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Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Tums Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Mark Martin	28	12.21
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	19	15.21
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Mark Martin	28	17.00
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jeff Burton	6	15.79
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	19	15.45
Eric McGuire	free agent	Juan Pablo Montoya	22	16.42
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kasey Kahne	25	15.73
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	22	13.82
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	no pick	44	21.55
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	19	17.36
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	25	12.33
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	11	14.39
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Greg Biffle	15	15.61
James Jones	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	19	13.82
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	19	12.67
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Clint Bowyer	19	14.09
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	25	16.52
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	11	14.91

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Tums Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	9	13.00
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.72
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.61
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	9	13.21
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	2	14.15
Eric McGuire	free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr	7	15.48
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.52
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	27	15.85
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	no pick	44	13.03
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	2	13.48
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	14.18
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	7	12.97
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Carl Edwards	9	12.00
James Jones	On Pit Row	Denny Hamlin	5	12.27
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.82
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	2	10.18
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	3	12.67
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jeff Gordon	3	14.70

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Martinsville 2 – Tums Fast Relief 500

With 60% of the 2011 Chase For The Sprint Cup completed, I think it’d be safe to say that 60% of the Chase field no longer has a chance at winning this year’s championship. The only drivers that I see having a shot of hoisting the title at Homestead-Miami at season’s end are the “Fab Five” in the points right now: Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart, and Kevin Harvick. A minor slip up by any of those drivers this weekend at Martinsville Speedway could take them right out of the equation as well. The Series will resume its ‘normal’ schedule of the 2011 season this weekend, with two practice sessions being held on Friday afternoon followed by qualifying on Saturday. The Tums Fast Relief 500 will start around 1:45 p.m. eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Martinsville…Despite only leading nine laps, although it is his forte, Kevin Harvick beat the fan-favorite Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for his second win of this season in April. Kyle Busch, who led 151 of the 500 laps that day, finished 3rd, while Juan Montoya and Jeff Gordon rounded out the top 5. Pole-sitter Jamie McMurray, who led 31 laps that afternoon, finished 7th.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:
*Chase participants marked in red*

1. Kyle Busch – Now that Kyle Busch’s chances for the championship are pretty much finished, I expect “Rowdy” to go all out for victories, and although he has never won at Martinsville in thirteen career starts, I think it’s possible this weekend. In the last four races at “The Paperclip,” Busch has notched three top 5s, and he led 151 laps here in April (despite only leading 120 in his previous twelve attempts). As usual, though, Kyle is feast or famine at this track: he has six career top 5s compared to five career finishes outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, though, Kyle Busch hasn’t had a driver rating lower than 91.6, and I fully expect him to challenge for the win on Sunday afternoon.

2. Jimmie Johnson – If JJ is going to have any shot at all in getting back in this championship hunt, he must have a good race this Sunday and hope the others catch the bad luck bug. The first part is very possible, but it’s the second that worries me. In the last five races at Martinsville, Johnson hasn’t finished worse than 11th and has an average driver rating of 117.2 (second-best in the series). Over his entire career here (nineteen races), Jimmie has ended up in victory lane six times and has an average finish of 5.6. He finished 35th here in his first start at “The Paperclip,” but in the eighteen races since then, “Five Time” has led 1,616 laps and his worst finish has been 11th. It’s safe to say that the #48 should be pretty good this weekend.

3. Kevin Harvick – What’s interesting about Kevin Harvick is that he wasn’t really great at Martinsville Speedway until recently. As you probably remember, “Happy” won the race here in April, and in this race last season he finished 3rd despite starting 36th. In his last eight starts here, Harvick has seven finishes of 12th or better, which is pretty good considering in his first eight starts here, Kevin had just two finishes in the top 10. Harvick’s career average finish of 16.5 at “The Paperclip” shouldn’t scare you away, and he should improve it on Sunday.

4. Jeff Gordon – Jeff Gordon is pretty much a lock for fantasy owners when it comes to a race at Martinsville. He has made thirty-seven starts at this race track and come away with thirty top 10s (including seven visits to victory lane). He also has seven poles to his name and not a single DNF has been registered for Gordon at this track. He stumbled in this race last season (20th) but Gordon has twelve top 5s in the last thirteen Martinsville races (seriously). He has also led at least 36 laps in each of the last ten.

