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Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Dover 2 – AAA 400

Race number three of the 2011 Sprint Cup Series Chase is set to start around 2:15 pm eastern time on Sunday at Dover International Speedway. 400 laps are set to be run around this 1.0-mile race track after two practice sessions (on Friday) and qualifying (on Saturday) are completed. This will be the second–and final–race of the season at “The Monster Mile” and hopefully (in my mind at least) we don’t see mileage become a factor on Sunday. The last two races here have each had at least ten different leaders so we shouldn’t see one dominant driver this weekend.

During The Last Race At Dover…Jimmie Johnson sat on the pole for the race here in May and led 207 of the 400 laps but ended up finishing 9th. Matt Kenseth, who started 24th and led just 33 laps, took the checkered flag and was followed to the line by Mark Martin, who started 25th, and Marcos Ambrose. Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers rounded out the top 5. The only drivers who have finished in the top 10 in both races at Dover in 2010 as well as the race here in May are Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The AAA 400:
*Chase participants are marked in red*

1. Jimmie Johnson – Going into this weekend, I normally wouldn’t rank the #48 team number one because of how off they have been thus far in the 2011 Chase. However, Jimmie Johnson’s record in the last five races at Dover has been nothing short of amazing. He owns an average driver rating of 140.6, which, mind you, the maximum is 150.0, has visited victory lane three times and has led 1,192 of the 2,000 laps ran. “Five Time” also has won three poles in that span. His overall average finish here is 9.6 in nineteen starts and has just six finishes outside of the top 10. If he wants to seriously pursue a sixth-straight championship, Jimmie Johnson needs to at least have a top 5 on Sunday, which should be (somewhat) easily obtainable.

2. Carl Edwards – Believe it or not, Cousin Carl has the best average finish at Dover (7.6) of anyone in the series. In fourteen career starts here, Edwards has never finished worse than 18th–which came in his first start–and has completed all but 4 of the 5604 laps ran in those races. He has nine top 10s in the last ten races at “The Monster Mile” and Carl wound up in victory lane here in 2007 after leading 95 laps and starting 15th. As you may or may not know, Edwards has five straight top 10s in the last five Sprint Cup races, and I wouldn’t bet against him getting a sixth-straight on Sunday, and maybe even a second win at Dover.

3. Matt Kenseth – The most recent winner at Dover has started out this year’s Chase in a surprising way: he had a great car at Chicago but a penalty put Kenseth a lap down at the end, and he lucked into a 6th-place finish at Loudon, which is one of his worst tracks. Well, unless the peculiar-ness continues on Sunday, expect a good run from this #17 team at “The Monster Mile”. Matt has made twenty-five attempts at this 1.0-mile race track and has came away with sixteen top 10 finishes and only six finishes outside of the top 20, giving him an average finish of 12.4. As I said before, Kenseth won the race here in May, and he also won the June race in 2006 at this race track. In the last seven races at Dover, that #17 Ford has finished in the top 5 in six of them. I like this team’s odds of making it seven-for-eight.

4. Kyle Busch – Over the last five races at this track, “Rowdy” Busch owns the fourth-best average driver rating but just the tenth-best average finish. He’s a bit hit-or-miss here, but when Kyle is on his game, he’s an excellent choice in fantasy (as usual). In thirteen career starts, Busch has recorded eight top 10 finishes–which were all top 5s, by the way–but also four finishes outside of the top 20. He won here in 2008 and 2010 and has an average career finish of right around 14th at Dover.

5. Jeff Gordon – Just an FYI, in case you haven’t noticed, Jeff Gordon has seven finishes of 6th or better in the last nine Sprint Cup races. It’s never a good idea to go against a hot driver, and I wouldn’t recommend leaving the #24 Chevrolet off of your roster this weekend. In thirty-seven career starts at Dover, Gordon owns four wins and has recorded twenty-one top 10 finishes. He’s stumbled at this track recently (Gordon’s last top 10 here came four races ago) but I fully expect this team to turn their luck around here on Sunday. Jeff has led the most laps (2,231) at Dover than anyone in the circuit.

