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Home / Archive: November 2009
Who's Up
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Who's Down
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Biggest Gain This Week:
No moves up this week.
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Biggest Drop This Week:
No moves down this week.
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No new drivers this week.
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No drivers dropped out this week.
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Rank: 1st
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Jimmie Johnson- 7 Wins, 24 Top TensThe seasons over, the right man won, and all is right with the world again. If your not a fan of Jimmie Johnson then by about 2015 his dynasty will probably be in decline. Chad Knaus plans on being the 48 crew chief for at least 5 more years. |
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Rank: 2nd
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Mark Martin- 5 Wins, 21 Top TensMark Martin isn't done yet and the never ending "Salute to you tour" will be going strong through 2011. He had a great season that far exceeded probably anyone's expectations. |
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Rank: 3rd
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Kurt Busch- 2 Win, 21 Top TensKurt Busch almost stopped the Hendrick 1,2,3 standing domination but the 2 team fumbled in the decision making department late at Homestead. Kurt was definitely the the rebound driver of the year. |
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Rank: 4th
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Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 25 Top TensBy finishing 6th at Homestead Jeff Gordon wrapped up the top 3 spots for Hendrick Motors Sports. Gordon finished the season with the most top tens (25), but at this point that was last season. |
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Rank: 5th
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Denny Hamlin- 4 Wins, 20 Top TensI've seriously heard people speculate that Denny Hamlin would be the person who would stop Jimmie Johnson's dominance. Hamlin even said it himself. I know it sounds humorous considering he thinks he paid Keselowski back. |
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Rank: 6th
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Tony Stewart- 4 Wins, 23 Top TensI told people all season long that the 14 team wasn't a real championship threat. They were just the most consistent team in the series. After Watkins Glen this team's performances plummeted. |
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Rank: 7th
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Juan Pablo Montoya- 7 Top Fives, 18 Top TensI have no clue how NASCAR fans can't like Montoya. He sticks up for himself on the track and is passionate about what he does. What NASCAR needs is 1) be more consistent (2 lap penalty?) and 2) 42 more Montoya's on the track. |
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Rank: 8th
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Greg Biffle- 10 Top Fives, 16 Top TensIt was a down year for Roush and Biffle completed the first full season of his career that he was win less. NASCAR is a cyclical sport so I wouldn't be surprised if he bounces back to multiple victories next year. |
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Rank: 9th
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Kasey Kahne- 2 Wins, 14 Top TensKahne had a nice season that never materialized in the Chase. The problem here is that no team is entering the off season with more question marks then Kahne. 2010 will be a contract year for Kahne so things will either go really good or really bad. |
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Rank: 10th
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Ryan Newman- 5 Top Fives, 15 Top TensRyan Newman returned to the Chase in 2009 but he didn't return to victory lane. If Ryan Newman could just improve on the intermediate tracks then he would have potential to challenge for the championship. |
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Rank: 11th
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Carl Edwards- 7 Top Fives, 14 Top TensAfter California in the Chase this team just fell apart. In the off season when people talk about the disappointment of the year Carl Edwards should certainly be talked about in that debate. |
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Rank: 12th
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Brian Vickers- 1 Win, 13 Top TensBrian Vickers should be a NASCAR spokesman for why the Chase only needs 10 drivers. Brian Vickers didn't have a single top ten, never led a lap, and had a 59.7 driver rating over the course of the Chase. |
Totally reconfigured in 2003, Homestead-Miami Speedway is the only place on the Sprint Cup circuit with variable banking, gradually increasing from 18 degrees on the bottom to 20 at the top. Because the track only hosts the season finale of the NASCAR season it is more important to consider a driver’s momentum heading into this race than historical stats. With that in mind, strongly consider three drivers from the Richard Childress Racing stable. Over the last six races, RCR has had two top-10 cars on four occasions.
- Clint Bowyer finished a career-best fifth last year at Homestead and has an average finish of 10.0 over the last six races this season.
- Kevin Harvick holds an impressive 7.6 average finish since the track was reconfigured and only one finish outside the top-10. He was in runner-up last year’s Ford 400 and has registered the 11th-most points over the last six races.
- Jeff Burton is decent at Homestead with a 15.8 career average finish but more importantly has three straight top-10s this season.
Also noteworthy, David Ragan will be running the new Ford engine for the first time in a non-restrictor plate event.
Chasing the pole at Homestead-Miami
- Kasey Kahne… Winner of the pole in ’06 at Homestead, Kahne owns an average starting position of 5.8– best among active drivers.
