phoenix and had the best cars in those races, in my opinion, as well. He won the first one (which was at the end of last season), and we all know what happened here in February to the #99. His history at flat tracks isn’t great, but you’d be really foolish to go against Edwards right now. At Indianapolis, he has an average finish of 11th, and at Phoenix, Carl has an average finish of 13th. Edwards hasn’t finished worse than 11th since August at Michigan. That won’t change this weekend.

5. Jimmie Johnson – I didn’t want to rank “Five Time” this high, but his history here is borderline ridiculous and this team has a knack for adapting to a new track faster than the competition. In sixteen career starts at the ‘old’ Phoenix track, Johnson has an average finish of 4.8 (seriously), and with his 3rd-place run here in February, he extended his streak of top 5s to ten straight. Since February 2009, there have been twenty races on flat tracks, and Johnson’s average finish of 8.2 is best in the series. I don’t like his momentum, but it is Jimmie Johnson…

6. Kevin Harvick – If you’re following Ryan’s thinking on Richmond and Phoenix, then Kevin Harvick is going to be a great pick this weekend because he pretty much dominated there in September. At the ‘old’ Phoenix, Kevin was up and down, but lately it’s been more up. As I said before, he finished 4th here in February and in this race last season, Harvick brought the #29 Chevrolet home in 6th. At Indianapolis, Harvick has four top 10s in the last six races and a career average finish of 10th.

7. Ryan Newman – It’s a flat track so you have to keep “The Rocketman” in your mind! In the six races this season, Newman has recorded four top 10s, a 12th, and, most recently, a 25th-place finish at New Hampshire, despite leading 62 laps and starting on the pole. At Indy, Flyin’ Ryan has been a teens driver for the last four years, and while, at Phoenix, he owns a career average finish of 19.3, Newman has three straight top 5s here. If he had a little more momentum I’d say Newman would be a lock for a top 10 on Sunday, but if he seems uncomfortable in practice, don’t be afraid to pass on him this weekend.

8. Kurt Busch – The elder Busch brother won at this track back in 2005 and has recorded five top 10 finishes in the last six races here. On the flat tracks this season, Kurt has been pretty good, ending up in the top 10 in 66% of them. Busch has had a few bad runs at Indianapolis, but does own six finishes of 12th or better in eleven career starts. His average driver rating of 99.8 over the last twenty flat track races is good enough for fourth-best in the series. I’m expecting a solid showing out of Busch and the Double Deuce on Sunday.

9. Greg Biffle – What did we witness last weekend? Is it a sign of things to come? In case you don’t remember, The Biff was junk for most of the race in Texas, but this team worked on the car the whole afternoon and put a full race together, with Biffle ending up with a solid top 5 finish. There’s hope, Biffle fans. Greg started and finished 4th in this race last season, and in the last three flat track races (New Hampshire, Pocono, Indianapolis), he has ended up in the top 10 in each. At Indianapolis, Biffle is a riding a streak of four-straight top 10s. All signs point to a solid, top 10 day for the #16 Ford on Sunday.

10. Brad Keselowski – The last two weekend’s might have scared off most fantasy owners from Brad Keselowski, but I still have faith in the Double Deuce. This team’s ability to work on the car during the race is absolutely amazing, and I know it’s a little early, but I’m excited to see what this team can do next season. As far as this week goes, Brad’s record at Phoenix in the fall is terrible (37th in 2009, 42nd in 2010) but he started 9th and finished 15th here in February, and that was before this team was worth taking a shot with in fantasy. In the last three flat track races, Keselowski has a 9th (at Indianapolis), a win (at Pocono), and a 2nd-place finish (at New Hampshire).

11. Matt Kenseth – He’s not the first driver you think of when the series stops at a flat track, but Matt Kenseth hasn’t been too bad on them this season. In the six flat track races in 2011, Matt has recorded three top 10s and has a worst finish of just 20th. At Indianapolis, Kenseth has recorded six top 12s in the last seven races, and he actually has a win at Phoenix (back in 2002). There’s better picks going into this weekend, but if you want to switch things up and hope you catch some luck, Matt Kenseth wouldn’t be a bad pick on Sunday.