6. Tony Stewart – Before the Chase started, I probably would have bet my entire life savings plus whatever money I would earn in my future that “Smoke” wouldn’t win the first two races. I’m glad I didn’t make that mistake. Suddenly this team looks championship-caliber and in the last five Sprint Cup races they have finished in the top 10 four times. Stewart isn’t great at “The Monster Mile” but he won both races here in 2000 and never finished worse than 11th in his first twelve starts at this track. He has stumbled recently here, but Tony’s average finish at Dover is 12.5.

7. Kevin Harvick – “Happy” Harvick’s best career finish at this 1.0-mile race track has been 3rd, which came in 2006, but he hasn’t been terrible at Dover at all. Kevin’s average finish of 16.9 may scare people away, but in the last six races here, he has finished 12th or better in four of them and his worst finish has been 17th. He won’t challenge for the win on Sunday, but I think this #29 Chevrolet should be a solid pick for a top 10, though. Just don’t expect much more: in twenty-one Dover races, Harvick has just two top 5s.

8. Ryan Newman – I can’t give you many reasons not to pick “The Rocketman” this weekend, especially in allocation leagues, and it’s hard to go against him in Dover. Newman has four top 10s in the last six Sprint Cup races and had a great car last week in Loudon but finished 25th. Statistically this is Ryan’s best track on the circuit and he owns three victories in nineteen career starts at “The Monster Mile”. His average finish of 11th at Dover is good enough for third in the series behind Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. Newman hasn’t been great here recently, but he does have three top 10s in the last five Dover races. Unless he starts 25th or worse, “The Rocketman” should be a good pick on Sunday.

9. Kurt Busch – In the last five Dover races, the elder Busch brother has the fifth-best average driver rating along with an average finish of 9.4. Over his career here, though, luck hasn’t been on Kurt’s side as much at this 1.0-mile race track. In twenty-two starts here, Busch has just seven top 10s and a best finish of 4th, which came in 2006. His average finish of 18.7 isn’t stellar, but since 2009 Kurt’s only finishes outside of the top 10 have been 14th and 19th. As always, watch him in practice, but going into the weekend I see the “Double Deuce” as a top 10 car.

10. Brad Keselowski - BK’s crazy season just keeps on getting crazier (and nearly insane). Brad has two top 5 finishes in the two Chase races thus far, and if he has a little better car than he has had in recent weeks, Keselowski may be able to grab a third-straight without the help of a fuel mileage gamble. Brad finished 3rd here back in May, which, by the way, was the 12th race of the 2011 season and way before he went on his hot streak. It was also the race after BK got his first top 10 of the season, which was his 3rd-place effort in Charlotte. Keselowski’s other two starts at “The Monster Mile” have ended in 18th and 22nd-place finishes, and he has completed 99.7% of the laps ran. It’s hard to go against a guy that hasn’t finished worse than 12th in Sprint Cup action since mid-July.

11. Clint Bowyer – Is it just me, or does it seem like when a driver is about to announce switching to a new team, or has announced it, the team (overall) performs better? It might just be me, but despite not getting the finishes, Bowyer has had some pretty fast Chevrolets underneath him in the last few weeks. At Dover, Clint owns an average finish of 14.8 in eleven career starts and he ended up a career-best 6th here in May. He’s only led 33 laps on this 1.0-mile race track but Bowyer has completed 99.5% of the laps ran in the eleven races he has participated in.

12. A.J. Allmendinger – If you remember the last race at Dover, you probably remember just how awesome of a Ford A.J. Allmendinger was piloting that day. He started on the outside pole and had a legitimate shot to win but his engine blew just 166 laps into the race, which disappointed fantasy owners because many–myself included–took The Dinger in many leagues, hoping for the best. However, that run in May was no fluke: before that, A.J. knocked out three-straight finishes of 14th or better at “The Monster Mile” and two of them were top 10s, including his career best of 7th here in September 2009. He disappointed me mightily last week in Loudon, but they key to being successful in fantasy racing is having a short memory. Expect A.J. to have a good weekend in Dover.

13. Mark Martin – As with any other race this season, it’s going to be hit-or-miss with Mark Martin and the #5 team on Sunday, but going into the weekend I’m expecting a solid top 15 out of the old man. He has two runner-up finishes in the last four Dover races and hasn’t finished worse than 15th at Dover in the last five. This Sunday will mark Martin’s fifty-first career start at “The Monster Mile,” and in the previous fifty, he has recorded four wins and an average finish of 12.3.

14. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Junior hasn’t had a top 10 at Dover since 2007, but they’ve had some great cars (so he says) in the first two Chase races, and with a little bit of luck, Earnhardt could find himself right back in the middle of the championship hunt. Earnhardt has an average finish of 17.8 in twenty-three career starts at Dover, and he even visited victory lane here back in 2001 after starting 3rd and leading 193 laps. He finished 12th here in May but that is only one of two finishes better than 20th in the last seven races at Dover for Junior. Watch the #88 in practice.

15. Greg Biffle – The Biff has two victories at “The Monster Mile” and owns an average finish of 11.4 in eighteen starts at this 1.0-mile race track. Lately, though, Biffle hasn’t been his normal self, with just one top 10 in the last four races here and two straight finishes of 19th. He cranked of six straight top 6 finishes here between 2006 and 2009, though, so Greg definitely knows how to tame this beast–to an extent.

Those To Avoid Entering The AAA 400:

Marcos Ambrose - Marcos’ 3rd-place effort here in May is impressing, but that’s the only bright spot on his resume at Dover International Speedway. Ambrose has an average finish of 24.4 when you take out that run and his best finish over the last month has been 19th. I like Marcos as a long shot on short tracks, but unless you really need to make up some major ground in your fantasy league I wouldn’t even think about picking the #9 Ford this weekend.

Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers – I said last week that I have written off the Red Bull teams for the rest of the season, and although they didn’t end up too bad in New Hampshire, I doubt lightning will strike twice for these teams this weekend. Kahne has three top 10s in fifteen career starts while Vickers has two in thirteen. The average finish of these two is 24th and 20th, respectively.

Denny Hamlin – Did this team put so much effort (three straight top 10s) into getting in the Chase that they are completely spent now that the ten-race playoff has started? It sure seems like it. Hamlin followed up his 31st-place effort at Chicago with a 29th-place finish at New Hampshire and the series is visiting a track this week that Denny has had some trouble with in the past: in eleven career starts at “The Monster Mile,” Hamlin has just two top 5s and an average finish of 20.9. This is his second-worst track on the circuit behind Daytona.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: AAA 400 at Dover Downs

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Carl Edwards	3	13.34
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Carl Edwards	3	13.45
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Carl Edwards	3	13.10
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	25	13.41
Eric McClung	KFFL	Matt Kenseth	19	13.72
Eric McGuire	free agent	Matt Kenseth	19	15.24
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	2	11.86
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	19	15.79
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	27.66
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	11.52
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Carl Edwards	3	12.07
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	14.48
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.28
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brad Keselowski	20	11.48
James Jones	On Pit Row	Carl Edwards	3	11.97
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jimmie Johnson	2	12.28
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Carl Edwards	3	9.28
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Kyle Busch	6	12.07
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Matt Kenseth	5	14.17

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		David Ragan	21	11.59
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Greg Biffle	27	15.93
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Greg Biffle	27	17.93
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Juan Pablo Montoya	22	15.93
Eric McClung	KFFL	Martin Truex Jr	30	16.24
Eric McGuire	free agent	Greg Biffle	27	15.31
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Greg Biffle	27	16.00
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	8	14.03
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	28.07
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	David Ragan	21	20.83
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Greg Biffle	27	17.52
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	27	11.83
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	A J Allmendinger	7	14.83
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	19	15.24
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	4	13.45
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	27	13.31
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Greg Biffle	27	14.55
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Martin Truex Jr	30	16.83
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	7	14.62

Scouting Report: AAA 400

How to make an informed pick for the Dover AAA 400:

1) Look back at recent Dover races, it matters. Last year five drivers finished in the top ten in both Dover races. Also in recent Dover races you’ll find that some drivers know how to get around the 1.0 mile concrete track and some don’t.

2) Practice is extremely important at Dover. In recent weeks I’ve downplayed the importance of practice but not this week. Dover is a symmetrical track and average practice speeds will weed out the contenders from the pretenders.

3) Qualifying counts at Dover. Fifty of the eighty-three races run at the Monster Mile have been won from a top five starting position (60%). Thirteen of them have been won from the pole. Only eighteen races have been won from a starting position outside the top ten.