- Ryan Newman… Starting second in ’05 and ’07, Newman would lead laps in both races and finished seventh and 18th. Starting Newman this week will be hinge greatly on his qualifying run, as he finished outside the top-20 in ’06 and ’08 when he started 16th and 29th.
- Jimmie Johnson… Johnson has only started inside the top-10 at Homestead only once, starting from the pole in ’07. But on the season, Johnson as has recorded the best average starting position (8.5) among all drivers. To avoid another disaster like Texas, Johnson would be wise to qualify up front in order to avoid the risk of running in the middle of the pack.
Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.
- Y! A/B/C – The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
- Value play – Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
- Jeff Gordon… Only one finish outside of the top-10 at Homestead since ’03– four top-fives. Y!-A1
- Jimmie Johnson… Five finishes of 15th or better at Homestead (four top-10s, one DNF) since ’03 (six races). Average finish of 10.0 since ’06, led at least one laps in all three. Y!-A2
- Mark Martin… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ’03, average finish of 10.0 in the four races since. Y!-A3
- Kurt Busch… Won in ’02 at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. DNFs (crash) in ’06 and ’08, runner-up in ’07. Y!-B1
- Denny Hamlin… Finished third at Homestead in ’06 and ’07, 13th in last year’s Ford 400. Y!-B2
- Tony Stewart… Two-time winner (’99, ’00) at Homestead prior to reconfiguration. Average finish of 13.3 since ’03; two top-10s, five top-15s. Y!-B3
- Juan Pablo Montoya… DNF (crash) at Homestead in ’06, average finish of 16.0 in the last two races. Y!-B4
- Clint Bowyer… Finished a career-best fifth at Homestead last year, one other top-10 in three career starts. Y!-A4
- Greg Biffle… Three-time winner (’04-’06) at Homestead, average finish of 15.5 in the last two races.
- Kasey Kahne… Two top-10 finishes at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B5
- Kyle Busch… Finished a career-best 19th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400.
- Matt Kenseth… Won at Homestead in ’07, led 214 laps. Started third, finished 25th last year- led 73 laps.
- Kevin Harvick… Average finish of 9.1 at Homestead in eight career starts, has never finished worse than 20th.
- Carl Edwards… Won last’s year Ford 400 at Homestead. Owns a streak of four top-10s, has never finished worse than 14th.
- Ryan Newman… Average finish of 20.6 at Homestead in the last three races. Y!-B6
- David Reutimann… Won the pole at Homestead last year but only led one laps, finished 20th. Finished 13th in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-B7
- Jeff Burton… Only one top-10 at Homestead since ’03- but has finished 14th or better three times in that span.
- Brian Vickers… Has never finished better than 18th at Homestead, only one lead-lap finish (two DNFs) in six career starts. Y!-B8
- Joey Logano… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Won the pole, finished 10th in last year’s Nationwide race.
- Marcos Ambrose… Started 41st, finished 42nd in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Finished 10th in ’07 Nationwide race, DNF last year. Y!-C1
- AJ Allmendinger… Strong value play. Started 43rd, finished 11th in last year’s Ford 400– first career start at Homestead. Y!-C2
- Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished a career-best third at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400, 15.4 average finish in six career starts.
- Casey Mears… Strong value play. Average finish of 15.3 at Homestead in the last four races.
- Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead in nine career starts, has not finished better than 19th since ’03.
- David Ragan… Weak value play. Average start of 6.5 at Homestead in two career starts– finished 10th and 24th.
- Martin Truex Jr…. Weak value play. Average finish of 12.5 at Homestead in four career starts.
- Brad Keselowski… Weak value play. Started 31st, finished 23rd in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Finished third in last year’s Nationwide race. Y!-C3
- Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Won from the pole at Homestead in ’01 prior to reconfiguration. Started 15th, finished 12th last year. Y!-C4
- Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 29th, finished 37th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead. Average finish of 3.0 (three wins) in seven IndyCar starts (’01-’07)
- Bobby Labonte… Won in ’03 at Homestead, average finish of 28.6 in the five races since.
- Scott Speed… Started second, finished 16th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
- Travis Kvapil… Started 19th, finished seventh at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– both career bests.
- David Stremme… Finished 11th at Homestead in ’06 and ’07, did not start last year.
- Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 24.2 at Homestead in four career starts.
- Paul Menard… Average finish of 27.3 at Homestead in four career starts.