5. Denny Hamlin - We all know the story of the #11 team in the 2011 season: they’re running okay, but nowhere near where they should be, especially at the tracks where they should be dominant (like Pocono and here at Martinsville, for example). In April, Hamlin finished 12th after starting 5th and leading 89 laps, which isn’t bad, but when you look at the fact that he won the three previous races entering that event, it’s not as impressive. In fact, that 12th-place finish in April has been Denny’s worst since 2006, where he finished 37th after starting 41st and getting in an accident. Hamlin has the potential to win on Sunday (his average finish of 6.6 in twelve career starts here shows that) but judging by the way his season has gone thus far, I just don’t see it happening. In fact, this 5th-place ranking may be a bit too high, too. I guess we’ll find out…

6. Carl Edwards - If Cousin Carl is going to make my pre-season prediction of being the 2011 champion come true, he’s going to need a not-so-normal run this weekend in Martinsville, Virginia. Roush-Fenway isn’t great at “The Paperclip,” and Edwards is no exception: in fourteen starts here, he has just one top 5 finish and a total of four top 10s. Also, Carl has led a grand total of three laps in his career here, and all three were in the April race earlier this season. He does have two 8th-place finishes in the last three races at Martinsville, though, so there’s something positive for those looking to pick Carl Edwards this weekend. Other than that, all you really have is his momentum (worst finish of 11th in the last nine Sprint Cup races).

7. Brad Keselowski – Unless you really hate this kid, chances are you are happy at the fact that “Bad Brad” is right in the thick of things for this championship. Sitting at third in the points, Keselowski is coming to a track that is (statistically) his sixth-best on the circuit. In his first career starts at Martinsville, Brad completed all 508 laps and finished 12th after starting 30th. He followed that up in this race last season with a 10th-place finish, also completing 100% of the laps ran. When the series stopped here in April, though, Keselowski finished 19th, two laps down. However, that was back when this team looked like their “normal self.” I’m expecting a career day for BK at “The Paperclip” on Sunday, and it wouldn’t be very far fetched to see him close in on the points lead once the checkered flag waves.

8. Clint Bowyer – NASCAR’s most recent winner will come into a track this weekend that he has found some success at in the past. In eleven career starts at Martinsville, Clint has notched seven finishes of 11th or better and owns an average finish of 14.7. He led 91 laps in the spring race and, surprisingly, those have been his only laps led at this track. In the last two fall races here, though, Bowyer has finishes of 19th and 38th. However, I like how this team is running, and in the last five races here, Clint has the seventh-best average driver rating of anyone in the series.

9. Ryan Newman – Despite finishes of 30th and 20th in the last two Martinsville races, “The Rocketman” still has the eight-best average driver rating in the last five races here, so those weren’t due to the fact that he raced bad (Newman started 4th and 2nd in those races, respectively). Before that, Ryan had three-straight top 10s at “The Paperclip,” and in nineteen career starts here, Newman has an average finish of 14.6 and just four finishes outside of the top 20. I would second-guess picking him, though, if both him and his owner, Tony Stewart, appear to be struggling in practice on Friday. Newman has started 4th or better in three of the last four Martinsville races.

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – This is actually a pretty good race track for Junior, and with a little luck, it’s possible that he finally breaks his win-less streak on Sunday (I said possible, not probable). In twenty-three starts at Martinsville, Earnhardt has twelve top 10s to his name, and nine of those have also been top 5s. In the last five races at “The Paperclip,” Junior has the tenth-best average driver rating and an average finish of 12.2. Also, since joining Hendrick Motorsports, NASCAR’s Golden Boy has made seven starts at this track and has just one finish worse than 15th.

11. Jamie McMurray – This is about the only place you can really trust Jamie Mac to give you a decent finish (this season, anyway). In seventeen career starts, McMurray has notched ten top 10s and an average finish of 15.7. Of those ten, though, only one has been a top 5, which was a 2nd-place effort in 2004. In the last five races at Martinsville, Jamie has four finishes of 11th or better and he had the sixth-best driver rating during the race here in April, where McMurray finished 7th after starting on the pole.