4) Don’t get to carried away studying similar tracks this week. Dover is twice as big as Bristol and I feel fantasy racers can’t really digest Darlington info the best because I feel only one set of turns is similar to Dover so why complicate things. In my AAA 400 Fantasy Preview I mention these tracks loosely but studying Dover exclusively is the best way to go.

Drivers to watch in the Dover AAA 400:

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has won three out of the last five races at Dover. Another amazing stat is that in these five races he’s led 1,192 laps and the least amount of laps he’s led in a race was 191 (nearly half the race). Johnson has six wins at Dover and a 10th place average finish. If Johnson doesn’t win or get a top five in the AAA 400 then his championship hopes are over.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth won at Dover in May and he’s finished in the top five in nearly half his starts at the Monster Mile. Since 2008 Kenseth has only finished lower than 4th once. Matt Kenseth is a great race manager who knows how to save his car for the end of races. In 1998 Kenseth made his Sprint Cup debut in Bill Elliotts car and finished 6th.

Carl Edwards – Edwards will be as good of a pick as they come Sunday in the AAA 400. Edwards only has one Dover win but since the 2006 Chase race he’s only finished outside the top ten once and it was an 11th place finish. His average finish in this ten race time span is 4.9.

Tony Stewart – Stewart once owned Dover but his success has been limited since 2005. Before 2005 he had a worst finish of 11th and all of his other finishes were better than 7th. Times have changed though and Stewart only has one top five, and four top tens in the last half decade. Momentum matters and going 3 for 3 could happen.

Kyle Busch – Busch is a two time Monster Mile winner who won the spring 2010 race. Last year in the Dover Chase race he finished sixth and led 46 laps. One area of concern is that in three out of the last five Dover Chase races he’s finished 31st or worse. His aggressive driving style has served him well at Dover.

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Dover Pre Race Loop Data Book
• Dover 5 Year Driver Averages
• Dover Drivers Average Running Positions
• Dover Driver Ratings
• Dover Entry List
• Dover Schedule Of Events

VegasInsider.com odds to win the AAA 400:

• Jimmie Johnson 4/1
• Kyle Busch 5/1
• Tony Stewart 6/1
• Jeff Gordon 7/1
• Carl Edwards 8/1
• Kevin Harvick 10/1
• Denny Hamlin 10/1
• Matt Kenseth 14/1
• Brad Keselowski 14/1
• Kurt Busch 15/1

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com driver momentum over the last five races:

1. Brad Keselowski
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Tony Stewart
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Kurt Busch
7. Jimmie Johnson
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Ryan Newman
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Tony Stewart	1	13.71
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Tony Stewart	1	13.82
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jimmie Johnson	18	13.46
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	18	13.00
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jimmie Johnson	18	13.54
Eric McGuire	free agent	Tony Stewart	1	15.11
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Tony Stewart	1	12.21
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Kurt Busch	22	15.68
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	27.07
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Tony Stewart	1	11.86
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jimmie Johnson	18	12.39
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	18	14.93
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	18	12.64
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Brad Keselowski	2	11.18
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	4	12.29
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jeff Gordon	4	12.64
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Tony Stewart	1	9.50
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	4	12.29
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jimmie Johnson	18	14.50

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: Sylvania 300 from New Hampshire

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Clint Bowyer	26	11.25
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Clint Bowyer	26	15.54
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	David Reutimann	28	17.61
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	15	15.71
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jeff Burton	13	15.75
Eric McGuire	free agent	Clint Bowyer	26	14.89
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	A J Allmendinger	21	15.61
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	David Ragan	7	14.25
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	27.50
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Paul Mennard	20	20.82
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	26	17.18
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	26	11.29
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Martin Truex Jr	16	15.11
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	24	15.11
James Jones	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	3	13.79
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Clint Bowyer	26	12.82
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Martin Truex Jr	16	14.11
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Joey Logano	14	16.36
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	A J Allmendinger	21	14.89

Fantasy NASCAR Preview: Loudon 2 – Sylvania 300

On Sunday afternoon–for the second and final time this season–the Sprint Cup Series will visit New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Sylvania 300, the second race in the 2011 Chase. After last week’s wild ending in Chicago, the points standings may get shaken up once again on Sunday at “The Magic Mile,” as you never know what’s going to happen on the small race tracks, where racing is tight all around. A fuel mileage race could happen once again as well, as we saw last fall when NASCAR’s most recent winner ran out of fuel on the last lap of this event in 2010.