- Robby Gordon… Average finish of 27.4 at Homestead in seven career starts.
- Elliott Sadler… Average finish of 30.0 at Homestead since ’03.
- David Gilliland… Average finish of 30.7 at Homestead in three career starts.
- Regan Smith… Started 26th, finished 34th in last year’s Ford 400– first career Cup start at Homestead.
- Michael Waltrip… Started 42nd, finished 38th at Homestead in last year’s Ford 400– no starts in ’06 and ’07.
- Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Homestead. Finished 27th in last year’s Truck race.
- Erik Darnell… No career starts at Homestead.
- John Andretti… No Cup starts at Homestead since ’04.
- Terry Labonte… No Cup starts at Homestead since ’04.
- Sterling Marlin…? Possible start and park. Rumored to the TBD driver. Started 21st, finished 29th last year at Homestead.
- Dave Blaney… Possible start and park. Average finish of 18.8 at Homestead since ’03.
- Joe Nemechek… Possible start and park. Average finish of 23.4 at Homestead since ’03.
- Michael McDowell… Possible start and park. No career Cup starts at Homestead. DNF (transmission) in ’07 Nationwide race.
Who's Up
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Who's Down
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Biggest Gain This Week:
Denny Hamlin: 7th to 5th
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Biggest Drop This Week:
Jeff Gordon: 3rd to 4th
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No new drivers this week.
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No drivers dropped out this week.
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Rank: 1st
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Jimmie Johnson- 7 Wins, 23 Top TensJimmie Johnson had a statement victory at Phoenix but don't think he's immune to problems at Homestead. The last time Jimmie Johnson didn't win the championship he had a blown tire at Homestead that ruined his day and his championship hopes (2005). |
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Rank: 2nd
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Mark Martin - 5 Wins, 21 Top TensFinishing second must almost be like a tradition for Mark Martin fans. Michael Jordon stopped many of his competitors from winning championships and Jimmie Johnson is doing the exact same thing. MJ took his sport to the next level and so will JJ. |
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Rank: 3rd
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Kurt Busch - 2 Win, 20 Top TensKurt Busch was poised to be one of Jimmie Johnson's biggest competitors at Phoenix but the 2 team lost the handle of their car mid race. I'm sure Roger Penske wishes that he could have made Pat Tryson a counter offer to stay. |
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Rank: 4th
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Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 24 Top TensEarnhardt and Petty have their 7 by 7 club and soon Jeff Gordon will be able to start his own 4 by 4 club with Jimmie Johnson. Or even better yet he could do it by himself with his 4 driver championships and 4 owner championships. |
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Rank: 5th
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Denny Hamlin - 3 Wins, 19 Top TensFor anyone who ever goes to my fantasy chats then you'll know that my default Denny Hamlin advice works. "If its flat or short pick Hamlin". If Hamlin ever wants to win the championship then he really needs to win at an intermediate track. |
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Rank: 6th
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Tony Stewart - 4 Wins, 23 Top TensUnder the old system Stewart would only be 8 points back. That systems dead so this shouldn't even be news. The real news that Stewart created for the week was over his radio. Stewart called Jr a "no driving talent sob". Yikes. |
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Rank: 7th
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Juan Pablo Montoya - 7 Top Fives, 18 Top TensJuan Pablo Montoya's rise is certainly one of the best stories of the season but no one possibly thought he might finish in the top 5 in points. Montoya's magic Homestead number is 5 points, that's how many points he needs to gain on Tony Stewart. |
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Rank: 8th
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Greg Biffle - 10 Top Fives, 16 Top TensHistorically Homestead is a very good place for Biffle with his 3 career wins at the track. Don't buy into that hype this weekend because those wins all were with the old car. The best he's finished with the COT is 13th. |
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Rank: 9th
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Kasey Kahne - 2 Wins, 14 Top TensKahne started his NASCAR driving career with Ford and after Homestead he'll once again be in a Ford. I don't know if I should be happy or sad for him. I guess we'll all find out next season. |
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Rank: 10th
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Ryan Newman - 5 Top Fives, 15 Top TensNewman returned to the Chase in 2009 but once he made it there really wasn't anything to brag about. He finished 7th twice but what's so great about that? |
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Rank: 11th
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Carl Edwards - 7 Top Fives, 13 Top TensEdwards was good in the spring but ever since then it's all been downhill. If I were Carl I wouldn't be expecting a very good seat at the Las Vegas awards banquet this year. |
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Rank: 12th
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Brian Vickers - 1 Win, 13 Top TensBelieve it or not Vickers is improving. His Chase average finish right now is 23. Last year over the same segment of races his average finish was 25.1. Next year he might be able to get it down to around 20. |
Over the last nine races this season, three have been on flat tracks. Thus far there has been a total of seven races on flat tracks. This gives fantasy owners a very clear idea on the top options for this weekend’s race at Phoenix International Raceway. I’ve created another NASCAR Fantasy Tool, 2009 Average Finish at Flat Tracks. Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway all vary in length but their banking in the corners is similar and are all, of course, flat.