12. Denny Hamlin – Their momentum was shot in Texas last weekend, but to be fair, it was quite simply an off weekend for Joe Gibbs Racing in the lone star state. I do think Hamlin could challenge for a top 10 on Sunday, though, even though his history at Indianapolis (18.5 average finish in six career starts) isn’t stellar. Denny has finished 12th or better in five of the last six Phoenix races, but something has been off with this team on the flat tracks as a whole this season. If he’s not fast in practice, don’t think twice about passing on Hamlin.

13. Mark Martin – Mark “The Kid” Martin has made twenty-nine career starts at Phoenix and has recorded twenty-eight top 20s. Quite impressive. He has also collected nineteen top 10s, twelve top 5s, and visited victory lane twice. I don’t think he’ll have a shot at the win on Sunday, but a solid top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this old timer. He has seven straight finishes of 11th or better at Indianapolis and Martin’s average finish of 12.8 over the last twenty flat track races is sixth-best in the series.

14. Clint Bowyer – Clint has pretty much been a teens driver at the flat tracks this season and I don’t expect that to change very much on Sunday. At Indianapolis, his average finish is 11.8 over six career starts, and from 2008 to early 2010, Bowyer posted four top 12 finishes in five races at Phoenix. His average driver rating of 90.7 over the last twenty flat track races is 11th-best in the series.

15. Martin Truex, Jr. – There’s a few reason’s I like Martin Truex, Jr. as a solid sleeper this weekend. First, he has some momentum. I know it doesn’t mean much with Truex, but after last week’s 8th-place run in Texas, he now has three straight top 10s in Sprint Cup action. Another reason? He wasn’t too bad at Phoenix before it got re-paved. In the last five races here, Martin hasn’t finished worse than 17th and posted a solid 5th-place finish after starting from the pole in this race in the 2009 season. Finally, Truex’s flat track record hasn’t been too bad this season: excluding Indianapolis in July, Martin’s worst finish in the other five races was 16th. Keep your eye on the #56 Toyota in practice.

Those To Avoid Entering The Kobalt Tools 500:

David Reutimann – How would you feel if you knew you were out of a ride after two more races? Normally I’d say that a driver is racing for a ride next season and they could be a good pick, but David Reutimann is an exception. He’s been terrible pretty much all year and has just one finish better than 19th on the flat tracks this season. In the last three Phoenix races, Reutty hasn’t had a driver rating better than 69.4. Better luck in the future, David.

David Ragan – Ragan is another driver that is racing for his Sprint Cup life, but he has been doing so all year. It’s possible that this David will surprise me on Sunday (it has happened a few times this season) but I just don’t see it happening at all. His average finish of 26.1 in nine career starts at Phoenix isn’t great to say the least, and aside from a few decent runs, he’s a mid-twenties driver at best on the flat tracks.

Jamie McMurray – I’m willing to bet that this entire team can’t wait for the 2011 season to end. After last week’s 36th-place finish in Texas last Sunday, McMurray now has five-straight finishes outside of the top 20 in Sprint Cup action, and while his record at Indianapolis is impressive (13.1 career average finish), Jamie has finished in the top 20 in just one of the six flat track races this season.

Scouting Report: Phoenix

How to make an informed pick for the Kobalt Tools 500:

1) Practice will be extremely important this week and luckily we get to see two practice sessions before qualifying (weekend schedule of events). This will not be your typical Phoenix race weekend. The track changed in such significant ways that solely going off past Phoenix information will get you lapped this weekend. In fantasy racing it’s always best to go off the most recent data and none will be more relevant then practice this weekend.

2) Qualifying and track position will be a must at the newly reconfigured Phoenix International Raceway. In all of the driver interviews I’ve seen about the new track surface they all sounded hesitant that a second groove didn’t exist yet. However Phoenix track officials have been hard at work and have been artificially laying down rubber on the track so come race time this might be a non issue (Pictures). On Saturday there will also be a Nationwide race so I think a second groove will come in.

