NASCAR Fantasy Racing Experts Picks: 2011 Bank of America 500

October 12, 2011

Expert Website Pick to Win Finish Experts Avg
Josh Lobdell Carl Edwards 3 12.71
Jerry Lagger One and Done Game Winner Jimmie Johnson 34 13.71
Dennis Michelsen RaceTalkRadio.com Matt Kenseth 1 12.32
Steve Wronkowicz On Pit Row Tony Stewart 8 12.97
Eric McClung KFFL Jimmie Johnson 34 13.97
Eric McGuire free agent Jimmie Johnson 34 15.45
Dan Beaver Fantasy Racing Games Jimmie Johnson 34 13.29
Matt Mercer On Pit Row Matt Kenseth 1 14.97
Adam Ansell Roto Experts no pick 44
Chris Leone On Pit Row Dale Earnhardt Jr 19 11.52
Bob Ellis NASCAR Ranting and Raving Jimmie Johnson 34 13.48
CharlieTurner On Pit Row Jimmie Johnson 34 14.68
Jordan McAbee On Pit Row Jimmie Johnson 34 12.74
Jon Rodgers Gillette Young Guns Challenge Winner Brad Keselowski 16 11.42
James Jones On Pit Row Kyle Busch 2 11.74
Mike Wells Racing4Glory.com Jimmie Johnson 34 12.74
Darren Fauth FantasyRacingCheatSheet Jimmie Johnson 34 9.94
P J Walsh FantasyNASCARPreview.com Jimmie Johnson 34 12.55
Charles Rantz ifantasyrace.com Jimmie Johnson 34 14.52

Contender or Pretender: Talladega 2

October 26, 2010

Kevin Harvick (Contender) – Do you remember Kevin Harvick being involved in any wrecks this year? None come to my mind. He’s done a remarkable job avoiding problems on the track in 2010. Also lets not forget he’s been pretty good on restrictor plate tracks this year and has won two out of the three races.

Jeff Gordon (Pretender) – The Chase hasn’t been nice to Jeff Gordon and neither has Talladega in recent years. Jeff Gordon won the first COT race at Talladega but since then he hasn’t finished better than 19th. His average finish in the last five races here is 27.2.

Kurt Busch (Contender) – Surviving the big one can be a tough task for many NASCAR drivers. Kurt Busch has never won at Talladega, but I don’t think that’s what is important to fantasy racers this weekend. Fantasy racers just don’t want their picks to crash. In nineteen races at NASCAR’s biggest track Kurt Busch has finished in the top ten thirteen times. At one point in his career he had seven straight top eight finishes.

Denny Hamlin (Pretender) – In the last nine Talladega races Hamlin’s finished in the top five three times. In his other six races he finished 20th or worse. When Hamlin comes down to Alabama he comes to race. What will he do this time, race or ride in the back?

Jimmie Johnson (Contender) – Guess who has the best five year average at Talladega? That’s right its Jimmie Johnson. Johnson races the spring and fall Talladega races differently. In the spring Jimmie decides to race, and in the fall he waits to strike. In the last three spring races his average finish is 24.6. His average finish in the last three fall races is 5.6.

Greg Biffle (Pretender) – Greg Biffle runs into trouble a lot at Talladega. He’s also run into his fair share of problems in the Chase. He’s lucky Clint Bowyer was penalized at New Hampshire other wise he would be dead last in the Chase standings. Despite his two recent top tens at Talladega I would highly recommend you avoid Biffle this race.

NASCAR Fantasy Tool 2010 Average Finish at Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte [24 degree, 1.5 mile quad-ovals]

September 1, 2010

This table show the average finish of 36 drivers in the three races at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway during the 2010 season that have been held thus far. All of these tracks are 1.5-miles long and feature 24 degrees of corner backing.

ATL TX CHR AVG
Kurt Busch 1 4 1 2.0
Kasey Kahne 4 5 12 7.0
Kevin Harvick 9 7 11 9.0
Kyle Busch 25 3 3 10.3
Matt Kenseth 2 20 10 10.7
A.J. Allmendinger 6 13 14 11.0
Ryan Newman 17 11 9 12.3
Denny Hamlin 21 1 18 13.3
Mark Martin 33 6 4 14.3
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 15 8 22 15.0
Paul Menard 5 35 8 16.0
Greg Biffle 8 10 32 16.7
Jimmie Johnson 12 2 37 17.0
Regan Smith 14 21 19 18.0
Jeff Gordon 18 31 6 18.3
Scott Speed 10 16 30 18.7
Jeff Burton 20 12 25 19.0
Elliott Sadler 19 18 21 19.3
Martin Truex, Jr. 27 9 23 19.7
Tony Stewart 13 32 15 20.0
Jamie McMurray 29 30 2 20.3
Marcos Ambrose 11 17 36 21.3
Sam Hornish, Jr. 28 19 17 21.3
Clint Bowyer 23 36 7 22.0
Bill Elliott 16 25 27 22.7
Brad Keselowski 36 14 20 23.3
Juan Pablo Montoya 3 34 38 25.0
Bobby Labonte 22 23 31 25.3
David Ragan 37 15 24 25.3
Joey Logano 35 28 13 25.3
David Gilliland 26 29 26 27.0
David Reutimann 40 37 5 27.3
Travis Kvapil 30 24 28 27.3
Carl Edwards 39 33 16 29.3
Kevin Conway 31 27 35 31.0
Robby Gordon 43 26 33 34.0