12. Matt Kenseth – Like I said with his team mate, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, who isn’t great at Martinsville, will also need to have a solid run this weekend to keep his championship hopes alive. In twenty-three starts at “The Paperclip,” the 2003 NASCAR champ has just two top 5s to his name and an average finish of 15.8. In the last four races here, though, Kenseth hasn’t finished worse than 18th and he brought the #17 Ford home in 6th in the race earlier this year. He has completed 99% of the laps ran, so he’s not terrible at this track, but you won’t find Matt dominating on Sunday (only 68 total laps led in his career here).

13. Joey Logano – Statistically, this is Sliced Bread’s second-best track on the circuit, and that doesn’t really surprise me due to the fact of how well the Gibbs Toyotas have ran at “The Paperclip” lately. Logano’s first start at Martinsville ended with him in 32nd, but in the four races since, Joey has an average finish of 8.3 and has completed all but one lap ran. Around this time last year was when Logano went on his hot streak to end the 2010 season.

14. Juan Montoya – If you want a really risky pick with high reward potential this weekend, Juan Montoya is your man. But then again, when isn’t he a risky pick with high reward potential? Anyway, in nine career starts at Martinsville, JPM has an average finish of 13.9 and just one finish outside of the top 20. In the last four races here, Montoya has 3rd and 4th-place finishes to go along with 19th and 26th-place efforts. Don’t be afraid to give Juan a shot if the #42 Chevrolet looks good in practice on Friday.

15. Jeff Burton – With his season-best 2nd-place finish last week at Talladega, Jeff Burton now has four top 15s in the last six Sprint Cup races, and he hasn’t finished worse than 21st in that span. At Martinsville, Jeff has made thirty-four career starts and owns an average finish of 14.9 with fifteen top 10s. He finished 24th here in April but that has been Burton’s first finish outside of the top 20 here since 2006. I think he’ll have a little momentum coming into this weekend and Jeff Burton should be a good top 15 pick, and with a little luck could notch a top 10.

Those To Avoid Entering The Tums Fast Relief 500:

Greg Biffle – Most of the Roush-Fenway stable struggles at Martinsville, but The Biff may be the worst of them all. In seventeen career starts here, Biffle has just two top 10s and an average finish of 22.9. Also, despite having three top 5 starts six races at this track, Greg has only led 15 laps of the 3,013 ran. A top 10 would be considered a win for this team this weekend.

Kurt Busch – It surprises me how much the elder Busch brother struggles at this track considering how well he has been at Bristol, another short track, in the past. In twenty-two starts at “The Paperclip,” Kurt has just four (four!) top 10s, and he hasn’t finished there since 2005. Busch won at Martinsville in 2002, but that was then and this is now. He has finished between 16th and 18th in four of the last five races here. Expect the same out of the Double Deuce this weekend.

Kasey Kahne – I very well could change my mind about this depending on how the #4 Toyota looks in practice, but going into this race I’m going to avoid Kasey Kahne even though he has been running very well over the past month. At Martinsville Speedway, though, it’s a different story for KK. He has a runner-up finish to his credit here (back in 2005), but that is only one of two top 10s for Kahne in fifteen career starts here. He started 3rd here in April but had a teens-at-best car before wrecking with Martin Truex, Jr. and finishing 39th.

Scouting Report: Martinsville

How to make an informed pick for Martinsville:

The best method for making an informed fantasy pick for Martinsville is to study drivers average finishes. I know it doesn’t sound glamorous, but that’s what really counts this week. This is a drivers track where the man behind the wheel in the difference maker.

Starting position is important at Martinsville but don’t get to hyped up about it. The overall importance of qualifying at Martinsville can easily be debunked. The best drivers win at Martinsville, not the best starting position.

Here’s how I would rank the variables in terms of importance this week

1) Recent / Overall Track History at Martinsville

2) Practice

3) Momentum

4) Starting Position

Martinsville Top Tier Elite Drivers:

Jeff Gordon – The Chase has been a huge disappointment for Gordon and now that he’s semi officially “done” I think he’ll bounce back in a big way. All year-long Gordon has been good on the shorter tracks in the circuit (Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire) and this is his best track . Before Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin started winning all the races at Martinsville Gordon was the driver to beat. Gordon is a 7-7-7 driver at Martinsville. 7 wins, 7th place average finish and 7th place average start.