Mark Martin and Denny Hamlin each have two wins on flat tracks. Kyle Busch owns a victory and has three straight top-fives on flat tracks. Tony Stewart began the season with four top-fives on flat tracks but an average finish on 13.3 on the last three. Ryan Newman has three straight top-10s; Brian Vickers has three straight of 11 or better. Sam Hornish Jr. put together a streak of four top-10s but was a disaster in the other three.
Chasing the pole at Phoenix
- Mark Martin… In April, Martin from the pole and has won a total of seven poles this season, one being Richmond. He started fourth just three weeks ago at Martinsville.
- Jimmie Johnson… Johnson won last year’s O’RAP 500 from the pole. The rest of Johnson’s starting numbers at Phoenix are decent: fifth and six in ’07, seventh in 4/08 and he started 10th back in April.
- Jeff Gordon… Gordon has started inside the top-10 for six of the seven flat track races this season. He has started inside the top-10 this season for 10 straight races.
- Kurt Busch… Started third in April and in last year’s O’RAP 500. He has started inside the top-10 at Phoenix in seven of his last eight attempts.
Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.
- Y! A/B/C – The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
- Value play – Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
- Mark Martin… Two-time winner at Phoenix (4/09, ’93). Average finish of 8.0 in four starts since ’07. Best average finish (5.7) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A1
- Jimmie Johnson… Three-time winner at Phoenix (’08 sweep, ’07). Has never finished worse than 15th in 12 career starts– fourth or better in six straight, seventh or better in eight straight. Finished fourth in April. Tenth-best average finish (9.6) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A2
- Denny Hamlin… Five finishes of six or better at Phoenix over the last six races, average finish of 6.0 in that span. Average finish of 4.0 last year. Finished sixth in April. Second-best average finish (5.9) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B1
- Tony Stewart… Won at Phoenix in ’99. Average finish of 18.0 last year, 3.0 in ’07. Runner-up in April. Third-best average finish (7.4) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B2
- Kurt Busch… Won at Phoenix in ’05, runner-up in last year’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500- led 60 laps. Finished third in April. Fourth-best average finish (8.7) at flat tracks this season. Y!-B3
- Jeff Gordon… Won at Phoenix in 4/07, finished 10th in 11/07 race. Finished 13th in last year’s April race, DNF (engine) in November. Fifth-best average finish (8.9) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A3
- Juan Pablo Montoya… Average finish of 16.5 at Phoenix last year. Average finish of 11.9 at flat tracks this season, 3.0 in the last two. Y!-B4
- Kyle Busch… Won at Phoenix in ’05. Average finish of 10.0 since ’07 (five races). Sixth-best average finish (9.0) at flat tracks this season. Y!-A4
- Ryan Newman… DNF (engine), 34th-place finish last year. Finished 38th and fifth in ’07. Finished 16th in April. Average finish of 11.3 at flat tracks this season. Y!-B5
- Carl Edwards… Finished fourth at Phoenix in both races last year, ninth in April. Seven top-10s in 10 career starts.
- Greg Biffle… Average finish of 16.5 at Phoenix last year. Finished fifth in April.
- Brian Vickers… Only one top-10 (’05) at Phoenix in 10 career starts. Average finish of 12.0 in ’06, 21.6 since (not counting crash last year). Y!-B7
- Kasey Kahne… Has finished 13th at Phoenix in consecutive races, no top-10s since ’06. Y!-B8
- Clint Bowyer… Runner-up in last year’s April race, 12th in November. Average finish of 14.9 at flat tracks this season.
- Jeff Burton… Two-time winner at Phoenix (’01, ’00). Has not finished worse than 15th since ’97 (17 races). Average finish of 7.5 last year, 11.0 in ’07. 9.5 in ’06.
- Kevin Harvick… Two-time winner at Phoenix (’06 sweep). Average finish of 10.5 in ’07-’08.