NASCAR Fantasy Tool: 2009 Average Finish at Similar Tracks - Daytona and Talladega

October 28, 2009

This table is a companion for my NASCAR Fantasy Racing Preview of the AMP Engery 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Below are 37 drivers of fantasy interest and their average finish at the two superspeedways: Daytona International Speedway and Talladega. Both tracks are also the only two to require use restrictor plates.

Also see my 2009 Average Finish at Chase Tracks Table which is very useful for planning your lineup for the rest of the season.

Daytona 1 Talladega Daytona 2 AVERAGE
Kurt Busch 10 6 5 7.0
Matt Kenseth 1 17 8 8.7
Marcos Ambrose 17 4 6 9.0
David Ragan 6 12 13 10.3
Tony Stewart 8 23 1 10.7
Elliot Sadler 5 19 10 11.3
Brad Keswlowski* 1 24 12.5
Juan Pablo Montoya 14 20 9 14.3
Greg Biffle 20 7 18 15.0
Carl Edwards 18 24 4 15.3
Regan Smith 21 15 12 16.0
Denny Hamlin 26 22 3 17.0
Reed Sorenson 9 11 33 17.7
Brian Vickers 39 8 7 18.0
Jeff Burton 28 10 16 18.0
AJ Allmendinger 3 35 17 18.3
Ryan Newman 36 3 20 19.7
Jimmie Johnson 31 30 2 21.0
Casey Mears 15 16 34 21.7
Michael Waltrip 7 21 37 21.7
Kevin Harvick 2 38 26 22.0
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 27 2 39 22.7
Martin Truex Jr. 11 33 25 23.0
Bobby Labonte 22 28 21 23.7
Joey Logano 43 9 19 23.7
Scott Speed 35 5 31 23.7
Clint Bowyer 4 39 29 24.0
David Reutimann 12 26 36 24.7
Paul Menard 38 13 23 24.7
Jeff Gordon 13 37 28 26.0
Kasey Kahne 29 36 15 26.7
Kyle Busch 41 25 14 26.7
Robby Gordon 34 29 22 28.3
Jamie McMurray 37 42 11 30.0
Mark Martin 16 43 38 32.3
Sam Hornish Jr. 32 34 32 32.7
David Stremme 33 31 35 33.0

NASCAR Power Rankings Chase Edition: Week 3

September 29, 2009

Change from last week

Who's Up

Change from last week

Who's Down

Biggest Gain This Week:

Juan Pablo Montoya: 7th to 4th

Biggest Drop This Week:

Brian Vickers: 8th to 11th

No new drivers this week. No drivers dropped out this week.
NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 1st

Mark Martin- 5 Wins, 16 Top Tens

Will Martin be the man who finally dethrones Jimmie Johnson? He's known for finishing second and being unlucky but Martin and the 5 team are capable of going toe to toe with Johnson.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 2nd

Jimmie Johnson- 4 Wins, 17 Top Tens

Johnson had a statement victory at Dover but in order to win the 2009 championship the 48 will need to have the same type of day at Kansas where they are the defending champions.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 3rd

Kurt Busch- 1 Win, 16 Top Tens

The 2 car team is a real sleeper for the championship but they are definitely an elite team this year. They don't get much attention but they are lurking and are in position to strike if the opportunity arises.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 4th

Juan Pablo Montoya- 4 Top Fives, 14 Top Tens

Ever since Montoya was let off the leash for the Chase this team has been incredible. Before the Chase they were very consistent but in the Chase they are now competitive and consistent. Those two things are what win drivers championships.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 5th

Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 19 Top Tens

Jeff Gordon was my pre-Chase championship pick and they still have plenty of time to make their move however they're already 122 points behind Martin. That's almost a full race behind and they haven't even had real problems yet

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 6th

Tony Stewart- 3 Wins, 19 Top Tens

At Dover this team finally was able to avoid problems and get their first solid finish since Watkins Glen. My opinion about this team is that their still in trouble. The 14 isn't on par with some of the other elite teams at the intermediate tracks.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 7th