Jimmie Johnson – 2011 hasn’t been a typical year for Jimmie Johnson. Even his 11th place finish (caught speeding on pit road late, led 65 laps) at Martinsville earlier this year was out of the norm for him. It marked his first non-top ten finish at Martinsville since his first race here in 2002. Look for the six-time winner to be one of a handful of drivers who will be contenders for the win in the Tums Fast Relief 500.

Denny Hamlin – Nothing has been good for Denny Hamlin as of late but Martinsville should be like medicine to him. Since 2007 Hamlin has four wins and an impressive 3.5 average finish. His worst finish in this stretch is 12th and he’s led 1,010 laps. In April Hamlin had an average running position of fifth and he posted the second best driver rating (118.7). Hamlin will be getting a little extra practice this week because he’ll be racing Kyle Busch’s Truck in the Camping World Truck Series.

Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch and the 18 team have been exceptional at Martinsville as of late. They’re also a great picking alternative to get out of sync with the competition if you need to pull off a fantasy NASCAR “Hail Mary”. Kyle Busch has been a serious contender in the last four Martinsville races. In these races he’s finished 4th, 4th, 3rd and 22nd. His finish of 22nd was the result of a late wreck (Yahoo Race Chart). In April Kyle Busch led the most laps (151), had the best driver rating (133.4), and had the best average running position (3rd).

Kevin Harvick – In April Harvick proved why he’s called the “Closer” with his late pass for the win. It was pretty impressive considering his average running position was 16th. In the last three Martinsville races Harvick has been as good as anybody. Last fall he finished 3rd but in the 2010 spring race he finished 35th. In the 100 laps he completed he was pretty good though (Yahoo Chart). Despite only completing 20% of the laps his driver rating was the 7th best.

Martinsville Top Front Runner (after the Elite Top Tier)

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has finished in the top eleven in seven of the last nine Martinsville races. Earlier this year he led 91 laps (18.2% of the race) and finished 9th. After the “Top Tier Elites” I think Bowyer presents a good fantasy alternative.

Martinsville Back Runners who you should avoid:

Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Paul Menard, Martin Truex Jr., David Reutimann and Marcos Ambrose

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Momentum Over the last five races:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Kasey Kahne
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Tony Stewart
6. Kyle Busch
7. Brian Vickers
8. Clint Bowyer
9. Jeff Burton
10. Kevin Harvick

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Pre Race Loop Data
• Post Race Loop Data from earlier this year
• Short Track Competition Profile
• Entry List

VegasInsider.com Odds To Win:

• Jimmie Johnson 4/1
• Denny Hamlin 5/1
• Kyle Busch 6/1
• Kevin Harvick 7/1
• Tony Stewart 7/1
• Jeff Gordon 8/1
• Carl Edwards 12/1
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
• Ryan Newman 20/1
• Kurt Busch 22/1

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Good Sam Club 500 at Talladega

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	28	11.72
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	1	15.09
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Clint Bowyer	1	16.66
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Landon Cassil	16	16.09
Eric McClung	KFFL	Clint Bowyer	1	15.34
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jamie McMurray	29	16.25
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Clint Bowyer	1	15.44
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Trevor Bayne	15	13.56
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	29	20.84
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	1	17.31
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	David Ragan	28	11.94
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	David Gilliland	22	14.50
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Joey Logano	24	15.63
James Jones	On Pit Row	Joey Logano	24	13.66
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	1	12.47
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Clint Bowyer	1	13.94
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Mark Martin	20	16.25
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	David Ragan	28	15.03

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Good Sam Club 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Jimmie Johnson		12.71
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson		13.71
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kevin Harvick		12.32
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr		12.97
Eric McClung	KFFL	Kevin Harvick		13.97
Eric McGuire	free agent	Dale Earnhardt Jr		15.45
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kevin Harvick		13.29
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kevin Harvick		14.97
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray		11.52
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Dale Earnhardt Jr		13.48
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards		14.68
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson		12.74
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch		11.42
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch		11.74
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson		12.74
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson		9.94
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson		12.55
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kevin Harvick		14.52

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Talladega 2 – Good Sam Club 500

After this weekend’s race at Talladega Superspeedway, I think we will be able to confidently eliminate about half of the Chase field’s hopes for winning the championship, and maybe even more. The races at these super-speedways are nearly impossible to predict, so as I did in my previous Daytona and Talladega previews, I will be switching up the format for this week’s article. Although I view them as borderline worthless, there are two practice sessions scheduled for Friday afternoon and the starting lineup will be set on Saturday afternoon. The Good Sam Club 500 is set to start around 2:15 eastern time on Sunday.