- Matt Kenseth… Won at Phoenix in ’02. Average finish of 4.0 in ’07, 26.6 in the three races since.
- Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Two-time winner at Phoenix (’04, ’03). Average finish of 6.5 last year. Finished 31st, ran 18th in April.
- Marcos Ambrose… Average finish of 16.0 at Phoenix in two career starts. Y!-C1
- David Reutimann… Average finish of 21.5 at Phoenix last year. Started and finished a career-best eighth in April.
- Joey Logano… Started 31st, finished 21st in April– first career start at Phoenix.
- Brad Keselowski… Strong value play. No career Cup starts at Phoenix. Third in the April Nationwide race. Y!-C2
- Jamie McMurray… Strong value play. Finished 23rd at Phoenix in both ’07 races, 10.3 in the three races since. Finished third in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, 11th in April.
- Martin Truex Jr…. Strong value play. Average finish of 7.3 at Phoenix in three of the last four races, not counting a DNF (overheating) in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Average finish of 17.0 in seven career starts. Finished seventh in April.
- Casey Mears… Zero top-10s at Phoenix in 11 career starts, 27.3 average finish.
- Sam Hornish Jr…. Weak value play. Finished a career-best ninth at Phoenix in April, but had an average running position of 23rd. Average finish of 27.6 in three previous career starts. Y!-C3
- Bobby Labonte… Weak value play. Average finish of 14.3 at Phoenix from ’07-’08. Y!-C4
- AJ Allmendinger… Average finish of 25.5 at Phoenix in two career starts.
- David Ragan… Finished a career-best 10th at Phoenix in last year’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500, 27th in the April race.
- Reed Sorenson… Finished a career-best 12th at Phoenix in April. DNF (crash) and 31st-place finish last year. Average finish of 17.0 in ’07.
- Regan Smith… Long shot value play. Average finish of 28.7 at Phoenix in three career starts.
- Paul Menard… Zero top-20 finishes at Phoenix in five career starts, 23.4 average finish.
- Michael Waltrip… Finished 24th at Phoenix in both races last year.
- Robby Gordon… Average finish of 28.8 at Phoenix since ’07 (five races).
- Elliott Sadler… Only one top-10 (’02) at Phoenix in 15 career starts. Finished 11th in both ’05 races, average finish of 31.1 in the seven races since.
- Scott Speed… Average finish of 37.0 at Phoenix in two career starts.
- John Andretti… Started 41st, finished 38th at Phoenix in April, first start since ’04. Average finish of 12.0 in four CART Series races (’88-’92).
- Brandon Ash… No career Cup starts at Phoenix. Average finish of 10.9 in seven career Truck Series West races (’98-’05).
- Max Papis… No career Cup starts at Phoenix.
- Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Phoenix.
- Kevin Conway… No career Cup starts.
- David Gilliland… Possible start and park. Started 27th, finished 33rd at Phoenix in April.
- Michael McDowell… Likely start and park. Started 29th, finished 34rd in April of last year– first career start at Phoenix.
- Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Finished 41st at Phoenix in April.
- Dave Blaney… Likely start and park. Finished 42nd at Phoenix in April.
- Tony Raines… Likely start and park. Finished 43rd at Phoenix in April.
This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Below are 24 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish this season at four flat tracks: Martinsville Speedway, Phoenix, Richmond International Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
The four flat tracks vary in length but do feature similar banking. Over the last nine races this season, three have been on flat tracks: Richmond is a little shorter (0.75 miles) and banked 14 degrees; New Hampshire is a little longer (1.06 miles) and most recently, Martinsville which is much shorter (0.53 miles) both are banked 12 degrees. Phoenix is 1.00 miles and banked 11 degrees and held its first race in April, the eighth race of the season.