Denny Hamlin- 2 Wins, 15 Top Tens

Denny finally snapped his horrible finish streak at Dover and instead replaced it with a new uncompetitive streak that now stands at 1. Teams in the Chase simply can't have this type of uncompetitive day in the Chase.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 8th

Greg Biffle- 8 Top Fives, 13 Top Tens

With how uncompetitive the Fords have been lately if they ever get into the lead at Kansas I think NASCAR should just call it race and say its to dark outside. In 2007 Biffle didn't even need to cross the line first and he still won.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 9th

Ryan Newman- 5 Top Fives, 14 Top Tens

Ryan Newman now has 5 top tens in row. Don't get to excited because I don't think Kansas, California, and Lowes will be kind to the 39 in the upcoming weeks.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 10th

Kasey Kahne- 2 Wins, 11 Top Tens

I'm amazed that Kahne first used the R6 motor at Dover in June and now in September they are back to the old R5 motor. What's next, will they bring back the Intrepid too?

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 11th

Brian Vickers- 1 Win, 13 Top Tens

The 83 can't use their excuse that Dover and New Hampshire are bad tracks for them anymore. If they're going to make some noise in the Chase the time is now.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 12th

Carl Edwards- 7 Top Fives, 11 Top Tens

I'm shocked at how uncompetitive this team was at Dover. Their average finish over the last 5 races is now a very uncompetitive 19.2. This team needs to start experimenting for next year because their finished.

NASCAR Power Rankings Chase Edition: Week 1

September 15, 2009

Change from last week

Who's Up

Change from last week

Who's Down

Biggest Gain This Week:

Jeff Gordon: 3rd to 1st

Biggest Drop This Week:

Juan Pablo Montoya: 5th to 9th

New This Week:
  • Ryan Newman
Dropped Out This Week:
NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 1st

Jeff Gordon- 1 Win, 18 Top Tens

Why will Jeff Gordon finally complete his drive for 5? Gordon has one of the best Intermediate track programs in the series and there's not one single race in the Chase that this team isn't capable of winning.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 2nd

Jimmie Johnson- 3 Wins, 15 Top Tens

Jimmie Johnson has won the past three championships but you know what, this isn't last year. The bullet proof Jimmie Johnson of old has repeatedly been making mistakes. Under a 10 race format teams must be mistake free.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 3rd

Mark Martin- 4 Wins, 14 Top Tens

Mark Martin leads the series in wins and he is also one of the most consistent drivers. The thing that scares me about Mark Martin is that he's just so unlucky. When you make a championship pick don't overlook this fact.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 4th

Kurt Busch- 1 Win, 14 Top Tens

Kurt Busch won the very first Chase and this team is capable of rallying and perhaps winning the 2009 championship. Unfortunately they will have distractions because Pat Tryson the crew chief already announced he's leaving.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 5th

Tony Stewart- 3 Wins, 18 Top Tens

Tony Stewart has been the point’s leader for the majority of the season. Stewart was the point’s leader because of consistency not because they were the fastest team on the track. The consistency of this team is gone is now so what do they have left?

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 6th

Denny Hamlin- 2 Wins, 14 Top Tens

Hamlin has scored the most points in the series over the last 6 races but in my opinion the 11 team never performs well under pressure. I've lost count of all their long untimely pit stops. Their Chase history isn't stellar either.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 7th

Kasey Kahne- 2 Wins, 10 Top Tens

Kasey Kahne is entering the Chase with a very recent win at Atlanta. The majority of the tracks in the Chase are good tracks for Kahne and with a little bit of luck Kahne might be in the championship mix at Homestead.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 8th

Brian Vickers- 1 Win, 13 Top Tens

How many times in NASCAR have we seen drivers who just manage to squeak into the Chase crumble like a cookie once their in? Vickers should be able to dodge this problem because the Chase is Intermediate track heavy so it fits his strength perfectly.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 9th

Juan Pablo Montoya- 2 Top Fives, 12 Top Tens

Montoya has been driving smart and safe all season long but now is the time for this team to step it up and take more risks. Montoya certainly has consistency figured out, but he needs top fives in order to get the big points week in and week out.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 10th

Carl Edwards- 7 Top Fives, 11 Top Tens

Carl Edwards is one of the top NASCAR drivers around but the equipment underneath him just isn't good enough. No driver has ever won the championship if they haven't already won a race earlier in the year.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 11th

Greg Biffle- 8 Top Fives, 12 Top Tens

I find it impossible to be optimistic about Roush-Fenway cars when there performances at Intermediate tracks are sub par. The 16 got off to a fast start last year in the Chase and if they contend they will need to do so again.

NASCAR Power Ranking On Pit Row

Rank: 12th

Ryan Newman- 5 Top Fives, 12 Top Tens

I expect Newman to get off to a good start in the Chase. New Hampshire and Dover are good tracks for Newman but reality will set in at Kansas.