During The Last Race At Talladega…The five-time champ Jimmie Johnson got a push by 4th-place finisher (and team-mate) Dale Earnhardt, Jr. to get his first victory of this 2011 season and second at Talladega. Clint Bowyer, who led the most laps that day (38), finished runner-up, with Jeff Gordon ending up 3rd. Kevin Harvick, who started 38th that day, rounded out the top 5.

My Views On The Chasers:

Carl Edwards – Cousin Carl is actually one of the more consistent drivers when it comes to the restrictor plate race tracks. In the last eleven races at either Talladega or Daytona, Edwards has the best average finish of anyone in the series (13.5) and only one DNF. However, until his 6th-place finish at ‘Dega in April, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find Carl’s last top 10 here. His career average finish here of 20.9 is nothing stellar, but I think the #99 Ford should be in the top 10 by the end of the race on Sunday.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is always a good pick when it comes to the big tracks and his career average finish of 14.3 at Talladega backs that up. What’s even more impressive to me is that he doesn’t have one single DNF here in twenty-one career starts. Kevin won the April race in last season and is on a streak of three-straight top 5s at Talladega. He also has six top 10s in the last seven restrictor plate races.

Matt Kenseth – You won’t find Kenseth on my rosters this weekend, I’ll tell you that, even though I usually like the most recent winners when it comes to fantasy racing. He has just five top 10s in twenty-three career starts at Talladega and hasn’t finished there since this race in 2006.

Kyle Busch – Despite having the third-best average driver rating in the past five races at Talladega, Kyle Busch is pretty risky pick on the big tracks. His average finish in thirteen races here is 24.2, but he has led at least one lap in nine of the last ten. If he starts in the top ten on Sunday, though, I’d think about giving Busch a shot: last season he started 6th in the April race last season and finished 9th, won the April race in 2008 after starting 5th, and finished 11th in the October race in 2006 after starting 6th.

Tony Stewart – “Smoke” used to be an awesome pick when the series stopped at a restrictor plate track, but now I’d just put him in the “kind of good” category. He finished 17th here in April, and in the two Daytona races this season he ended up 13th and 11th. In those three races, though, Stewart has led a combined total of one lap. Since his win here in the October race in 2008, Tony hasn’t finished better than 16th. I think there are much better picks than “Smoke” this weekend.

Brad Keselowski – If “Bad Brad” wants to make it known that he’s serious about this championship run, he better have a good run on Sunday–and it’s not impossible that that will happen. As you may or may not remember, Keselowski made his first start at ‘Dega in 2009 driving the #09 car for Phoenix Racing. He started 9th in that race, and despite only leading one lap in that race, he led the most important: the final one. Since then, Brad has made four starts at ‘Dega and has ended up with two top 10s and has led at least three laps in all races. He struggled in the first two restrictor plate races of the 2011 season, but Keselowski finished 15th in the second Daytona race.

Kurt Busch – I’m assuming BK’s dancing partner on Sunday will be the elder Busch brother, so if one has a good race you can reasonably expect the other to as well. Kurt won both the Shootout as well as his Duel race in Daytona earlier this year and is considered by many as the best restrictor plate driver to never win a race. Over the last eleven races on them, Busch has the best average driver rating (96.4). He has completed 96.5% of the laps ran in his twenty-one starts at Talladega, which is very impressive.

Jimmie Johnson – I usually don’t like JJ at all in the spring race at Talladega (I actually had him on my Avoid list for the first race here, which he ended up winning) but the fall race is completely different. Johnson has four-straight top 10s in the October race here, and if he wants to win a sixth-straight championship, Jimmie will need a great run on Sunday, which is very possible.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – We all know the story of Junior at the restrictor plate race tracks. He pushed his team-mate, Jimmie Johnson, to the win here in April, and if they work together again on Sunday, I’m expecting top 5s out of both once again. Earnhardt has the best average driver rating (102.1) over the last five races here and he has just two finishes worse than 13th in the last seven races at Talladega. Junior’s average driver rating of 90.2 over the last eleven restrictor plate races is fourth-best in the series.