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MVILLE 1 |
PHX |
Rich 1 |
NH 1 |
RICH 2 |
NH 2 |
MVILLE2 |
AVG |
| Mark Martin |
7 |
1 |
5 |
14 |
4 |
1 |
8 |
5.7 |
| Denny Hamlin |
2 |
6 |
14 |
15 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5.9 |
| Tony Stewart |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
17 |
14 |
9 |
7.4 |
| Kurt Busch |
18 |
3 |
12 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
17 |
8.7 |
| Jeff Gordon |
4 |
25 |
8 |
2 |
3 |
15 |
5 |
8.9 |
| Kyle Busch |
24 |
17 |
1 |
7 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
9 |
| Jimmie Johnson |
1 |
4 |
36 |
9 |
11 |
4 |
2 |
9.6 |
| Ryan Newman |
6 |
16 |
4 |
29 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
11.3 |
| Juan Pablo Montoya |
12 |
24 |
10 |
12 |
19 |
3 |
3 |
11.9 |
| Clint Bowyer |
5 |
26 |
18 |
20 |
6 |
10 |
19 |
14.9 |
| David Reutimann |
20 |
8 |
28 |
4 |
20 |
12 |
16 |
15.4 |
| Jamie McMurray |
10 |
11 |
7 |
33 |
27 |
18 |
6 |
16.0 |
| Jeff Burton |
15 |
15 |
3 |
31 |
18 |
16 |
15 |
16.1 |
| Greg Biffle |
28 |
5 |
17 |
18 |
13 |
9 |
25 |
16.4 |
| Joey Lagano |
32 |
21 |
19 |
1 |
14 |
21 |
12 |
17.1 |
| Casey Mears |
21 |
20 |
9 |
11 |
30 |
13 |
18 |
17.4 |
| Brian Vickers |
33 |
19 |
15 |
35 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
18.7 |
| Marcos Ambrose |
14 |
14 |
11 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
27 |
18.7 |
| Carl Edwards |
26 |
10 |
26 |
19 |
15 |
17 |
20 |
19.0 |
| Sam Hornish, Jr. |
34 |
9 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
37 |
36 |
19.7 |
| Matt Kenseth |
23 |
27 |
13 |
22 |
25 |
23 |
14 |
21.0 |
| Kasey Kahne |
19 |
13 |
29 |
10 |
12 |
38 |
32 |
21.9 |
| Kevin Harvick |
11 |
30 |
34 |
34 |
9 |
32 |
10 |
22.9 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
8 |
31 |
27 |
13 |
21 |
35 |
29 |
23.4 |
Who's Up
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Who's Down
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Biggest Gain This Week:
Mark Martin: 3rd to 2nd
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Biggest Drop This Week:
Juan Pablo Montoya: 4th to 6th
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No new drivers this week.
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No drivers dropped out this week.
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Rank: 1st
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Jimmie Johnson- 6 Wins, 22 Top TensJimmie Johnson has been Superman in the Chase this year but Sam "Kryptonite" Hornish Jr proved to us that Johnson isn't invincible. The only effect of the Johnson crash will be seen at Homestead when he's points racing for the fourth year in a row. |
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Rank: 2nd
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Mark Martin - 5 Wins, 20 Top TensMark Martin got the job done at Texas. Martin didn't win or even lead a lap but he renewed his championships chances by finishing 4th. At Phoenix where Martin won earlier this year he needs to further reduce his points deficit to Johnson. |
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Rank: 3rd
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Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 23 Top TensJeff Gordon started on the pole at Texas but if I were to grade his race I would give him a D. Gordon needed a top five day at worst, and the 24 team had perhaps their worst intermediate track performance of the year. |
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Rank: 4th
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Kurt Busch - 2 Win, 19 Top TensAfter the way the 2 car performed at Texas it's to bad Pat Tryson will be leaving this team soon. I know if I were a crew chief I wouldn't want to leave Kurt Busch for Martin Treux Jr. |
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Rank: 5th
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Tony Stewart - 4 Wins, 23 Top TensTony Stewart is a still a full race behind Johnson in the point standings. Their main goal this season was to make the Chase, but Talladega is what officially killed this teams chances. |
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Rank: 6th
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Juan Pablo Montoya - 7 Top Fives, 17 Top TensMontoya spent much of the Chase racing inside the top 5 but unfortunately it's starting to look inevitable that he won't finish there. I can't find any fault for a team that came virtually out of nowhere and was a legitimate threat. |
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Rank: 7th
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Denny Hamlin - 3 Wins, 18 Top TensHamlin had a big day at Texas and moved up three positions up to 8th in the points. At Phoenix Hamlin should be able to lock himself inside the top 10 in points. |
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Rank: 8th
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Greg Biffle - 10 Top Fives, 16 Top TensOther then Kansas and Talladega I don't remember seeing Biffle at all in the Chase. Their performances haven't really been that great, but they have managed to avoid DNF's which is a key aspect of the Chase. |
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Rank: 9th
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Kasey Kahne - 2 Wins, 14 Top TensAfter a failing motor at Texas Kahne now is sitting tenth in the points only 41 points ahead of Carl Edwards. I don't expect much out of either of these drivers at Phoenix so Homestead will be the key as to who goes to Las Vegas. |
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Rank: 10th
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Ryan Newman - 5 Top Fives, 15 Top TensIf Ryan Newman is going to finish inside the top ten this season then he must avoid his 22.9 average finish at Phoenix. Newman's only had 1 top ten at Phoenix since 2005. |
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Rank: 11th
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Carl Edwards - 7 Top Fives, 13 Top TensCarl Edwards may have been the biggest loser at Texas. Now Carl sits 11th in the points after his Texas wreck. If Carl doesn't finish in the top ten then he can forget about recognition at the 2009 awards banquet in Las Vegas. |
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Rank: 12th
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Brian Vickers - 1 Win, 13 Top TensI think this team will be impacted tremendously in 2010 by their Chase disaster. Even at their very best they barely made the Chase. With Kenseth, Earnhardt Jr (yes him), and RCR teams improving forget Vickers chances of making the Chase next year. |
Because the 1.5-mile, 24-degree banked track configuration at Texas Motor Speedway is similar to that of Atlanta Motor Speedway and Lowe’s Motor Speedway picking drivers for a fantasy lineup can be made much easier. The first Texas race, won by Jeff Gordon, was held in April. Atlanta and Lowe’s have already held two races a piece this season, so there a combined five races in which to analyze.