3) Since the new Phoenix layout is substantially different I’m choosing to study Richmond as a good reference point for how to approach Phoenix from a fantasy NASCAR perspective. I think the new layout looks a lot more like Richmond then it does the old Phoenix.

Drivers to watch in the Kobalt Tools 500:

Tony Stewart – Can anyone stop Tony Stewart? I’m guessing not this week. Tony Stewart has spent 4 days testing at Phoenix and the 14 team sounds confident. The determination level of this team can’t be matched and their willing their way to the championship. I know if I were Carl Edwards I would be scared. Stewart finished 7th and 9th at Richmond this year and he had one of the better cars at Phoenix in February.

Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a quick learner and he’ll be a contender for the win in the Kobalt Tools 500. Hopefully you read my post about how I theorize Phoenix will race like Richmond. It will help you understand my fantasy perspective as we venture into the unknown. At Richmond Kevin Harvick won and led more than half the race (202 laps).

Jeff Gordon – Gordon won at the old Phoenix track configuration earlier this year but in NASCAR sometimes the more things change the more they stay the same. I expect Jeff Gordon to be strong once again when the green flag waves in the Kobalt Tools 500. Gordon has been perhaps the best driver in the series on this track type in 2011 and at Richmond he had the field covered in the regular season finale. His downfall was pit road and poor restarts. At Richmond he finished 3rd and had the 5th best driver rating 108.4.

Carl Edwards – Edwards is the defending champion and earlier this year he won the pole at the old Phoenix track configuration. What happened on the old configuration is still viable fantasy information. It may not be as important as studying Richmond but it still has its place. At Richmond in September Carl Edwards was very impressive but the 99 team utilized the wrong pit strategy. He finished second but if Paul Menard didn’t spin bringing out the last caution then he would’ve finished pretty poorly. Edwards had the second best average running position in that race (4th).

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch has tested at the newly reconfigured Phoenix multiple times. At Richmond Kyle Busch is a three-time winner and he’s only finished lower than 16th twice in fourteen races. He won in April and in the regular season finale he finished 6th despite having damage and going a lap down because of a caution during the pit cycle. The last time NASCAR visited a new track Busch emerged the victor.

(NOTE: All of these drivers participated in the August tire test and they all participated in the October open test).

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum over the last five races:

1. Tony Stewart
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Greg Biffle
6. Clint Bowyer
7. Denny Hamlin
8. Kevin Harvick
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Jimmie Johnson

VegasInsider.com Odds to win the Kobalt Tools 500:

• Jimmie Johnson 4/1
• Tony Stewart 5/1
• Jeff Gordon 6/1
• Carl Edwards 7/1
• Greg Biffle 10/1
• Matt Kenseth 10/1
• Denny Hamlin 12/1
• Kyle Busch 12/1
• Kevin Harvick 15/1
• Kurt Busch 15/1

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2011 AAA Texas 500 at TMS

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Greg Biffle	5	12.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	9	15.03
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	5	16.65
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	3	15.41
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	9	15.26
Eric McGuire	free agent	Clint Bowyer	9	16.21
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	David Ragan	12	15.62
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	5	13.56
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	37	22.00
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	9	17.12
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	27	12.76
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	27	14.76
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Greg Biffle	5	15.29
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	3	13.50
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	9	12.56
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Clint Bowyer	9	13.94
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	3	16.12
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kasey Kahne	3	14.56

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: AAA Texas 500 at texas Motor Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	2	12.68
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	2	13.38
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick	13	12.62
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	12.88
Eric McClung	KFFL	Matt Kenseth	4	13.85
Eric McGuire	free agent	Matt Kenseth	4	15.15
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Carl Edwards	2	13.18
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	15.44
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick	13	13.03
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	2	13.15
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	14	14.18
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	4	12.71
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	2	11.71
James Jones	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	2	11.97
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Matt kenseth	4	12.56
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Matt Kenseth	4	10.00
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Matt Kenseth	4	12.41
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Matt Kenseth	4	14.38

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