Ryan Newman – This is another reason I don’t like Tony Stewart this weekend: his team-mate, “The Rocketman.” Over the past five races at Talladega, Newman has an average finish (24.4) that is worse than Robby Gordon (23.8)…seriously. Ryan’s 3rd-place effort here in 2009 is his only bright spot in the last six races, as he hasn’t finished better than 23rd in the other five. I can say with near certainty that Newman will be out of championship contention once the race is over on Sunday.

Jeff Gordon – In the last five restrictor plate races, Gordon has notched four top 10s and has led laps in all five. At Talladega specifically, Jeff has finished in the top 10 in the last two races, but those are his only finishes better than 19th since he won both races here in 2007. Over his entire career here (thirty-seven races), Gordon has visited victory lane six times and has an average finish of 16.1.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is hit-or-miss at Talladega, so keep that in mind if you pick him this weekend. In eleven career starts here, has has notched four top 10s, but those are also Denny’s only top 20s here, bringing his average finish down to 18.7. In the three restrictor plate races this season, Hamlin has finished 21st, 23rd, and 13th.

The Non-Chasers I’m Keeping My Eye On:

Clint Bowyer – Clint won this race last season after starting 2nd and with his 2nd-place finish here in April, he now has three-straight top 10s at Talladega. What’s impressive to me, though, is that in the last eight races here, Bowyer has finished worse than 12th just once. He has the fifth-best average driver rating (88.6) over the last five races here.

Kasey Kahne – Kasey Kahne has two 2nd-place finishes to his name in fifteen career starts at Talladega Superspeedway, but those are his only top 10s as well. However, you can’t overlook the fact that he has had some super fast Toyotas for the past few weeks. He’ll probably work with his team-mate, Brian Vickers, on Sunday, who since joining Red Bull Racing in 2007 has three finishes of 13th or better at Talladega, but also four finishes of 29th or worse.

Greg Biffle – The Biff’s stats at restrictor plate tracks won’t blow you away, but he’s quite consistent. In the last eleven races on them, Biffle has finished outside of the top 20 just once, although he has just two top 10s. At Talladega, he hasn’t finished worse than 19th since 2008 and has notched three top 10s in that five-race span.

David Ragan – Well in case you didn’t believe it before, the second Daytona race this season proved that Ragan is a legitimate contender at the restrictor plate tracks. At Talladega, David has an average finish of 17th in nine career starts and has notched three top 10s. He has the ninth-best average driver rating in the last five races here.

Juan Montoya – If you’re looking for a high risk, high reward driver, Montoya is your guy. In the last three Talladega races, Juan has two top 5s to his name, and he finished 2nd here in 2008. His career average finish of 16.4 here is actually tenth-best in the series. Also, over the last eleven restrictor plate races, Montoya has the second-best average finish (13.6) and six top 10s. He should be working with team-mate Jamie McMurray, who can get to the front at these tracks.

Joey Logano – Joey has just six top 10s this season and one of those came in the first race at ‘Dega, where he finished 10th after starting 36th. Surprisingly, though, Talladega is Logano’s second-best track on the circuit. In five career starts here, “Sliced Bread” has notched four top 10s and completed all but twelve laps. Who knows, maybe his 12th-place run last week in Charlotte will give the youngster some momentum heading into this weekend.

Trevor Bayne – We all know how Trevor won the Daytona 500 to kick of this 2011 season (as well as the ensuing Bayne-mania) but he finished 40th in his first start at ‘Dega and was out of the second Daytona race this year after just four laps. He should have the car to get a solid top 10 for fantasy owners on Sunday, but you better hope he doesn’t wreck.

David Gilliland – No, I’m not joking here. In the three restrictor plate races in 2011, Gilliland has started 39th, but he finished 3rd in the season-opening Daytona 500 and followed that up with a 9th-place effort at Talladega in April. In the second Daytona race, David finished 16th. What can I say, I guess the guy knows how to stay out of the wrecks.

Scouting Report: Talladega

How to make an informed pick at Daytona:

1) Starting with this years Bud Shootout we entered a new era of restrictor plate racing. The distinction between between what happened last year and what’s happening this year is tremendous. That’s why I think it’s really important to study the three plate races this year. That’s the main focus I used when I wrote my Talladega Fantasy Preview.