Three drivers have compiled an average finish better than 10th at the five 1.5M / 24° races: Jeff Gordon (5.8), Kasey Kahne (7.4) and Matt Kenseth (8.2). Six drivers averaged better than 16th: Tony Stewart (11.0), Ryan Newman (11.8), Jimmie Johnson (12.2), David Reutimann (12.6), Kyle Busch (12.6), Brian Vickers (13.4) and Mark Martin (15.2).
View my updated NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Atlanta, Texas and Lowe’s table to see the results at all five races, plus the average finish of 32 drivers.
Chasing the pole at Texas Motor Speedway
- Jeff Gordon… In his last five qualifying attempts at Texas, Gordon has won two poles and started in the second position twice. At the five 1.5M / 24° races this season, Gordon has an average starting position of 6.8.
- Jimmie Johnson… Although he was never won a pole at Texas, Johnson owns the best average starting position among all drivers (8.9) there. This season Johnson has an average starting position of 5.0 at the five 1.5M / 24° races, including the pole at the second Lowe’s race three weeks ago.
- Matt Kenseth… He has also never captured a pole at Texas but Kenseth has started eighth or better in six of his last eight attempts there. Kenseth did not have great runs at some of the 1.5M / 24° tracks but did start third at Texas in April and fourth at Lowe’s three weeks ago.
- Martin Truex Jr…. In his last three April runs at Texas, Truex’s average starting position is only 22.3. November has been much better, winning the pole in the ‘07 Dickies 500 and starting second the next year. In September, Truex won the pole at the second Atlanta race.
Here’s an explanation of the highlighted text in the rankings. Download a printer-friendly version here.
- Y! A/B/C – The top options in the Yahoo! Fantasy Auto Racing game by driver list.
- Value play – Good recent history at this week’s track. Drivers to consider as low-rent salary cap options or alternative options in allocation formats.
- Jeff Gordon… Won at Texas in April. Runner-up in last year’s Dickies 500. Average finish of 5.5 in ’07. Has led at least 15 laps in four of the last five races. Y!-A1
- Jimmie Johnson… Won at Texas in ’07. Runner-up in the last two April races, 15th in last year’s Dickies 500. Y!-A2
- Tony Stewart… Won at Texas in ’06. Finished fourth at Texas in April. Average finish of 11.5 in ’08. Y!-B1
- Mark Martin… Won at Texas in ’98. Since ’06: 6.5 average finish in April, 22.6 in November. Y!-A3
- Matt Kenseth… Won at Texas in ’02. Has a streak of five top-10 finishes at Texas– average finish of 5.4 in that span. Eight straight finishes inside the top-12. Had led at least one lap in 10 of 14 career starts. Y!-A4
- Juan Pablo Montoya… Finished seventh at Texas in April, best career finish. Y!-B2
- Kasey Kahne… Won from the pole at Texas in ’06 but no top-10s since. Finished 19th at Texas in April, average finish of 24.5 last year. Y!-B3
- Kurt Busch… Finished eighth at Texas in April. Average finish of 32.0 in ’08, 9.5 in ’07. Y!-B4
- Ryan Newman… Won at Texas in ’03. Average finish of 21.5 at Texas in the last two races, 4.5 in the prior two. Y!-B5
- Kyle Busch… Average finish of 7.8 at Texas over the last four races, led laps in all four.