During The Last Race At Loudon…Ryan Newman started on the pole, led 125 of the 301 laps, and went to victory lane with teammate Tony Stewart following him to the stripe. Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Jimmie Johnson rounded out the top 5. Newman is the only driver in the series to post top 10 finishes in both races at New Hampshire in 2009 as well as the first race here this season.

Top Fifteen Ranking Entering The Sylvania 300:
*Chase participants are marked in red*

1. Kurt Busch - The elder Busch brother had the best car last week but came home 6th, and this week the Cup series is visiting one of his better tracks, and the site of three of Kurt’s twenty-three career wins. Over the last five races at Loudon, no driver has a better average driver rating or a better average finish than Kurt Busch. Since his win here in June of 2008, Kurt hasn’t finished worse than 13th and hasn’t had a driver rating under 91.7. In the flat track races this season, Busch has started in the top 5 in all five of them and has just one finish outside of the top 10.

2. Jeff Gordon – No one has really been as dominant on the flat tracks this season as Jeff Gordon. He won at Phoenix in February, won at Pocono in June, and finished 2nd at Indianapolis in July. At the series’ first stop at Loudon this season, Gordon finished 11th after starting 7th, and at the last flat track race (Pocono in August), he finished 6th despite starting deep in the pack (31st). At “The Magic Mile,” Jeff owns an average finish of 11th and three victories. In thirty-three starts he has just six finishes outside of the top 20, and Gordon hasn’t finished worse than 15th here since 2005. Expect this #24 team to rebound after that weak showing in Chicago on Monday.

3. Jimmie Johnson – In the last 19 flat track races, “Five Time” owns fifteen top 10 finishes and three wins. Of those fifteen top 10s, twelve were also top 5s. At New Hampshire, Johnson has visited victory lane three times in nineteen career starts and owns an average finish of 9.6. Recently, Jimmie has posted three top 5s in the last four races at Loudon and has just one finish outside of the top 10 here since 2006. He has the third-best average driver rating of the past five races here and has finished in the top 5 in all but one of the flat track races during this 2011 season.

4. Ryan Newman – With The Rocketman’s 8th-place finish at Chicagoland, he now has five top 10 finishes in the last seven Sprint Cup races and a worst finish of 20th. I personally do not think that he has a chance of winning this year’s chase, but with a win at Loudon on Sunday, Newman could turn me–and probably some others–into a believer. He is the most recent winner at this race track and you have to consider Ryan one of the best flat track racers in the series: in the five events on them this season, he has a win, three top 5s, and a worst finish of 12th. At New Hampshire specifically, Newman owns three visits to victory lane and thirteen top 10s in nineteen starts. He hasn’t finished worse than 8th in the last four races here and I wouldn’t expect that to change on Sunday.

5. Tony Stewart – After last week’s surprising (to me anyway) victory in Chicago, look for “Smoke” to have another good result in New Hampshire this weekend. Stewart has made twenty-five career starts at “The Magic Mile” and has found himself in victory lane twice. His average finish here is 12th and Tony has the second-best average driver rating at this track over the last five races. He’s finished 2nd in two of the last three races at Loudon and in the other race–where he finished 24th–Stewart was leading on the last lap but ran out of fuel. He has started in the top 5 in four of the last five races at New Hampshire and “Smoke” has finished 11th or better in four of the five flat track races this season. If he wants to make a serious run at the championship this season, Tony Stewart will need a good run this weekend, and I think it will happen.

6. Kyle Busch – “Rowdy” had engine woes here in July, but before that Kyle Busch ran off four consecutive top 11 finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. This is nowhere near his best track on the circuit (his average finish is 16.3 at Loudon) but Busch won here in 2006 and has been great on the flat tracks this season–excluding the first visit to this track–with top 3 finishes at Pocono twice as well as Phoenix in February. This team has stumbled recently (one top 10 in the last four Sprint Cup races) so make sure the #18 Toyota looks good in practice before committing to Kyle Busch on Sunday.