2) At restrictor plate tracks and others venues where the attrition rate is high I like to pick drivers who have momentum. Drivers who are in slumps are often “crash magnets” at Talladega.

3) Practice is going to be important this week. No one’s 100% certain how this race will play out because of the rules changes. One element you want to focus on in practice is who drivers will potentially be partnering up with.

4) There’s no need to focus on qualifying at all this week. Driving up the front at Talladega is an easy task.

Drivers to watch in the Talladega Good Sam Club 500:

Kevin Harvick – There’s not a safer pick you can make at Talladega then Kevin Harvick. In April Harvick finished 5th and worked heavily with Clint Bowyer. I expect this duo to work together again and have similar results. Another advantage for Harvick is that he’ll have three teammates who are all committed to helping him succeed. Last year at Talladega Harvick finished 1st and 2nd.

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson won in April and he worked with none other than Dale Earnhardt Jr. Johnson has been an extremely safe pick in the Talladega Chase race for years now (4 consecutive top tens). His non-racing strategy until the end has really worked out well for him. Johnson might also be worth valuable qualifying points this week as well. In May he started second in what was a Hendrick 1-2-3-4 sweep of the top four spots on qualifying day.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski isn’t a one time wonder at Talladega. He also has two other top tens to his name. At tracks like Talladega everyone wants to partner up with someone who’s successful and I think more drivers than ever will be willing to help him out. Look for him to partner up with Kurt Busch. This duo will be formidable on Sunday and will certainly contend for the win.

Kurt Busch – In the three restrictor plate races this year Kurt Busch has the best driver rating (103.8) and he’s averaged 32.6 points a race. Penske is a two car team and as expected I’m projecting his draft partner will be Brad Keselowski. I’ve said this in probably all of my restrictor plate fantasy previews but Kurt Busch in the best plate racer who’s never won a points paying race. During Speed Weeks he won the Bud Shootout but that doesn’t pay any points.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – How can anyone not like Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Talladega? It’s the patriotic thing to do. He hasn’t won since 2004 but he’s still a solid driver. One big plus about Junior is that he’ll most likely be working with Jimmie Johnson again and I don’t think he’ll have any problems. In April Junior started 4th.

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Talladega Pre Race Loop Data Book
• Loop Data From The Most Recent Talladega Race
• Drivers Talladega Averages Since 2009
• Past Race Winners / Pole Winners
• Entry List

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Driver Momentum:

1. Carl Edwards
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Kasey Kahne
5. Tony Stewart
6. Brad Keselowski
7. Kyle Busch
8. Kurt Busch
9. Jimmie Johnson
10. David Ragan

Videos about what drivers are saying about Talladega:

• Jeff Gordon says drivers will have to swap positions more often at Talladega Superspeedway
• Harvick thinks cars will run closer together at Talladega because of the recent rule changes
• Jimmie Johnson believes there will be more passing at Talladega Superspeedway
• Matt Kenseth says you need a good partner at Talladega Superspeedway to succeed
• Jimmie Johnson says only practice can determine how different Talladega will be this time around

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: 2011 Bank of America 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Kasey Kahne	4	11.19
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Joey Logano	12	15.55
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Kasey Kahne	4	17.16
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	17	16.10
Eric McClung	KFFL	David Ragan	11	15.81
Eric McGuire	free agent	Mark Martin	37	15.84
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Kasey Kahne	4	15.90
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	4	13.52
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	27	20.58
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Mark Martin	37	17.84
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	4	11.42
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	4	14.26
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Clint Bowyer	24	15.35
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	15	13.32
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Kasey Kahne	4	12.84
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Greg Biffle	15	14.35
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kasey Kahne	4	16.13
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Kasey Kahne	4	14.61

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Bank of America 500

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	3	12.71
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jimmie Johnson	34	13.71
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Matt Kenseth	1	12.32
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	8	12.97
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	34	13.97
Eric McGuire	free agent	Jimmie Johnson	34	15.45
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	34	13.29
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	1	14.97
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Dale Earnhardt Jr	19	11.52
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	34	13.48
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	34	14.68
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	34	12.74
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brad Keselowski	16	11.42
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kyle Busch	2	11.74
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	34	12.74
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Jimmie Johnson	34	9.94
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jimmie Johnson	34	12.55
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	34	14.52

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