- Denny Hamlin… Finished 12th at Texas in April, average finish of 11.0 last year. Y!-B6
- Carl Edwards… Three-time winner at Texas (swept last year, ’05). Finished eighth at Texas in April.
- Greg Biffle… Won at Texas in ’05. Average finish of 4.0 at Texas in the last two races, led laps in both.
- Clint Bowyer… Finished 22nd at Texas in April, average finish of 7.0 last year. Owns a career average finish of 13.6 in seven career starts.
- David Reutimann… Won the pole at Texas in April and finished 11th, finished 10th last year. Top-10 finishes in the last two Nationwide races. Y!-B7
- Brian Vickers… No top-10 finishes at Texas in 10 career starts, average finish of 16.6 over the last three. Y!-B8
- Jeff Burton… Two-time winner at Texas in ’07 and ’97. Top-10 finishes in five of the last seven races at Texas.
- Dale Earnhardt Jr…. Won at Texas in ’00. Had led laps in six straight races at Texas, average finish of 18.0 in those races.
- Joey Logano… Strong value play. Started 10th, finished 30th at Texas in April. Average start of 8.0, finish of 9.0 in two Nationwide races.
- Kevin Harvick… Strong value play. Finished 27th at Texas in April, average finish of 9.0 last year.
- Marcos Ambrose… Strong value play. DNF (engine) at Texas in April, finished 21st last year. Average finish of 13.5 in last year’s Nationwide races. Y!-C1
- Brad Keselowski… Strong value play. Two career starts at Texas, 21.0 average finish. Average finish of 7.8 over the last four Nationwide races. Started 42nd, finished third in April’s Nationwide race. Y!-C2
- Jamie McMurray… Weak value play. Finished 38th at Texas in April, average finish of 7.8 in ’07 and ’08.
- David Ragan… Weak value play. Started fourth, DNF (engine) at Texas in April, average finish of 12.0 last year. Average finish of 8.5 over the last three Nationwide races.
- Sam Hornish Jr…. Started 12th, finished 17th at Texas in April– both career bests. Average finish of 9.6 (two wins) in 13 IndyCar starts from ’00-’07. Y!-C3
- Martin Truex Jr…. Last two November races at Texas: started second, finished eighth last year; won the pole, finished third in ’07. Finished 25th at Texas in April.
- AJ Allmendinger… Average finish of 33.0 at Texas in three career starts. Y!-C4
- Elliott Sadler… Won at Texas in ’04, only one top-10 finish since. Average finish of 31.0 over the last three Texas races.
- Casey Mears… Average finish of 22.2 at Texas since ’07.
- Bill Elliott… Long shot value play. Finished 28th at Texas in April, average finish of 32.5 last year.
- Paul Menard… Average finish of 15.0 at Texas in April since ’07, 26.0 in November.
- Michael Waltrip… Average finish of 27.3 at Texas over the last three races.
- Bobby Labonte… DNF (crash) at Texas in April, average finish of 29.5 last year.
- Scott Speed… Started and finished 33rd in April, first career Cup start at Texas.
- Reed Sorenson… Average finish of 32.3 at Texas over the last three races.
- Regan Smith… Three career starts at Texas, 33.3 average finish.
- Erik Darnell… No career Cup starts at Texas. Average finish of 22.0 in six career Truck starts.
- Robby Gordon… DNF (engine) at Texas in April, average finish of 33.0 last year.
- John Andretti… Started and finished 26th at Texas in April.
- David Gilliland… Started 30th, finished 29th at Texas in April
- Max Papis… Started 39th, finished 35rd in April, first career Cup start at Texas. Crash in ’08 Truck race, ’06 Nationwide race. Two IROC starts in ‘05 and ‘06.
- Michael McDowell… Started 40th, finished 33rd in April of last year, first career Cup start at Texas. Started 15th, finished 17th in April’s Nationwide race.
- Joe Nemechek… Likely start and park. Failed to qualify at Texas in April, 37.5 average finish last year.
- Dave Blaney… Likely start and park. Started and parked at Texas in April.
- Mike Bliss… Likely start and park. Started and parked at Texas in April.
- Mike Skinner… Likely start and park. Started ninth, finished 29th in April of last year.
- Tony Raines.. Likely start and park. No Cup starts at Texas since ’07.
- Derrike Cope… Likely start and park. No Cup starts at Texas since ’06.
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