7. Kevin Harvick – “Happy” has had his fair share of struggles at New Hampshire but his average finish of 14.2 here isn’t too shabby (and actually ranks him 9th of all active drivers). He won from the pole here in 2006 and before his stumble here in July, Harvick had back-to-back top 5 finishes at this race track. As usual, don’t expect a good qualifying effort from the 29 team (just one start better than 18th in the last five races here) but a good finish should be expected. This year at the flat tracks, Harvick has recorded top 5s at Phoenix and Pocono and an 11th at Indianapolis.

8. Carl Edwards – He has just two top 10s in fourteen career starts at Loudon, but if Cousin Carl is going to make a legitimate run at the championship–which I think he will do–he will have to turn his luck around at this race track. He’s not terrible here, as shown with his 14.4 average finish, but he will need a run on Sunday similar to his efforts here in 2008 and 2006, where Carl finished in the top 5. In his career here, Edwards has just one finish outside of the top 20, so he’s very consistent, but he just needs to run a little better to get a third top 10 at “The Magic Mile.” I think that will happen on Sunday, as the #99 Ford has been pretty fast at the flat tracks this season.

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Junior is a very consistent driver (just one finish worse than 16th since early mid-July) but he hasn’t really put up top 10s–instead, Earnhardt usually finishes in the mid-teens. He lucked into a top 5 at Chicago on Monday, but I think the fan favorite will legitimately have a top 10 run this weekend. In the last six Loudon races, Junior has three top 10 finishes and just one finish outside of the top 15. What’s better yet is how good this team has been on the flat tracks in 2011: two top 10s at Pocono, a 10th at Phoenix, and a 16th-place finish at Indianapolis. The last time the series visited Loudon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. came home in 15th after starting 27th.

10. Denny Hamlin – I know Denny’s history at this track is very impressive–which I will get to in a little bit–but let’s be honest: this team isn’t hitting on all cylinders and despite having solid top 10 runs before last week’s disaster in Chicago, they probably should have finished better in those races. Now to Hamlin’s record at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In eleven career starts at this track, Denny has a series-best average finish of 7.2 and one win. He has never finished worse than 15th here and Hamlin has completed every single lap ran in the events he has participated at “The Magic Mile.” If he looks great in practice, I’ll rank him a little higher, but as of now Hamlin is just a top 10 driver in my mind. He has just one top 10 finish in the five flat track races this season.

11. Brad Keselowski – He got another top 5 finish at Chicagoland on Monday, but let’s face it: BK was a top 15 car at best and the fuel mileage factor played right into his hand. Going into the race this weekend, I’m ranking Keselowski conservatively at 11th, but I think he has the potential to score a top 10 when it’s all said and done on Sunday. Brad’s first ever start here in 2009 left him with a 6th-place showing, and in the last two races here–despite ending in disappointing finishes (18th and 35th)–he has started in the top 5 both times. He’s not great at the flat tracks by any means but Keselowski won at Pocono in August and finished 9th at Indianapolis after starting 5th. If he looks good in practice, expect a solid showing from Brad on Sunday.

12. Clint Bowyer – Bowyer was another beneficiary of the fuel situation in Chicago, as he got a top 10 finish out of it. Clint’s record at New Hampshire isn’t stellar (16.2 average finish in eleven starts) but he does have two victories here and is the defending winner of this race, although that was due to his Tony Stewart’s fuel woes on the last lap. Bowyer hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since 2008 and owns three top 10s in that span of five races. If he gets a little luck on Sunday, Clint could get a top 10 finish, but I think he will end up right where he has at the flat tracks all season long: in the teens.

13. Mark Martin – Look what we have here: for the first time in the 2011 season, Mark Martin has back-to-back top 10 finishes and the series is coming into one of his best tracks on the circuit. In twenty-nine career starts at Loudon, Mark owns fourteen top 10s and he visited victory lane here in 2009. Of all those starts, Martin only has five finishes outside of the top 20. However, three of those five have came in the last three events here. I don’t think he’ll be that bad this weekend, though. In the five flat track races this season, Martin has three finishes of 13th or better and a worst finish of 22nd. With a little luck, Martin could record his third top 10 in a row on Sunday,

14. Martin Truex, Jr. – It’s a pretty risky pick but if nothing goes wrong for this #56 team, a top 15 should be a lock for Martin Truex, Jr. on Sunday. He finished 8th here in July and in the four races in 2007 and 2008, Martin finished in the top 10 in all of them. This team struggled at Indianapolis with their 24th-place finish, but in the other flat track races in 2011, Truex has been a top 15 car every time. I expect that to happen once again in New Hampshire on Sunday,

15. Greg Biffle – Another risky pick this weekend will be The Biff. It’s almost getting ridiculous how much bad luck this team has run into this season despite having very good race cars. At New Hampshire, Biffle has finished 18th or better in seven of the last eight races and he won here in 2008. The last three events at Loudon have ended with Greg in 16th, 17th, and 18th, and in the flat track races in 2011, this team has come away with four top 20s in five races. I expect the #16 Ford to end up in the mid-teens when it’s all said and done on Sunday.

Those To Avoid Entering The Sylvania 300:

Matt Kenseth – The last-lap penalty in Chicago on Monday is really the last thing that Matt Kenseth needed because after the race in New Hampshire this weekend, his championship chances may be all but dead. In fact, Ryan Rantz has already stuck a fork in him (click here to read). Kenseth hasn’t posted a top 10 finish at Loudon since 2007, and hasn’t even really been close since then either–his best driver rating in the last seven races here has been 82.4. Matt finished 20th here in July.

Kasey Kahne – I’ve completely written off both Red Bull Racing drivers for the remainder of the season. Talk to me about Kahne next season when he’s driving for Hendrick. Kasey finished 6th here in July but his overall record at Loudon isn’t very stellar: only one top 5 in fifteen career starts and an average finish of 18th.

Brian Vickers – See what I said above about the Red Bull drivers. The last four races at New Hampshire have ended with Vickers finishing 34th, 11th, 35th, and 35th. He has one top 10 in twelve career starts at “The Magic Mile” and an average finish of 23rd. I’ll pass.

Bobby Labonte – He finished 7th here in July but don’t expect anything close to that this weekend out of Bobby Labonte. His driver rating during that race was just 24th-best, and that’s the finish, and that’s also his average finish at “The Magic Mile” over the last five races here. Expect a mid-20s finish out of Labonte this weekend–as usual.

Scouting Report: New Hampshire

How to make an informed pick for the New Hampshire Sylvania 300

1) The most important thing I would really focus on this week in the process of making an informed fantasy pick is to really study New Hampshire track history. New Hampshire is a “skill track”. The driver is the most important variable this week, not a teams aero department. Since this is a skill track drivers average finishes are extremely valuable fantasy information.

2) For New Hampshire I would strongly suggest you study recent results/ performances at similar tracks. The two similar tracks I would study are Phoenix and Richmond. Both of these tracks have data that can cross over for this weekends race at the Magic Mile.

3) Practice is important every week. In practice you really want a driver who says their car drives good. A good driving car at New Hampshire is a fast car.

4) Qualifying is important but it’s not the most important variable this week. During pit stops at New Hampshire lots of pit strategy will be taking place as drivers seek to get precious track position. Look for gas and goes and two tire pit stops to be frequent. The bottom line at New Hampshire is that the strong always get to the front.

Drivers to watch in the New Hampshire Sylvania 300:

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson is a three time winner who last won at New Hampshire in 2010. Earlier this year Johnson finished 5th and led 19 laps. Johnson started 28th and passed more cars then anyone (93). Jimmie has an average finish of 10th and a average start of 11th. This is Chase time and that means it’s “Jimmie time”.

Tony Stewart – Tony Stewart is a two time winner at New Hampshire. In July he finished second in what was Stewart- Haas Racing’s first one-two finish. Stewart has been extremely competitive here recently. In two out of the last three New Hampshire races he’s finished second. In the one race he didn’t finish second he was in the lead until he ran out of gas in the closing laps relegating him to a 24th place finish (led 100 laps). Stewart has led laps in the last eight consecutive races at New Hampshire (414 laps over last eight races).

Jeff Gordon – Now’s not the time to hop off the Jeff Gordon momentum bandwagon. He’s a three time New Hampshire winner (last in 1998) who’s only finished outside the top fifteen once since 2004. He should’ve won the 2009 race but Logano was aided by rain. Richmond (best car) and Phoenix (won) are similar tracks so there’s no question he’ll be one of the drivers to beat in the Sylvania 300.

Kevin Harvick – All RCR cars missed the setup at New Hampshire earlier this year. That really concerns me. His Richmond win was huge though in terms of inspiring fantasy NASCAR confidence for me. He also performed admirably at Phoenix in February and finished 4th with a damaged car. Before his 21st place finish in July Harvick had two consecutive 5th place finishes. Harvick won the New Hampshire Chase opening race in 2006.

Kurt Busch – Earlier this year Kurt Busch led 66 laps and finished 10th. On the last lap of the regular season race he was running in fifth before he ran out of gas. Since 2008 Kurt Busch has an average finish of 6th, a mid race average running position of 6th, and an average running position of 7th. The bottom line about Kurt Busch is that he’s always near the front of the pack.

VegasInsider.com odds to win at Loudon:

Jimmie Johnson 4/1, Denny Hamlin 5/1, Kyle Busch 6/1, Kevin Harvick 7/1, Tony Stewart 7/1, Jeff Gordon 7/1, Brad Keselowski 8/1, Carl Edwards 10/1, Ryan Newman 14/1, Kurt Busch 16/1

FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com momentum over the last five races:

1)Brad Keselowski 2)Jeff Gordon 3)Tony Stewart 4)Jimmie Johnson 5)Ryan Newman 6)Kevin Harvick 7)Carl Edwards 8)Kyle Busch 9)Kurt Busch 10)Matt Kenseth

Racing4Glory.com Stat Center:

• Sylvania 300 Pre Race Loop Data Book
• 5 Year New Hampshire Averages
• Similar Track Averages
• Entry List
• Schedule of events

NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: GEICO 400 from Chicagoland Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell		Jeff Gordon	24	14.19
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Jeff Gordon	24	14.30
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Jeff Gordon	24	13.30
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Jeff Gordon	24	12.81
Eric McClung	KFFL	Jeff Gordon	24	13.37
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kyle Busch	22	15.63
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	Jimmie Johnson	10	12.63
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	21	15.44
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	26.44
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Brad Keselowski	5	12.26
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Jeff Gordon	24	12.19
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	10	14.81
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Matt Kenseth	21	12.44
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Kyle Busch	22	11.52
James Jones	On Pit Row	Jimmie Johnson	10	12.59
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Jeff Gordon	24	12.96
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Matt Kenseth	21	9.81
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	Jeff Gordon	24	12.59
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Jeff Gordon	24	14.37

Fantasy Racing Darkhorse Picks: GEICO 400 from Chicagoland Speedway

Expert	Website	Pick to Win	Finish	Experts Avg
Josh Lobdel		Kasey Kahne	12	10.70
Jerry Lagger	One and Done Game Winner	Kasey Kahne	12	15.15
Dennis Michelsen	RaceTalkRadio.com	Brian Vickers	13	17.22
Steve Wronkowicz	On Pit Row	Greg Biffle	26	15.74
Eric McClung	KFFL	A J Allmendinger	27	15.85
Eric McGuire	free agent	Kasey Kahne	12	14.48
Dan Beaver	Fantasy Racing Games	A J Allmendinger	27	15.41
Matt Mercer	On Pit Row	Jamie McMurray	38	14.52
Adam Ansell	Roto Experts	no pick	44	26.89
Chris Leone	On Pit Row	Paul Menard	20	20.85
Bob Ellis	NASCAR Ranting and Raving	Clint Bowyer	7	16.85
CharlieTurner	On Pit Row	Clint Bowyer	7	10.74
Jordan McAbee	On Pit Row	Marcos Ambrose	19	15.07
Jon Rodgers	Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner	Mark Martin	9	14.78
James Jones	On Pit Row	Kasey Kahne	12	14.19
Mike Wells	Racing4Glory.com	Greg Biffle	26	12.33
Darren Fauth	FantasyRacingCheatSheet	Clint Bowyer	7	14.04
P J Walsh	FantasyNASCARPreview.com	A J Allmendinger	27	16.44
Charles Rantz	ifantasyrace.com	Greg Biffle	26	14.67

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